• Metro’s Slow-Motion Train Wreck

    What’s the real cost of running the Washington Metro? Does anyone really know? Metro authorities cite problems such as worn track fasteners, crumbling concrete platforms and corroded traction power cables, reports Lena Sun with the Washington Post. The agency needs $489 million for “urgent” maintenance work, $244 million of it in the next two years. Metro doesn’t have the money, and municipal governments in the Washington region are reluctant to cough up any more.

    Please note, that half billion dollars just covers Metro’s “urgent” needs. How much would it cost to bring the Metro up to the standards of a first-class commuter rail? How would that liability translate into fiscal obligations for Virginia localities under the current cost-sharing formulas?

    As gasoline prices soar, Metro should be riding high as motorists seek alternative modes of transportation. But the railway system is crumbling. Is there any hope that Metro can function effectively under its current governance structure, which must balance the interests of multiple municipalities in three different states?

    One more question: Is this a system that Fairfax County really wants to buy into with the Rail-to-Dulles project? Does the county have any idea of what kind of liabilities are lurking off the books?


  • Annexation Count-Down: Two Years and Counting. What Comes Next?

    Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is one of the few people, it appears, who is looking ahead to the year 2010 when a state moratorium on annexation expires. Unless the issues that inspired the moratorium years ago are addressed, Virginia could face a wave of bitter conflict between cities and counties. According to Ray Reed with the Media General News Service, Kaine wants to start a discussion with state legislators and city leaders.

    A quick primer: When the drafters of the state constitution envisioned a system of independent cities and counties, they gave the municipalities different powers and authorities. The thought was that cities, as urban centers, would require greater fiscal resources to provide urban services to their citizens. Counties, by contrast, were overwhelmingly agricultural, and their citizens did not expect, or want to pay for, the same level of services. However, as growth spilled out of cities into neighboring counties, annexation gave cities a tool to incorporate surrounding urban settlement patterns and provide the citizens the services they desired.

    The system worked as planned for decades. Then two things happened. First came the Civil Rights and the rise of the black vote. White-dominated city governments used annexation (or, it was feared they would use it) to annex white-dominated precincts of neighboring counties in order to preserve their white majorities. Clearly, this was a use of annexation not intended by the framers of the state Constitution.

    Then came the rise of auto-centric development that hop, skipped and jumped beyond city boundaries. Cities had a nasty habit of annexing those districts with heavier concentrations of tax-paying businesses, leaving the citizens (with their craving for urban services) to the counties. Needless to say, the counties felt victimized by this cherry picking.

    Those two trends led to the annexation moratorium. But that created a new set of problems as poverty became concentrated in cities, saddling them with high costs of crime fighting and social services, and new economic growth occurred in the counties. Despite the perceived inequities, counties and cities have lived relatively tranquilly ever since. Well, at least they haven’t been suing each other.

    But that could all change. Kaine is not the only one looking down the road. Steve Newman, R-Lynchburg, says he’s concerned that cities may soon start filing annexation lawsuits.

    Also, according to Chris Graham in the New Dominion, Del. Matt Lohr, R-Rockinham, authored a bill this session that would extend the original 15-year moratorium another 10 years to 2020. But Kaine vetoed the bill. Lohr worries that cities and counties may stop collaborating on mutually beneficial projects like water and sewer. Said Lohr: “Waiting until the last minute, as the governor suggests, only brings more harm to the problem. I learned on the farm many years ago that you donโ€™t wait until the last minute to fix a fence.”

    Kaine says that annexation is never coming back. Now is the time to think long-term about city-county relations, and that includes the ticklish issue of how to allocate state aid to localities and the idea of revenue sharing between localities. As Ray Reed quotes him, Kaine said:

    “If I’m in Wise County and I know that I’m going to get some percentage of the state’s income tax collections, I’m pleading for the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority to be successful,” Kaine said.

    “And similarly, if I’m in Norfolk I want Wise County to be successful.

    “So, we have to build some mechanisms in place that give everybody a motive to help everybody else be successful,” Kaine said.

    These issues won’t be easy to solve. But it’s nice to know that people are actually thinking ahead for a change.


  • Do Taxes Matter?

    The extent to which taxes drive economic behavior is a topic of some debate among economic development theoreticians. Some, like myself, believe that, all other things being equal, higher taxes discourage corporations and affluent individuals from investing in, or moving to, a state or region. Others believe that all other things never are equal, and that the effect of taxes are negligible.

    We may be getting a real-world experiment, with Virginia and Maryland in the petrie dish.

