Bacon's Rebellion

Media General, parent company of newspapers in Richmond, Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Danville, Bristol and several smaller Virginia communities, has reported that 3Q revenues and earnings will far short of targets. I cannot imagine a scenario in which the news gathering function at these newspapers does not suffer.

Publishing division revenues in August increased only 2.9 percent, considerably short of the five or six percent anticipated. According to a Media General press release issued today, the disappointing revenue outlook reflected weakness in “retail” advertising and circulation. (In other words, newspapers continue to lose readers), as well as higher-than-expected expenses.

If Media General remains true to form, it will issue emergency edicts to all operating units to cut costs by clamping down on new hires, curtailing travel, saving paperclips, etc. Enjoying no exemption, newsrooms may be tempted to reduce staff through attrition. The trends affecting Media General apply also to Landmark Communications (owner of the Norfolk and Roanoke newspapers), the Washington Post and the independents.

I agree with comments on my previous “Who Will Report the News” post that the Internet, laptops and other technology have improved newsroom productivity. But I maintain that reporting and writing remains a labor-intensive business. The only meaningful way to contain costs is to reduce pay (a real morale killer) or tighten staff size. Virginia’s journalistic future (in which I take no pleasure, not even schadenfreude, trust me): Fewer enterprise stories, fewer in-depth pieces, more rewriting of press releases, and more he said/she said reporting.

Let me make one thing very clear up front: Next to public safety, education is the most important thing that the Commonwealth of Virginia can spend money on. Having an educated citizenry is a prerequisite for prospering in a global economy. But that doesn’t mean we can afford to write the education establishment a blank check.

According to a story filed by Tyler Whitley in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Tim Kaine, Jerry Kilgore and Russ Potts all attended a forum at Virginia Commonwealth University yesterday to discuss education policy. All three candidates presented laundry lists of expenditures they propose for K-12 and higher education. Unless Whitley left something out of his bullet-list of initiatives, not one candidate offered a single idea for cutting costs, reallocating funds or holding the educational establishment more accountable.

Unbelievable. Gov. Mark R. Warner has pumped up spending on education by hundreds of millions of dollars a year, the federal government is spending record sums on K-12 support, and Virginia’s candidates are promising more, more, more.

I never expect much from most politicians, but I do expect more from our business and civic leaders. Sadly, most of them have become vapid cheerleaders for more spending. Give me an E! Give me a D! Give me a U…. What’s that spell? If our business leaders ran their own corporations they way they want to run the state — spending recklessly on new products and services without insisting upon productivity, results and accountability — they’d get hammered in the marketplace. The intellectual bankruptcy in Virginia’s leadership cadres is just appalling. I fear for the future of our Commonwealth.

RT-D Jeff Schapiro wrote, “Through press secretary Delacey Skinner, Kaine, the Democratic nominee, indicated that he, too, believes Virginia government should get tough with businesses that put illegal immigrants on the payroll.

‘If we discover a business is willfully violating immigration laws by hiring illegal immigrants, they should not be rewarded with state benefits, such as contracts,’ Skinner said.”

Oh, please! Democrat Tim Kaine is Pro-Herndon Day Labor center but against illegal immigration?

And the flip-flopping list goes on and on and on…

Pro-revenue but anti-property tax…
Pro-choice but anti-abortion…
Pro-gun but pro-Restrictions on Hand guns…
Tough on Crime but anti-Death penalty…
Pro-Gay & Lesbian but against same-Sex Marriages…
Pro-transportation but pro-Environment and controlled growth…

Exactly what does the flipping Democrat Tim Kaine stand for?

~ the blue dog

The Washington Post has several clips from yesterday’s debate up on its website, starting with the opening statements. We don’t need no live TeeVee. Judge for yourself if Kilgore should have seen Russert’s punch coming. Kaine on faith and the death penalty. Closing statements.

Jerry Kilgore doesn’t think that local authorities in Herndon should make life easier for illegal immigrants by setting up a special day-labor center for them. He’s repeatedly made it clear that his problem is not with immigrants, it’s with illegal immigrants.

According to Tim Kaine, that makes Kilgore “mean spirited.”

According to Tyler Whitley’s account of the Kaine-Kilgore debate yesterday, Kaine said: “There is a mean-spiritedness to your position. What Virginians need is a leader who is about bringing people together, who doesn’t run around Virginia beating up on 40 percent to get to 60 percent.”

Huh? Excuse me, who comprises the 40 percent that Kilgore supposedly was beating up on? Illegal immigrants don’t make up that large a percentage of Virginia’s population…. yet. And how does it constitute “beating up” someone to acknowledge that they’re in this country illegally? Are the police being “mean spirited” when they put Americans in jail for breaking the law?

Just how, exactly, does Kaine propose “bringing people together” on the issue of illegal immigration? What would a sweet-spirited approach to illegal immigrants look like? Looking the other way? Holding hands and singing Kumbaya? Opening welcome centers? Or maybe showing some old-fashioned Southern hospitality — “Ya’ll come back now. And make sure to bring your family and friends!”

