by Paul Goldman

Just when the Virginia GOP thought it couldn’t get worse this year. They lose votes every time Trump’s name is in the newspaper. So, what happens if he gets the Nobel Peace Prize? Does he suddenly go from albatross to asset?

Remember, the Norwegians gave the prize to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. As a long-time anti-Vietnam War protester, this disgusted me: The Nixon-Kissinger policy had intentionally extended the war for several years for political reasons, not shortened it. Nothing the Norwegians dominating the Nobel committee picking the winner might do would shock me.  

That having been said: Looking at the history of the 111 individual winners over the years, Trump winning is not another Virginia GOP MAGA fantasy. Three sitting American Presidents have won: Teddy Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Barack Obama. The latter conceded he really hadn’t been in office long enough to do anything worthy to win the prize. 

Wilson won for his work to create the League of Nations. Wilson never got the United States to join. Indeed, when campaigning around the country to generate support for joining the League, Wilson suffered a stroke, leaving him secretly paralyzed in the White House for the remainder of the second term. The League of Nations was a key part of the Treaty of Versailles. The treaty’s punitive anti-German terms led directly to the rise of Adolf Hitler and thus the second world war. 

President Roosevelt got the award for his mediation efforts to end the Russia-Japanese war. Although frankly, it’s not quite clear what he did. He was too busy to actually attend the Nobel Peace prize ceremonies. 

Wilson ran for reelection in 1916 saying “he kept us out of war.” World War I then raging in Europe. Most Americans didn’t want to get involved. Wilson secretly did. Therefore, notice his clever slogan. He had “kept us” out of war. He didn’t promise to “keep us” out of war. This had been an intentional choice by his campaign advisors.

Less than a month after Wilson’s second inauguration, he got the United States Senate to declare war on Germany. Contrary to most history books, the American people never truly supported the nation’s entry into the “war to end all wars.” They knew it wasn’t gonna end anything. Voters punished the Democrats in the 1920 presidential election, giving Republicans the first of three straight, huge landslide wins. It took the Great Depression to end the streak.

Choosing the Virginia native as a peace prize recipient might baffle certain minds of a reasonable nature.

As for Teddy Roosevelt, his macho image was largely based on his leading the charge up San Juan Hill in the Spanish–American war. Truth is he never led any charge up San Juan Hill. It was another Hill. But as they say close enough for government work. Over 100 years later, he was awarded the Medal of Honor for his actions in that battle. 

Which gets us to President Donald J Trump. Twenty-three Americans have won the Peace prize. The most of any country. World War II Secretary of Defense George Marshall won the award in 1953. He won for his work in developing and implementing what became known as the Marshall Plan. Americans and their allies had learned from their mistakes in the Treaty of Versailles. Instead of punishing Germany and Italy, Marshall led the effort to rebuild all of Europe including the defeated enemies. It has proven to be one of the most important and insightful decisions in world history. He certainly had been one of the worhtiest recipients, even though his career had been based on being a military warrior. 

But Americans had not started either world war. The Norwegians also knew that without America, they’d be speaking in German, at least those left alive. America’s decision to be friend Germany and Japan, despite what they had done, is surely one of the most generous acts by any victim in any war in recorded history.

My point being: There’s a misconception about the Peace prize somehow only going to pacifists or those who spent a lifetime advocating against war or oppression. The history of the prize is far more complicated.

The 2025 Nobel peace prize will be awarded on October 10 of this year right in the middle of Virginia’s gubernatorial campaign. As I have demonstrated before, the historical statistical evidence says President Trump hangs over the Virginia elections this year. Trump last sat in the White House in 2017.  In that year, the Democratic ticket had its biggest win since 1985. The whole ticket swept in by Ralph Northam’s 9% win. 

Right now, as I pointed out months ago, the Democrats are on pace to an even bigger sweep.

Which raises the question: Would Donald Trump, now mired in the Epstein scandal, go from albatross to asset he won the Peace prize?

Let’s assume arguendo he gets credit for ending the Ukrainian Russian war. Further, assume he gets credit for ending the war raging in the Middle East since the Hamas attack on Israel. Further, assume the Iranians come to their senses. They agree not to develop an atomic weapon. Assume further they agree to an inspection resume allowing the West to make sure they live up to the agreement.

Trump has clearly strong-armed the NATO countries to boost spending on defense. We know Europe is increasingly fearful of hostilities with Russia. Assume further part of the Ukrainian-Russian agreement are actions by Putin making Europe feel safer.

Let’s be honest: If all this would’ve happened say by September 10 — and those involved gave Trump the major credit — this would be a record surely equal to the other sitting American presidents awarded the Peace prize.

Like I say, nothing the Norwegian’s might do could possibly surprise me. They gave the prize to Dr. Martin Luther King. He surely deserved it. As have the overwhelming majority of recipients based on their biographies and lifelong work. 

But like Teddy Roosevelt, the what-if scenario discussed above, if it were to come true, would make Trump one of the few people who had actually been credited with stopping an ongoing war. That is rare

This would seem to be a good thing for those responsible for picking the winner. Unlike TR, I feel quite certain President Trump would attend the award ceremonies to give a one-hour speech praising himself. 

But would his getting the prize help the Republicans here in 2025? In my view, it would hurt. This may seem perverse. But it makes political sense to someone who understands politics. Trump is an albatross this year in 2025 as he was in 2017. The current two-party era in Virginia started in 1977. Since then, no government material nominee of the city president’s party has ever received 50% of the vote. 

A sitting president, therefore, has never been an asset in the Virginia gubernatorial race since Democrats stopped nominating a candidate with ties to the segregationist Byrd machine.

It won’t matter whether the Saudis give the Norwegians $100 billion to rename the prize after Trump.

Anything keeping Trump in the news is bad news for the Virginia GOP in 2025. The Republicans brought this on themselves. 

For Virginia Republicans, the only good from the Peace prize would be for Trump to fly overseas to attend the ceremonies. Then not return to America until after the election. That being said, a fair solution to the Ukrainian–Russian war, which has killed an incredible number of people, would be a worthy achievement for anybody. Tens of millions of innocent people will suffer for decades under the best of terms.

As for me, I don’t think Trump deserves the prize any more than Kissinger did. But that’s one man’s opinion and I’m not Norwegian. 

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party, a former candidate for mayor of the City of Richmond, and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”