Virginia Policy in the Face of Inflation and Recession
Share this article
ADVERTISEMENT
(comments below)
Comments
Comments
16 responses to “Virginia Policy in the Face of Inflation and Recession”
-
Believe economist Gary Shilling agrees with the 2022 Recession, especially with the war now he is doubling down on that prediction. Inflation not so much perhaps.
A. Gary Shilling
@agaryshilling
Jan 31
The #FederalReserve’s credit-tightening will probably precipitate a #recession, as has occurred in 11 of 12 earlier credit-tightening efforts. As the #economy falters, the Fed will reverse course and ease credit again, to the benefit of Treasurys. See my Feb. 2022 INSIGHT reportNo Boomergeddon?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-07/ballooning-u-s-debt-is-a-bomb-that-won-t-detonate -
“I now expect both runaway inflation and a deep recession.” Knew that Biden took office.
“We are at war, whether or not that has dawned on our federal and state governments.” Knew that also, but for other reasons and people aren’t listening.
“The federal government will wake up to that slowly and too late.” I’m not sure they will wake up. Mind is depraved and too far gone.
-
Believe economist Gary Shilling agrees with the 2022 Recession, especially with the war now he is doubling down on that prediction. Inflation not so much perhaps.
A. Gary Shilling
@agaryshilling
Jan 31
The #FederalReserve’s credit-tightening will probably precipitate a #recession, as has occurred in 11 of 12 earlier credit-tightening efforts. As the #economy falters, the Fed will reverse course and ease credit again, to the benefit of Treasurys. See my Feb. 2022 INSIGHT reportBut no “Boomergeddon” he says-
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-07/ballooning-u-s-debt-is-a-bomb-that-won-t-detonate-
Mr. Shilling discussed post-war economic growth reducing debt. He did not offer a prediction when the war that we are currently in will end, or indeed even acknowledge it.
-
He acknowledged the war in his INSIGHT monthly newsletter which I do not currently subscribe, so I only saw first sentence. But I would support using Shilling as an economic consultant.
-
-
-
Conservatives’ predictions are not the most reliable forecast of the future….
-
You need to look at numbers in addition to the inflation rate. As one prominent economist argues, the country’s economic posture is a lot better than the public thinks it is. A long-running survey of consumer attitudes found that an individual’s thinking about the economy was strongly correlated with partisanship. A fascinating finding was that Republicans have a more pessimistic view about the economy now than they did in 1980 when unemployment was above 7 percent and inflation was around 14 percent! https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-jobs.html
-
I don’t reference the public’s attitude about inflation, just the international environment for increasing inflation from which Virginia cannot be shielded.
I don’t agree that this is a partisan issue.
Rises in the price of oil have correlated with recessions in 1974 and 2008, both periods of what is called stagflation.
Unfortunately, we are not just talking about oil prices this time, but also Russia and Ukraine are major producers of metals such as nickel, copper and iron. They are also heavily involved in the export and manufacture of other essential raw materials like neon, palladium and platinum.
About 90% of neon, which is used for chip lithography, originates from Russia, and 60% of this is purified by one company in Odessa – that Odessa
Finally there is wheat.
Bunge reports that Ukraine, commonly known as the breadbasket of Europe, has over a quarter of the world’s chernozem or “black earth” and 54 percent of its land is arable according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Chernozem is a very fertile soil that produces high agricultural yields and offers excellent agronomic conditions for the production of crops, especially cereals and oilseeds.
Wheat futures have risen by about 40% so far this year.
-
The increase in wheat futures should be good news for Virginia’s wheat farmers, who have seen record law prices in recent years. https://augustafreepress.com/virginia-winter-wheat-crop-ready-to-go-into-the-ground/
-
It’s an ill wind that blows no one good. Wheat production in Virginia is concentrated in the Northern Neck.
-
It’s an ill wind that blows no one good. Wheat production in Virginia is concentrated in the Northern Neck.
-
What goes around comes around. Supplying wheat to warring nations, starting in the 1840s, brought waves of prosperity to wheat farmers in Louisa County, especially in the uniquely fertile Green Springs area. That included Russia during the Crimean War in the 1850s.
Farmhouses in the area often document that prosperity through their successive waves of expansion. In some cases original structures were completely wrapped in “new” construction.
-
That’s only good until the US is sucked in to provide blood and treasure and surely we will be sucked in if it continues.
-
Yeah, I was just observing that Virginia has profited from war driven wheat pricing for close to 200 years.
Treasure is already provided, and it may be the blood of everyone in the world if we don’t come to our senses. The Cuban Missile Crisis in ’62 should have taught us something. The Russians are no more willing to have hostile armed forces on their border today than we were in ’62.
-
-
-
-
I already wrote a BR article on oil seeds for green diesel, but I would still think that could be profitable crop in the current environment. Also the practice of the southeast states sending forest wood to Europe is probably set for expansion, green or not in the view of the beholder. In my view not so green. Oh wait we converted the farmland to solar.
-
Hopefully, Sherlock will prove to be wrong about both runaway inflation and a recession. We will have to see how the Fed does in navigating these times.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.