Bacon's Rebellion

Without considering the jobs/housing balance of its “economy and security” moves, the military is planning to shift a lot of jobs from Greater South Arlington to Fort Belvoir in Greater Lorton/Southeastern Fairfax.

Unless the military changes their historic practice and current plans, Rummy and friends are in for unpleasant news. As we suggest in “METRO Ills and Base Closings” at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com it is in the interest of the communities, municipal governments, Commonwealth and the feds, especially the military, to fundamentally change their approach.

The first notice of bad news in now in. It takes no special insight to understand that just moving jobs to Fort Belvoir will heighten pressure for more scattered housing in the I-95 corridor. With Stafford shifting perspectives on growth, the next logical location is in southern Spotsylvania and Caroline Counties.

Guess what? That is just what is in the works. And guess who is saying that is a bad idea? The military at Fort A. P. Hill. They want to keep the non-urban context of the base to support the planned use of Fort A. P. Hill.

Well Rummy’s World: you can have this or that, not this and that. There is plenty of room for and many reasons to crate jobs/housing/services/recreation/amenity balance in both Greater South Arlington and in Greater Lorton/Southeastern Fairfax.

It will take intelligent, coordinated federal, state, regional and municipal action and broad private and citizen participation to create a good result.
It would seem the military would jump at the chance to win one. Perhaps Lt. Col Mis could call Rummy…

EMR

Katherine Waddell is running as an independent against Republican Brad Marrs for the House of Delegates seat in the 68th district, which overlaps Chesterfield County and the city of Richmond. Waddell, a Republican activist who considers herself a low-tax, limited-government conservative but social moderate, objects to what she considers Marrs’ extreme conservative agenda on cultural issues.

She hasn’t gotten much attention so far in the local press, but she may soon: Christine Todd Whitman, Former New Jersey Governor and author of “It’s My Party Too: The Battle for the Heart of the GOP and the Future of America,” will be a special guest at a Waddell fundraiser on Sept. 7. (She’ll also be signing copies of her book at area bookstores.)

Another sign that Waddell should be taken seriously: She’s managed to raise $58,000 so far. That lags Marrs’ $93,000, but it’s enough to make her a serious contender.

I just finished participating in the Tim Kaine conference call with bloggers. Kaine sounded relaxed and very comfortable with both his positions and the issues. He promised there would be more conference calls with bloggers down the road, calling blogs “Jeffersonian, “a big part of the dialog,” and the “21st century spin on what the First Amendment means.” All in all, it was an impressive performance, especially considering that facing bloggers is uncharted territory for most candidates.

Kaine began by summarizing his campaign as being in “good shape” with polls and fundraising. “I’m feeling good about the state of the race,” he said, as well as “we’re working our tails off.”

He tackled questions on rail in Charlottesville, where he emphasized the Baconian principle of tying transportation to land use; the environment, where he said there was “no substitute for investing”; education, where he called the lack of “meaningful and comprehensive teacher evaluations” to be the “biggest weakness” in Virginia schools; and economic development, where he said he would push hard for his $500 tax credit proposal for small businesses with under 50 employees to buy health insurance.

Kaine made a point of emphasizing fiscal responsibility, noting that he has not proposed a lot of new spending. He verified that he supported the notion of using “If you can find it in the Yellow Pages, maybe government shouldn’t be doing it” as a starting point for evaluating government reorganization. He called blue ribbon commissions frequent “excuses for inaction.”

I’m not sure the bloggers who participated asked tougher questions than might have been posed by “mainstream” reporters. Michael Shear of the Washington Post was in on the call; perhaps he’ll address it on his blog–or even in a news story.

Governor Warner carries an excess of political capital right now with his record-setting approval rating. He decided to spend a little of it yesterday, attacking Jerry Kilgore without using his name, as reported by Michael Hardy of the Richmond Times Dispatch:

Warner suggested that opponents of his record $1.4 billion tax-increase package should knock off their continuing criticism or say how they would fund their promises.

“I have heard statewide candidates complaining about our tax proposal” at the same time they’re proposing spending some of the additional dollars on their campaign promises, the governor said.

