Bacon's Rebellion

The Sept. 19, 2005 edition of Bacon’s Rebellion has been published. Click here to read it.

Kudos to Mike Hardy at the Richmond Times-Dispatch for staying on top of the latest state revenue reports. Tax collections for July and August, the first two months of the 2006 fiscal year, grew 17 percent over the same period last year.

Makes you wonder if apologists for the 2004 tax increase, who predicated the hike on forecasts of a long-term, “structural” revenue shortfall, will ever admit they were wrong. The Warner administration underestimated revenues in 2004 (up 7.9 percent), and again in 2005 (up 14.8 percent, thanks in part to the tax hikes). Now, it looks like they’ve underestimated again.

The 17 percent growth rate is unsustainable, but even if it moderates, it will be bigger than the budget calls for, and we’re bound to see another giganzo revenue surplus…. unless the General Assembly spends it all first.

The latest Rasmussen Poll shows that Tweedle Dum (Spend Mo’ Money) holds a narrow, three-point lead over Tweedle Dee (Spend Lots Mo’ Money). The race is narrowing, and Tweedle Dim (Spend Mo’ Money and Raise Taxes, Too) remains a non-factor with a mere five percent tally.

Of greater interest to me is the ranking of the issues that the survey of 500 likely voters thought were most important. The issues are (drum roll, please)….

Economy – 28 %
Health care – 15 %
Education – 14 %
Taxes – 11 %
Transportation – 8 %
Immigration – 7 %
Same-Sex Marriage – 6%
Gun Ownership Laws – 5%
Abortion – 3 %

Bottom line: The vocal Democratic Left and Republican Right may be fixated on cultural wedge issues, but Virginia voters aren’t. Virginians are concerned about pocketbook issues, with the economy (jobs, wages, salaries, entrepreneurial opportunities) ranking at the top. Health care comes in second, with education and taxes trailing behind.

Transportation, the signature issue of Sen. Russ Potts (er, I mean Tweedle Dim), the obsession of the Virginia state Senate and the desideratum of special interest groups, dragged in with only 8 percent. It’s hard to swallow, but I’ll admit it: Taxes, my pet obsession scored only No. 4 on the list, and the poll indicated that 46 percent said that the 2004 tax increases were good for the state.

Clue to the candidates: If you want to win over voters, start talking about economic development and health care!

Those of you in NOVA who thought that rail to Dulles would suck away all transportation dollars and put a stop to new highway construction, you must love Tim Kaine’s new transportation proposal. Thanks to Del. Tim Hugo for catching this one during the debate sponsored by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce earlier this week, as this has not been reported in any press accounts I have seen.

Here’s what Tim Kaine had to say on transportation:

“A couple of things on mass transit. I believe the state funding formulas are such that they should be adjusted so that public and mass transit options receive the same subsidy percentages as road projects.”

So if you thought that insufficient funds are now being expended for highway construction, under a Kaine administration even less money will be made available for this purpose. So even though less than about 13% of all commuters are using any form of mass transit, Tim Kaine is prepared to more than triple the money available for mass transit at the expense of highway construction.

According to Del. Hugo, the current breakdown from the Transportation Trust fund is as follows: 14.7% of the revenues get set aside for mass transit while 78.7% get set aside for highway construction. Under a Kaine administration, both mass transit and highway construction would equally receive 46.7%.

If you thought we’re facing a gridlock now, wait and see what happens under a Kaine administration!

And what about our rural communities? They won’t get any money for mass transit, while their allocation of highway construction dollars would be reduced significantly.

Does any of this make sense? It obviously does to Tim Kaine—which goes to show how much out-of-touch he is with Virginia’s needs and priorities.

To be fair about this, I’m also not thrilled about Jerry Kilgore’s transportation plan. The Regional Transportation Authorities proposed by Jerry Kilgore make sense from the perspective of local planning, but they’re a terrible idea because Kilgore is talking about giving them independent taxing authority. It’s mind-boggling that a self-proclaimed fiscal conservative candidate—one who purportedly believes in lower taxes and smaller government—would advocate giving unelected and unaccounted bureaucrats taxing authority. Go figure…

Anyone wanna bet on how Virginia’s two Republican Senators vote on this bill?

