Bacon's Rebellion

Today’s The Washington Post reports that the METRO extension to Dulles has passed another hurdle. A week ago a blogger noted that the Federal Transit Administration gave the METRO extension to Dulles low marks in its evaluation of proposed new projects seeking federal funding. The current plan ranked “Medium” or “Medium-Low” in 7 of the 9 categories.

Two points:

1. The scores were probably fair for the current plan. However, the evaluations in at least categories of Overall Project Justification, Cost Effectiveness, Land Use, Mobility Improvement and Operating Finance would have been far higher if there was solid state/municipal/private commitment to have supporting land uses in the station areas. [See our column at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com “Rail-To-Dulles Realities” 4 January 2004.]

2. According to the summary of the status of the federal transportation reauthorization we have seen, the chances of getting federal funding from the current administration with grades like that are slim to none.

It is hard to understand how intelligent people can continue to propose new transport facilities without relating them to the distribution of travel demand.

In the case of METRO that means the station areas settlement pattern. In the 80s S/PI started capsulizing the problem with the distribution of travel demand and METRO’s capacity this way:

“Most of the METRO trains, leave most of the METRO stations, most of the time essentially empty.”

This is not a condemnation of the idea to build a METRO system in the National Capital Subregion or of management of the system (there is plenty of grounds for condemnation in other areas of operation), it is a condemnation of the municipal, state and federal failure to create supportive land uses in the METRO station areas.

To make METRO function well it will take more than balanced development at each village-scale station area. It will require a balance travel demand among all stations so there is healthy ridership on every train all day and into the night.

Until there is a plan that does creates balanced ridership and Balanced Communities, extending METRO is a waste of money, just as the FTA analysis suggests.

EMR

I saw a casting call in today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch “Weekend” magazine–they’re looking for 1,000 extras for a Touchstone Television pilot called “Commander-in-Chief,” starring Geena Davis as the first female president. The open casting call will be held Saturday, 10-6, at The Shops at Willow Lawn in Richmond.

The Virginia Film Office must be doing cartwheels. Drudge is leading with the story, using a huge picture of Ms. Davis.

Numerous bloggers commented last week on Marc Fisher’s column in the Washington Post about the Kaine-Kilgore match-up. That’s supposed to be Virginia Pundit Watch shtick, but, hey, I thrive on competition.

Mr. Fisher was just online and I asked him several questions, including these:

Manassas Park, Va.: Enjoyed your column on Kaine and Kilgore. Any chance you will meet with George Fitch, Kilgore’s challenger, and/or Russ Potts, the independent?
Marc Fisher: I never pass on a chance to hear the wit and wisdom of Russ Potts. You may know him as a Virginia state senator, but he was also an executive in the Chicago White Sox organization and has one of the most interesting life stories of any politician in the region.
I don’t know Fitch, but I’ll be out on the campaign trail and will see how he’s doing.
Fairfax, Va.: Russ Potts wants to restore the car tax. Do you think that’s the ticket to the Virginia governor’s mansion?
Marc Fisher: Well, he’s not about to put that on a bumper sticker. But his central point–that Virginia needs to pay the price for its massive growth, and that budget gimmickry is not the answer–is one that many voters do take seriously. On the other hand, Walter Mondale could give us a nice talk about the electoral effectiveness of lecturing us on the need for higher taxes.

I recommend reading the whole chat for comments on NVA secession, Ten Commandment yahoos in Virginia, and the notion that the Virginia tax surplus could be returned to taxpayers.

“I saw the Gene McCarthy campaign, and Bobby Kennedy in ’68. I saw the early days of Ross Perot in ’92, and then John McCain’s ‘Straight Talk Express.’ Russ Potts’ campaign was just like them, only different.”

R. Butler Cadware III has analyzed politics for over 50 years. At a Bacon’s Rebellion symposium on the 2005 election, he, like other pundits and political observers, struggled to explain the Russ Potts phenomenon. “He just came out of nowhere and made mincemeat of Kaine and Kilgore. We had no idea there was such a groundswell behind his candidacy. He was getting hundreds of letters a week to his Senate office, begging him to run. Who knew?”

Tia Diddy traced Potts’ success in winning the race to his dramatic announcement that he was a candidate. “The room was packed with cheering supporters. Teachers had called in sick to attend. Highway construction contractors left job sites and stood in the back, wearing hard hats with “Potts ’08” stickers on them. When Potts declared that he would bring back the car tax, he elecrified the crowd and turned Virginia politics on its head.”

