Virginia is not doing enough to prevent Medicaid fraud. Our attempts are hampered by the dysfunctional design of the state regulatory system. They often fail because they cannot work. This piece will focus on behavioral health and recommend specific actions, but the entire healthcare regulatory system needs an overhaul. Absent that, we risk the stoppage of federal Medicaid contributions.
Ask Minnesota.
The costs of Medicaid Behavioral Health Services are immense, even in a single state. Last fiscal year, Virginia alone spent nearly $2 billion on services for mental health and substance use disorders out of $14.8 billion total Medicaid expenditures.
We also note that expenditures on Home and Community-based Services jumped from $400 million to $525 million per quarter over the same 18-month period. Payments to Lucas Lodge and more than a thousand other providers of community-based services for the intellectually and developmentally disabled (I/DD) services are included in that number.
Autism diagnosis and treatment are included in both figures.
The National Institutes of Health reports that autism misdiagnosis or late diagnosis is highly common, but is often sought partially because an autism diagnosis “is validating.”
Because autism relies on behavioral observation rather than lab tests, traits are frequently masked to fit in or confused with other conditions like ADHD, social anxiety, or bipolar disorder. This can lead to years of inappropriate treatment and immense stress.
Autism diagnosis and treatment are a growth industry, and the Medicaid money thrown at the problem is staggering. So, oversight to prevent fraud committed by companies, often owned by private equity firms, and by individual providers, is crucial.
Virginia apparently does not yet see it that way. The feds do.
Doing that groove thing. AI-generated image by Grok.
by Chap Petersen
A great advantage of being out of power is that you can speak honestly about what’s going on — and not care who’s offended.
Abigail Spanberger served in Congress and ran for Governor as a moderate Democrat, standing apart from the AOC-Mandani socialist wing. By running on that brand (and largely avoiding actual issues), she won with 57% of the vote.
Then the 2026 session convened with Democrats holding all levers of power — and Spanberger was faced with a constitutional measure designed to “temporarily” dilute the votes of rural Virginians. Based on money and demographics, the referendum was sure to pass — and just as sure to enrage the 48.5% who were being politically erased.
So much for bipartisanship. Predictably, her popularity dropped.
At that point, the Governor had two options: pull a “Northam” and simply sign every Democratic bill or actually govern like a leader. Thankfully she (mostly) chose the latter.
In the past two weeks, the Governor has vetoed multiple flawed bills which passed on a party-line vote: creating a retail marijuana market, mandating collective bargaining for local governments, and making “menopause” a protected category under the VA Human Rights Act (yes, really).
As politicians threaten the independence of the judiciary and arrogate the power of the legislature over all other branches, maybe some remedial reading is in order?
The Fredericksburg Luminaria — rained out this year, but an impressive and important reminder as to what we honor on Memorial Day.
by Shaun Kenney
After a rather shocking — and by shocking, I mean disappointing — exchange on social media with a sitting Virginia state senator regarding his misuse of Federalist 51 to insist that the legislature outweighs the other two branches of government, it dawned on me that this particular individual has perhaps never actually read the Federalist Papers much less Federalist 51.
A few things out of the gate. The Federalist Papers were written to describe the limitations on the federal government vis a vis the United States Constitution, not the state constitutions themselves. Madison is widely believed to have written Federalist 51, and though he argues that because the legislative branch is the more powerful precisely because it is accountable to the people, he does not argue that it is superior to the other branches of the federal government.
In fact, the nature of legislative power being as such, Madison argues that the check on this power is a bicameral legislature — one being directly elected by the people themselves (the U.S. House of Representatives) to represent the demos and the other being elected by the state legislatures (the U.S. Senate) so as to represent the aristos. Of course, the 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution eliminated the U.S. Senate as imagined by the Founding Fathers, and the state constitutions — though protected by the 10th Amendment — are presently subject to federal understandings of right and law as the 14th Amendment progressively restricts the states’ ability to infringe upon rights protected by the U.S. Constitution.