House Adds Gender Identity, Sexual Orientation to ‘Hate Crimes’ MeasureBy Susan JonesCNSNews.com Senior EditorSeptember 15, 2005(CNSNews.com) – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a “hate crimes” measure on Wednesday, something that would expand federal protection to people victimized because of their actual or perceived sexual orientation, gender, gender identity and disability.The measure, formally called the Local Law Enforcement Hate Crimes Prevention Act, passed by a vote of 223 to 199 after it was attached as an amendment to HR 3132, the “Children’s Safety Act.” A similar bill is pending in the Senate.Current federal “hate crime” law only covers crimes motivated by race, color, national origin and religion.

Homosexual advocacy groups have long pressed for the inclusion of sexual orientation and gender identity, but many conservative groups reject the notion of “hate crimes” entirely.”Criminalizing thoughts as well as actions, and creating special categories of victims, are contrary to our entire system of laws,” said Family Research Council President Tony Perkins in a statement released after the House vote.”Furthermore, granting special protections based on one’s ‘sexual orientation’ has repeatedly been rejected by Congress. It is shocking that a bill designed to protect children from sexual predators is now being used to protect the sexual preference of homosexuals.” Perkins urged the Senate to reject the House’s “attempt to advance the political agenda of homosexuals at the expense of children.”

On the other side of the issue, groups such as the Anti-Defamation League and the Human Rights Campaign welcomed House passage of the measure.HRC President Joe Solmonese called House passage of the measure a “historic step toward giving law enforcement the tools they need to enforce and prosecute hate crimes against gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender Americans. “We must ensure that some of the most heinous crimes are fully prosecuted and enforced,” Solmonese added.The Anti-Defamation League noted that both the House and Senate approved similar measures in the last session of Congress, only to see the hate crime provisions stripped from the final bill.”We will work hard to ensure that these provisions are enacted into law this time,” said Barbara B. Balser, ADL National Chair, and Abraham H. Foxman, ADL National Director.

The hate crimes measure would allow the U.S. Justice Department to assist local authorities in investigating and prosecuting cases in which violence occurs against specially protected groups of people.The House bill was filed jointly in May by Reps. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), IIeana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), John Conyers (D-Mich.); Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi called the bill long overdue: “Hate crimes have no place in America,” she said. “Our nation was founded on the principle that all are created equal, all are entitled to the protection of our laws, and all are entitled to justice. It violates this principle to have individuals in our country targeted for violence because of who they are, the color of their skin, how they worship, or who they love. The perpetrators of violence intend to send a message to certain members of our community that they are not welcome,” Pelosi said in a statement.

The one and only time I wrote a letter to Sen Allen was on his last vote supporting ‘hate crimes’. I got a lengthy note back from his staff, a bit snippy in tone, about how George Allen had always supported Hate Crimes legislation and campaigned on it. I don’t remember that in the campaigns I worked for him since 93 as a grassroots guy.

Hate crime is thought crime. It’s noxious to our liberty. The crimes, which are despicable, are addressed in the State and US Codes as appropriate. Hate crimes are an Orwellian harbinger. Check out how 11 Christians were arrested and charged with hate crime felonies for exercising their free speech in Philly last year. Christian speech, more precisely – Biblical speech that homosexuality is sinful is illegal in Canada and the EU. Our Senators should keep that aspect of Human Secular Totalitarianism out of our law books. Repeal the current hate crimes too.

Nearly 20 years ago, Jeff Schapiro and I were on the start-up team of Virginia Business magazine. I’ll never forget what it was like to stroll through the streets of downtown Richmond with Jeff, who had joined us after a stint with United Press International. He knew everybody. We literally couldn’t walk a block without Jeff bumping into some acquaintance and schmoozing for three or four minutes. It seemed as if he knew all the gossip on every politician of note in Richmond — and nearly everyone else.

I’ve always thought, if Jeff could just get into print one tenth of what he knows, this town would never be the same.

Now comes his chance. Jeff has joined the blogging revolution, unveiling his “Campaign 2005” blog today on the Richmond Times-Dispatch website. He’s still getting his sea legs. The opening posts are pretty bland. But Jeff is one of the most entertaining raconteurs I know, and with 20 years more experience under his belt, I’m sure, he has the inside skinny on everything worth knowing. Give him time to find his blogging voice, and Campaign 2005 could well become the “must read” journal of the Virginia blogosphere.

Media General, parent company of newspapers in Richmond, Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Danville, Bristol and several smaller Virginia communities, has reported that 3Q revenues and earnings will far short of targets. I cannot imagine a scenario in which the news gathering function at these newspapers does not suffer.