    The experiment will originate from actions on the northern side of the Potomac. The Maryland state Senate, to quote the Associated Press, “is weighing the option of using an income tax increase for people making more than $750,000 a year to replace the computer tax that was approved in the November special session.”

    Senators from Montgomery County (who are Democrats, incidentally) say the higher income tax will disproportionately affect taxpayers in the county, which is the state’s wealthiest. Their fear: Wealthy taxpayers may move to Virginia. An alliance of Montgomery Democrats and the state’s Republicans may be sufficient to quash the proposal, however. If they are successful, we’ll never know for sure whether an increase in the state income tax — from 5.5 percent to 6 percent for those earning more than $750,000 a year, and 6.5 percent for those earning more than $1-million — would induce a measurable number of rich Marylanders to forsake their terrapin-hood and embrace the cavalier life of Virginia. (Virginia’s top income tax rate is 5.75 percent.)

    But we still may get our social-scientific lab experiment. If the income-tax hike fails, that presumably leaves the computer tax in place. Maryland’s Information Technology industry bitterly fought the measure, which added computer support services, data center support, custom programming, consulting, and disaster recovery services to the list of activities covered by the state’s 6 percent sales tax. (See article in Information Week.) If that tax stays in effect, it is but a short hop, skip and jump to Northern Virginia.

    If the tax does drive business behavior, we can predict a growing number of announcements by Maryland-based businesses that they are locating their server farms, data centers and other operations in Northern Virginia. Stay tuned…

    Update: Here’s a sample of what Maryland will subject itself to if it keeps the sales tax on computers. In an open letter addressed to Maryland tech firms, dated march 14, Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Fairfax, wrote:

    I would like to take this opportunity to personally invite you to relocate your business to the Commonwealth of Virginia. Virginia has consistently been rated one of the most business friendly states in the nation in independent assessments, including receiving Forbes Magazineโ€™s top-ranking for the last two years. Here in the Commonwealth, we believe that business is the lifeblood of the economy and I am personally committed to making sure we remain welcoming to business owners. …

    As you consider your best options for the health of your business, please consider bringing your expertise to the Commonwealth of Virginia. Right here in Fairfax County, we have space in the high-tech Dulles Corridor that is calling your name. I would love to hear from you and connect you with resources for business owners here in Virginia.


  • What Are You Waiting for, Governor?

    A bill that would repeal Abuser Fees has been sitting on the desk of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine since March 19 — a full week now — but the governor has not signed it yet. Del. Tim Hugo, R- Fairfax, author of the bill, is getting impatient.

    HB 1243 would totally repeal the abusive driver fees and go into effect immediately upon receiving the governor’s signature. The measure also would refund motorists who had paid the fees, and would forgive any remaining fees.

    Says Hugo in an e-mail missive today: “We worked extremely hard with members of the Governor’s administration to ensure their recommendations were incorporated. … It is now time for Governor Kaine to stop delaying and sign this important repeal into law.”

    Has the governor developed cold feet about the repeal? Is he wondering what will replace the lost revenue? Or does he just have such a large pile of legislation on his desk that he can’t get to everything at once? Whatever the case, let’s repeal this dog and move on.

    Update: The governor signed the bill on March 27. I guess he was just backlogged.


  • Renewable Energy: Be Careful What You Wish For

    An unidentified company has filed a “pre-application” to construct 90 400-foot wind turbines in parts of Virginia’s George Washington and Thomas Jefferson national forests. Eighteen miles of national forest crest line would be affected by the proposal, says Rick Webb, an environmental scientist at the University of Virginia who opposed another wind farm proposal, since approved, in Highland County. (See the story on NVDaily.com.)

    Given the incentives to develop renewable energy resources, Webb sees the application as a sign of things to come. “This is the tip of the iceberg.”

    Here’s what’s going on: Virginia, like many other states, has set a goal for electric utilities to generate a significant percentage of their electric power from renewable energy sources in the near/mid-term future. Dominion has been buying wind power projects, and in November it issued a Request for Proposal for more renewable energy projects. (Last week Dominion pronounced that it was “pleased” by the response, which included ideas for wind, hydro, biomass and solar.)

    At present, wind power and biomass are the more economically competitive of the renewable energy sources. But they tend to be small-scale, and a large number of projects will need to be built to generate sufficient electricity to meet the state’s quotas for renewable fuels. Consequently, there will be intense pressure to build on the limited number of renewable-fuel sites that are available.

