Bacon's Rebellion

In a recent ad countering Jerry Kilgore’s campaign that Tim Kaine wants to raise the gas tax, the Kaine campaign makes the following statement: “Fact, Kilgore, as a paid lobbyist, tried to raise natural gas taxes by 66 percent.”

I don’t know where the Kaine campaign got its information, but there’s one fellow, Frank Kilgore, a Wise County resident, who thinks he knows. He’s hopping mad, and he’s blasting out e-mails to let people know about it.

Issue One. Frank K. (no relation to Jerry) believes that Kaine ad is referring to a request by Buchanan County a few years ago to increase the gas severance license tax by an additional one percent. That tax is on producers, almost all of them big corporations, not consumers. However, the vast majority of Virginians, who aren’t from Southwest Virginia and have never heard of a gas-severance tax, would assume that the “natural gas tax” is a consumer tax. The Kaine ad conspicuously ignored the distinction.

Issue Two. The “gas tax,” which funds public improvements and economic development projects, is widely supported. Says Frank Kilgore: “There is, I guarantee, 100 percent support among coalfield voters for these coal and gas local revenues.”

Issue Three. Wrong Kilgore. Jerry Kilgore never lobbied for the gas tax increase — Frank Kilgore did, when he was assistant county attorney.

The (Jerry) Kilgore campaign confirms Frank Kilgore’s account. Says the Kilgore campaign website: “Kilgore served as a lobbyist for Buchanan County and advised … against seeking an increase in the gas severance tax. This is not a tax on consumers, rather a tax on companies that extract natural gas from the ground. Kilgore predicted the bill would go nowhere and it died in committee.”

Concludes Frank Kilgore: “For Kaine to twist this issue into a lie is beyond the pale and should immediately be retracted.”

I attended a breakfast today on The Peninsula in my town for Del. Tom Gear (R-91 HD) where the guest of honor was Sen. George Allen. Gear is being challenged by a Democrat city councilman from Hampton running as an ‘Independent’. It is the power and money Establishment payback for Gear’s leadership against the 02 Transportation Tax Scam and vote against the 04 Tax Increase and Surplus. Gear is one of the true Populists in the GA. He represents a core constituency of the RPV.

The Mayor of Poquoson (pop 12,000) gave Sen. Allen a model boat representing the heritage of this community – and the few Watermen who still live and work here. He talked about how George Allen was on the scene the day after Isabel damaged over half the houses here. Some folks are still living in trailers and rebuilding two years later. He mentioned Allen’s support for a Veterans’ problem on disability pay.

Del. Jack Reid (R-Henrico) spoke his support for Gear’s re-election and role in the GA.

Del. Tom Gear spoke briefly about his campaign. His opposition is trying to buy the seat.

Sen. Allen spoke about the judiciary and Harriet Miers, illegal immigraion, and taxes as spin-offs from Gear’s campaign brochure. He did it fluidly and with his usual energy, confidence and enthusiasm.

Naturally, he spoke well of the whole GOP ticket statewide and for Gear.

It was very interesting to hear him say he had not made up his mind about Harriet Miers yet. He will decide in the confirmation process.

He spoke for a guest worker program but against amnesty for illegal aliens.

And, surprise, he was against new and more taxes. Allen supported the troops and their missions. He said he believed democracy, if individuals are given the choice, is picked totalitarianism anywhere in the world.

The crowd loved him. He hit the right chords within these voters. Lots of real affection and admiration for Sen. Allen.

I view these events as political theater. That isn’t perjorative. They are necessary and important in every campaign and through the year for the Party faithful. There are expectations and formats that are almost scripted. It is the delivery of the actors that impresses. Sen. Allen always impresses – from what I’ve seen.

Now to get the word out to the voters of the 91st HD that Democrat Mark “I-won’t-raise-your-taxes” Warner goes to the opponent’s fund raiser and Sen. George Allen stumps for Republican Del. Tom Gear.

While Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore attacked each other with negative advertising, shedding lots of heat but little light, someone was actually exploring some useful ideas yesterday for creating prosperity and making Virginia more liveable. At Landsdowne conference center, the 2005 Loudoun County Economic Summit focused on the imperative of deploying broadband across the state. The attendees actually brushed up against a profound truth, although it’s not clear from the acount in Leesburg2Day.com, how clearly they understood it.

