Bacon's Rebellion

Two days ago, the House leadership issued a press release blasting the Warner adminstration for “eliminating $290 million in dedicated transportation funding and eliminating another $100 million for water quality improvements” from a preliminary version of the 2006-08 state budget.

Richard Brown, Gov. Warner’s director of the Department of Planning and Budget, wrote back, explaining that it was all just a misunderstanding. The base budget that the House leadership reacted to, he explained, “is a preliminary number, and does not represent a funding commitment, proposal, or recommendation from or by anyone. … The base budget is prepared by the staff of the Department of Planning and Budget as a technical exercise in beginning to develop a biennial budget. It has no other significance.”

There would seem to be two possible explanations for this mini-flap:

(1) The House leadership knows exactly what it’s doing, and it’s testing the Warner administration or otherwise drawing a line in the sand, to say, “Don’t go there.”

(2) The House leadership doesn’t know what it’s doing, misunderstood the significance of the “base budget,” and overreacted — foreshadowing more confusion in the budget negotiations to come.

Does anyone else have a theory?

In my most recent column, “It’s the Global Economy, Stupid,” I chastised Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore for failing to acknowledge the importance of Virginia’s economic competitiveness in the global arena. Specifically, I stated: “Unfortunately, not one candidate for statewide office has demonstrated in public statements even a passing familiarity with the book [“The World is Flat”] or the economic trends that it documents.”

Larry Roberts, chairman of the Kaine for Governor campaign, has informed me that I am quite mistaken. He says:

Tim Kaine read the book earlier this year, has mentioned it in a number of speeches, and regularly talks about the need to move our education policies beyond competence to excellence because of the challenges of the global economy and, specifically, the resources countries such as India and China are devoting to education – especially in science and math. He talked specifically about the importance of education in addressing competition from Bangalore and Shanghai in the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce debate with Jerry Kilgore. He also talks consistently about the global links Virginia has (envied by other states) in Dulles Airport (from where one can easily reach virtually every continent) and the Port of Hampton Roads.

In his favor, Kaine also talks about reforming land use, an important theme in my column. But he’s on the wrong side of the tax debate. Oh, well, two out of three ain’t bad.

My apologies to Mr. Kaine. I made an assumption, it was incorrect, and I am happy to correct any misperception I created. Now, if only we could get Virginia’s political reporters and editorial writers to pick up on the theme….

Remember Steve Chapman, the 27-year-old conservative who challenged Del. Harry Parrish, R-Manassas, for the Republican nomination… The guy who was indicted in the middle of the campaign for voter fraud, for allegedly lying about his address on the voter registration form?

Well, according to the Manassas Journal Messenger, the charges have been dropped.

Chapman was relieved but not surprised. “We’re excited,” he said, “but I always said these charges were trumped up.”

The Virginia Senate’s START transportation task force held its first meeting Tuesday on the VCU campus. It was mostly a dry affair of Powerpoint presentations, which you can find here. A Daily Press report on the event is here. Senator Charles Hawkins started with a strong “we can’t keep doing things this way” speech that was right out of the Bacon’s Rebellion phrase book, but he also stressed that the purpose of the legislative and citizen panel is to produce a bill — not some report that will join others on the shelf.

A couple of highlights:

A top analyst from the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission reported on his review of the VTRANS 2025 projection of $203 billion in future transportation “needs”, which is $108 billion beyond the projected revenue. He poked some holes in the assumptions, especially the use of the highest end rail and transit options and the cost to build some roads that really cannot be built. But he didn’t argue with the projections of growing congestion and gridlock that underlie the assumptions, and in some areas he said the VTRANS data might be too low. My read: He gave the VTANS document a decent grade, if not an A. “It puts you in the ball park,” was his comment in response to questions.

The emotional high came from Phil Shucet, who was tasked with reporting on the transportation challenges in his home area of Hampton Roads. He had some frightening projections on the tunnels, which already produce one five-mile back up per day on average. No longer a state employee, he also let the legislators have it with a major broadside. He said it is their job to do something. People don’t want to pay more, but they will hate life in the congestion to come.

“You were not elected to promise without knowledge. You are elected and you have a duty to deliver promise based on knowledge. Isn’t it ironic that the very network established to give people their freedom is now stealing that same freedom from them?”

Is this foreshadowing of what awaits newsrooms in Virginia?

Philadelphia Newspapers Inc., publisher of the Inquirer and Daily News, has announced plans to cut newsroom staffs by about 100 positions, or 16 percent, through buyouts or layoffs, blaming revenues and circulations. Meanwhile, the New York Times will cut 500 jobs, or about four percent of its work force, coming on top of 200 slashed earlier this year; another 160 jobs will be cut from the Boston Globe and related operations, including 35 newsroom jobs. And the San Francisco Chronicle, has bought out 90 employees.