    I don’t know for a fact that the proposal for wind farms in the national forest is directly tied to the Dominion solicitation, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it is — the timing is surely more than coincidental. Regardless, the hearings for the wind power proposal undoubtedly will be a replay of the controversial Highland County project — where concerns surfaced about the giant turbine blades killing birds and bats — compounded by the fact that the scenic vistas of national forest are being despoiled.

    Thus, under the guise of environmental values, public policy in Virginia is promoting renewable energy. But under a different set of environmental values, we’ll find that many of those projects are undesirable.

    To my way of thinking, energy conservation is the most pristine environmental policy of all — avoid consuming the electricity in the first place. Of course, our current regulatory apparatus encourages Dominion and other electric utilities to pursue renewable energy sources, whatever the cost, because they can pass on the cost to rate payers. By contrast, power companies in Virginia only undercut their market when they invest in conservation measures.

    We’re getting what we wished for, and we may not like it.

    (Credit for photo of mountain-ridge wind turbines: Appalachian Voice Front Porch Blog.)


  • “Richmond” Has a Credibility Problem – Is There a Solution?

    The Kaine administration has a credibility problem in Northern Virginia when it comes to matters of transportation. The Department of Rail and Public Transportation has proposed diverting a big chunk of an anticipated $195 million in revenues from HOT lanes along Interstate 95/395 to the Virginia Railway Express. That would mean fewer Bus Rapid Transit buses serving the Interstate — and Northern Virginia politicians are not happy about it. “It’s bait and switch,” says Alexandria Mayor William D. Euille.

    As Eric Weiss explains the problem in the Washington Post, Washington area leaders went along with the plan to turn the carpool lanes on Interstates 95 and 395 into express toll lanes on the understanding that $195 million would be devoted to mass transit, including 184 clean-fuel buses that would ferry commuters into the District or the Pentagon. But DRPT had a different idea: In addition to $40 million for VRE, the state now wants to spend $76.6 million on park-and-ride lots and other facilities south of the converted HOT lanes.

    Northern Virginians lost no time in painting “Richmond” as the villain. “This is diverting resources needed here to another part of the state,” said Gerald E. Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. “These are our resources.”

    “This is classic,” Weiss quotes Fairfax resident Bob Perotti as saying. Have you noticed that Richmond has the best roads in the state and Northern Virginia has the worst traffic?”

    Mr. Perotti might be interested to know that Spotsylvania County, where some of the improvements would go, anchors the south end of the I-95 HOT lane corridor and is at least two counties removed from the “Richmond” metropolitan area, and also that the VRE heads north from its point of origin, not south. He also might be interested to know that Pierce Homer, the secretary of transportation who defended the DRPT study, cut his political teeth in Prince William County before joining the Warner administration and staying on with the Kaine team.

    Regardless, the perception of facts has greater political import than the facts themselves. And the perception is that the politicians and planners “in Richmond” — regardless of who appointed them, whom they represent, or where in the state they might have come from — cannot be trusted. Once again, Northern Virginians see “Richmond” grabbing their money and spending it for the benefit of someone else.

    In this instance, the perception really isn’t fair. The Kaniacs contend that the new plan still would add five new Rapid Bus Transit stations and 76 buses. Their analysis suggests, however, that they could divert more drivers off the Interstate by investing the balance in VRE and the park ‘n’ ride lots. By expanding the frame of reference from I-95 proper to the I-95 corridor more broadly conceived, they get a different result.

    An I-95 Corridor Authority. The issue here is one of trust. Fairly or unfairly, Northern Virginians don’t trust anyone from “Richmond.” That itself is a political reality that must be addressed. How do we change that suspicion?

    The political dynamic would be very different, I believe, if Virginia embraced the idea of planning transportation around “congestion corridors.” Interstate 95/395, stretching from Spotsylvania to the 14th Street Bridge, would logically fall into a single corridor. But the corridor should be defined more broadly than the Interstate alone. It should include U.S. Route 1, which runs parallel for most of the distance, as well as the VRE. The goal should be to improve mobility and access for the entire corridor, not just a single component of it.

    The corridor would need an operating entity — the “I-95 Corridor Authority” — that would administer the congestion toll revenues and plan how best to spend them. Currently, the politically correct solution is to plow all the revenues into Bus Rapid Transit or VRE. Those may be the best solutions — but, then, maybe they aren’t. No one has seriously examined other options for improving corridor mobility, such as: (1) ramp metering to reduce congestion at interchanges, (2) improved incident response teams to get wrecks off the road, (3) traffic light synchronization along U.S. 1, or (4) more sensors and monitors to measure, and respond to, traffic flow. (If these options have been considered, they have never made it into newspaper accounts.)

