Surplus? How About $455 Million Windfall Tax Hike

Income breakdown and average “windfall” tax in 2018 on the taxpayers who paid more. All averaged more than $220. Source: Secretary of Finance and Ernst & Young. Click to expand.

by Steve Haner

Virginia ended the last fiscal year with about $797 million more in revenue than projected, and the Northam Administration credits $455 million of that to higher taxes on about 30% of taxpayers caused by conforming to the new federal tax law. More than 700,000 tax returns stopped claiming state itemized deductions, accounting for much of that.

The tax conformity windfall amount was calculated by outside consultant Ernst and Young, Secretary of Finance Aubrey Layne told a meeting of the combined legislative money committees Tuesday. That is not the same firm hired last year to project the state tax impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Layne said he wanted a different team looking at the results.

The E&Y report is the final 23 pages of Layne’s slide presentation to the committees, here.

The first company, Chainbridge Software, LLC, estimated (here is their 2018 document) the first-year tax hike from Virginia adopting the new federal rules – with no policy changes to compensate – would be $594 million, 28% higher than E&Y reported. The 2019 General Assembly made no tax policy changes for individual taxpayers for 2018 and during the session Layne continued to express confidence in those estimates.

The smaller result measured by Ernst and Young is based on an actual comparison of 2017 and 2018 tax returns, with an effort to tease out the higher revenue due to the TCJA tax changes from the higher revenue due to income growth or asset sales. It looked only at returns filed by July 1, so individual and business returns delayed or extended for later filing are not included. That may account for some of the difference with Chainbridge, and any windfall taxes paid by them will show up in fiscal year 2020.

The report indicates individuals paid $466 million more, which was reduced by an $11 million drop in corporate income tax revenue. But E&Y had only 155 tax returns from corporate income tax filers to analyze, compared to 1,284 returns from 2017. That indicates how many corporate returns take advantage of the opportunity to extend filing. Individual taxpayers who extend also tend to be higher income.

The 200,000 late individual returns and 1,100 late corporate returns need to be wrapped in to draw firm conclusions, and those conclusions will matter because this windfall is not just a one-time thing. The General Assembly has promised to track and segregate the higher taxes caused by conformity into future years and use the revenue for future tax reform efforts.

The first of those for individuals kick in with tax year 2019, now underway. The General Assembly increased the standard deduction starting this year, from $6,000 to $9,000 for a couple. For 2019, unlike in 2018, if you do take the itemized deductions at the state level you are not limited by the $10,000 cap on state and local tax which can be deducted. Those two steps will give back much, but not all, of the ongoing windfall revenue.

The General Assembly also restored a wealth tax provision for 2019, the Pease Limitation, which had been a part of federal law, but which was eliminated by the TCJA. The details on how the state will impose that with the IRS no longer doing so need to be worked out.

For this year, of course, all Virginia taxpayers get a check instead of tax reform. Most will get $110 per individual or $220 per couple. It will return, or counteract, $431 million of the $466 million in higher individual taxes for that year. Of course, many taxpayers saw no change from conformity, some saw taxes go down, and some paid a far higher windfall tax than $220.

More than 1.9 million of the 3.4 million returns examined showed no tax change due to TCJA. (E&Y Table A-3, reproduced in part above.) Of the rest, 417,000 showed state tax was reduced and only slightly over one million paid all the higher taxes. In no single income category for that final group, from negative taxable income to taxable income over $1 million, does the $220 check cancel the tax increase.

The coming check is largely an income transfer payment from the unfortunate one million to those other 2.4 million taxpayers, coming weeks before an election.

The Chainbridge report also predicted that the impact of conformity to TCJA would fall on only a small percentage of total taxpayers, and many would see state tax reductions or no change. E&Y found that for 3,000 returns above $1 million the tax hike averaged $12,316 and for 12,000 returns between $500,000 and $1 million it averaged $3,082.

What the E&Y report, at least the portion released, does not include are any forward-looking estimates for the out years. Chainbridge had looked out six years and estimated $4.6 billion in higher taxes over that period. Other than in the first two years, the legislative action had not counteracted most of that.

If, as expected, the taxpayer checks total $431 million, that will leave only about $25 million to be held in the Taxpayer Relief Fund established by the 2019 conformity legislation and the state budget. The state budget revenue estimates consciously excluded any conformity windfall projection for either year, so additions to the Taxpayer Relief Fund in this tax cycle are also possible.

But rule one in Richmond is no General Assembly can bind the actions of the next one. The fate of Taxpayer Relief Fund will be determined in 2020.

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9 responses to “Surplus? How About $455 Million Windfall Tax Hike

  1. Steve and I have differed on how much of the windfall tax revenues should be rebated to taxpayers and how much should be dedicated to one-time uses such as building up reserves. But we agree on one thing: Let’s be transparent about how much money Northam’s tax policy is keeping for the state and how much it is giving back. And let’s be honest about what it is: a tax hike. Thanks for providing this data, Steve.