According to Leesburg2Day.com: “Joe T. May (R-33) and U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) [called] for a more serious push by government agencies to ensure that high speed connections to the nation’s telecom backbone are available to all residents and businesses. In many areas, phone and cable companies are moving to expand broadband capabilities, however, low density or low income markets that don’t fit their economic model aren’t getting the connections.” (My emphasis.)

Bruce Tulloch, vice chairman of the Loudoun County board of supervisors, echoed the theme. According to Leesburg2Day.com: “Tulloch noted that his home in the CountrySide community in Sterling doesn’t have cable access and was considered a ‘large lot’ neighborhood when he sought to get a broadband line extended to his home. “

What lessons were drawn? Here’s Joe May:”If Virginia is to remain competitive, we must expedite the installation of the telecommunications [infrastructure].” He said he is considering a modernized Virginia version of the Rural Electrification Agency of the 1930s that brought power to the state’s boonies. This project would help fund ubiquitous access to high-speed Internet service throughout the state and essentially make it a utility.

Here’s another idea, and it won’t require setting up a government utility: Get local governments to stop mandating too-big-to-serve lot sizes! The private sector isn’t running cable lines to large swaths of Loudoun County because the houses are too far apart to make it economical. It’s that simple. If people live in houses on isolated, large lots, they shouldn’t expect the rest of society to pick up the tab for their poor decision of where to live. If they really want broadband Internet access, let them go out and buy a satellite dish!

Tim Kaine lost my vote today.

I’d genuinely been undecided on whether to vote for Kaine or Jerry Kilgore. Kilgore has the better stance on taxes, but Kaine has — make that had — the better transportation policy. In particular, Kaine acknowledges that a root problem of traffic congestion in Virginia today is the disjunction between land use planning and transportation planning. Local governments are approving development projects without regard to the impact on regional transportation networks — only too happy to let the Virginia Department of Transportation clean up the mess they create.

Kilgore has some interesting ideas on how to approach transportation, but Kaine, I thought, had the more profound understanding of the problem. Apparently, I was wrong. According to Chris Jenkins of the Washington Post, Kaine advocates giving local governments the power to reject rezoning requests with a negative traffic impact. Sayeth the Post:

In one new ad, the announcer says, “As you inch your way home in traffic, ask yourself, ‘Is the problem that you don’t pay enough taxes, or is it runaway development?’ Then the candidate says: “We can’t tax and pave our way out of traffic.”

Kaine gets half of it right: We cannot tax and pave our way out of traffic congestion. But he gets the other half woefully wrong. The solution is not giving local governments additional power to halt development projects on the grounds that they would “overwhelm nearby roads,” as Jenkins puts it. Very rarely does a major developer try to develop a tract of land where the transportation infrastructure is obviously inadequate unless he has concrete plans for fixing the problem. No one will buy his houses otherwise. The problem tends to be with smaller projects — builders who want to add just one more subdivision to a road that’s already pushing the limit.

Giving local governments the power to reject projects on the basis of traffic impact will give them the power to reject virtually any project they don’t like. But it won’t stop growth. It will only relocate growth to more remote jurisdictions where local traffic congestions aren’t as bad … yet. While this provision may provide relief locally, it will only aggravate problems regionally. Developers will find land in ever more remote locales to build their subdivisions, and homebuyers will buy those homes for a lack of an alternative. When they commute to work, they will crowd onto the same limited number of transportation arteries. In sum, Kaine’s plan will only relocate traffic congestion. But people will be forced to driver longer distances in the bargain.

The problem isn’t growth. It’s the pattern of growth — the scattered, disconnected, low-density growth that has prevailed in Virginia over the past 50 years. Tim Kaine’s plan would do nothing to change the pattern growth. Indeed, Kaine’s proposal would make growth even more scattered and more disconnected. The proposal is a very, very bad idea — so bad that it overwhelms the positive aspects of what had been a respectable transportation plan. Unless Kaine reverses his stand I cannot vote for him.

Kilgore isn’t showing the kind of leadership I’d like to see on taxes and transportation, but at least his plank won’t make matters visibly worse. Unless he commits a serious gaffe — a possibility not to be dismissed — he’s got my vote.