    If I might speak even more boldly, I might suggest that a corridor authority should have input into land use planning along the corridor. City councils and boards of supervisors tend to consider the impact of their decisions only upon their own localities. Someone needs to analyze impacts that spill over municipal borders. It is not yet clear how well the Virginia Department of Transportation can fulfill that function — there’s that bugaboo of trust. As long as the authorities are transparent and accountable, citizens and politicians may trust a regional authority to better represent their interests than “Richmond” does.

    (Hat tip: Jim Wamsley.)


  • The War Bill Comes Due

    As one who came of age during the Vietnam War years, I am amazed at the lack of protest over George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq War. Not only has the war now claimed the lives of 4,000 U.S. service men and women, it has killed 90,000 Iraqi civilians.

    New estimates put the overall cost of the war at $3 trillion, a quantum leap from the Bush Administration’s original estimate of $50 billion. This is big, big money and is major reason for this country’s current economic woes since the war has grossly inflated the budget deficit and help triple the price of oil. The subprime mess, bursting of the real estate bubble and Wild West financing have been other major causes of the current woes. But the war does far more to negatively impact the U.S. economy that merely land use, which is a popular item, if overrated, of discussion on this blog.

    Even more shameful is that the Weapons of Mass Destruction used as an excuse for the war didn’t exist. And, the neocons’ dream of creating a viable model of American-style democracy for the rest of the Middle East has become a bad joke. (See column in Bacons Rebellion).

    Peter Galuszka


  • Adventures in Transparency

    Cockroaches famously scurry for their hideouts when the lights come on. Why do they hide? Light brings trouble — swatting brooms, smashing feet and toxic clouds of pesticide.

    In other words, the party’s over (for the moment).

    Like those apocalypse-proof denizens of the baseboard, governments aren’t too keen on the idea of having a light shined on their activities, either. The more exposed their activities are to scrutiny, the more likely someone is to ask uncomfortable questions (Three grand charged to the Holiday Inn? I didn’t know they had a presidential suite. They don’t? Maybe it was those mini-bar Snickers, then. All of them. On the entire fifth floor).

    The move to shine even more light into Virginia’s budget is the topic of my latest column. I take a spin through Commonwealth Data Point to see where the money is going, and find lots and lots of data.

    But for all the numbers and all the names, one critical piece of the puzzle is missing: Context.

    For example, why did someone at VDOT charge over $500 at a Bass Pro Shop? There might be a legitimate reason for this expenditure (after all, how many people still dig up their own night crawlers?). But you’ll never find out why the money was spent there, or at any number of tire centers, or hardware stores or newspapers because there’s no context for the charge.

    Putting the state’s finances in perspective is one of the goals of transparency. It will allow some, of course, to say that the holy trinity of waste, fraud and abuse is rampant and needs to be addressed immediately. Others will be able to discern spending patterns — who the favored vendors are, why spending increases in December, and more. Still others will look at the mess and wonder how they can get in on the good times (cut-rate night crawler salesmen will be beating down VDOT’s door at any moment).

    The legislature had a shot at passing a wide-ranging transparency bill in this session, but refused. Meanwhile, other states are passing measures either unanimously or by executive order. Some are more comprehensive than others, but all are aimed at the same, general goal:

    Turning the lights on, and seeing what scurries toward the baseboard.


  • No More Free Lunch: User Pays

    Everybody knows that Virginia needs to invest more money in its transportation infrastructure. The central questions that have concerned lawmakers is how much money, and who pays? (I’ll leave aside for now the nettlesome issue, which has received insufficient attention, of coordinating transportation improvements with human settlement patterns.)

    As the collapse of the HB 3202 funding formula shows, Virginia’s transportation funding policy is in total disarray. In this week’s column, I argue that the only approach to raising more money for transportation that can be sold politically to the public is one built around the principle of user pays. In the normal course of politics, constituencies lobby for road and transit improvements that benefit them — but do their utmost to shift the cost to someone else. That just won’t work anymore. People don’t trust the system to treat them fairly. The only politically palatable way to raise funds is to ensure that those who use, or benefit from, transportation improvements pay for those improvements themselves.

    No more taxing the public and cycling billions of dollars to Richmond where politicians, bureaucrats and rent-seeking lobbyists can divert funds to their own special uses. From now on, transportation revenues must go directly back to those who pay for them. And if the money can’t be found to build a pet project, then maybe, just maybe, it doesn’t deserve to be built.