  2. Actually, rebates are BS and I want the money used to make permanent changes in the tax code, mainly through an even higher standard deduction. But the constant pounding on this blog helped make the rebates happen, and they beat a stick in the eye.

  3. This is creeping socialism, pure and simple. Let’s be honest – Northam is a practiced liar. He was in the blackface photo then he wasn’t. He doesn’t know why his nickname was Coonman. He doesn’t know how those photos got on his yearbook page. This isn’t a tax hike. This rebate isn’t a socialist wealth transfer. Expanding Medicaid didn’t involve a de-facto tax on people receiving medical care. If Ralph Northam’s lips are moving you should assume he’s lying – by commission or by omission. So, where are the Republicans in Virginia calling out “Tax and Spend” Northam on his deceit? They’re part and parcel of it. Take the tax receipt con you illustrate in your chart and map it to Virginia’s regions. How does the money flow? It flows from urban and suburban areas to rural and small town areas. In other words, straight into the areas inhabited by those self-reliant, Scots-Irish, mountaineering, salt of the earth people Virginia Republicans call their base. The Republicans in Virginia are just as quick to buy votes by giving away “other people’s money” as the Democrats. Let’s get that rural broadband program funded. The videos on Pornhub are pixellating in Hooterville!

    Once upon a time Republicans in Virginia stood for restraint in regulation, small government, equality of opportunity and people taking ownership for their own chances in life. No more. Today Republicans stand for nothing more than a truly bizarre set of backwards looking social mores. Keep abortion and marijuana possession criminal. Ban gay marriage. But tax and spend, tax and spend, tax and spend … there are votes to buy!

  4. Well, let’s be REAL honest and say that Northam is not the “decider”. The GOP-controlled GA is….

    Yes, Northam is “spinning” – no question – and yes if he can convince the GA to think his way – then you can say it’s HIM alone but until then…..

    The Gov, for the most part, can only LEAD people to where they want to go…. if he goes in a different direction – unless he(she) owns the GA lock, stock and barrel , forget it.

    Would the Dems spend more money on education, health care, transportation, etc?

    YEP! but look at the GOP -they PREFER to underfund important priorities that would SAVE money – such as the MedicAid Expansion and transportation infrastructure…. etc.

  5. With each passing year, it will be harder to attribute a portion of tax revenue increases as a result of conformity, as opposed to the result of a growing economy. (All income tax money is green and fungible.). Soon, I predict, maybe even next session, the Taxpayer Relief Fund, will disappear. Sorry, Steve; the Republicans blew it. They should have used the interim last summer to come up with a tax reform package to compete with the Governor’s plan, rather than wait until the Session when there was a time crunch.

    • You are wise in the ways of Richmond….hey, my friends and I handed it to them on a silver platter, an approach with long term political appeal. You read all about it right here on this blog. I was on the team that won the majority back in the 80s- others will get the credit for losing it now.

  6. I was one of those hit with a tax bill, whereas before I got a tiny bit back or paid a tiny bit. Now I lose enough money to make a dent in my paycheck, which hasn’t moved up less than $5K in over 9 years. While trying to pay for fixing items on a house, an older car, etc. now it is going to take that much longer for me to do anything. I’m doing house repairs, etc. everything I can as much as myself. This doesn’t put into the economy. I eat out less, shop with coupons, etc. So I can see a coming recession when those of us who were paying off things and putting into their homes and the like are getting hit for no reason. I have worked hard for the little postage stamp I have. There is only so much money going around before we stop putting into the economy and that’s exactly what is going on now.

  7. re: ” the Republicans blew it. They should have used the interim last summer to come up with a tax reform package to compete with the Governor’s plan,”

    Yup. The GOP in Virginia is lazy and prefers the blame game to putting up real competitive plans and programs to Virginians. Used to be, Conservatives were committed to “better” govt. Now, it’s all about demonizing the Dems and Liberals …….

    re: ” I’m doing house repairs, etc. everything I can as much as myself. This doesn’t put into the economy.”

    well, actually it DOES. Taxes collected go to pay for salaries and services that go into the economy – the same way they would if they went for salaries and services the taxpayer would spend on.

    The difference is what the taxpayer would spend on versus what the government spends on – obstensibly in the taxpayers behalf.

    But the idea that taxes go into a black hole to disappear forever from the economy is a common belief of many and the underlying basis for claims that taxes cut will “spur” the economy while tax increases will harm the economy.

    A simple thing – taxes pay for State Police and they, in turn, buy homes and cars and food , etc … their paychecks go right back into the economy the same way it would if the taxes were not collected and the State Police did not have troopers.

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