State Senator Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) announces a Democratic “Civil War” over the budget, while nationally Democrats aren’t exactly pivoting well.

by Shaun Kenney

Let’s start with the basics.

As of this moment, the generic congressional ballot is D+5. Which isn’t great for Republicans. Yet when compared to other midterm elections? Democrats enjoyed a D+10 environment in 2018 and a D+11 environment in 2006.

This is the problem with the race to the bottom. For as radioactive as Democrats have made Trump in the public eye, ignored is the fact that the only thing more unpopular than Trump in the eyes of the American public are the Democrats themselves. Unwilling or unable to sideline their own progressive base, Democrats have to hope that they can convince enough people that Republicans are slightly more dangerous and crazy.

Which is — of course — dangerous and crazy.

In the pages of The Atlantic, whose contempt for intellectual insight is seconded only by its devotion to the partisan screed, the navel gazers are still amazed and in wonderment that the tagline “save democracy!” simply isn’t convincing middle America:

We learned that the central question for the conservatives we met is not “Should America be a democracy?” Instead it is: “Has American democracy remained faithful to what makes it legitimate?” Democratic institutions are legitimate, in the view of conservatives, when they honor and protect the faith, freedom, families, and communities of their constituents. When institutions and the politicians who inhabit them fail to appreciate the centrality of these core values, they become illegitimate.

The dangerous part here is that the writers aren’t exactly engaging in an exercise in empathy by any stretch. Instead, we are on an expedition for some other Holy Grail, that being how progressives can legitimize crazy. Zero introspection on the last decade of coercion and peer pressure as weapons of social change — far from it.

Our research suggests that activists seeking to protect American democracy from authoritarian influences are pursuing a failing strategy. They are defending largely abstract democratic processes, such as norms and rules, on the assumption that everyone agrees that they are legitimate and worth saving. But such arguments are unlikely to resonate with voters who have come to believe that many of these norms and processes have abandoned the country’s bedrock values. Calls to defend democracy promise to alienate anyone who feels that democratic institutions have somehow failed them. Few care to preserve a system they feel stopped serving its purpose long ago.

In their own words, the search for legitimacy is the preoccupation. Democrats are shocked — shocked! — to discover that the violations of normative behavior on the left are not magically absolved by accusing Republicans of doing likewise.

Our research suggests that activists seeking to protect American democracy from authoritarian influences are pursuing a failing strategy. They are defending largely abstract democratic processes, such as norms and rules, on the assumption that everyone agrees that they are legitimate and worth saving. But such arguments are unlikely to resonate with voters who have come to believe that many of these norms and processes have abandoned the country’s bedrock values. Calls to defend democracy promise to alienate anyone who feels that democratic institutions have somehow failed them. Few care to preserve a system they feel stopped serving its purpose long ago.

What baffles my mind is that for decades, the political left has used the institutions as a means of changing society. Of the seven institutions — bureaucracy, media, education, universities, entertainment, religion, and military/first responders — the left has total control over five. Religious institutions are being contested. Only the military and first responders seem to gravitate away from constructivism and towards reality, if for no other reason than if they get it wrong, someone gets hurt or dies.

Yet in each instance where the left has wiped out contrary opinion, the institutions themselves immediately go on life support. Even to entertain the notion that diversity in opinion is a positive good for a pluralistic society is anathema. Noam Chomsky’s illusion of choice comes back into play. Free expression of ideas, but only these ideas. Everything else is [insert terrible thing here].

The Golden Goose: Senate Democrats and the Mamdani Problem

Which brings us to the Virginia state budget.

Virginia Democrats are presently one week away from a self-imposed deadline, and they seem much further apart than the White House and the ayatollahs at present. Former Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling openly wonders what Virginia Democrats are possibly thinking in the most expensive game of chicken Richmond has ever seen:

Even though Governor Abigail Spanberger magically “found” an additional $1.5 billion for legislators to spend on their favorite government programs, the budget impasse remains, driven by a fundamental disagreement between the Senate and the House of Delegates on how to move forward with a longstanding tax exemption for data centers that has been in place since 2013.

That exemption for data centers is no small thing. Not only were the Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) between Richmond and the tech industry used to secure financing to build these centers, but they are an economic boon to cash-strapped localities struggling to make ends meet for schools and deputies.

Making matters more complicated, should Virginia rip in half these MOUs, the message sent not just to the technology industry but to industry of all kinds up and down the East Coast will have manifold repercussions indeed, as Todd Haymore explains in the pages of Virginia Business:

As a cabinet secretary and state agency head for three governors — two Democrats and a Republican — I represented the Commonwealth in high-stakes, competitive recruitments and negotiations.

In the private sector, I have helped companies negotiate new investments, expansions, relocations, and agreements with the Commonwealth.

No matter which seat I occupied, there was never any question about whether Virginia’s promises and agreements were reliable.

Never — until now.

Data centers themselves support 170,000 jobs and $17 billion in salaries and wages in Virginia each year, generating $5 billion in tax revenue over the last two years with no ceiling in sight. JLARC itself has stated that anywhere from 90% to 100% of the growth in data centers would not be happening without the sales tax exemption, with 84% of all new business investment in Virginia since 2020 being due to data centers themselves.

Clearly this is a goose laying golden eggs.

Just the threat of ending the sales tax exemption has already cost Virginia two major investments — one project of $25 billion and another in southwest Virginia totaling $100 billion.

