Bacon's Rebellion

  • PJM Capacity Prices Tick Even Higher Into 2028

    Posted on

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    Steve Haner

    by Steve Haner

    Last week’s PJM capacity price per megawatt-day, to start summer of 2027.

    The regional electric grid operator that serves Virginia held another of its periodic auctions to secure sufficient supply for the future last week and the price went up again, slightly higher than in last summer’s auction. Even worse news, PJM Interconnection fell short of securing its target amount needed to guarantee reliability.

    PJM has been holding auctions for future supply on an accelerated basis, and the one last week secured energy contracts for late 2027 through early 2028.  With the new contract period 18 months away, there is time for some adjustments by accelerating new supply or recalculating the forecasts.  The shortfall still set off alarm bells at a meeting of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).

    The price paid was $333 per megawatt-day, up slightly from the $329 per megawatt-day price in the July 2025 auction (for the 2026-27 rate period). Those prices are for the entire PJM region, so will apply to Dominion Energy, Appalachian Power Company, and the various regional electric cooperatives in Virginia. The cooperatives are the most sensitive to capacity pricing due to their reliance on purchased power. 

    Dominion’s need for purchased power is likely to spike substantially if President Trump’s Administration succeeds in cancelling the Dominion offshore wind project. A pause in construction of the 2.6-gigawatt facility was announced yesterday. The other four projects paused are outside the PJM territory, but if they do fully die it will change all the electricity math on the East Coast. 

    (more…)

  • Block the Flocks?

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    James A. Bacon

    According to the Virginia Center for Investigative Journalism, there are well over 1,000 Flock license-plate readers in Virginia. Here follows a Copilot AI-generated article about the cameras.

    Flock cameras in Virginia are automatic license plate readers (ALPRs) used for surveillance and law enforcement, recently regulated by new legislation aimed at balancing public safety and privacy concerns.

    Purpose and functionality

    Flock cameras are designed to capture images of vehicles, including license plates, make, model, and other identifying features. They are widely used across Virginia, with municipalities like Bridgewater employing these cameras to monitor traffic and assist in criminal investigations. For instance, Bridgewater’s five Flock cameras capture images of nearly 60,000 vehicles monthly, and the data collected has been accessed millions of times by law enforcement agencies.

    Map of Virginia showing locations and density of Flock license plate readers, with color-coded data points indicating different numbers of cameras.
    Flock camera locations in southeastern quadrant of the state. Source: Deflock. Click here to view interactive map.

    Recent legislative changes

    In 2025, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin signed a law regulating the use of Flock cameras. Key provisions of the law include:

    (more…)

  • FLASH: Trump Administration Stops CVOW Construction Work

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    Steve Haner

    by Steve Haner

    Virginian-Pilot photo.

    I was wondering why Dominion Energy had not issued its quarterly report on the progress of its Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project, or why when down there earlier this month, watching with binoculars from a high hotel room, I could see no sign of any activity on the construction site. Now we know.  

    WASHINGTON – The Department of the Interior announced today that it is pausing—effective immediately—the leases for all large-scale offshore wind projects under construction in the United States due to national security risks identified by the Department of War in recently completed classified reports. This pause will give the Department, along with the Department of War and other relevant government agencies, time to work with leaseholders and state partners to assess the possibility of mitigating the national security risks posed by these projects.

    “The prime duty of the United States government is to protect the American people,” said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. “Today’s action addresses emerging national security risks, including the rapid evolution of the relevant adversary technologies, and the vulnerabilities created by large-scale offshore wind projects with proximity near our east coast population centers. The Trump administration will always prioritize the security of the American people.”

    The following leases are paused:

    1. Vineyard Wind 1 (OCS-A 0501)
    2. Revolution Wind (OCS-A 0486)
    3. CVOW – Commercial (OCS-A 0483)
    4. Sunrise Wind (OCS-A 0487)
    5. Empire Wind 1 (OCS-A 0512)
    (more…)

  • Old School Journalism

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    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    by Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Joe Gatins, 1946-2013

    While recently lamenting to myself the sad state of local journalism, I began ruminating about the outstanding reporters for the Richmond Times-Dispatch who used to kept us informed. There was James Latimer, the dean of political reporters; Charles McDowell with his wry wit and columns about national politics; Shelly Rolfe and his insights into state finances; and Dale Eisman and his investigative reporting.

    But, my favorite was Joe Gatins, who covered the General Assembly for many years. Joe retired from the RTD in 1996 and died from a heart attack in 2013. In appearance, Joe seemed to be a reporter from a 1940’s movie. He seemed to be always disheveled. He wore wide floral print ties that were often stained. His tweed sport coat was frayed. 

    Despite his appearance, he was persistent and respected. “In my dealings with him, I found his word to be his bond,” Jay Cochran, former director of the state police Bureau of Criminal Investigation, said of him. “His reporting was always accurate, without editorializing or inflammatory language.”