    But never fear. There are many, many sources of funds that we can tap to expand our transportation system. In “User Pays,” I outline many of them and show how they can be sold politically to a skeptical public.

    Most of these ideas are familiar to faithful readers of Bacon’s Rebellion. But for the benefit of those who don’t haunt this blog every day and read all the comments, here is an outline of the main points:

    • Dedicate the gas tax to maintenance. Raise or lower the tax as maintenance costs rise or fall.
    • Prepare for the day when the gas tax doesn’t work anymore by investigating a Vehicle Miles Traveled tax.
    • Use privately financed tolls to build major new bridge and limited-access highway projects.
    • Charge impact fees on commercial and residential development
    • Use CDAs and TIFs to finance local projects when impact fees do not suffice
    • Use congestion tolls to allocate scarce highway capacity. Create congestion “corridors” and “districts” where the tolls apply, and plow back revenues into improvements that increase mobility and access within those corridors and districts.
    • Tap the General Fund only for projects that can be justified on the basis of public safety or economic development.
    • Pass a constitutional amendment to protect dedicated transportation revenues from legislative raids.

  • Springtime for the Rebellion

    The flowers were blooming, the birds were singing and the Rebellion was spreading. There was optimism in the air. And hope, real hope, for fundamental change — an end to Business As Usual. Feel the freedom. Read the March 24, 2008, edition of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine.

    If you don’t subscribe to the e-zine, you should. It’s free. Click here.

    Here’s this issue’s line-up:

    User Pays

    Virginia’s transportation system needs more money. But how we raise the money is just as important as how much. Only a user-pays system can break the political gridlock.

    by James A. Bacon


    Good News, Bad Reporting

    As the economy weakens, you can count on the MainStream Media to defend MassOverconsumption and Business As Usual in a desperate bid to keep the advertising dollars flowing.

    by EM Risse


    Learning from Big Boxes

    Consumers love big box stores for their “bargains” and “everyday low prices.” What they don’t see are the costs imposed by hidden subsidies and the scatteration of human settlement patterns.

    by EM Risse


    Extend Foot, Pull Trigger

    The unilateral rewriting of the Dulles Greenway legislation sends a bad signal to potential investors in Virginia roads: When times turn tough, lawmakers renege on deals.

    by Leonard Gilroy


    Pork and Transparency

    The Commonwealth is slowly, grudgingly opening up its books to citizen scrutiny. Putting credit-card bills on a Web-accessible database is a big step forward, but it raises more questions than it answers.

    by Norm Leahy


    The War Bill Comes Due

    The hidden costs of the Iraq war are a bigger economic debacle than the sub-prime mess.

    by Peter Galuszka


    Juice Junkies

    The Day household is addicted to electricity. Our careless consumption has consequences beyond the light bill: pollution, mountaintop removal and greenhouse gases among them.

    by Barnie Day


    I’ll Take the Two BMWs, Please

    Rail to Dulles is so expensive that we could lease two BMWs per rider with the money. The Feds were right to turn down funding, and Virginia Congressmen should leave well enough alone.

    by Wendell Cox and Ron Utt


    Smokes, Litter and Drugs

    Youngsters who smoke cigarettes are more likely to litter and abuse drugs as well. The campaign to snuff out smoking is not just a public health issue, it’s a crusade to save our children.

    by Frank Kilgore


    More Roads Are Not the Answer

    The unraveling of Virginia’s transportation funding plans could be a blessing if it prompts lawmakers to wean the Commonwealth from its auto-centric, sprawl-inducing policies.

    by Michael Cecire


    Nice & Curious Questions

    Doggie Happy Hours, or

    Virginia is for Canine Lovers

    by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs


  • Rotoscope and Virginia’s Cultural Revolution

    Yes, folks, there is a soft and gentle side to Bacon’s Rebellion — a side that is sensitive to the arts and culture in Virginia. Part of the Bacon’s Rebellion manifesto is to liberate Virginia’s artists from the cultural hegemony of the New York/Hollywood axis that determines who makes it into the Big Time and who does not.

    Virginia has many musicians and artists who are every bit as talented as the “product” (think Britney Spears, Hannah Montana) cranked out by the New York/Hollywood star-making machinery. (If you’re into country music, I suppose you can call it the New York/Hollywood/Nashville star-making machinery.) In the winner-takes-all economy, the winners get fabulously famous and fabulously rich while those of equal talent labor in lifelong obscurity. Thanks to the digital revolution, however, it is increasingly possible for local artists to bypass the star-making establishment.