Yet more expensive than this, Haywood warns, is the damage that repudiating the MOUs will do to Virginia’s reputation as a state to do business:

Virginia’s reputation as a top state for business was built in large part on our reputation for reliability, predictability and thoughtful governance by elected officials across the political spectrum.

The Senate proposal threatens to decimate the credibility and trustworthiness of Virginia as a partner for businesses that want to start, grow, relocate, invest, and create jobs in the state.

If Virginia breaks a promise to an industry that has invested hundreds of billions of dollars and created tens of thousands of jobs, businesses of all sizes in any industry will think twice before doing business in or with Virginia.

This is why Governor Abigail Spanberger is playing fast and loose with the numbers, conjuring up a $1.5 billion surplus by raiding the funds carefully shepherded by former Governor Glenn Youngkin to pay for things such as Medicaid.

In short, Lucas is presenting Virginia with a Mamdani problem:

Beyond the incentive dollars, workforce programs, and anything else Virginia can offer when recruiting jobs and investment, what a business really wants is certainty, predictability and confidence that Virginia is going to hold up its end of the bargain.

If Virginia undercuts itself in such a dramatic way, every private sector decision-maker will have reason to wonder if Virginia is worth the risk, or whether their investment is safer in another state.

Queue the socialism jokes.

The problem with socialism, so the story goes, is that eventually you run out of other people’s money. What precisely will this new money do and for whom, you ask? Well — that’s not quite clear. Or at least, your inclusion or exclusion from the budget bill will be conditional on whether or not you support the winning team.

Meanwhile, gasoline taxes in Virginia are up despite the dizzying cost of the Iran conflict. Virginia’s reintroduction to RGGI is driving up energy prices at home. Food prices remain shockingly high, interest rates remain higher than they ought to be, housing prices continue to escalate, wages continue to be eaten up by inflationary pressures from the Biden administration spend-and-spend policies — the hits on the middle class just keep on coming.

In the interim, Virginia Republicans continue to make recommendations such as a temporary suspension of the gasoline tax. Given the amazing discovery of the tax surplus, one might even be inclined to believe that overtaxed Virginians deserve a tax break rather than being told to get back to work for the millions of people depending upon them. No worries — at least Virginia will get an open-air cannabis market to help cope with reality, right?

Dysfunction or democracy — can anyone tell the difference?

In the meantime, oil futures are down to $72 a barrel and falling:

Speaking of MOUs, the new agreement between the United States and Iran has seen gas prices return to sanity. For instance, gasoline in most red states is now down to around $3.40 a gallon on average. In Virginia, gasoline prices are down to about $3.78 according to AAA but wildly varying even inside a 15-mile radius.

Meanwhile, the Trump economy over the last 18 months has added 900,000 new jobs, even while eliminating 340,000 federal government positions. Wages are indeed rising despite the fact that most of the wages are temporarily being eaten by energy prices. America’s manufacturing centers are coming back. The stock market is hitting historic highs. USAID and a whole host of NGOs and non-profits which previously enjoyed six-figure salaries are defunded and with that defunding goes the wind in the sails of groups who made a fortune dividing America.

Give credit where it is due.

Best of all — data centers are expanding and Virginia is rapidly becoming a hub for this economic investment, one that brings with it the productivity gains of artificial intelligence (AI) — though such gains remain at present a promise yet to be seen.

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee is virtually bankrupt. If the Democrats were banking on a strategy to see America fail, then those hopes have been successfully dashed this week. If Virginia Democrats — eager to fuel a Mamdani-style budget — fall for the trap of ripping apart MOUs in order to use Richmond as a piggy bank for their pet constituencies, the message to the wider business community will be heard loud and clear.

The problems continue to pile on for Spanberger and the Democratic-controlled General Assembly. Crime is already on the rise in Virginia localities. Firearm restrictions are headed to certain defeat in the courts. That $80 million stacked and burnt on an unconstitutional gerrymander might as well have bought 8 million Happy Meals to starving kids and done more good in the world. Virginia 250 has been an open disaster as Democrats certainly don’t seem particularly keen to celebrate America’s birthday — and it is a damn shame at that.

With gasoline prices headed for relief and the national economy set to finally take off after the Biden economy, the only question at present is whether or not Virginia intends to come along for the ride.

If the Democrats nationally are at D+5, those numbers are set to collapse rapidly as gas prices start coming down to the $2.99 range. Even if Virginia Democrats manage to course correct, the dysfunctionality and fear they have sown among teachers and deputies will not dissipate overnight. Is this what they deserve?

Let’s not undersell the impact of the unconstitutional gerrymandering effort has done to the moral reputation of our friends on the left. Virginia’s Democratic incumbents will now have to explain to the constituents they wanted to fire in an unconstitutional gerrymandering effort why they should be hired again. Eugene Vindman is certainly on that bubble, but Elaine Luria and Shannon Taylor and Tom Perriello will all have to answer the same question as to why politicians get to choose constituents but not the other way around.

Should we get into July without a budget, we may very well learn that there is something worse than crazy. Worse than dysfunctional. Pity the poor souls at The Atlantic, but few things seem to undermine legitimacy more than the self-styled defenders of democracy.

Shaun Kenney is senior editor of The Republican Standard. This column is republished with the permission of The Republican Standard.