by Matt Hurt

The teacher shortage is a national problem and has been for a number of years. We have been provided data on this from VDOE as each year since 2022 through the teacher vacancy rates that have been published. However, the teacher vacancy rate has two significant components: the recruitment of new professionals into the field and retaining people who are successful or have the capacity to be. Currently, Virginia lacks comprehensive, aggregate teacher retention data to measure the latter.

A fragmented landscape

In Virginia, teacher shortages vary. According to the Virginia Department of Education’s Staffing and Vacancy data, 2.54% of teaching positions went unfilled this year, which was down from a high of 3.86% in 2024. In 2026 the regional vacancy rates ranged from 1.07% in Southwest to 4.61% in Tidewater and the division rates ranged from 0% to 33.66%.

Enticing new people into the teaching field is largely driven by financial compensation. College students weigh a number of factors when determining their career path goals, and earning potential is certainly among them. The General Assembly has made efforts in recent years to increase teaching salaries, but so too have other states. 

Simultaneously, inflation has eroded the purchasing power of these legislative adjustments. New teachers in the division where I first began my teaching career made $2,000 less this year than I did my first year when controlling for inflation.  

Why school culture outweighs capital

The second half of the teacher shortage puzzle is a school’s or a division’s ability to retain good teachers. While salary does factor into the individual decisions of teachers, many teachers tell me that the culture and climate of their school matters more. I have heard stories from multiple teachers that they drive past multiple other schools on their way to work each day, at some of which they would earn a higher salary, just to get to their school. When I ask them why, they explain that their school is like a big family and they feel like they belong. What is interesting is that these schools are also high performing despite being high-poverty schools. Culture matters in teacher retention which also coincides with better student outcomes.

How vacancy metrics mask turnover

Unfortunately, the state’s reliance on vacancy rates can obscure systemic problems, creating an inflated impression of stability in some schools and divisions. The teacher vacancy rates mask other factors which cause a prettier picture to be painted than actually exists. For example, there are many provisional teachers in classrooms, and these folks appear in the data as filled positions. That being said, credentialism is likely overrated as I have witnessed many provisional teachers who have produced wonderful results. However, many of these folks do not intend to be teachers and are just working in these positions until they find work in their preferred field.

Another way that these numbers are skewed is that foreign teachers are brought in on a temporary basis. Several divisions resort to working with companies (such as i-RISE USA, International Alliance Group, and USA Employment LLC) to fill vacant positions. These companies recruit teachers from places like the Philippines and Jamaica. These international teachers can work up to three years on their initial visas and, therefore, are only a temporary solution to this problem.

A Data-Driven Path Forward

A systemic remedy requires targeted data. Hopefully HB1437/SB785, legislation that was passed by the General Assembly and signed into law by Governor Spanberger, will provide some much-needed insight into teacher retention. The legislation mandates that school boards report comprehensive teacher exit data annually, including the exact reasons for departure and whether those exits were voluntary

By compiling this data, school boards, division superintendents, and building administrators will finally possess the empirical diagnostic tools required to evaluate their retention issues. Armed with specific exit insights, leaders can actively adjust administrative policies to fix the localized workplace issues driving teachers away.

Matt Hurt is director of the Comprehensive Instructional Program.