Notguyincognito: “Jerry was evasive, smarmy and evasive again. Kaine clearly had more zingers, better lines, and just plain looked more like a governor than Kilgore. … Jerry did not present a case as to why people should vote for him, instead just saying why they should NOT vote for Kaine”

Commonwealth Conservative: “Jerry Kilgore took a very big step toward being elected Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. … The more I reflect, the more I believe that this evening was a home run for Jerry Kilgore.”

Bearingdrift: “Win for Kaine, if he wanted Kilgore to come off as liberal. … Win for Kaine, if he wanted Kilgore to come off as negative. My final analysis, likely a win for Kilgore as he showed that he can answer the mail.”

Raising Kaine: “Kaine kicked Kilgore butt. … Besides being vague, evasive, and inaccurate, Kilgore was pretty much all negative, all the time.”

750 Volts: “Kaine kicked Kilgore butt. … Tim Kaine was the only candidate offering a positive message, as opposed to Jerry Kilgore, who wouldn’t pledge to keep half of his TV ads positive. Kilgore, dodged, bobbed and weaved.”

One Man’s Trash: “Kilgore looked stiff and uncomfortable. He fumbled and stumbled and, honestly, looked like he’d give his right arm to be somewhere else. Kaine. Good lord… what’s with that eyebrow? And the make-up… too much rouge on the cheekbones, tiger.”

Commonwealth Watch: “Neither Virginia gubernatorial candidate will win the Daniel Webster Orator of the Year Award, but tonight’s debate was decent. … I flipped between the debate and the Redskins game. … A non-event.”

Criesinthenight: “Does anyone else find Kaine’s raised eyebrow very, very annoying? … On radio Kaine would’ve carried the day, but his consistent breaking of the time limit (which clearly ticked off Sabato), eyebrow, and general body language goes against him. Victory Kilgore, but only slightly.”

Sic Semper Tyrannis: “Tim Kaine’s record is atrocious. … If Kaine cannot convince the voters that he is Mark Warner Jr., he will lose. I do not think he did an effective job of doing so tonight…. I was disappointed with [Kilgore’s] performance from a stylistic perspective. Kilgore fumbled over his words….”

Not Larry Sabato (Virginia 2005 Elections): “Totally missed the debate tonight, watching the Redskins game.”

There you have it, folks! That’s all we could find on the blogosphere early this morning. … Which makes me think, I sure miss Will Vehrs. Will, come back. The blogosphere needs you, man!

If anyone relished the prospect of Tim Kaine chewing up Jerry Kilgore in the televised campaign debate tonight, they were sorely disappointed. Kilgore stumbled over a few words early on, and he relied a bit more upon canned phrases than Kaine, but he otherwise held his own. Judging the debate on style points, I would have given Kaine an 8 and Kilgore a 7. Not enough to make a difference. Judging the debate on substance, neither candidate committed a gaffe, and neither had a “gotcha” moment. Given the Kilgore camp’s pre-debate fears that their candidate would have his booty handed to him on statewide television, I imagine there are a lot of people heaving a sigh of relief.

Both candidates elaborated upon themes already established in their campaigns. Kaine emphasized his role as a partner of Gov. Mark R. Warner in making tough budget decisions, protecting the state’s AAA bond rating and increasing spending on education. He painted Kilgore as an obstructionist opposed to raising taxes and otherwise shoring up state finances.

Kilgore painted Kaine as a tax-and-spend liberal who would raise taxes again, and, to counter Kaine’s appeal on educational issues, repeatedly tarred him for his record as mayor of Richmond, with its second worst-performing school district in the state.

Kaine’s best moment: When questioned about his personal opposition to the death penalty and abortion, Kaine responded: “I’m Catholic. There’s never been a Catholic governor. I’m against the death penalty and abortion. I’m not going to change my religion to get elected. But I’ll swear to uphold the law.” Kaine did a good job of neutralizing the issue.

Kilgore’s best moment: Responding to Kaine’s protestations that he’s cut a variety of taxes, Kilgore responded: “The test is not whether you’ve cut a tax here or there, but what has happened to the overall tax burden.” The fact is, Kaine increased the overall tax burden for Richmonders when he was mayor and for Virginians while he was Lieutenant Governor.

I don’t see either candidate getting much traction from the debate. The race for governor will go down to the wire, with the results determined largely by television ads and get-out-the-vote efforts.