I did not see the Kaine-Kilgore debate yesterday, so my comments are based on Tyler Whitney’s account in today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch. But it looks to me like Jerry Kilgore’s biggest enemy wasn’t Tim Kaine, it was Jerry Kilgore.

According to Whitley: “Kilgore repeatedly tried to turn the discussion to the $1.4 billion tax increase passed by the General Assembly with the support of Kaine and Gov. Mark R. Warner. ‘It wasn’t necessary, and we didn’t ask the people,’ Kilgore said.”

“But when asked, he said he would not try to roll back the increase.” (My italics.)

Question for Kilgore: If the tax increase was so unnecessary that you flog Tim Kaine with it every chance you get, and if Virginia is enjoying a budget surplus that far surpasses the size of the tax increase, then why the heck won’t you try to to roll back the increase? If you’re not willing to return some or all of the tax increase to taxpayers, then your attacks on Kaine amounts to nothing more than ritualistic campaign rhetoric. If you’re not willing to roll back the tax increases, nothing significant sets you apart from Kaine.

Speaking as one who thinks that we should roll back the tax increase, I see the voter’s choice as between two candidates who are both willing to accept the 2004-tax-increase status quo. The only issue is whether they’ll support new taxes. Kilgore says he wouldn’t increase taxes again without going first to the voters. Big whoop. That tells us nothing about how he’ll handle the relentless pressure for spending increases. Rather than confronting the issues, he’ll just pass the buck to the voters. What a cop-out. What a wimp!

Amerigroup Corp., one of Virginia’s fastest growing companies, administers managed care plans for Medicaid and Medicare programs. Based in Virginia Beach, the company is finally doing business in its home state, taking on responsibility for 24,000 Medicaid patients in Northern Virginia, mostly young mothers and children.

The company’s forte is preventive care. The company has developed effective techniques for identifying and treating medical problems of poor people before they deteriorate into full-fledged medical crises that require expensive emergency-room treatment. Programs focus on prenatal care, treating asthma and other ailments common among the Medicaid population.

According to Marjolijn Bijlefeld, writing in Virginia Business magazine, studies have shown significant savings in other states. “In Ohio, for example, inpatient costs decreased 27 percent under Medicaid managed care. In Wisconsin, the savings were estimated at nearly 11 percent.”

Virginia needs to aggressively implement preventive care across the state. Given the enormous size of the Medicaid budget, savings could amount to tens of millions, perhaps hundreds of millions, of dollars per year. We don’t need to cut poor people out of the program; we don’t need to short-change doctors and hospitals. We simply need to re-think our model for delivering health government-backed health care.

Not everybody agrees with Jim Bacon that all new roads are roads to ruin. Witness the editorial attitude of the Danville Register and Bee today, thankful for the economc growth spurred by a particular project. Compare that to the jeremiad unleashed on Route 288 in a new Bacon’s Rebellion article posted after the most recent distribution of the e-zine. All those houses, all those middle class families moving to western Chesterfield, all those new stores and jobs and parks and schools. Disgusting, isn’t it? The end of civilization as we know it.

The article would lead you to believe that Route 288 originated about the time of the Westcreek development and the proposed Motorola plant, but it had been on the planning table for 20 years prior to that. The route had to change, and 288 couldn’t fit exacly with I-295, because of all the development while the project was delayed. But the idea of a limited access loop around Richmond was hardly a radical idea, and if economic growth was one of the goals for that plan, nobody denied it. It used to be that creating jobs, wealth and home ownership were the conservative version of the social gospel. But the “Road to Ruin” crowd is not conservative at all, unless you thought the Luddites were conservatives.

I don’t think this gulf can be breached. Some people just honestly believe in the depths of their soul that if you don’t build the roads, the growth won’t come. Some of us believe that in the future mobility has to be the measure of value, planning has to be better and alternative modes need to be better integrated, but doing nothing — or doing nothing until some social utopia is achieved — is the real “Road to Ruin.”

On the Road to Ruin blog, I characterize Sen. Russ Potts’ transportation plan as a parody of itself — a document so lopsided in favor of taxes and new construction that even the Road Building lobby itself wouldn’t have the nerve to present it. For the masochists among you, I have included a link to a copy of the plan.

According to an article in today’s Virginian-Pilot, WHRO, Hampton Roads’ public television station, has cut its staff from 103 to 79 — 23 percent — over the past four years. Departed employees include engineers, announcers, fundraisers and producers, some with 20-plus years of service. Reports the Pilot: “Critics say the station has hollowed out its capability to produce local programming, which they view as central to its public mission.”

I suspect that WHRO is not alone. The Mainstream Media, both broadcast and newspapers, suffer tremendous cost-cutting pressures as audiences slowly shrink, advertising revenues stagnate and media corporations seek to prop up profit margins to appease shareholders. I would hypothesize that the newsrooms of Virginia’s newspapers and television stations — at least those outside of fast-growing markets in Northern Virginia — are smaller today than they were 10 years ago. Does anyone have any hard data to confirm or falsify that?