Publishing division revenues in August increased only 2.9 percent, considerably short of the five or six percent anticipated. According to a Media General press release issued today, the disappointing revenue outlook reflected weakness in “retail” advertising and circulation. (In other words, newspapers continue to lose readers), as well as higher-than-expected expenses.

If Media General remains true to form, it will issue emergency edicts to all operating units to cut costs by clamping down on new hires, curtailing travel, saving paperclips, etc. Enjoying no exemption, newsrooms may be tempted to reduce staff through attrition. The trends affecting Media General apply also to Landmark Communications (owner of the Norfolk and Roanoke newspapers), the Washington Post and the independents.

I agree with comments on my previous “Who Will Report the News” post that the Internet, laptops and other technology have improved newsroom productivity. But I maintain that reporting and writing remains a labor-intensive business. The only meaningful way to contain costs is to reduce pay (a real morale killer) or tighten staff size. Virginia’s journalistic future (in which I take no pleasure, not even schadenfreude, trust me): Fewer enterprise stories, fewer in-depth pieces, more rewriting of press releases, and more he said/she said reporting.

Let me make one thing very clear up front: Next to public safety, education is the most important thing that the Commonwealth of Virginia can spend money on. Having an educated citizenry is a prerequisite for prospering in a global economy. But that doesn’t mean we can afford to write the education establishment a blank check.

According to a story filed by Tyler Whitley in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Tim Kaine, Jerry Kilgore and Russ Potts all attended a forum at Virginia Commonwealth University yesterday to discuss education policy. All three candidates presented laundry lists of expenditures they propose for K-12 and higher education. Unless Whitley left something out of his bullet-list of initiatives, not one candidate offered a single idea for cutting costs, reallocating funds or holding the educational establishment more accountable.

Unbelievable. Gov. Mark R. Warner has pumped up spending on education by hundreds of millions of dollars a year, the federal government is spending record sums on K-12 support, and Virginia’s candidates are promising more, more, more.

I never expect much from most politicians, but I do expect more from our business and civic leaders. Sadly, most of them have become vapid cheerleaders for more spending. Give me an E! Give me a D! Give me a U…. What’s that spell? If our business leaders ran their own corporations they way they want to run the state — spending recklessly on new products and services without insisting upon productivity, results and accountability — they’d get hammered in the marketplace. The intellectual bankruptcy in Virginia’s leadership cadres is just appalling. I fear for the future of our Commonwealth.

RT-D Jeff Schapiro wrote, “Through press secretary Delacey Skinner, Kaine, the Democratic nominee, indicated that he, too, believes Virginia government should get tough with businesses that put illegal immigrants on the payroll.

‘If we discover a business is willfully violating immigration laws by hiring illegal immigrants, they should not be rewarded with state benefits, such as contracts,’ Skinner said.”

Oh, please! Democrat Tim Kaine is Pro-Herndon Day Labor center but against illegal immigration?

And the flip-flopping list goes on and on and on…

Pro-revenue but anti-property tax…
Pro-choice but anti-abortion…
Pro-gun but pro-Restrictions on Hand guns…
Tough on Crime but anti-Death penalty…
Pro-Gay & Lesbian but against same-Sex Marriages…
Pro-transportation but pro-Environment and controlled growth…

Exactly what does the flipping Democrat Tim Kaine stand for?

~ the blue dog

The Washington Post has several clips from yesterday’s debate up on its website, starting with the opening statements. We don’t need no live TeeVee. Judge for yourself if Kilgore should have seen Russert’s punch coming. Kaine on faith and the death penalty. Closing statements.

Jerry Kilgore doesn’t think that local authorities in Herndon should make life easier for illegal immigrants by setting up a special day-labor center for them. He’s repeatedly made it clear that his problem is not with immigrants, it’s with illegal immigrants.

According to Tim Kaine, that makes Kilgore “mean spirited.”

According to Tyler Whitley’s account of the Kaine-Kilgore debate yesterday, Kaine said: “There is a mean-spiritedness to your position. What Virginians need is a leader who is about bringing people together, who doesn’t run around Virginia beating up on 40 percent to get to 60 percent.”

Huh? Excuse me, who comprises the 40 percent that Kilgore supposedly was beating up on? Illegal immigrants don’t make up that large a percentage of Virginia’s population…. yet. And how does it constitute “beating up” someone to acknowledge that they’re in this country illegally? Are the police being “mean spirited” when they put Americans in jail for breaking the law?

