Bacon's Rebellion

What’s the Political Calculus?

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Tyler Whitley of the Richmond Times-Dispatch informs that Tim Kaine will be debating Russ Potts twice next month, including an event after Kaine debates Jerry Kilgore in front of the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce.

I’m fascinated by the political calculations being made by the Kaine campaign.

Is this a mutually beneficial plan by the two candidates to rough up Kilgore? Rumors of collusion between Kaine and Potts have always been below the surface.

Has Kaine concluded that he must raise Potts’ profile and get him into the televised debate because Potts drains votes from Kilgore?

Or, has Kaine decided that he has to take Potts out now because a surge by Potts will come from Kaine’s column?

Any and all speculation or inside information in the comments will be welcomed.

Updates: Commonwealth Conservative has some theories on the Kaine-Potts debate. Norm reviews the issue and this BR discussion. Poli Amateur smells a “gentleman’s agreement” between Kaine and Potts.

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  1. SouthoftheJames.com Avatar
    SouthoftheJames.com

    Since Potts isn’t running for reelection in 2007 and can’t draw big donors from disgruntled GOP moderates other than Til Hazel’s crew, it wouldn’t shock me if he: “loses” the “debate” to Tim Kaine, shortly thereafter makes a “statesmanship” gesture by endorsing Kaine as the “right man to lead Virginia,” and encourages other GOP centrists to put their votes and dollars behind Kaine. Then, Kaine will proclaim that he’s got the “right ideas and Virginia values” to win independents and moderate Republicans and defeat Kilgore’s “extremism.” That’s my humble conjecture.

    — Conaway

  2. Laszlo Avatar
    Laszlo

    The Kaine-Potts debate is on because we have two candidates who are not afraid to face the citizens of Virginia.

  3. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Conaway, now there’s an intriguing scenario. Add putting Potts on the state payroll in a Kaine Administration and you have the ultimate win-win.

  4. Terry M. Avatar
    Terry M.

    I was in the Governor’s Mansion for a reception one night when Warner made a point of introducing Potts during the formal part of the evening. It was interesting in that this was before Potts announced his candidacy and it seemed very much an inside joke.

    It was shortly after Potts returned from Nevada and Warner made a comment to the effect, “After Rusty’s trip to Nevada and seeing what is going on there, he’s going to bring legalized gambling and prostitution to Virginia.”

    Potts shook his fist at him in a very good-natured way.

    Right then and there, something smelled of collusion.

  5. SouthoftheJames.com Avatar
    SouthoftheJames.com

    Will – exactly!

    Contrary to Commonwealth Conservative’s piece, this doesn’t make Kaine look all that liberal b/c Virginia voters are notorious for not paying attention to the race until after Labor Day (having the little kiddies back in school makes taxes, roads, crime and education issues more relevant). If this “debate” results in a Kaine-Potts kissfest it will agitate hardcore GOP’ers, but the average voter (esp. independents and loose Republicans) give Kaine the benefit of the doubt. Then, it’ll be up to Kilgore & Co to take him to the woodshed.

    – Conaway

  6. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    The Math:

    Virginia is a 10 point Republican state. If it were just Kilgore and Kaine, the numbers, at the beginning, at least among the ‘decideds,’ should look like this: Kilgore 55%, Kaine 45%. But campaigns are never about the ‘decideds.’ Campaigns are about the ‘undecideds,’ and how to move them.

    That’s where the Kilgore campaign is in trouble. I see no evidence that he is moving—or is going to move—the ‘undecideds.’ Neither is Kaine. But here’s the clincher: Kaine doesn’t have to move them to win—Russ Potts and Mark Warner are going to move them for him. That’s going to be the difference in November.

    Russ Potts is going to get a lot of votes in this election. Where will they come from? There are only two places—either from Kilgore or Kaine. My sense is that he’s taking them from both, but by a factor of 2-1 more from Kilgore than from Kaine. I see Potts pulling 20-21% of the total vote on election day.