    His obituary describes him as the “tormentor of Virginia’s political class.” One incident illustrates this role perfectly. Late during a General Assembly session, the Senate Finance Committee was meeting late in the afternoon. As it recessed for dinner, Sen. Ed Willey, the crusty chairman, admonished the members not to imbibe too much during dinner because they had a lot of work ahead. Nevertheless, when the committee members reassembled after dinner, it was obvious that several had had more than a couple of glasses of wine for dinner. Seriously perturbed, Willey lectured them soundly. Then, turning to Gatins, who was covering the committee meeting, he said (paraphrased), “Now, Joe, if you print any of this, I’m going to throw you out that window.” (The committee met on one of the upper stories of the old General Assembly Building.) The story in the next day’s edition of the RTD related the lecture Willey delivered to his members along with Willey’s threat to throw the reporter out the window.

    We need more “tormentors of the political class.”

  • Chap Petersen’s Least Favorite Things

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    James A. Bacon

    A light blue background featuring white snowflakes with sad faces and tears, alongside smaller decorative snowflakes.
    Crying snowflake image credit: Grok

    by Chap Petersen

    It’s nearly the end of the year. Christmas will soon be here. In the spirit of the season, we need to celebrate all the great things that happened and be glad.

    But what about the not-so-great things? Sometimes speaking them can be a form of purging. So, with apologies to Julie Andrews, here is my swan song for 2025: “A Few of My Least Favorite Things.”

    (sung to the tune of “My Favorite Things”)

    One party rule and Insider elections
    Redistricting bills with mid-decade corrections
    NFL seasons that last into spring
    These are a few of my (least) favorite things

    Illegal lockdowns and child face masking
    Blowing up speed boats without even asking  
    Large data centers and all that they bring
    These are a few of my (least) favorite things

    Political reps that all sound like each other
    Snowflakes that cry and cling to their mother
    Men that wear turtlenecks, girls that can’t sing
    These are a few of my (least) favorite things

    (more…)

  • What Is UVA’s Research Overhead?

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    James A. Bacon

    And how much is driven by DEI? UVA won’t say.

    Open the Books has published a new report, “Transparency Crisis,” examining the percentage of research funding devoted to university overhead. Nationally, 50% to 60% of federal research grants go to overhead, which is meant to cover university and departmental infrastructure and support. “Recent reports,” states Open the Books, “have suggested exorbitant overhead spending feeds into bloated university administrations that distract from academic inquiry, including through roles and spending related to diversity, equity and inclusion.”

    A laboratory scene with colorful beakers and flasks filled with liquids, featuring a central container overflowing with cash, illustrating the concept of financial issues related to university research funding, with the title 'TRANSPARENCY CRISIS' prominently displayed.

    The report did in-depth analyses of five universities, including the University of Virginia. I have excerpted the UVA section below. — JAB

    University of Virginia only gave Open the Books salary data for the years 2019, 2021, and 2024, although we asked for data from 2013, 2015, and 2017 as well. It is unclear why we did not receive the complete data that we asked for, but lack of transparency prevents the public from understanding historic trends in spending and staffing.

    Additionally, UVA was selected for this report because they had previously provided salary spending databases that included both departments and titles when Open the Books investigated the university in 2024. Having staff salary data that includes departmental information is essential for counting DEI-related positions. This time, UVA only provided titles with no department connection. Therefore, Open the Books cannot include DEI-related staffing as part of this analysis.

    From 2019-2023 UVA received $1.5 billion in federal R&D grants, or about $300 million per year. Grants came mostly from the Department of Health and Human Services ($1 billion). The Department of Defense (now referred to as the Department of War) and the National Science Foundation followed with about $180 million each.

    Because there is no public dataset with all overhead rates, the public relies on universities to post the rates themselves. UVA, unlike many universities, does not post their overhead rate on their website.

    Total university staff increased by about 2,000 over the five years of available data: from 9,799 in 2019 to 11,783 in 2024. Salary spending likewise grew from $966 million in 2019 and $1.3 billion in 2024.

    (more…)

  • Illegal Alien Charged With Murder In Fairfax County

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    James A. Bacon

    Kerry Dougherty provides an update on that illegal alien, Marvin Fernando Ortiz, charged with shooting his roommate a day after his release from Fairfax County jail. (See “Social Breakdown Update: Fairfax Edition.”)

    Ortiz

    That’s right. This illegal hairbag was in jail – and released – last week but the order to turn him over to ICE in order to deport his illegal derriere back to El Salvador, was ignored by the sanctuary county of Fairfax.

    Not only that, seems this particular illegal has been arrested at least six times in Fairfax County (God knows how many times in other jurisdictions) since 2020 on charges ranging from assault and battery, to brandishing a firearm to larceny and disorderly conduct.

    Why wasn’t Ortez deported the last six times he was in custody by Fairfax law enforcement?

    Instead, they waited until he killed someone to decide to actually lock him up without bail.

    It’s worth noting that Descano is not only a George Soros puppet, he’s also a major supporter and pal of governor-elect Abigail Spanberger.

    You’ve been warned, Virginia.