Those politicians, he said, want to use the state’s general tax collections to finance transportation improvements. But those dollars are needed for core state services, such as education and Medicaid. Those programs will require an additional $2 billion in the next two-year budget, he said.

Warner didn’t dig as deep into his account as he might have, failing to mention Tim Kaine by name.

Many Republicans are vexed as to why Warner is so popular for pushing a tax increase that turned out to be unnecessary. Pointing out the “unnecessary tax increase” doesn’t appear to be getting any traction. The problem might be found within this response:

“What is too often lost in budget discussions is the fact that tax increases are responsible for only a small part of the massive and growing surpluses,” said Tucker Martin, a Kilgore spokesman.

Tucker Martin’s formulation just doesn’t have any punch. Republicans need to find a snappy shorthand to “bumper sticker” this issue. They’d do well to actually consider challenging the Warner strength: fiscal management. If Kaine is going to ride Warner’s coattails, the coattails need to be roughed up. Warner’s fiscal record might seem unassailable, but the tax increase that turned out to be unnecessary is a good target, even if it’s difficult to get in the cross-hairs.

Of course, pressing the unnecessary tax increase issue might make some GOP delegates uncomfortable and might open Kilgore up to more questions about his spending plans. Campaigns are about choices, though, and the Kilgore campaign needs to decide if they want and need this issue to work.

This comes from the Washington Post: The housing inventory on the market in the Washington metropolitan area has risen to about 35,300 homes, up from an average of about 23,000 in the past three years. The average number of days that a house spends on the market also is edging up. Sayeth the Post:

Wes Foster, chairman of Long & Foster Real Estate Inc. … said the market is returning to “normalcy” after a frenzied era of multiple contracts, bidding wars and desperate buyers waiving their right to property inspections or appraisals.

“It’s very healthy,” he said. “It worried the pure hell out of me the numbers we were seeing. I remember Boston in 1982 to 1989, when [prices] went up 25 percent a year for six years, and then in one year [they] fell 87 percent. The ride up for everybody selling was wonderful but the ride down was awful. . . . It was very painful and I don’t want to see that here.”

Foster said the recent manic market has been fueled by what he called “crazy fools running around buying houses as investments,” with “bad loans, interest-free loans.”

“They’ll get hurt, and I think they should,” as prices inevitably correct themselves, he said. A slowdown is needed because so many average people have been priced out of homes or compelled to pay high prices, he said.

Powerful Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Chichester (R-Northumberland) discussed Virginia’s surplus and future fiscal direction in this Free Lance Star column.

Caution and prudence seem to be his guiding principles; there shouldn’t be any “automatic” triggers for tax relief or tax increases. This passage is a good summary of his position:

Our actions in 2004 made the tax code fairer and provided ongoing stability to our general fund budget. That means we can avoid weaving unsustainable funds into our operating budget–a risky measure at best.

Rather, when there is an unexpected surplus, we can exercise our fiduciary duty to weigh competing priorities and make the best choices. Clearly, if the revenue is ongoing, we can choose to grant additional tax relief. We all have ideas about the next step to take in that regard.

But there are other choices, as well, because Virginia has not faced all of its challenges. Undeniably, our transportation system is broken. While a general fund infusion will not cure ongoing road maintenance, it may provide one ingredient of a broader recipe.

We’ll be watching to see the choices that Sen. Chichester recommends.

My friend Steve Toler (alias Mosbygrey) posed a question I could not answer: Where’s Tim Kaine’s biography? He couldn’t find it anywhere online. The nearest thing that exists on the official Tim Kaine For Governor website is a seven-paragraph page snapshot, “Tim’s Story,” and an autobiographical piece about Kaine’s mission work in Honduras, entitled, “Finding My Mission in Life,” that didn’t come close to answering Steve’s questions.

Those two pages reveal only the sparsest of details: Kaine grew up in Kansas City, son of a small businessman who ran a metal shop. He went to the University of Missouri and then to Harvard Law School, including a year off to work with Catholic missionaries in Honduras. But how did he come to Richmond? When and where did he meet his wife Anne, the daughter of former Gov. Linwood Holton? And how long has he entertained political ambitions?