Before Russ Potts, it had been an article of faith that Virginians hated the car tax and wanted it abolished. From Mark Warner through Tim Kaine to Jerry Kilgore, every major Virginia politican had at least paid lip service to completing Jim Gilmore’s promise to end the supposedly unpopular tax. Potts showed that the conventional wisdom was wrong. Not only did Virginians long for a return to the car tax, they responded with enthusiasm to other Potts initiatives to raise taxes.

Potts attracted adoring throngs at his every campaign appearance. Metro trains were held up on the Orange line whenever Potts greeted rush hour commuters and promised “more trains with televisions showing ESPN.” Citizens lined VRE tracks when Potts made “whistlestop” tours. Reporter Jess Shapro found Potts’ “Build a Road” and “Add a Lane” events the most heavily attended. “Potts would drive out to the countryside and point to a large open space. He’d tell folks their gas tax increase would go to a sorely needed new road, ‘right through there.’ His words would be drowned out by cheers. He’d stop on Rt. 66, get up on top of an SUV, and declare a new lane was needed. The honking from cars stuck in traffic was deafening.”

Potts cemented his victory at the first debate when he stared into the camera and declared, “Mr. Warner, tear down this tax cut.”

Kilgore tried to counter Potts by supporting a car tax on every vehicle except 4 x 4s with gun racks. Kaine called for a car tax on everything except mini-vans used to transport children to Sunday School. None of these proposals could stop the Potts juggernaut.

Attendees of the conference would not predict how Gov. Potts would govern and whether he would be able to push through his tax increases. They were impressed, however with the talented Connecticut consultants he placed in cabinet positions and were not suprised that his first executive order was to endorse Mark Warner for President in 2008.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball analyzing the potential GOP candidates for president in 2008 is out. He had previously reviewed the Democratic field. Claiming the mind “boggles” at all the possibilities, the UVA Professor is not bullish on our junior Senator: “Senator George Allen of Virginia has a sunny disposition and a successful record in the Old Dominion, but does he have the stature and talent to make a credible presidential nominee?”

Many Republicans will revel in one juicy scenario that the “most quoted man in America” presents. How about Dick Cheney resigning for health reasons, being replaced by Condi Rice, and then having VP Rice getting the nomination in ’08?

If there are three in the race for governor it takes 33.4% to win. If there are four does it take 25.1% to win?

If so, what about this scenario? George Fitch does not smoke out Kilgore and Kilgore gets the Republican nomination in spite of his tax and spend hidden agenda. Then Fitch runs as an independent. Fitch has nothing to lose having alienated the party regulars.

This provides a true conservative (Fitch) and a true old timey Business-As-Usual (Potts) for the voters to choose between. Potts gets the money from the Road Gang, Fitch gets energy and grass roots support from those who want fundamental change. Either one could get over 25.1%

Kilgore and Kaine are left with the party regulars. This is a problem because as the two “major” parties have fine tuned their ability to win two-way races by 51% they become more vulnerable to attacks from someone outside the club.

By avoiding the issues that will cause them to lose rather than stressing what they stand for, the “major” parties have shrunk their tent and have fewer active members as a percentage of eligible voters. In fact both are minority parties, especially if you count those who do not bother to vote.

Could be interesting.

EMR

An editorial in The Virginian-Pilot quotes Sen. Walter Stosch, R-Henrico, raising a valid point about the way Virginia accounts for its budget surplus. “What [would] Virginia owe if all the outstanding bills were suddenly called due? Practically speaking, that would never happen in one fell swoop. But the items Stosch wanted to smoke out compete for revenue and will have to be dealt with sooner or later. “

Stosch specifically focuses on the following:

• $500 million to $800 million in deferred maintenance on state buildings
• $223 million in car-tax reimbursements to state localities delayed until July
• $128 in obligations to the Virginia Prepaid Tuition Program
• Income tax refunds, court orders to clean up the Chesapeake Bay, borrowing from the Literary Fund.

All valid issues. The state should know what all of its obligations are. And it’s a shame that Stosch’s bill calling for a study of these obligations wasn’t passed.

But… I’d feel a whole lot better if Stosch would use his accounting expertise to find ways of cutting state spending, not just to justify tax increases. About that $500 – $800 billion in deferred building maintenance…. How about a companion study examining what percentage of state office buildings are vacant at any given time and how many hundreds of millions of dollars annually could be saved by moving to a tele-working/hoteling arrangement?

Somehow, that kind of thinking never seems to occur to either Sen. Stosch or the Virginian-Pilot.

This communique from Del. Albert Pollard, D-Lancaster, in a letter written to his constituents, was passed along Barnie Day, who for some inexplicable quirk of Blogger, was unable to post it to the blog himself.