Just how, exactly, does Kaine propose “bringing people together” on the issue of illegal immigration? What would a sweet-spirited approach to illegal immigrants look like? Looking the other way? Holding hands and singing Kumbaya? Opening welcome centers? Or maybe showing some old-fashioned Southern hospitality — “Ya’ll come back now. And make sure to bring your family and friends!”

I did not see the Kaine-Kilgore debate yesterday, so my comments are based on Tyler Whitney’s account in today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch. But it looks to me like Jerry Kilgore’s biggest enemy wasn’t Tim Kaine, it was Jerry Kilgore.

According to Whitley: “Kilgore repeatedly tried to turn the discussion to the $1.4 billion tax increase passed by the General Assembly with the support of Kaine and Gov. Mark R. Warner. ‘It wasn’t necessary, and we didn’t ask the people,’ Kilgore said.”

“But when asked, he said he would not try to roll back the increase.” (My italics.)

Question for Kilgore: If the tax increase was so unnecessary that you flog Tim Kaine with it every chance you get, and if Virginia is enjoying a budget surplus that far surpasses the size of the tax increase, then why the heck won’t you try to to roll back the increase? If you’re not willing to return some or all of the tax increase to taxpayers, then your attacks on Kaine amounts to nothing more than ritualistic campaign rhetoric. If you’re not willing to roll back the tax increases, nothing significant sets you apart from Kaine.

Speaking as one who thinks that we should roll back the tax increase, I see the voter’s choice as between two candidates who are both willing to accept the 2004-tax-increase status quo. The only issue is whether they’ll support new taxes. Kilgore says he wouldn’t increase taxes again without going first to the voters. Big whoop. That tells us nothing about how he’ll handle the relentless pressure for spending increases. Rather than confronting the issues, he’ll just pass the buck to the voters. What a cop-out. What a wimp!

Amerigroup Corp., one of Virginia’s fastest growing companies, administers managed care plans for Medicaid and Medicare programs. Based in Virginia Beach, the company is finally doing business in its home state, taking on responsibility for 24,000 Medicaid patients in Northern Virginia, mostly young mothers and children.

The company’s forte is preventive care. The company has developed effective techniques for identifying and treating medical problems of poor people before they deteriorate into full-fledged medical crises that require expensive emergency-room treatment. Programs focus on prenatal care, treating asthma and other ailments common among the Medicaid population.

According to Marjolijn Bijlefeld, writing in Virginia Business magazine, studies have shown significant savings in other states. “In Ohio, for example, inpatient costs decreased 27 percent under Medicaid managed care. In Wisconsin, the savings were estimated at nearly 11 percent.”

Virginia needs to aggressively implement preventive care across the state. Given the enormous size of the Medicaid budget, savings could amount to tens of millions, perhaps hundreds of millions, of dollars per year. We don’t need to cut poor people out of the program; we don’t need to short-change doctors and hospitals. We simply need to re-think our model for delivering health government-backed health care.

Not everybody agrees with Jim Bacon that all new roads are roads to ruin. Witness the editorial attitude of the Danville Register and Bee today, thankful for the economc growth spurred by a particular project. Compare that to the jeremiad unleashed on Route 288 in a new Bacon’s Rebellion article posted after the most recent distribution of the e-zine. All those houses, all those middle class families moving to western Chesterfield, all those new stores and jobs and parks and schools. Disgusting, isn’t it? The end of civilization as we know it.

The article would lead you to believe that Route 288 originated about the time of the Westcreek development and the proposed Motorola plant, but it had been on the planning table for 20 years prior to that. The route had to change, and 288 couldn’t fit exacly with I-295, because of all the development while the project was delayed. But the idea of a limited access loop around Richmond was hardly a radical idea, and if economic growth was one of the goals for that plan, nobody denied it. It used to be that creating jobs, wealth and home ownership were the conservative version of the social gospel. But the “Road to Ruin” crowd is not conservative at all, unless you thought the Luddites were conservatives.

I don’t think this gulf can be breached. Some people just honestly believe in the depths of their soul that if you don’t build the roads, the growth won’t come. Some of us believe that in the future mobility has to be the measure of value, planning has to be better and alternative modes need to be better integrated, but doing nothing — or doing nothing until some social utopia is achieved — is the real “Road to Ruin.”

On the Road to Ruin blog, I characterize Sen. Russ Potts’ transportation plan as a parody of itself — a document so lopsided in favor of taxes and new construction that even the Road Building lobby itself wouldn’t have the nerve to present it. For the masochists among you, I have included a link to a copy of the plan.