Bacon's Rebellion

My first reaction upon reading the latest Kilgore campaign attack on Tim Kaine was disgust. Just how stupid do those guys think we voters are? Then, after referring to the Kaine campaign website, I concluded that contempt for the truth — and the voters’ intelligence — may be universal. Here are the facts. You decide for yourself.

Kilgore held a press conference yesterday with former Richmond Mayor and Congressman Tom Bliley and blasted Kaine for his “dismal track record” as mayor. Among the failings the Kilgore campaign pins on Kaine: Deteriorating student-teacher ratios in city schools, rising drop-out rates, low student achievement, a 47.5 percent increase in unemployment, and higher taxes. (See the press release.)

As a campaign gimmick, this may be effective. If the charges are mindlessly repeated in the press in the usual he said/she said format of campaign coverage, and if the voters are as ignorant as the Kilgorites seem to assume they are, the charges just may stick. Here’s the problem: Four of the five of Kilgore’s points are totally bogus.

Tim Kaine was elected as one of seven city council persons. Chosen by his peers as mayor, he was simply a first among equals who chaired city council meetings and fulfilled ceremonial duties. Kaine enjoyed no executive power. Furthermore, the city school board, not Tim Kaine, ran the Richmond city schools. School systems enjoy extraordinary autonomy in Virginia. To blame Kaine for the problems of Richmond city schools — problems that he had no power to influence — is ridiculous. Similarly, to blame Tim Kaine for an uptick in unemployment is nonsensical as well. Unemployment in the city reflects the strength of the national, state and regional economy, which are matters beyond the mayor’s control.

The one legitimate charge is taxes. As mayor, Kaine could influence the city’s budgetary choices and its tax rate. The city’s tax take did increase during his tenure, and he is legitimately vulnerable to criticism on this front. If the Kilgore campaign wants to display some intellectual integrity, that’s what it should focus on. Leave the rest alone.

As contemptible as the Kilgore attacks are, the Kaine campaign invited them by grotesquely inflating Kaine’s record of achievement. Read this passage in Kaine’s campaign biography: “Tim Kaine improved the city’s business climate, cutting taxes such as the property tax and the business license fee. Over 76,000 jobs were created in the metro Richmond area. To enhance public education, he built the city’s first new schools in a generation…” Yadda, yadda, yadda.

Those puffed-up claims are just as irresponsible as Kilgore’s attacks. Yes, Kaine cut the property tax rate, but rising property values drove up the total tax burden. As for claiming credit for 76,000 jobs in “metro Richmond” — including Henrico, Chesterfield and Hanover counties — that’s downright laughable. And if Kaine wants to hog credit for building new schools, then he needs to take responsibility for the rest of the Richmond school system.

I really shouldn’t be reading this garbage before breakfast. It ruins my appetite.

On the heels of Phil’s provocative post about the 2004 tax increase issue, Michael Shear of the Washington Post has his analysis of how it is being played by the Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore campaigns.

For Kaine:

Education is consistently the top issue on people’s minds in Virginia, polls suggest. Kaine’s aides think his support of the tax increases will translate in people’s mind to support for education. Kilgore’s opposition to the tax increases, they hope, will translate into a disdain for schools.

For Kilgore:

There has not been a concerted effort by anyone to stir up opposition to the tax increases since they took effect. If past is prologue, the talented Kilgore campaign machine could be very effective at doing so.

It’s a balanced piece, except for not mentioning Russ Potts. Sometimes, good copy is hard to find.

Among the nuggets hidden in William Leighty’s recitation of the Warner administration’s government reforms (See “A Record of Reform” in the current issue of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine) is this:

Fiscal Year 2005 savings are estimated at $23.4 million, with cost avoidance estimated at $1.5 million for FY 05. By the end of this decade, we expect to see $138.3 million in outright savings and almost $5 million in cost avoidance.

We have been tracking VITA on this blog for some time. These are the first concrete numbers I’ve seen regarding how much money the agency is saving. Although $23 million in the fiscal year past seems modest, efficiencies amounting to nearly $140 million by the end of the decade are not to be sneezed at. If these numbers pan out, one would have to classify VITA as a success.