What is unwritten about the “droopy drawers” bill is that the body was ready to defeat the measure. Its chief patron, Delegate Algie Howell, is a very unassuming and sincere person who, quite frankly, does not hold a firm command of jurisprudence and practical application of legislation. He is simply a neighborhood barber from an African-American community who was elected because of his individual acts of kindness within his community. I believe the body was poised to defeat HB1981. We collectively realized what the rest of the world realized the problematic nature of the bill. However, when the delegate from Chesapeake stood up and railed not only against the bill but also against Delegate Howell, the mood shifted in a palatable way. The delegate’s remarks personally attacked Delegate Howell and broke the rules of the House with such mean-spirited words. It was then that the body passed the bill, not so much because we were enamored with the resolution but because of the overreaction by the delegate from Chesapeake. It is easy to say one would never cast such a vote, but I believe that most people in similar circumstances would do the same. Needless to say, with the international publicity it was wise of the Senate to immediately take up the measure and kill the bill. I can also say in retrospect that given the benefits of hindsight the whole issue would have been dealt with in a different way.

The Virginia Progressive is the latest Democratic organ that’s all excited about Sen. Russ Potts’ candidacy. The enemy of my enemy is my friend, after all.

Some Republican blogs, when they are not trashing Potts, are trying to convince themselves that he’ll take votes from Kaine, not Kilgore. Of course, the “bring back the car tax” demographic may not have much of a voting track record.

Potts has said he only needs 34% of the vote in a three-way race. My questions are these: assuming Potts gets on the ballot (a big if, in my opinion), do we want a Governor who only got 34% of the vote? Do we want a Governor who doesn’t get 50%? Would a Governor without a majority alter the balance of power with the General Assembly?

Via Norm over at One Man’s Trash, we learn that the Cato Institute is releasing a report card on the Nation’s Governors this morning.

A preview of the report appeared in the Wall Street Journal (pay site) yesterday. Apparently, Virginia’s Governor Warner got a “D” for raising taxes. “F” students were “bi-partisan” Governors Taft (R) of Ohio and Rendell (D) of Pennsylvania. Schwarzenegger got an “A” for cutting spending and Bill Richardson of New Mexico got the highest grade for a Democrat, a “B.”

It wasn’t that long ago that we were reviewing the “A” Governing magazine gave Governor Warner for raising taxes.

Would you be willing to take a subconscious test on prejudices?

Hey, it’s a snow day … and there’s nothing better to do! You can self-test your unconscious levels of prejudice about age, gender, race, etc.

https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/

A few weeks ago, the Washington Post published an article on Project Implicit, “See No Bias” by Shankar Vedantam.

The WP sub-headline wrote, “Many Americans believe they are not prejudiced. Now a new test provides powerful evidence that a majority of us really are. Assuming we accept the results, what can we do about it?”

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27067-2005Jan21.html?referrer=emailarticle

Read more about the project, visit: http://projectimplicit.net/media.php

Ironically, the study is based at Harvard University. The president of Harvard University, Dr. Lawrence H. Summers, recently made controversial closed-door remarks about the shortage of women in the sciences and engineering started a campaign against the gender science bias.

Many politicians and elected officials claim they are not prejudiced, especially members of the Democratic Party who champion diversity issues and social engineering legislation. So the Blue Dog double-dared a well-known gay attorney and a number of Democratic activist to take the bias test, but most declined.

I’m not surprised either. Democratic liberalism is dead and has been replaced with the self-centered advocacy of the special interests. In the Commonwealth, the DPVA is a functional ambivalent entity.

But is the gender-based test nothing more than token junk science?

Personally, I thought the test was highly inaccurate, but humorous and fun. After all, I am what I am. And I’ve played this political correct game before …

In the early 1970s, I attended the first open space, self-progressing high school on the East coast. I never dealt with HS guidance counselors — and instead of Home room, I attended “Who am I” sessions where ‘we’ students daily explored our inter-feelings. The class hugged a lot, held hands, sat in a circle, etc. The school attracted an eclectic crowd of liberal educators along with a diverse student enrollment. It’s was vastly different from a tradition high school.

In hindsight, I consider myself a Junius-thinking political byproduct of a failed 1970s left-wing social experiment for a pre-utopian society (A.K.A. the political correct global village).

For the record: That’s why I’m a Blue Dog.