    Scream, “That won’t happen!” as loud as you want to, but at least consider what that scenario does to the math, if, in fact, he’s pulling 2-1 more from Kilgore than from Kaine.

    Kilgore’s 55% goes to 41%. Kaine’s 45% goes to 38%

    The Mark:

    Enter Mark Warner, the ‘closer,’ the 800-lb gorilla in the room of this election.

    Anybody who doesn’t think Mark Warner’s good for a 2-4% premium to the Kaine side of the equation on election day is not in touch with reality. Take 3% from Kilgore’s 41% and add it to Kaine’s 38% and what you get is going to be close, in my opinion, to what happens: Kaine 41%, Kilgore 38% and Potts 21%

    Of course, I might be wrong. Of course, it is still early. But I’m not way, way wrong, and it’s not way, way early.

  7. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Potts told a group I was with three weeks ago this was coming, and it is always intersting to see old news get fresh headlines. There are I think nine groups which have invited all three candidates, but only two agreed to come — Potts and Kaine. In some cases Kilgore may actually have had conflicts, in others I’m sure he just was sticking by his tactical avoidance of sharing a stage with Russ. So there will be nine “debate the empty chair” media events.

    What is really interesting is that the first one will be the same day, and will share the media cycle, with the big Fairfax Chamber event. That was a bit rude on Kaine’s part — it is kind of assumed you won’t rain on your host’s parade.

    I’m not privy to anybody’s polling and tactics but I agree the fight is over that shrinking undecided pie and close elections like good chess games can be won by the guy who captures the middle ground. Let’s watch and see if Kaine works to push Russ off to the left in these events and breaks for that middle ground.

  8. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I wonder if the same folks would allow a Kilgore vs. Libertarian candidate debate in equal time. Seeing as Kaine and Potts will not actually be debating since they pretty much agree on most issues, it would only be fair for the Libertarians to get their say as well.

  9. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato

    Ahem Barnie. All scenarios need to be cleared by me in advance.

  10. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato

    Quite possible scenario Barnie. Potts will get votes, and the blogosphere is underestimating him at this point.

    South of the James’ scenario seems possible also.

    This is taking a big chance for Kaine, and history shows us the candidate who takes a big chance often wins. The speculation of how this will effect things reminds me of when Gilmore announced his “No Car Tax” plan in 1997. The media will be more obsessed with the Kaine-Potts debate then the Kaine-Kilgore debate.

    Let’s just all hope for the future of this Commonwealth that Kilgore’s avoiding of Potts does not cause Russ to become Governor.

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I don’t think Russ will end his effort by dropping out and endorsing Kaine. If he does that it means Kilgore is winning big and it’s a last ditch tactic. And it won’t work — folks will drift back to their usual party.

    If Potts is drawing most of his votes from Kilgore, he can only keep them out of Kilgore’s column by staying in through election day.

  12. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Barnie, you suggest the Warner “closer” factor and that’s a very plausible voting factor.

    What about the President Bush factor?

    Right now Bush is low in the polls and things aren’t looking good. As we all know, though, things can change quickly. A revitalized Bush presidential barnstorming tour through Virginia with Jerry Kilgore might be worth something. It could energize anti-Bush Democrats in Virginia, too, but I think on balance, if it happened, it would be worth a point or two.

  13. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    Good point, Will, but with Bush’s numbers where they are now–and trending down–and with Republican senators breaking publically with him on the war–and the base closing thing–I’d think the Kaine campaign would pick up the tab for his expenses if he’d come.

  14. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato

    I don’t care how popular/unpopular he is, Virginians won’t let a Texan pick their Governor.

  15. Laszlo Avatar
    Laszlo

    I’m with you Barnie. With approval ratings for Bush around 35% and heading dowm I would love to see Kilgore take Bush around the state. The “I’m with him tour”. Maybe we could get the Rev. “Hugo” Robertson to join the group.

  16. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Someday, Laszlo, you might actually add something useful to one of our discussions.

