Bacon's Rebellion

A REAL RACE FOR GOVERNOR

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by

James A. Bacon
in

If there are three in the race for governor it takes 33.4% to win. If there are four does it take 25.1% to win?

If so, what about this scenario? George Fitch does not smoke out Kilgore and Kilgore gets the Republican nomination in spite of his tax and spend hidden agenda. Then Fitch runs as an independent. Fitch has nothing to lose having alienated the party regulars.

This provides a true conservative (Fitch) and a true old timey Business-As-Usual (Potts) for the voters to choose between. Potts gets the money from the Road Gang, Fitch gets energy and grass roots support from those who want fundamental change. Either one could get over 25.1%

Kilgore and Kaine are left with the party regulars. This is a problem because as the two “major” parties have fine tuned their ability to win two-way races by 51% they become more vulnerable to attacks from someone outside the club.

By avoiding the issues that will cause them to lose rather than stressing what they stand for, the “major” parties have shrunk their tent and have fewer active members as a percentage of eligible voters. In fact both are minority parties, especially if you count those who do not bother to vote.

Could be interesting.

EMR

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  1. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    I’d just like to point out that Mark Warner’s approval ratings are hovering around 70%. So we know that at least one member of one of the parties is BELOVED by HUGE majority of Virginians.

  2. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Paul:

    You are right, his approval ratings are higher than most recent governors. There are probably other individuals in both parties who would be well liked if the did as well as he has.

    I would not call Warner a party candidate in the sence that Kilgore and Kaine are. As I recall he funded a big part of his effort to get moninated, as well as his campaign, he did not run on the typical party platform.

    But how does any of that impact the upcoming election? Warner cannot run again.

    EMR

  3. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    That’s true – he ran away from his party label from the start.

    So the question is: How does Kaine differ from Warner? I guess it’s guns, abortion, and the death penalty.

  4. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    It’s an intriguing scenario. At this point, I’m sure Fitch would disavow any interest in running as an independent. But the possibilities are intriguing. Another factor working in his favor as an independent — but not as a Republican — is the fact that he would have the strongest environmental platform of the bunch. Being an environmentalist doesn’t do much for you in the Republican Party, but, in theory, it should help him cut into a core constituency of the Democratic Party.

    (I say, in theory, because I believe that most environmentalists are Democrats first, environmentalists second. There’s very little difference between the environmental policies of Gilmore and Warner, but the environmentalists lobbyists who vilified Gilmore have been remarkably quiet about Warner.)

  5. Phil Rodokanakis Avatar
    Phil Rodokanakis

    Once Fitch runs in the Republican primary, he cannot later run as an independent if he loses the primary election. This is prohibited by statute. Otherwise, the primary loser could always run as an independent, if for nothing else, just to become a spoiler. This would defeat the entire notion of a Polical Party primary contest.

  6. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    It is obvious that Kilgore is at a considerable disadvantage. He has a primary challenge on his hands and then an independent candidate positioned to drain off the moderate Republican vote.

    Kaine has all the Democrats to himself and is in a good position to win independents. All he has to do is run a solid campaign and he is the next governor of Virginia.

    Alice Marshall
    GOTV

  7. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Phil:

    Thank you for the clarification. Leave it to the parties to protect themselves from democracy.

    In the meantime, check out Kilgore’s northern part of Virginia stump speech. It sounds like a tax and spend approach to transport.

    The Road Gang has done what they always do: put a little in everyones pot until they see who would be best for them. When the pick Best-in-Show for spending money, they will open the wallets. That could provide Potts with the make up money.

    EMR

  8. Phil Rodokanakis Avatar
    Phil Rodokanakis

    Ed: I think it makes sense that once you run in a Political Party primary and you lose, you should be precluded from running in the general as an independent. What’s the point of holding primary elections if the losers could turn around and run as independents?

    As to Kilgore’s speech, I haven’t had the chance to look at it. Nonetheless, I’m convinced that unless we get Kilgore to sign the tax pledge, if he’s elected there will be a gasoline tax increase in the name of saving us from gridlock. Even if Kilgore starts getting weak knees at pushing such a proposal through, Commissar Chichester will make sure that such a tax increase gets enacted, even if he has to threaten closing down the government again.

  9. Joe Avatar
    Joe

    I agree with Ed and Paul, that Mark Warner won by “running away from his party.” He also ran a smart race.

    Perhaps Democrats should take notice.

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Let’s be clear – Kilgore’s proposed tax and spend proposals put him in the same camp as Governor Gilmore. This election will shape up to be a battle between Warner and Gilmore’s policies more than Kaine and Kilgore.

  11. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    If Kilgore’s philosophy on appropriate governmental staff levels is the same as his approach to appropriate paid campaign staff levels it looks like Virginia may be the first full employment act state. Good lord Kilgore is paying an army to run his campaign already in March.

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