The Feb. 28, 2005, edition of Bacon’s Rebellion has been posted online. Contents include:

Pitching a Fitch. Warrenton Mayor George Fitch wants to be your next governor. Outraged by waste in government, he’s the one candidate totally committed to cutting taxes and reining in state spending. by James A. Bacon

Three Levels of Autonomy. Commonwealth universities didn’t get to Charterland, but they did pin some serious new commitments on the General Assembly. by Doug Koelemay

Think We Could Arrange a Trade? Virginia’s John Chichester wants to raise taxes. North Carolina’s Marc Basnight prefers to cut spending. Who would you want on your team? by Patrick McSweeney

How the Senate Really Operates. Richard Saslaw and Russell Potts revealed the true temperament of the state Senate by uttering in public opinions normally expressed behind closed doors. by Patrick McSweeney

Interstate Crime. Business As Usual interests are calling for bigger, wider Interstates to improve inter-regional mobility. The schemes won’t work because they don’t create Balanced Communities. by EM Risse

Amendamania. Legislators have filed an unprecedented 76 amendments to the state constitution this session. Someone needs to rein them in. by Barnie Day

In the End… Virginia has survived another session of the General Assembly. All things considered, it wasn’t a bad year. by Barnie Day

Why Shield the State? Ben Cline has a sound idea: Government should avoid doing things that the private sector could do just as well. It’s baffling that he can’t he get HB 2556 enacted into law. by Geoffrey Segal

Four Mo’ LG Candidates. The Blue Dog continues his environmental scan of the candidates for Lieutenant Governor. by Steven Sisson

Contributions, Sexual Politics and Sprawl. The Blue Dog completes his survey of the men and women vying for the Lieutenant Governorship. by Steven Sisson

Railroaded Again. An unelected group, the Commonwealth Transportation Board, is raising rates on the Dulles Toll Road to pay for METRO improvements. I call that taxation without representation. by Philip Rodokanakis

Republicans Asunder. If the Virginia GOP stands for everything from higher taxes to tax cuts, does it really stand for anything? Does anything unite the party beyond a hunger for power? by James Atticus Bowden

Reforming Higher Ed. The “chartered university” proposal has morphed into a comprehensive overhaul of higher education in Virginia. Many of the changes are good ideas — but they’re no substitute for more state support. by Jesse Ferguson

Virginia Pundit Watch: Special General Assembly-Bashing Edition. by Will Vehrs

Nice & Curious Questions: Virginia Prize Winners. by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs

After reading Northern Crown‘s experience trying to contact Republican candidates via their websites, I don’t know if the internet is wildly overrated as a campaign tool or if some candidates are so totally clueless they should be dismissed out of hand.

Commonwealth Conservative gets it: “As a candidate, when voters come to you, you need to cultivate that relationship.”

Governor Mark Warner has turned state government upside-down in an effort to do more business with small, women, and minority owned (SWAM) firms and the thanks he gets are headlines like this one in the Daily Press: Warner’s plan to raise contracting diversity falls short.

The article is full of innuendo that procurement officals are ignoring the Governor’s wishes and just waiting for him to leave office, that “special deals” are cut with non-SWAM vendors, and that somehow the electronic procurement system is “stacked” against SWAM firms. If true, these are serious charges, worthy of high-level investigation.

What’s missing from the article, though, is any attempt at investigative journalism to give even one factual example supporting the innuendo. What’s also missing is a fair-minded review of whether the sagging numbers reported for SWAM procurement are valid.

Someday a journalist is going to take the time to watch a sample number of SWAM firms submit bids on openly posted contracts, then use procurement tools that are in place to determine if any SWAM firms were unfairly denied contracts they deserved. Until then, this carping appears to be sour grapes. Governor Warner has done plenty to open up the system to SWAM firms and give them a presumptive advantage, even inviting a backlash by non-SWAM firms. Maybe SWAM firms aren’t doing all they can to return the Governor’s faith in them.

Well folks, no surprise here. The Washington Post is wasting no time–they’re already on record supporting Chichester’s proposed tax increase next year.

“Taxes, fees, tolls — all must be in the mix if Virginia is to keep moving. Senate Finance Committee Chairman John H. Chichester (R-Northumberland) said that this year’s “minuscule” compromise “isn’t even a beginning toward the solution to our transportation dilemma.” After the fall House elections, Mr. Chichester plans to push for a package of so-far unspecified taxes, probably including a much-needed increase in the gas tax. If candidates continue to paper over the severity of congestion and its economic consequences, voters should demand some truthful responses.”

How come we only hear talk of tax increases and we never hear anything about the need for government accountability? You still have the Wilder Commission report gathering dust and no one is talking about implementing some of its recommendations to reduce the massive fraud, waste, and abuse that goes on in most government programs.