  17. GOPHokie Avatar
    GOPHokie

    I personally don’t think Potts will drop out the race, he honestly thinks he gonna win.
    I don’t know how many votes he will get, but I think anything up to 5% is all Kilgore voters, 10% is about 50-50 and above 10% he starts pulling Kaine voters 2-1.
    Barnie, if your right about Potts getting 20%, I think Kilgore will trounce Kaine. If Potts gets 5%, that is our worst nightmare.
    Now don’t everybody jump at once to discredit this.

  18. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato

    GOPHokie, I don’t think your scenario is a bad one at all. The only critique I could add is that it is hard to say where Potts pulls his votes until after we see him debate. The issues he chooses to highlight will have an impact on who he pulls. Right now it is all platitudes. “Everything” is on the table.

  19. GOPHokie Avatar
    GOPHokie

    Very good point. Lets see how it turns out.

  20. Laszlo Avatar
    Laszlo

    Thank you Mr. Vehrs. I have always looked up to you. Thank you for your support. It means a lot to me.

  21. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Sometimes the relentless attention to political motives is blinding. Having met Kaine, it seems perfectly in line with his character that he would simply get frustrated with the prima dona act on debates and simply agree to appear somewhere whether or not Kilgore does, regardless of the fallout yea or nay (which is far too unpredictable to bet anything on). Kilgore’s strategy in this race is clear and makes sense politically: meet with as few non-base voters as he can, keep himself off TV as much as possible, and just let negative direct mail and a huge Republican base do their work (meanwhile, phony token buys in Democratic base media markets to pretend like they are reaching out). Kaine, on the other hand, has to reach out to everyone to win. He has to be far more open and willing to put himself out in front of voters. Taking all comers is definately more his style than a calculated avoidance of non-cheerleading venues.

    The real effect of Potts on the race is that he can attack Kilgore, which benefits Kaine, without involving Kaine. Kilgore’s got all sorts of Gate City skeletons in his closet, a wiretapping scandal that he got out of a little too cleanly with a lot of unanswered questions, and more that a mainstream candidate would never go after directly. Potts would. The idea that Potts is in league with Kaine is pretty silly if you know the man. Potts has convinced himself that he can win this one. When it starts to sink in that he can’t, he’ll drum up lots of media by thrashing around. The other element is that Kilgore’s camp is gearing up for an extremely negative TV and direct mail campaign, but Kaine’s camp doesn’t necessarily have to go anywhere near as low (so far, all they’ve run are positive bio ads and responses to Republican ads which are themselves still almost purely positive). Once things heat up, they can run a positive Warner ad Tv and run the heck out of it. And if they get Warner on an ad saying “When I ran, I got called all sorts of names too, but I know Kaine and he’s a solid leader and manager who’s priority is to keep Virginia on top” it might even make the negative blitz a problem rather than an asset for Kilgore.

  22. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Anon 1:43, I actually was going to suggest in my post that Kaine might be doing this for noble, public service reasons, but I thought it might be met with derision. Does anybody do anything for other than political reasons?

    From my limited experience with Kaine, I agree that he might be doing this at least in part for the reasons you give.

  23. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    I wouldn’t call them noble or public service necessarily, but probably just wanting to get on with the campaign and stop bickering over conditions. That’s what I would guess. From my limited experience with politics, a lot of things end up happening more for personal and character reasons than straight out political gamesmanship than most people think. That doesn’t necessarily make them good reasons, but there are a lot of very human frustrations and oddities and quirks about politics that are the very furthest thing from robotic precision in jockeying for advantage that mainstream editorialists love to pin everything on.

  24. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    There is one way Kilgore could come out on the high road here if he doesn’t want to continue to be viewed as ignoring Potts and running from debates with him. He could modify his “15% requirement” and say that if Potts is willing to do the “honorable thing” by resigning his Senate seat he won as a Republican (since he is now running as an independent), Kilgore would then consider him a “viable independent candidate” and be willing to include him in the debates. He could even go as far as to say if Potts at least formally and publically announces his change of Party affiliation he would be willing to let him in, but Potts would have to drop this “independent Republican” nonsense and personally confirm the reality that he is in fact no longer in the GOP.