Richmond’s “Main Street” business establishment once dominated political campaign finance in Virginia. Then, in the 1990s, Northern Virginia’s development and technology industries usurped Richmond’s role. Northern Virginians still have “more money than God,” as the saying goes — small donors are kicking in substantial sums — but the region’s tech tycoons and mega-developers are, for the most part, sitting this election out. Most of the big bucks donations are coming from downstate.

Let’s take a look at where the money is coming from (according to the Virginia Public Access Project):

Tim Kaine: $3.6 million comes from Central Virginia and $3.6 million from Northern Virginia. But remember, between the bigger population and higher incomes, there’s about twice as much money in Northern Virginia as in Richmond. Of the Top 25 donors, only Suzann Matthews, Janice Brandt, Gerald Halpin, Scott Kaprowisz and the Granite Group hail from the Northern Virginia metro area. Big donors from the Richmond region include Austin Ligon, Cobb Office Products, Stuart Siegel, William Jefferson, Altria, Dominion, Gray Fenchuk and Jim Ukrop.

Jerry Kilgore. Kilgore has received $3.5 million in donations from Northern Virginia vs. $2.9 million from Central Virginia. But among the Top 25 donors, only one business or individual (as opposed to a PAC or fund) originates from Northern Virginia: Mark Kington, a venture capitalist and Mark Warner’s old business partner. By contrast, Kilgore pulls from “Main Street” even thought it’s Kaine’s home town. Donors include Richard Sharpe, Altria, Dominion, and Atack Properties. And he’s raised a wad from his chums in far Southwest Virginia: John Gregory, Alpha Natural Resources, Marvin Gilliam and SJ Strategic Investments. Who even knew that kind of money could be found in SW Virginia?

Russ Potts. As a Northern Virginia regional candidate, Potts is an anomaly. He draws almost exclusively from Winchester and Northern Virginia. From Hampton Roads he’s picked up a grand total of… $5,300. From Central Virginia… $2,600. Not a single one of his Top 25 donors comes from downstate.

Now that Sen. Russell Potts has lost his desperate bid to be included in the gubernatorial campaign’s only debate to be televised statewide, it’s all downhill for the Winchester maverick. As one shrewd observer of the campaign suggested to me, the smart money in the tax-and-build lobby is switching its support to Jerry Kilgore, as evidenced by Kilgore’s recent endorsement by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce.

Potts carried water for the tax-and-build advocates in the business community, promoting his plan to raise taxes for transportation by some $2 billion a year. But his campaign never ignited. He’s slipping back into irrelevance in the polls, and he’s locked out of the debate, which was his last chance to connect with voters. According to this interpretation, the tax-and-build crowd wanted to throw its support to a winner and picked Kilgore because he was the least of two evils.

Although Kaine has proven that he’s not averse to increasing taxes, he also says Virginia’s transportation system is broken and needs to be fixed before pouring more money into it. As Kaine says on his website, referring to the 2002 referendum in which Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads voters rejected local tax increases for roads projects, citizens “did not trust that state and local leaders, even with additional resources, could solve our transportation problems planning and building roads the same way we always have. The message was crystal clear—don’t throw money at a broken system. Fix the system.”

The tax-and-spend lobby doesn’t want to wait to fix the system. It wants mo’ money now! Kilgore doesn’t give them what they want, but he’ll give them more than Kaine: injecting more money into transportation by applying Virginia’s substantial budget surpluses to funding transportation projects, vigorously pursuing public-private partnerships and giving taxing powers to transportation regional authorities. Kilgore would make the Road Gang sweat for its money, but he’s put more on the table than Kaine.

If this interpretation is right, Potts might as well hang it up. Virginia’s once-fawning press — and the public — will focus on the two lead horses as the race comes down to the wire.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch has hired a new executive editor — 59-year-old Glenn Proctor, an associated editor of the Star-Ledger in Newark, N.J. — to replace William H. Millsaps Jr., who has run the paper for 11 years. Publisher Thomas A. Silvestri described Proctor as “a firebrand on behalf of excellence in journalism.” (See story.)

Proctor is an ex-Marine, a seasoned newsman and… an African-American. As Michael Paul Williams, the T-D’s liberal black columnist observed, “This qualifies as a … seminal event not just in the history of this publication, but in a community where few corporate posts of this magnitude are held by people of color.”