I realize there are a lot of VITA skeptics out there, and I also know that “cost savings” numbers can be mushy. Further, I would like to know how these cost savings can be reconciled with the push earlier this year to charge state agencies higher fees for VITA services (only to be made unnecessary, apparently, by some budgetary maneuver that I haven’t seen fully explained). Can anyone shed some light?

I was beginning to wonder whether I was following in the footsteps of the Greek philosopher Diogenes, who was known for walking in broad daylight holding a lantern looking for an honest man. I’m referring, of course, to the apparent unwillingness of the members of the General Assembly to point out that Gov. Warner has been less than forthcoming—some would say that he lied—in the budget projections he used in 2004 to justify the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia. (See “Republican Mutes.”)

Given the size of the budget surplus, we now can all agree that the tax increase was totally unnecessary. So either Gov. Warner falsified his budget projections or he is plainly incompetent, a rather unlikely possibility given his many successes in the business world.

Finally, Del. Jeff Frederick, R-Woodbridge, has spoken out. In a letter published in today’s OpEd section of the Washington Times, “Warner Shortchanging Virginians” the good delegate says it like it is:

“He [Warner] had to cry wolf saying we were in a fiscal crisis, and in order to do so, had to make sure that economic figures didn’t undermine his position. So, he either kept the good news of massive surpluses from all of us, or proved to be outright incompetent when it comes to budget forecasting. For a guy who personally made millions in private business, I just can’t see Mr. Warner messing up this bad without it being on purpose.”

I sure hope that other members in the General Assembly would have the integrity to tell their constituents that Warner lied and that the tax increase was totally unnecessary. What a refreshing breath of fresh air that would be instead of the customary obfuscations, falsehoods, and political spin we have come to expect from Richmond.

Tyler Whitley of the Richmond Times-Dispatch informs that Tim Kaine will be debating Russ Potts twice next month, including an event after Kaine debates Jerry Kilgore in front of the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce.

I’m fascinated by the political calculations being made by the Kaine campaign.

Is this a mutually beneficial plan by the two candidates to rough up Kilgore? Rumors of collusion between Kaine and Potts have always been below the surface.

Has Kaine concluded that he must raise Potts’ profile and get him into the televised debate because Potts drains votes from Kilgore?

Or, has Kaine decided that he has to take Potts out now because a surge by Potts will come from Kaine’s column?

Any and all speculation or inside information in the comments will be welcomed.

Updates: Commonwealth Conservative has some theories on the Kaine-Potts debate. Norm reviews the issue and this BR discussion. Poli Amateur smells a “gentleman’s agreement” between Kaine and Potts.

My apologies if this item has appeared in the newspaper already, but I picked it up from a United Steel Workers press release this evening and thought it was worth passing along:

Several unions, led by a United Steelworkers delegation, demonstrated their deep displeasure with Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives who voted for the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), by walking out of the Virginia AFL-CIO convention over the weekend when Rep. Jim Moran was introduced.

Moran, one of 15 Democrats who voted for CAFTA last month, had been invited to address the convention. The Steelworkers were joined in their action by delegates from the Communications Workers and United Autoworkers unions. The unions claim that CAFTA would lead to the loss of 100,000 U.S. jobs.

“I think it would be a real mistake for Rep. Moran to believe that we are not going to hold him accountable here in Virginia,” said Alton Glass, President of USW Local 8888, whose membership of nearly 8,000 workers is the largest in the Commonwealth. “He has a responsibility to his district and all Virginians. Instead he let us all down by voting for a lousy trade deal that will cost us even more jobs.”

Very few of the USW’s members, however, reside in Moran’s Northern Virginia district, I’d wager. But many IT companies and service companies in Moran’s district benefit from the toppling of trade barriers. I suspect that Moran understands his constituency very well. Knowing the Congressman’s feisty temperament, I would be surprised if the snub did anything more than tick him off.

Yesterday Snoopy urged Richmonders to turn out today at a rally designed to show visiting NASCAR executives that Richmond should be the site for their Hall of Fame.