  25. TheModerate Avatar
    TheModerate

    My prediction:

    1) Kaine beats Kilgore in the first debate.

    2) Potts beats Kaine in the second debate.

    3) Potts takes the day and gets to 15% statewide.

    If Kilgore doesn’t get on the same stage with Potts & Kaine at some point most undecided voters in Northern Virginia are going to write Kilgore off.

  26. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Anon 3:09, That sounds a little too technocratic. I’m not sure what Potts chooses to call himself is really an important issue to anyone other than Republicans that want to disown the guy as payback. It’s certainly not a particularly interesting condition for debating him. As far as I know, Potts won’t have an R next to his name on the ballot, so the fundamental and official issue seems moot.

  27. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Not moot. It goes to a matter of integrity. It also puts the ball back in Potts’ court on the issue and pressures him to address the situation.

    It is hypocritical for Potts to continue to go around calling himself a Republican and allowing the press to do so when he has totally thumbed his nose at the Party’s method of choosing its candidate. If he wants out, he should be all the way out. As Russ is fond of saying “you shouldn’t do something half-way”.

  28. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato

    Pottsie is from the Sports World. This is the equivilant of a first round bye, and facing the winner tired. In the NFL playoffs over 80% of teams with a bye win their next playoff game.

  29. TheModerate Avatar
    TheModerate

    Anon 3:36 –

    Integrity? Call and ask George Fitch how much integrity exists in the Republican primary process.

    I have heard that the RPV denied Fitch access to lists, phone numbers, and everything else key to running a successful grassroots operation.

    It is hypocritical & conceited for a few ultra-conservatives that are in key positions to think that they represent a majority of the Republican Party.

  30. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Moderate,

    At least Fitch didn’t leave the Party before the primary in order to run and then claim he was still a member. If Fitch is so miffed why is he 100% in support of Kilgore now?

  31. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Parties are capable of endorsing, helping, or hurting even candidates in their own party. That’s a fact of life. Forget Fitch: the party and Kilgore’s camp basically worked to GOTV for McDonnell and Boiling, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. It’s their money, their resources, and they can use them how they wish to get the ticket they want. In some ways, it’s a lot smarter than the 4 way Lt. Gov race where Kaine and the Democrats refused to take sides and they all hammered away at each other. Party discipline is both a strength and a weakness: it keeps you on message and gets you what you want, but it also eventually produces frustrated and bitter people like Potts which can be their own headache.

  32. Chad Avatar
    Chad

    If Russ Potts gets 20% in November, I will rename my blog, “Raising Potts”.

  33. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Good analogy NLS, but if Kaine wants to include a “Wild Card” candidate round, shouldn’t he debate Potts first and then have the winner move on to Kilgore?

  34. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    WaPo headline next month: Fourth Quarter Rally Leads Potts Over Kaine

    “We just ran out of gas when he started blitzing,” says Coach Skinner

  35. TheModerate Avatar
    TheModerate

    Anon 4:09,

    Fitch is 100% Pro-Kilgore because he will likely run for Potts’ seat in two years and he wants Jerry’s support, that’s why.

  36. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato

    Anonymous, ask the Kilgore campaign. That actually sounds like a great idea. I will judge if needed to see who moves on.

  37. SouthoftheJames.com Avatar
    SouthoftheJames.com

    Either way Kaine needs this more than Kilgore because it’ll attract TV/WashPost coverage. Northern VA is not really a political or cultural community, and WTOP-FM is pound-for-pound the best regional unifier.

    Potts is basically a political nobody because inside the Beltway, Winchester’s only good for apple blossoms, Patsy Cline, and a nice Sunday drive. Neither candidate can get much of a downticket bounce and Kaine has to hope that Mark Warner gets the techie community to come out since Leslie Byrne is the most polarizing Democrat in NoVA.

    Fairfax & Prince William are the competitive counties, but if Tom Davis & John Warner come on strong for him and X factors show up (a la Colin Powell), Kilgore should be fine.