Steve, a die-hard Republican and unreconstructed Virginian, thinks he sniffs the odeur of old wool carpet — as in carpetbagger — about Kaine. Did Kaine meet Anne outside Virginia and then move here to set up a law practice, possibly with an eye to getting in politics? (In that scenario, it wouldn’t hurt to be married to the daughter of a former governor.) Or did he move to Virginia, where he met and married Anne Holton? (Seemingly less calculated.) In either case, how long after he moved to Richmond did he get involved in politics?

Personally, I don’t have anything against outsiders moving to Virginia, considering the fact that I’m a quasi-outsider, having spent most of my childhood growing up across the Potomac in the District of Columbia, with a few years and summers spent in Norfolk/Virginia Beach. And I’m not normally thrilled about bringing candidates’ family into a political discussion. But Jerry Kilgore’s mama and her Scott County courthouse connections appears to be a legitimate topic, so I suppose Tim Kaine’s relationship to a former Virginia governor should be, too.

Although I disagree with Kaine on a number of issues (most especially his dogged support for the unneeded 2004 tax hike), he strikes me as genuinely sincere and idealistic. But I may be wrong: I really don’t know that much about him. Could Steve’s hunch be right? Is there a streak of political opportunism in Kaine? What do we know about his motives for moving to Virginia?

Mark Warner is dominant, and, by implication, would beat Allen (like a baby seal?) head-to-head.

The July 25 edition of Bacon’s Rebellion has been posted online.

Here’s an editorial from the Roanoke Times on the Virginia Information Technology Agency’s secretive process for possible outsourcing. There are also hints of conflicts of interest. I wrote about this on Saturday; thanks to Becky Dale in the comments for the pointer.

1. Virginia voters are dialing in

2. Kaine up

3. Kilgore down

4. Potts gaining, enough of a factor to worry both, Kilgore most

5. Mark Warner is dominant, and, by implication, would beat Allen (like a baby seal?) head-to-head

6. House primaries predictive, Flat-Earthers getting flattened

7. Divisive social issues (Kilgore pitch) fading, bread-n-butter government (education, transportation) to the fore

8. Voters want Potts in the debates

9. Centrism rules, radical left and right holding sucker hands

10. All the marbles still up for grabs

Surprisingly, this blog, your source for stupefyingly wonkish coverage of state government issues, failed to flag yesterday’s Peter Bacque information technology story on the front page of the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

It seems that

Virginia’s information technology agency says it will keep secret the competing industry proposals for taking over major parts of the state’s IT sector.

The contracts, which are divided into two parts, are potentially worth billions of dollars to the winning firms and could affect the jobs of about 1,200 state employees.

First of all, who knew that the vaunted Virginia Information Technology Agency (VITA) needed this kind of help? Second, why the level of secrecy with this bidding, a secrecy not invoked by VDOT when it pursues public-private partnerships under the same authority?

I don’t know if this is a good idea or a bad idea, but I expect those who are suspicious of the private sector doing state work to be heard on this. If you like the influence of big corporations, you’ll love the companies involved in bidding on this work: IBM, Northrop Grumman, and Canada’s CGI-AMS. There is this comforting word:

The contracts would likely run from seven to 10 years, and should not cost Virginia any more than it now spends on IT services, said the state’s chief information officer, Lemuel C. Stewart Jr.

Have we heard that before?

Sen. George Allen was on the “Imus in the Morning” radio show this morning, being interviewed about terrorism. It was a nice slot to show a little gravitas, with events in London unfolding as he spoke.

Allen is serious about running for president. The best way to demonstrate that one is not a stereotypical “wingnut” is to appear on a show where the favorite guests are Sen. McCain, Sen. Kerry, and Sen. Dodd. A lot of conservatives avoid shows like Imus, perhaps because of its frequent raw humor. They’re losing a lot of exposure.

Well, the FY 2005 numbers are in. The final budget surplus: $544.4 million. That’s over and above the $900 million or so surplus anticipated earlier this year, which the General Assembly allocated to the Rainy Day Fund, road projects, Chesapeake Bay clean-up and other causes.