From televised news reports, it appears that lots of fans were on hand to show their support.

I was surprised that state employees did not receive an email from Governor Warner inviting them to come out and swell the crowd on the Capitol grounds. That my economic development organization totally ignored the rally was also surprising. Lest anyone think a NASCAR rally might not be an appropriate use of state time, employees have previously been invited to a memorial service for London victims and to take a walk with Governor Warner after a “be healthy” rally, among other things. What could be more important to Virginia on an August afternoon than landing one of the more attractive economic develoment projects to come along in years?

The Virginia Retirement System earned a 12 percent return on investment in fiscal 2005, bringing its total assets to $44 billion. Each of the fund’s asset classes had a positive return. Real estate led the way at 24.4 percent return, closely followed by private equity at 21.5 percent. The portfolio performance represents a big improvement over the 3.0 percent annualized return over the past five years.

According to a VRS press release, a total payment of $1.1 million will be provided to 24 investment professionals, according to their contribution to fund performance. The payment represents a small fraction of the value added to the fund resulting from the staff’s investment decisions, noted Chairman Paul W. Timmreck. Of that amount, $292,000 will be placed in a deferred compensation account for senior investment professionals and used as a retention tool.

I hope no one begrudges the rewarding of VRS employees. State employees should be rewarded for superior performance.

West Point, a paper mill town in Virginia’s Tidewater, has achieved quite a distinction: Its school system had the highest percentage of students passing at least two of the three Standards of Learning tests this year: 95 percent passed the English tests, 95 percent passed science, and 94 percent passed math. It wasn’t a one-year fluke: West Point scored tops last year, too.

Located in King William County, West Point is not an elitest, white suburban enclave. Three thousand of the county’s 13,000 residents (2000 Census) are black. The county’s per capita income of $22,000 (1999) was 30th from the top, not bad, but not what you’d call affluent either. (I can’t find the K-12 budget numbers because the Department of Education server seems to be down, but I’m willing to bet that King William isn’t throwing extravagant sums of money at its schools. Interestingly, one fifth of West Point’s students live outside the town, often in neighboring counties, and pay a tuition of $2,250 to attend — not exactly a king’ s ransom.)

So, what’s the secret?

According to the Richmond Times-Dispatch, School Board member Larry Dillon attributes the school system’s success to “a culture that focuses on the basics.” Said Dillon: “You set the tone at an early age, and by the time they get to high school, the high expectations are embedded in them.” No whining. No excuses. No finger pointing and evading responsibility. Just setting high expectations and sticking to the basics.

I’ve just read William Leighty’s recitation of the Warner Administration’s accomplishments in today’s Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine.

The list is long and there are impressive, undeniable accomplishments. As a cog in the state government machine, I might quibble with a few things on the list from my perspective, but by and large the results are real.

What I would say is that as a state employee, I never got the impression that this statement was anything other than a one-time, quick Administration initiative: “We forced agencies to re-examine longstanding practices and explore opportunities to bring business principles to state government.” Maybe it’s just the agency I work for, but I felt that anything I did, or anything anyone other than the Director did along those lines was not welcomed.

If you look at the accomplishments, most seem to carry a 2002 or 2003 date. The Administration started out like gangbusters and then seemed to ease up. Maybe that’s a downside of a term-limited governor. Maybe it’s the downside of a governor becoming a national figure. I noticed it in the previous administration. I don’t think it’s just a coincidence that the mini-scandals of DGIF et. al. occurred late in the Administration.

My point is that a new governor can build on these accomplishments and find lots more to reform, re-engineer, and re-vitalize. He can accomplish plenty throughout his administration if he really keeps his eye on the ball or is willing to delegate the power to spur agencies to higher performance to someone with clout.

An early congratulations to the Warner Administration for showing that reform is possible and for making significant contributions to good governance.

The Aug. 23, 2005, edition of Bacon’s Rebellion is now online.

Norm over at One Man’s Trash already has his incisive take on the Tyler Whitley, front page Russ Potts story in today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch.