If I’m right, and if the trends continue, and if newsroom expenses continue to get cut — and how can they not, with the Internet and Cable TV continuing to drain audiences — who will report the community the news? Are we witnessing the decline of the Golden Age of American journalism? Or will the Internet find a business model to support news coverage of its own, and step in to fill the void?

Today’s Washington Post is first out of the box with a post Labor Day poll and it shows Jerry Kilgore up by 7, with 51 percent, among likely voters. When all the registered voters they talked to (self-reported) are included the lead was 4, with Kilgore at 45 and Tim Kaine at 41. Potts was at 4-5 percent in both samples. You have to do a bit of digging to find that 51 percent number, because Shear concentrates on the smaller 45-41 lead among “all” registered voters. Some of us kind of doubt there will be a 100 percent turnout, Mike. Not everyone who tells a pollster they are registered really is.

Among the most engaged likely voters the “undecided” is down to 2 percent, leaving little room for Kaine or Potts to grow without taking votes away from Kilgore or each other. Strap on your body armor — here come the attacks.

The Post also included a summary of the results, which is where you can find the 51 percent figure in question 4. It does not report any of the demographics on its sample or the crosstabs. In the past the Post has weighted parts of its sample to force the demographics to fit what it expects the electorate to look like on Election Day. But it would be interesting to see just what the breakdown is among the various voting blocks.

Paul Goldman, long-time Doug Wilder confidant and “Secretary for Change” for the city of Richmond, is known for his occasional e-mail missives, which I’ve dubbed Goldmangrams. Here’s his latest, which is unusually succinct:

My good friend Larry Sabato, head of the UVA’s Center for Politcs and highly regarded seer of things campaign-wise, is known for his one-liners: but right now, he is playing second fiddle to the newly quotable Professor Robert Holsworth of the upcoming VCU public administration and politics team.

New technology yes, but the same ole, same ole, for sure, whether electronically transmitted, or written by a quill pen and sent by horseback.

Hugh Keogh, President and CEO of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, just e-mailed the following to its membership. He had shared it earlier in the week with the local chamber executives, and with this posting perhaps we can reach an even wider audience. The letter is from his Mississippi counterpart, Blake Wilson. (No specific advice on help has been received from the Louisiana Chamber)

Friends.

For more information, go to www.mec.ms. We will keep this constantly updated.

Although my team has been working non-stop since the disaster, this is the first day we have had email capability and power at our office. The storm was a Category 1 when it hit Jackson, which is 200 miles from the coast.

While this is heartbreaking…the outpouring of support from around this nation has been very heartwarming.

Keep the faith.

I am difficult to reach because we are helping coordinate private-sector relief functions. However my team can reach me directly — please work through them — Peggy Howard is coordinating — 1-800-748-7626.

All you fellow capitalists and entrepreneurs out there…. we all have a shared interest in getting women entrepreneurs (and other small businesses) hurt by Katrina back in business ASAP:

The Center for Women’s Business Research estimates that as of 2004, nearly half (48%) of all privately-held businesses in the U.S. are owned 50% or more by women, for a total of 10.6 million enterprises. … Since 1997, the Center estimates that women-owned firms have grown at nearly twice the rate of all firms (17% vs. 9%). Growth in employment by women-owned firms has been even more dramatic, 24% compared to 12% for all firms. More….

The National Association of Women Business Owners, a McLean, Virginia based association, has launched an initiative to do just that — an iniative that would not have been possible in the days before web-based applications and WYSIWYG composing.

Leading a collaboration with other organizations serving women entrepreneurs, NAWBO has established a grant fund to make cash grants quickly (can you say “no red tape”?) for computers, business cards, and other things necessary to do business, and has launched a website to accept online donations and facilitate the exchange of resources between businesses. The website also has a blog (!) that will allow folks involved in the collaboration to share stories of hope and opportunity as our colleagues rebuild the economy of the Gulf coast.

There is no question that, without new user friendly technology, NAWBO and others could not have come together to establish a national network, a community of purpose, and an efficient fundraising mechanism all in less than a week. With help from Blacksburg, Virginia based Click and Pledge, NAWBO was accepting online donations in less than 24 hours from thought to execution!

It is a brave new world. We just need to be sure that we keep harnessing the power of technology to good purpose.

Despite higher taxes, a soaring residential real estate market, and an overheating labor market in Northern Virginia, the Old Dominion’s “Cost of Doing Business Index” actually has declined in relation to other states, according to the Milkin Institute’s 2005 rankings. Virginia ranked 24th in the country, with an index 5.3 percentage points below the national average. Last year, Virginia ranked 21st.

Hawaii and New York scored at the top of the list both this year and last. Maryland ranked 17, while North Carolina ranked 30. The Index measures wage costs, taxes, electricity costs and real estate costs for industrial and office space.

See the list.