    I don’t pretend to know much about Virginia’s music scene, but I do stumble across talented groups from time to time, and I do what I can to give them a little visibility. My latest discovery is Rotoscope, an alternative band from the Washington area. The band has a great song, “Under the Milky Way,” which you can listen to on MySpace. You can also download some of the band’s more progressive music on iTunes. Check out Rotoscope and lend these Virginia boys your support.


  • Gilmore’s Independence-from-Foreign-Oil Plan

    Because Bacon’s Rebellion focuses exclusively on state/local policy issues, I normally don’t comment on U.S. Senatorial campaigns, even those here in Virginia. But I’ll make an exception in this case because Republican Senatorial candidate Jim Gilmore has issued a proposal for a “U.S. Declaration of Independence from Foreign Oil,” which , if enacted, would have significant ramifications for energy production and the environment in Virginia.

    Besides opening up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska for oil development, Gilmore would encourage exploration and drilling on the U.S. continental shelf. Virginia, for one, is believed to have extensive reserves of natural gas off its coast — the exploitation of which is a highly charged political issue.

    Gilmore wants to streamline regulations to allow construction of more oil refineries, and “eliminate counterproductive regulations that are raising our gas prices and damaging our economy.โ€ Unfortunately, he does not specify what those counterproductive regulations are, so there is no way to tell whether his plan would affect the State Security Commission’s regulation of natural gas tariffs.

    Finally, Gilmore says he would “pursue the added benefit of nuclear power,” which would help reduce dependence on foreign oil, but offer a cleaner power source for the environment. It’s not clear, however, how nuclear power would reduce the demand for foreign oil. Nuclear power is used to generate electricity. Only a tiny percentage of the electricity in the United States (and virtually none in Virginia) is generated by oil, so there is little to be displaced by nuclear power. We could reduce oil consumption if we converted combustion-powered automobiles to electric vehicles on a large scale, but Gilmore does not discuss that possibility.

    Missing from Gilmore’s proposal: any mention of conservation or renewable energy. Gilmore’s proposal is the photographic negative of environmentalist energy policies, which emphasize conservation and renewables exclusively while restricting fossil fuels and nuclear power. I’m more humble: I don’t pretend to know which approach is the most economical. My approach would be to create an equal playing field for all energy strategies, including an adjustment for pollution and other externalities created by fossil fuels and nukes, and then letting the marketplace decide which is the most cost efficient.


  • BY DEFINITION

    In a comment following the 18 March post โ€œON THE ECONOMYโ€ Anon 12:00 PM said…

    โ€œFunctional human settlement patterns will solve all our problems – by definition.โ€

    He / she was, perhaps, doing a funny but they have a point.

    We are painfully aware that many โ€“ ranging from advocates of remineralization; to vegetarians; to enforcers of family values; to those who advocate the right to carry concealed weapons into PTA meetings โ€“ suggest if everyone would just do as they suggest โ€œall our problems will be solved.โ€

    That is why we spent over a decade writing The Shape of the Future and why PART TWO (Chapters 5 thru 14) spellS out in detail the economic, social and physical impacts of dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

    So far no one has disputed the reality of these impacts. They have disputed the collective will of citizens to do anything about them.

    It is silly to say functional human settlement patterns will solve โ€œall our problems.โ€ It is accurate to say that functional settlement patterns will facilitate solving many problems like the Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis that underlie the current financial market turmoil.

    What is more, as documented by Chapter 23 of The Shape of the Future, evolving functional human settlement patterns is the first step on the road to creating a sustainable trajectory for civilization.

    Even with functional human settlement patterns there are some complicating factors such as human genetic proclivities and the question:

    Will the genetic proclivities that got humans to this point keep them from going farther?

    And, what IS โ€œfarther?โ€

    EMR


  • The Physics of Traffic Congestion


    I won’t have much time for blogging today, so I’ll leave you with this short video clip, from New Scientist, of a Japanese experiment probing the “shockwave” phenomenon: traffic slowdowns that spontaneously appear without any obvious rhyme or reason.

    Ah, human behavior… If it weren’t so complex and so demented, it wouldn’t be anywhere near so interesting!


  • Look, Ma, No Traffic Signals

    Could this work in the United States? Ron Utt with the Heritage Institute offers (tongue in cheek, I think) this example from India of “a novel Libertarian/ Communitarian fusion for a cost effective, multi-modal approach to a signal-free system of traffic flow.” Whether he’s kidding or not, it makes you wonder.