If you have never read the Federalist Papers, or if the last time you bumped into them was either in a high school or college classroom, there are a handful that are considered requisite reading:
Scrolling through X the other day I stumbled on an amusing post by someone who asked AI to “roast” Virginia Beach. The result was spot on.
Impossibly accurate.
So I decided to give it a try.
I asked ChatGPT to produce a “roast” of Virginia Beach. The prompts I gave only mentioned that all of the ocean views are obscured by hotels, that the sun sets at 3 p.m. on the resort strip beach as it slips behind the buildings and that the beachy atmosphere is a little dicey after dark.
In under one minute, this is what our friendly bot created:
Virginia Beach is what happens when a city looks at a gorgeous stretch of Atlantic coastline and says, “You know what this needs? More timeshare architecture.” Somewhere along the way, local planners decided the best use of priceless oceanfront property was to line it with towering concrete hotel blocks that resemble a mid-budget casino district fleeing inland from Atlantic City. The result is a beach where the ocean is technically visible, provided you are standing at a precise 14-degree angle between a Marriott parking garage and a frozen daiquiri stand.
The city’s zoning philosophy appears to have been developed by a committee whose only guiding principle was: “What if absolutely everything cast a shadow?” By mid-afternoon, the resort strip darkens like an eclipse simulation at a science museum. The sun doesn’t so much set in Virginia Beach as file a noise complaint and leave early. Families arrive expecting golden coastal sunsets and instead spend half their vacation wrapped in damp towels beneath the looming silhouette of twelve stories of discounted balcony suites and an abandoned surf shop called something like “Gnarly Pete’s.”Continue reading.
The teacher shortage is a national problem and has been for a number of years. We have been provided data on this from VDOE as each year since 2022 through the teacher vacancy rates that have been published. However, the teacher vacancy rate has two significant components: the recruitment of new professionals into the field and retaining people who are successful or have the capacity to be. Currently, Virginia lacks comprehensive, aggregate teacher retention data to measure the latter.
A fragmented landscape
In Virginia, teacher shortages vary. According to the Virginia Department of Education’s Staffing and Vacancy data, 2.54% of teaching positions went unfilled this year, which was down from a high of 3.86% in 2024. In 2026 the regional vacancy rates ranged from 1.07% in Southwest to 4.61% in Tidewater and the division rates ranged from 0% to 33.66%.
Enticing new people into the teaching field is largely driven by financial compensation. College students weigh a number of factors when determining their career path goals, and earning potential is certainly among them. The General Assembly has made efforts in recent years to increase teaching salaries, but so too have other states.
Faced with a potential Democratic wave this fall, Republican legislators across the nation continue their efforts to placate Donald Trump by adopting unprecedented mid-cycle gerrymanderings designed to protect their majority in Congress.
Emboldened by the U.S. Supreme Court’s evisceration of the Voting Rights Act in the Callais decision, Republicans just adopted new maps in Florida and Tennessee to target Democratic incumbents, including some of most senior African American representatives in the House. Thirteen states will have new congressional districts for 2026 midterms; South Carolina and Louisiana will likely join the list soon. The changes give Republicans more chances to preserve their House majority this fall.
Remember how we got here
When President Donald Trump and Republican leaders in Texas decided last year on their redistricting gambit, they ignited a political firestorm that threatens to destroy yet another political guardrail. North Carolina and Missouri followed Texas, passing new maps in fall, 2025. California then responded; in November, the state’s voters approved a constitutional amendment to counter the Republican actions.
This weekend is the unofficial start of summer, and summer and early fall weather can induce disasters in this state. We’ll look at the hurricane threat to all of Virginia, not just the coasts.
Coasts. Hurricanes get the most press and preparations on the coasts.
Hampton Roads homeowners expect the occasional hurricane, and our low-lying geography draws our attention, but our official regional evacuation plans are a mystery to most here.