In a press release issued by the Governor’s Office, the Warner administration downplayed the long-term significance of the surplus, implying that it may not be replicable. Stated the press release:

More than three-fourths of the surplus was generated by quarterly non-withholding payments made by individuals who receive substantial amounts of income from stock market gains, bonuses, and other non-wage income; from unusually strong growth in corporate income taxes; and from taxes and fees paid on home and real property sales – the three most unpredictable sources of state revenues.

Gov. Mark R. Warner will allocate $436.5 million to the Rainy Day Fund, bringing that fund’s total to about $1.1 billion, or the maximum allowable by law. He will apply another $54.4 million to the Water Quality Improvement Fund, $26 million to the Transportation Trust Fund and $25 million to assist localities affected by the Base Realignment and Closure Process.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Between their actions in the 2005 session and the disposal of the year-end surplus, Warner and the General Assembly will have spent roughly $1.4 billion this year on “one-time” allocations. It will be interesting to see how Warner applies that uncommitted revenue flow to the next biennial budget, which he submits to the General Assembly as one of his last actions in office. The Rainy Day Fund has largely maxxed out, so Warner can’t divert any more money there. He will have four choices: Spend it on programmatic increases, spend it on more “one-time” allocations, give it back to taxpayers… or continue lowballing revenue forecasts.

Giving any of the surplus back to taxpayers is the last thing he’ll do, even though it is now roughly twice as large as the sum he raised through higher taxes. That would be tantamount to admitting that the 2004 tax increase — the signature accomplishment of his administration — was utterly unnecessary.

Equally interesting is what Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore would do with that money when one of them succeeds Warner. So far, no one has posed that question to them. But the issue will confront the winner immediately upon assuming office. Virginians should insist that both candidates focus on it.

“Virginia Beach and the Shenandoah Valley might be prime destinations for vacationers this time of year, but those on a job hunt would be wise to head north on Interstate 95,” reports Washington Post reporter Elissa Silverman. “Northern Virginia accounted for 96.3 percent of the state’s job growth since last spring, according to new numbers from the Virginia Employment Commission.” (Am I being defensive, or do I detect a little big city disdain for the hinterlands here?)

According to Silverman, Northern Virginia accounted for “49,100 of 51,000 new jobs statewide in the year that ended in May.”

Everyone knows that economic growth in Northern Virginia is stronger than anywhere else in Virginia, but could it possibly be that lopsided? I checked the latest VEC press release, which covers employment growth between May 2004 and May 2005. These job growth numbers come straight from that report:

Harrisonburg: 2,600 new jobs, up 4.4 percent
Northern Virginia: 49,100 jobs, up 4.0 percent
Blacksburg/Christiansburg: 2,700 new jobs, up 4.0 percent
Richmond: 13,100 new jobs, up 2.2 percent
Roanoke: 2,900 new jobs, up 1.8 percent
Lynchburg: 1,600 new jobs, up 1.6 percent
Winchester: 900 new jobs, up 1.6 percent
Charlottesville: 1,000 new jobs, up 1.1 percent
Hampton Roads: 5,400 new jobs, up 0.7 percent
Danville: Unchanged

Clearly, NoVa dominates job creation in Virginia. But add up the numbers for metro areas in RoVa (Rest of Virginia) and you get job creation of 30,200. Given 49,100 new jobs in NoVa, 30,200 new jobs in RoVa metro areas, and a net job creation of 51,000 for the entire state, these numbers imply that non-metropolitan areas lost about 28,300 jobs.

It’s totally misleading to say that NoVa accounted for 96.3 percent of all job creation in the past year — a statement that implies that hardly any jobs were being created anywhere else in Virginia. Job creation was just as strong in Harrisonburg and Blacksburg as in mighty NoVa. In Richmond, Roanoke, Lynchburg and Winchester, job growth exceeded the national average of 1.5 percent. Memo to the Washington Post: Rural Virginia is hurting, but Virginia’s metro areas are holding their own.