Undoubtedly some of these job cuts reflect productivity gains, particularly in printing, administration and newspaper delivery. But, as I’ve argued before, news gathering is a labor-intensive business — journalism jobs can’t be automated any more than legal or medical jobs. We’re witnessing a real retrenchment in the news gathering apparatus.

This represents a great opportunity for blogs — but only if we can find a business model that actually generates revenue!

The public got the first inklings of Gov. Mark R. Warner’s budget proposals for the next biennium when disagreements with the House of Delegates erupted in the form of a press release from Speaker William J. Howell and House Appropriations Chairman Vincent F. Callahan.

In the statement, released late Tuesday afternoon, Howell and Callahan blasted the Warner administration for “eliminating $290 million in dedicated transportation funding and eliminating another $100 million for water quality improvements” in the 2006-08 state budget that the Governor is preparing.

The Governor has not at this time issued a release of his own, and I’m in no position to evaluate what’s going on here. But House leaders are clearly upset by proposals to sweep away their signature contributions to the current (fiscal 2006) budget. Read the press release.

I suspect the ad buy is pretty light so you might miss it (I have so far), but the Potts TV ad is pretty damn funny and a classic name ID spot. You can see it here. If that doesn’t work just go his main web site at www.russpotts.com. It may not move votes or change minds but a little humor at times like these is always appreciated.

As pessimistic as I am about governance in Virginia (see the previous post), I do see occasional rays of hope. The House of Delegates is exploring ways to run government more efficiently, and it’s doing some pretty good work. If there’s any hope for controlling government spending in Virginia, citizens will have to look to the House. The State Senate, by contrast, has become a wholly owned subsidiary of Virginia’s special interests and has shown no interest in anything but raising taxes to feed those interests.

A House Republican task force is developing innovative strategies for moderating increases in Medicaid spending while ensuring the quality of care for Virginia’s poor. Options include health savings accounts, disease-management programs, creating incentives for long-term care insurance, and cracking down on those who transfer their assets to their children so they can throw themselves on the public dole.

For details, read the column published by Del. Phil Hamilton, R-Newport News, in the current edition of Bacon’s Rebellion.

In a Sunday piece in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Michael Hardy wrote an up-beat assessment of the choices awaiting Gov. Mark R. Warner when he writes his final budget this fall. Noting the extraordinary rise in revenues, Hardy noted, Warner “will have a big pile of new money to spend in his farewell budget.”

Let that sink in. A big new pile of money to spend.

Hardy went on: “[Warner] can recommend major spending on critical state services, such as public schools and Medicaid, and maintain car-tax relief at 70 percent.”

Nowhere in the story does Hardy explore the possibility of returning any of the money to taxpayers in the form of tax cuts. Among the sources he consulted for the story, apparently, that option is not even under consideration.

It’s quite clear: No political will exists to complete the car-tax phase out, now stuck at 70 percent, or to give money back to taxpayers through any other mechanism. The 2004 tax hikes are now set in stone. The pressure no longer exists to control state spending through restructuring or reform, and politicians’ wish lists know no bounds. General Fund spending will continue to grow by leaps and bounds. And that doesn’t even include the prospect for a transportation-related tax hike in 2006.

The political culture of Virginia is transmogrifying into something new and hideous.

Due to an increasing volume of “comment spam,” I have activated the “word verification” feature of the Bacon’s Rebellion blog. When you submit a comment, you will be asked to fill in a series of letters contained in a display that the auto-spammers cannot read. I apologize for the inconvenience.

Curse the spammers! I wish upon them a prolonged and agonizing death!

The Daily Press carried an AP story on Sunday, Sept. 18th, about the former Associate Director of Equity and Diversity for George Mason University getting sentenced to eight years in prison. The Diversity expert had been videotaping himself having sex with several young men in his home and campus office and then trying to blackmail them. Interestingly, the Fairfax County judge suspended six of the fourteen-year sentence for manufacturing child pornography, possessing child pornography and extortion. Note that he was not convicted of sodomy with minors, even though four young men testified that they were under 18 when they had sex with him — thanks to the SCOTUS, especially Sandra Day O’Connor, overturning ‘settled’ law like Roe v Wade a mere 17 years after SCOTUS kept sodomy a state issue as the Constitution indicates.

Now, I didn’t republish this fellow’s name because he isn’t the issue. This criminal could have come from any walk of life. Which is precisely why, if he had been a Roman Catholic priest, this story would not have been on page B3. A set of legitimate questions would have been raised, no, trumpeted, by the MSM. So, here in the blogosphere a different set of legitimate questions should be raised for this fellow, even if it isn’t on the MSM agenda.

1. What ‘class of protected persons’ did this fellow represent? Was he an Associate Director of Equity and Diversity because of his ethnicity or sexual behavior?

