by James A. Bacon
Opioid deaths in Virginia have declined markedly since the end of the COVID epidemic, reports Virginia Public Media (VPM). The fatalities, many of which were attributable to fentanyl overdoses, peaked at 2,229 in 2021 and have fallen to a predicted 1,552 this year — down 30%.
That number is still frightfully high, of course. It exceeds the 907 automobile deaths, 520 homicides, 54 workplace fatalities, and 38 child-abuse fatalities all combined in 2023.
What accounts for the drop, even as the flow of fentanyl across the U.S. border with Mexico continues unimpeded? VPM cites Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Right Help, Right Now initiative which invests in education, prevention, recovery and treatment efforts. The article also describes at considerable length the increasing availability of naloxone, a medicine that quickly reverses an opioid overdose.
Those measures have been very helpful, I’m sure. But the account overlooks the obvious: the overdoses peaked during the height of the COVID epidemic, and the numbers began declining as the epidemic receded. Could there be a connection there?
Hold on… hold on… I’m thinking…
I’ve got it! The COVID virus wasn’t contributing to the overdose epidemic. The COVID shutdown was contributing to the overdose epidemic!
The linkage between shutdowns and substance abuse was so obvious that I (and others) warned at the time about the potential repercussions. Throwing people out of work and enforcing their isolation, regardless of their age- and comorbidity-adjusted risk, contributed to stress, isolation, and loneliness. Perhaps most devastatingly, the shutdowns interrupted recovery networks across Virginia — in-person meetings which alcohol and drug addicts counted on to maintain their sobriety. Zoom meetings, it turns out, were a poor substitute. Untold numbers of Virginians fell off the recovery wagon.
Opioid deaths were high and rising before COVID, so we can’t blame the shutdowns for all of them. But we can suggest that the shutdown indirectly contributed to 600 to 700 opioid-overdose deaths in 2021 and smaller numbers the next two years… perhaps a thousand in all.
That’s a small percentage of the nearly 24,000 COVID-related fatalities reported in the state, so we need to keep the relative magnitude in perspective. COVID was by far the bigger threat. Still, there’s a lesson here: government actions have unintended consequences. Virginia policy makers at the time focused exclusively upon the COVID threat without considering the implications for the economy, foregone medical procedures, disrupted K-12 education, mental health, or addiction.
Hopefully, we won’t make that mistake again.
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