(Hampton Roads area) EVACUATION ROUTES If officials order an evacuation for your area, use one of these designated routes. Become familiar with these routes and plan to leave early to avoid major traffic delays. PENINSULA » Interstate 64 West » Interstate 664 North » U.S. Route 17 North » U.S. Route 60 West » Route 143 During severe weather, the Jamestown-Scotland Ferry is removed from service and should NOT be considered part of your evacuation plan. SOUTHSIDE » 264 West and Interstate 64 Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel » Interstate 664 North Monitor Merrimac Memorial Bridge-Tunnel » U.S. Route 17 North » U.S. Route 58 West » U.S. Route 460 West » Route 10 West The Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel is NOT an evacuation route. For closure information, visit www.cbbt.com.
Fortunately, the emergency routes for Peninsula and Eastern Shore residents and visitors are intuitive, if undoubtedly in the event choked with vehicles. But good luck to those of us in the Southside. Evacuation from here will prove to be the biggest shuffling of a deck of a million motor vehicles in state history. EASTERN SHORE All Eastern Shore residents will use U.S. Route 13 North toward Salisbury, Maryland
“Leaving early” means departing before a hurricane’s landfall is forecast.
Far less predictable and historically more deadly in the Commonwealth are river and mountain flooding.
Maybe it isn’t Justice Kelsey that needs to be worried in 2027, but a coalition of Virginians sick and tired of Dan Helmer’s lust. For power. Of course.
Delegate Dan Helmer (D-bag) in his natural habitat. Also — 11 stripes on the flag?
by Shaun Kenney
Who is this magical “we” Dan Helmer is talking about? Have the Democrats already decided that Kelsey must go? Are Democrats seriously contemplating a palace coup against Virginia’s judiciary branch? Who else knows about this conspiracy? Who is the ringleader of this conspiracy? What do people think the reaction across Virginia will be if Justice Kelsey is punished for not obeying the Democratic Party’s political desires?
Questions we ought to be asking — but aren’t.
Questions we would be asking if a Republican threatened a Virginia Supreme Court justice like this — but aren’t.
My antipathy for Helmer knows few boundaries. Not just that the man is wrong, but I can only have so many individuals come and talk to me about Helmer’s “reign of shame” in Richmond and elsewhere that you begin to observe the old Virginia dictum: a gentleman does not lie, cheat, or steal nor do they associate with those who do.
Helmer is not a gentleman — and let that carry all the insinuation and odium one might conceive.
Fairfax County’s school board members are scheduled to vote today on the fiscal year 2027 $4.1 billion budget. Although there will be a $197 million increase in funds from last year, district leaders are still pointing to what they describe as a $28 million “budget gap,” referring to the county’s Board of Supervisors not transferring FCPS’s full requested amount. (Editor’s note: the School Board adopted the budget last night, a 5.0% increase over 2026.)
Rather than addressing administrative bloat, district leadership is shifting resources away from classrooms to close the so-called “budget gap.” A Freedom of Information Act request revealed that FCPS spent $272 million on salaries for 2,346 non-school-based administrators in fiscal year 2026. Meanwhile, the district plans to reduce school reserve staffing by $8.8 million, eliminating 70 positions, which raises serious concerns. As class sizes increase in Fall 2026, some grades may require additional teachers, but reducing reserve staffing will limit flexibility to respond to enrollment shifts and will ultimately contribute to larger class sizes and reduced instructional support.
Increasing administrative spending while simultaneously cutting school-level resources and increasing class sizes raises serious concerns about fiscal priorities. And a 36% increase in the superintendent’s salary since 2019, as shown in the table below, has not coincided with improved student outcomes. In fact, since 2019, Fairfax County Public Schools’ average SAT score has declined by 35 points.
Dan Helmer as the Incredible Hulk with rage face. Image credit: Grok
Poor Dan Helmer.
No one wants to be a member of Congress more than this 44-year-old man, yet so far he’s been unable to win a Democrat primary election.