2. If he was hired based on his expertise on a protected class of persons’ sexual behavior, how did GMU distinguish between sexual diversity and perversity? Or not?

3. What does the Associate Director for Equity and Diversity do 40 hours a week? How does that help build educational excellence at GMU?

4. What is the pay of the Associate Director? How many are there? Other staff and their pay? How much does the Director make? What does this person do 40 hours a week?

5. How much is the total, loaded pay rate, travel, office, utilities, etc. cost for the office of Equity and Diversity at GMU?

The General Assembly should deduct the cost of this office, however few millions, from our Commonwealth support to GMU. Do the same for other colleges and universities. Next budget cycle if they still have those offices, double the deduction from their support.

The Sept. 19, 2005 edition of Bacon’s Rebellion has been published. Click here to read it.

Kudos to Mike Hardy at the Richmond Times-Dispatch for staying on top of the latest state revenue reports. Tax collections for July and August, the first two months of the 2006 fiscal year, grew 17 percent over the same period last year.

Makes you wonder if apologists for the 2004 tax increase, who predicated the hike on forecasts of a long-term, “structural” revenue shortfall, will ever admit they were wrong. The Warner administration underestimated revenues in 2004 (up 7.9 percent), and again in 2005 (up 14.8 percent, thanks in part to the tax hikes). Now, it looks like they’ve underestimated again.

The 17 percent growth rate is unsustainable, but even if it moderates, it will be bigger than the budget calls for, and we’re bound to see another giganzo revenue surplus…. unless the General Assembly spends it all first.

The latest Rasmussen Poll shows that Tweedle Dum (Spend Mo’ Money) holds a narrow, three-point lead over Tweedle Dee (Spend Lots Mo’ Money). The race is narrowing, and Tweedle Dim (Spend Mo’ Money and Raise Taxes, Too) remains a non-factor with a mere five percent tally.

Of greater interest to me is the ranking of the issues that the survey of 500 likely voters thought were most important. The issues are (drum roll, please)….

Economy – 28 %
Health care – 15 %
Education – 14 %
Taxes – 11 %
Transportation – 8 %
Immigration – 7 %
Same-Sex Marriage – 6%
Gun Ownership Laws – 5%
Abortion – 3 %

Bottom line: The vocal Democratic Left and Republican Right may be fixated on cultural wedge issues, but Virginia voters aren’t. Virginians are concerned about pocketbook issues, with the economy (jobs, wages, salaries, entrepreneurial opportunities) ranking at the top. Health care comes in second, with education and taxes trailing behind.

Transportation, the signature issue of Sen. Russ Potts (er, I mean Tweedle Dim), the obsession of the Virginia state Senate and the desideratum of special interest groups, dragged in with only 8 percent. It’s hard to swallow, but I’ll admit it: Taxes, my pet obsession scored only No. 4 on the list, and the poll indicated that 46 percent said that the 2004 tax increases were good for the state.

Clue to the candidates: If you want to win over voters, start talking about economic development and health care!

Those of you in NOVA who thought that rail to Dulles would suck away all transportation dollars and put a stop to new highway construction, you must love Tim Kaine’s new transportation proposal. Thanks to Del. Tim Hugo for catching this one during the debate sponsored by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce earlier this week, as this has not been reported in any press accounts I have seen.

Here’s what Tim Kaine had to say on transportation:

“A couple of things on mass transit. I believe the state funding formulas are such that they should be adjusted so that public and mass transit options receive the same subsidy percentages as road projects.”

So if you thought that insufficient funds are now being expended for highway construction, under a Kaine administration even less money will be made available for this purpose. So even though less than about 13% of all commuters are using any form of mass transit, Tim Kaine is prepared to more than triple the money available for mass transit at the expense of highway construction.

According to Del. Hugo, the current breakdown from the Transportation Trust fund is as follows: 14.7% of the revenues get set aside for mass transit while 78.7% get set aside for highway construction. Under a Kaine administration, both mass transit and highway construction would equally receive 46.7%.

If you thought we’re facing a gridlock now, wait and see what happens under a Kaine administration!

And what about our rural communities? They won’t get any money for mass transit, while their allocation of highway construction dollars would be reduced significantly.

Does any of this make sense? It obviously does to Tim Kaine—which goes to show how much out-of-touch he is with Virginia’s needs and priorities.

To be fair about this, I’m also not thrilled about Jerry Kilgore’s transportation plan. The Regional Transportation Authorities proposed by Jerry Kilgore make sense from the perspective of local planning, but they’re a terrible idea because Kilgore is talking about giving them independent taxing authority. It’s mind-boggling that a self-proclaimed fiscal conservative candidate—one who purportedly believes in lower taxes and smaller government—would advocate giving unelected and unaccounted bureaucrats taxing authority. Go figure…