Added Williams: “The uniform reaction to the news from other members of the ‘Caucus’ — the web of black journalists who once plied their trade here before moving on — was a collective ‘wow!’ Only the number of exclamation points varied.”

I interpret the Proctor appointment as consistent with Publisher Silvestri’s make-over of the T-D as a stronger force in the community. First we saw Silvestri’s “public square” initiative, promising a greater involvement in the community, accompanied by a discernible shift in the editorial pages in the treatment of local issues. Now we see the appointment of a forceful black executive editor whose predecessors 50 years ago defended massive resistance to integration.

If Proctor shares the shop-worn, blacks-as-victims narrative of Williams’ column, his relationship with Richmond could be a very rocky one. But I’m hoping that won’t be the case. I expect that Proctor will reflect the can-do ethic of the Marines he sprang from. In which case, we can all say, Welcome to Richmond!

See the news release below.

I blogged before that the only letter I’ve written to Sen Allen was last year when he made his first wrong vote on making homosexuals a protected class of persons.

As I said, I got a long, snippy letter from his staff. I didn’t mention that to him at a fund-raiser in Newport News a few months ago. But, then I didn’t know about this written memo of his.

He will vote for the crime bill, because golly gee its a crime bill with a bad amendment. That would be more plausible if he would work in public to rescind the memo.

This is not good.

FPN NEWS CONTACT: Joe Glover – 434-846-0500

Senator urged to keep promise vs. hate crimes – – this time

George Allen broke “no sexual orientation” pledge, but has a chance to get it right now

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(FOREST, VA) – The leader of a Virginia-based pro-family organization is urging U.S. Senator George Allen (R-VA) to honor a written campaign promise to oppose adding “sexual orientation” to the list of federal “hate crimes.”

“George Allen broke his promise to not support adding “sexual orientation” to the federal list of hate crimes last year. We’re asking him not to break that promise again now,” said Family Policy Network (FPN) president Joe Glover in a written statement.

On October 27, just days before his election to the Senate in 2000, then-candidate Allen promised to oppose hate crimes designation for homosexuals, in exchange for a guarantee from conservative leaders to drop the issue – rather than publicly criticize his prior statements in support of such legislation.

Allen’s promise, which was written on “Allen 2000″ campaign stationary, was signed by the candidate himself. The letter (see below) clearly states that, if elected, Allen would not support adding sexual orientation to the list of federal hate crimes “or any other similar legislation.” The letter also expresses Allen’s belief that such legislation would “have the effect of elevating sexual orientation to civil rights status,” which he promised he would not do.

Also in the letter, Allen added that he had “always been an advocate for increased penalties on anyone who commits a violent crime” in an apparent attempt to justify his previous willingness to support the hate crimes designation for sexual orientation.

“That might make a good sound bite,” Glover said, “but it doesn’t explain why killing grandma for the money in her purse should be any less a crime than killing someone else for engaging in same-sex sodomy.”

Allen broke the promise in June of 2004 when he helped pass a Senate bill to add “sexual orientation” to the list of federal hate crimes (see story). The legislation eventually expired because Republican leaders never scheduled a vote in the House of Representatives. This year, however, the House has already passed the language. It will now be considered by the Senate.

Glover says, “This time, we’re asking Senator Allen to remember his promise. If he doesn’t, we won’t let him forget it.”

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RELATED INFORMATION:

Letter from George Allen, promising not to support adding “sexual orientation” to hate crimes:

See the letter online at this location:

http://va.familypolicy.net/Allen_vs_HC.gif

From today’s Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star:

“Manassas has become the first city in America where every family can access high-speed Internet service simply by plugging into a common electrical wall socket. … The technology being put to use in Manassas is called broadband over power line (BPL) and it carries data over the city’s electrical grid. … Customers are provided with a modem to plug into their home electrical sockets.”

The service costs $28.95 per month — less than what the cable and DSL typically costs. Where the technology could prove to be really significant is in rural areas where broadband service doesn’t exist at all. Said Joseph E. Gerus, CEO of Communications Technologies Inc. , the Chantilly telecommunications company involved with the project: “What we are announcing today in Manassas is something that we could be rolling out in a year or two in literally scores of communities across the United States.”