I’d just like to expand on one point Norm made. Russ Potts wants into the debates. There are many positive, persuasive reasons he could give. But the “straight-talking independent” can’t resist casting his current exclusion only in terms of Jerry Kilgore’s perfidy: “I’m terribly disgusted with him for his gutless, spineless actions on the debates.”

Nice talk. Negative campaigning and name-calling usually get critical press, but Potts gets a pass.

“NotLarrySabato” has been derided for dedicating August to producing various House of Delegate election scenarios. The scenarios have ranged from the possible to the preposterous, but I’ve always found them thought-provoking even when they’re a bit strained.

NotLarry hits a home run with this scenario: if each race is decided on the quality of the candidate websites, who wins? A prodigious amount of work had to go into this post and it’s fascinating to read the reviews and check sites for yourself.

With Gov. Mark R. Warner a lame duck who spends an increasing amount of his time outside the state, the most powerful politician in Virginia today is Sen. John H. Chichester, the Senate Finance Chair, and he will remain so until the inauguration of the next governor. For a man so powerful, Chichester is remarkably uncommunicative. His natural arena is in the clotured halls of the General Assembly, a turf he dominates. Other than the rare speech and occasional word to the press, he leaves us spectators of the General Assembly guessing at his intentions and reasoning.

Thus it is remarkable that he issued an op-ed piece nearly a month ago, and very little was made of it. I missed it entirely. I don’t recall seeing it mentioned in print, and no one has discussed it on this blog. (If other bloggers have taken note of it, I apologize for overlooking your contribution to public understanding.) The op-ed came to my attention only because Phil Rodokanakis cited it in his up-coming column in Bacon’s Rebellion.

The purpose of Chichester’s column is to contest the thinking behind the Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) initiative backed by the Virginia Institute for Public Policy and other conservative, anti-tax groups. The title of the column, “Virginia is not on automatic pilot,” sums up his philosophy nicely. You can read the column here.

One thing becomes very clear from a reading of the op-ed: Chichester applies the perspective of a bean counter. He is driven by the accountant’s fixation with balancing the books. Don’t misunderstand me: Balancing the books and maintaining a AAA credit rating are important, but the challenge of managing state government does not end there. No company ever bean-counted its way to greatness, and neither has any state.

There is no boldness in Chichester’s worldview, no passion, no imagination, no hint that there could be a better, more efficient, more creative to do things. The word “innovation” does not appear to be part of his vocabulary. Chichester gives no hint in his op-ed that he can conceive operating government any differently than it is run now. Judging by his column, the words “reinventing,” “restructuring,” “re-engineering,” “outsourcing,” “right-sizing,” “focusing on core competencies” and other management concepts of the past 20 years do not impinge upon his thinking.

Chichester brings to state government the constricted, risk-averse world view of a small-town insurance broker… which is exactly what he is. May God save the Commonwealth from such a small mind.

Over at the University of Virginia, Professor Al Groh

has agreed to a deal that runs through Dec. 31, 2010, and includes a rollover provision that could extend his tenure well past that date. The contract, which was signed this month, boosts his annual compensation to $1.7 million for the coming year — $240,000 in base salary and $1.46 million for services that include fundraising work, radio and TV appearances and product endorsements.

By 2010, Groh may be making significantly more than $1.7 million. Athletic Director Craig Littlepage said Groh is eligible for a 5 percent cost-of-living increase that would be applied to his total compensation package annually. By the 2010 season, then, Groh’s annual package may be worth around $2.17 million.

At Virginia Tech, Professor Frank Beamer is renegotiating his paltry $1.3 million annual salary and is also fighting to increase the salaries of the adjunct professors who teach sections of his class. Nine of them are forced to subsist on $1.1 million.

Look, I love a good college football game as much as the next guy. But when I see these salary wars while university presidents bemoan their appropriations and raise tuition (which includes a fee that goes to athletics), I want to tell the hat-in-hand higher education lobby to “shut up.”

Voters, citizens, taxpayers, whatever you want to call them, are voting on their priorities with their dollars. The higher education lobby ought to be going to the football programs for more money, not the legislature.