Not for lack of trying.
For the time being, he’ll have to be content with his seat in the House of Delegates representing the 40th District. Small potatoes compared with Congress.
It must be frustrating. On paper, Helmer has it all: West Point grad, Rhodes Scholar, Army vet.
And yet, the voters in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District just aren’t into him.
He tried to get the Democrat nomination in that blue district in 2018, but lost to Jennifer Wexton who went on to serve until 2024 when an illness forced her to step down.
In 2024 Helmer lost the Democrat primary to Suhas Subrananyam, who is presently serving in Congress.
Helmer’s hopes soared when Virginia Democrats cooked up their illegal referendum that would redraw congressional districts across the the commonwealth. That’s when the infamous 7th Lobster District was born.
One of the claws of the lobster reportedly included Helmer’s neighborhood.
At last! Helmer had a congressional district carved out just for him. Continue reading.
Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger vetoed an expansion of collective bargaining rights last week. Her allies in the labor movement weren’t pleased.
Photo credit: Governor of Virginia’s webpage
Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s rejection of a new law expanding collective bargaining rights for teachers has led to a division in the state’s Democratic coalition. It also generated discontent with a figure thought to be among her party’s future national leaders.
Last Thursday, Spanberger vetoed legislation that would have allowed public school teachers, among other public-sector employees, to form unions and negotiate over their wages and working conditions throughout Virginia. At present, those workers can organize only in localities that opt into such arrangements; those number fewer than 20 of the state’s 133 city- or county-level governments.
Many of the governor’s supporters in labor were outraged by the decision, calling it a “betrayal” of a key constituency. One of the largest unions in the state, the Virginia Education Association, endorsed Spanberger’s campaign almost a full year before last fall’s election, putting their membership of more than 40,000 teachers and school personnel behind a high-profile effort to retake the governor’s mansion from Republican control.
VEA President Carol Bauer referenced her organization’s efforts in an interview with The 74, calling the veto “a great disappointment.”
“Our members campaigned for Gov. Spanberger on the promise that she supported workers, supported affordability, and supported collective bargaining, and we were hopeful,” Bauer said. “We had every indication she was going to sign a collective bargaining bill.”
A transportation infrastructure built around the primacy of bicycles works OK for the Dutch, but Virginians would never accept it.
by James A. Bacon
Amsterdammers love their bicycles. They ride their two-wheelers in the sun, in the drizzle and in the rain. They bedeck them in flowers and deck them out with baskets. Like the Inuit who have words to distinguish between different types of snow, the Dutch have an elaborate vocabulary to describe bicycle accessories, such as kinderzitje (child seats), fietskar (bike trailers), and bakfiets (large boxes mounted in front of the rider that carry groceries, children, or anything else that fits).
According to CoPilot AI, there are about 800,000 bicycles in Amsterdam, a city of roughly one million inhabitants, compared to maybe 400,000 automobiles. The city is a dream come true for smart growthers. In the city’s historic district, bicycles exceed cars in the streets at any given time by prodigious numbers, and both are outnumbered by the swarm of pedestrians.
A pedestrian/bicycle-centric society is a desideratum of the green, zero-carbon future. Amsterdam, Copenhagen and some smaller European cities are held up as models to be emulated in the United States. Whether Amsterdam’s bike-centric model could be replicated in Virginia, however, is doubtful. Whether anyone in an American city would even want such a transportation system is questionable.
A bicycle-centric transportation network is not traffic nirvana. CoPilot notes that there were more than 5,000 traffic accidents in Amsterdam in 2022, about half of which involved bicycles. I know about that from personal experience. (More on that in a bit).
Then there’s a factor that no one ever talks about: bicycles trash up the landscape. Those 800,000 bicycles have to be stored somewhere. Usually outdoors. The city has endless, long racks of them. And they are ugly…. as in uuuuugly. Amsterdam would be a much more beautiful city without them.
The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….
This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.
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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.
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