Presumably, they’re paying attention down in Southside, where installing a broadband network is a high priority — and public money is available to fund it. The Tobacco Indemnification and Community Revitalization Commission, underwritten by tobacco settlement funds, is committing $21 million to bring broadband to six new communities: Dinwiddie, Appomattox, Bedford, South Hill, Martinsville and Danville. (See article in the Petersburg Progress-Index.)

They aren’t using the Manassas technology in Southside, but I’m wondering if Broadband Over Power Line might drive down the cost of extending broadband access beyond the mill-town population clusters to dispersed residents in the countryside. I’d bet there are a number of rural electrical cooperatives that would love to diversify their revenue stream.

The Library of Virginia has selected the Bacon’s Rebellion blog “for inclusion in its historic collection of Internet materials” relating to Virginia’s 2005 state-wide elections for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

According to an e-mail I received from Kathy Jordan, electronic resources manager:

The Library will engage in the collection of content from your Web site at regular intervals from September through the election. The Library will make this collection available to researchers onsite in the Library’s reading room. After the election, the content of the site will become part of the Library’s archival collection and continue to be available as an historical record of public opinion.

Naturally, we’re flattered that the Library of Virginia would deem Bacon’s Rebellion worthy of preservation for posterity. I fully expect that the Library will do the same for many of the Commonwealth’s other excellent blogs.

What’s truly significant is not the selection of this or that blog but the fact that the Library of Virginia even has an electronic resources manager whose job is to archive electronic content. Think about that! Some future historian will delve into our blogs for insight into the thinking of everyday people. We will yield a bounty of authenticity that researchers could never find in the newspapers or broadcast video files.

So, be careful what you post on the Rebellion! Not only will we think you’re a knucklehead, historians a hundred years from now could conclude that you’re a knucklehead, too!

The debate over what is a tax increase has raged on since the primary. Given, when a local governing body votes to raise the real estate tax rate, it is a tax increase. Previously debated: If a local governing body fails to lower the rate sufficient to overcome assessment increases, is that a tax increase? And now comes this question from Chesterfield County, as reported today in the Richmond TD. When a local governing body takes steps that raise assessments, is that a tax increase?

I say yes. There is no question the value of my home here in Chesterfield will rise or fall based on the going price for comparable new homes — some of them very near by. When the price of those new homes rises to cover this higher proffer, eventually the value of existing homes will rise as well. With all due respect to the powers that be in Chesterfield, it is insulting to me for them to deny something that a freshman in Econ 101 can figure out. If proffers and impact fees only produced the direct revenue and no indirect revenue, I’m not sure so many localities would be so eager to adopt them. And now that the local homebuilders have made an effort to teach a little econ to the taxpayers in existing home, at least we can have an honest discussion.

I’ve plugged one of Tim Kaine’s ads and one of Russ Potts’ ads. Now I’ve finally come across a Jerry Kilgore ad that I really like. Just call me a sucker for anything that makes me laugh.

If you’ve ever wondered what Jerry’s twin brother Terry looks like, you’ll see him here. Terry’s a dead ringer for his brother. Even sounds just like him. If they sent Terry out on the campaign trail, no one could even tell the difference. Just think of it: Two Jerry Kilgores could attend twice as many events, shake twice as many hands and kiss twice as many babies. Tim Kaine wouldn’t stand a chance. View ad here.

Well, Labor Day has come and gone, and it still doesn’t look like the electorate is getting excited about Virginia’s gubernatorial campaign. According to a story in the Richmond Times-Dispatch this morning, with a deadline looming, registrars in the Richmond area are reporting a diminished number of people signing up to vote.

Wrote Tyler Whitley: “Mark Coakley, registrar in Henrico County, said about 50 people have come by the county government complex to register in person. Another 250 have sought absentee ballots, far under the total from last year, he said.” The City of Richmond had received 88 applications, but “20 plus” were rejected because they were inaccurate. Wow, only 100 new voters in jurisdictions with a combined population of 450,000. You can’t get much more apathetic than that.

Robert D. Holsworth, chair of the government and public affairs department at VCU, noted that no defining issues have emerged from the campaign. That impression is backed up by a recent Rasmussen poll showing that voters were most interested in bread-and-butter issues, while candidates are focusing largely on the cultural wedge issues.

If turnout looks like it will be exceptionally low, expect the candidates to abandon their appeal to uncommitted moderate voters and start riling up their motivated base.