    – Conaway

  38. Not Guy Incognito Avatar
    Not Guy Incognito

    A conspiracy? Probably not. A little suspicious? Absolutely, but there’s a major wild card involved.

    Of course, I have my own thoughts that I’m too lazy to type out here. Just go on over to my site if you’d like.

  39. GOPHokie Avatar
    GOPHokie

    I dont think PWC is that competitive (I think Kilgore will win it by at least 5 points), we just have to make sure their turnout is higher than 35 freaking percent this time around.

  40. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Is there really a libertarian in the Governor’s race?

    If so, why aren’t the media falling over themselves trying to get THAT candidate into the debates?

    Pro-Lib

  41. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “If Russ Potts gets 20% in November, I will rename my blog, “Raising Potts”.”

    Well, that’s a lot catchier than “My political Career Depends on my Cheerleading skillz!” 🙂

    The idea that Potts would collude with Kaine is a nice one for those who want to think the worst of Kaine on every issue (he’s plotting! that evil man!), but defies reality to anyone that’s ever met Potts. Potts sees himself as a white knight in Virginia politics. He loathes the Gate City corruption and cronyism wing of the Republican party that Kilgore stands for enough to run off the deep end in attacking him, but he doesn’t really like Kaine either, and that’s all beside the point: Potts believes himself to be a savior, not a pawn. His ego would never allow him to play patsie, at least not at this stage of the game.

  42. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “He loathes the Gate City corruption and cronyism wing of the Republican party that Kilgore stands for enough to run off the deep end in attacking him, but he doesn’t really like Kaine either, and that’s all beside the point: Potts believes himself to be a savior, not a pawn.”

    CRONYISM!? If there was ever an example of someone who defines allegiance to cronyism, it is most definitely RUSS POTTS!

    Now I do agree that Potts probably does have a god complex, thus the savior reference is probably quite valid.

  43. Married Man Avatar
    Married Man

    I see where the scenario is coming from – I even see what Kaine thinks he is doing with this Kaine-Potts Debate Strategy (Crazy if you ask me…). Kaine believes this blurry vision of things to come – “if I take a chance… debate Potts (who really is on my side) and we bash Kilgore for everything from Abortion to Taxes to Immigration to Debates… if we do all this then we will make Kilgore look bad and us look good.” I imagine Kaine with that cheesy smirk on his face plotting the whole thing out and thinking… “I’ve really got them now… I’ll walk away looking like a moderate statesman. Potts will be crazy, because he is: crazy. I can even see Potts bailing out at the last minute to give all his “support” (the 5% or whatever he has in late October) to Kaine – but I agree with you, GOP Hokie, he actually believes he can win this thing.

    However, Barnie, I just can’t agree with your strategy.

    Potts & Kaine agree on almost every issue. They are both liberal on social issues. They are both for tax increases. Virginia voters aren’t dumb. They get it. That’s why I’m convinced that Potts will take more votes from Kaine, hands down!

    Virginia voters are smarter than that. Just because Russ Potts is an independent Republican, used to be a Republican, or is a Republican in name only – doesn’t mean that he automatically gets “republican voters” like Kilgore would. Sure he will get a few but, I for one, am Republican because of the ideas of the party not for the name, history, etc..

    When all is said and done… my prediction is this. Kilgore 48%, Kaine 38%, Potts 14%

    One more thing…

    Yeah.. Bush’s numbers aren’t what they should be – but he is a setting President… and to have the setting President barnstorm the state, well – I’d take my chances with that over the endorsement of John Kerry & Tom Daschle.

  44. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “I imagine Kaine with that cheesy smirk on his face plotting the whole thing out and thinking”

    That you spend time fanstizing about what people you don’t support are thinking (surprise! In your fantasy, they are devious and craven!) doesn’t really speak too highly of your own character.

    “Yeah.. Bush’s numbers aren’t what they should be – but he is a setting President… and to have the setting President barnstorm the state, well – I’d take my chances with that over the endorsement of John Kerry & Tom Daschle.”

    How about over Mark Warner?

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