    (more…)

  • An Affordability Suggestion

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    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    by Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Gov.-elect Spanberger has released her plan to make Virginia more affordable. Forgive me if I do not see a lot in there that would quickly make life more affordable for most average Virginians. However, Dwayne Yancey of Cardinal News has identified a measure that could make a major expense more affordable for many Virginia families—college fees, intercollegiate athletic fees in particular.

    Yancey uses James Madison University as an example. Its football team is one of the 12 teams that made this year’s College Football Playoff. His research revealed that “JMU’s mandatory student fees for [intercollegiate] athletics are more than four times higher than all the other College Football Playoff schools combined.” To be fair, those other schools they have revenue from lucrative TV deals they or their conferences negotiated.

    The charges assessed by public institutions of higher education in Virginia can be divided into three categories—tuition, mandatory fees, and room and board. Most of the public attention is on tuition, but mandatory fees and room and board costs exceed tuition and are the fastest growing portion of higher education costs. For anyone interested in the costs of public institutions of higher education in Virginia, this report from the State Council of Higher Education in Virginia has a wealth of information.

    (more…)

  • Violent Crime Down 7% in 2024, Homicides by 19%

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    James A. Bacon

    Table displaying crime statistics by offense type for the years 2019 to 2024, including counts and rates for various crimes.
    Source: Crime in Virginia 2024

    Hooray, the Virginia State Police has finally published its Crime in Virginia 2024 report! The big news was that violent crime in the commonwealth dropped 7% that year compared to 2023. The number of homicides (murder and nonnegligent manslaughter) declined from 520 in 2023 to 421 in 2024 — 19 percent!

    There’s much more to unpack in the report, and I hope to hit the highlights in future posts. — JAB

  • VRS Slowly Closing the Funding Gap

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    But liabilities still exceed assets by 17 percent.

    Bar graph illustrating the funded status of Teachers and State Employees plans from fiscal year 2016 to projected fiscal year 2030, showing trends in percentage funded.

    Earlier this week, we discussed how deferred maintenance represents a form of hidden deficit spending. Underfunding pension contributions is another classic gambit of state government. Since bottoming out in the mid-2010s, the Virginia Retirement System has been inching closer each year toward full funding for teachers and state employees, according to this graph published by the Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission in its 2025 VRS Oversight Report.

    Eighty percent funding is often cited as a benchmark for a healthy pension system.

  • Jeanine’s Memes

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Comparison of two boats: a skiff loaded with barrels and a fishing boat engaged in a catch, illustrating the difficulty in distinguishing smuggling vessels from ordinary fishing boats.

    See more memes at The Bull Elephant

  • Beardsley Selected to Run UVA. Is a Blue-on-Blue Execution Next?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    I figured the University of Virginia’s presidential selection would appoint someone from within the University because who in their right mind would move across the country to Charlottesville knowing the kind of reception he or she would get from Virginia politicians:

    Tweet by L. Louise Lucas addressing Scott Beardsley about the separation of powers between government branches.
    (more…)

  • Bacon Meme of the Week

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A man and woman sitting at a table discussing a shopping list, with speech bubbles indicating their conversation about ketchup. The second part shows a hand holding a piece of paper with red streaks of what appears to be ketchup, along with a frustrated comment about not being able to read it.

  • A 10 Percent Increase in Real Wages?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Wow! … if true.

    From Secretary of Commerce Juan Pablo ‘s December newsletter: 

    Over the last year, we’ve announced 156 billion dollars in net new capital investment across the Commonwealth. That growth is broad-based. We currently have 220,000 open jobs, with 85,000 more on the way, plus another 40,000 construction jobs. Because of this opportunity, real wages in Virginia have increased by more than 10 percent over the past year. The national average is just 4.2 percent. That means real wages in Virginia are growing at more than twice the national rate.

    Real wages are a critical metric of economic wellbeing. If the 10-percent-increase-in-real-wages figure stands up to scrutiny, that’s an extraordinary accomplishment for Virginia. But does it stand up to scrutiny? Perhaps someone in our desiccated husk of a press corps could look into it.

    Update from Austin Stevens in the Governor’s Office:

    The Secretary’s newsletter was citing data from Virginia Works, which highlighted July 2024 to July 2025 data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) report for BLS. You can see the wage growth highlighted for total private was 9.42%, which was rounded up to 10%. In the newsletter, we walked people through the nominal increase while highlighting the national/CPI data to end up getting to real wages.

  • Gun Killings Down in 2024

    Posted on

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    James A. Bacon

    But homicides remained highly concentrated in nine old urban localities.

    Table showing gun-related homicides, rates, and trends over the last three years for various localities in Virginia.
    Source: JLARC

    From the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission report, “Effects of Community Gun Violence in Virginia“:

    Virginia ranks 23rd highest among states for violent firearm offenses, with 88 per 100,000 residents annually on average (slightly below the 50-state average of 93). Virginia’s statewide gun homicide rate was 5.4 per 100,000 people, which was 21st highest among the states and equal to the national average.

    In related matters… JLARC has access to Virginia’s 2024 homicide numbers. Why hasn’t the Virginia State Police published its 2024 Crime in Virginia report yet?

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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