Bacon's Rebellion

The South Shall Rise Again

—

by

James A. Bacon
in

 The South is projected to have the fastest-growing population of any region in the U.S. through 2050, surpassing even the West, according to the demographics research group at the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. The population of the Midwest and Northeast are expected to shrink slightly between 2030 and 2050.

However, the population boom in the South is not uniform — it is concentrated in Texas, Tennessee and the South Atlantic states — Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Other Southern states are projected to experience slow population growth. Virginia, one of three states nationally classified in this analysis as having population growth that “fluctuates over the decades,” is more of a question mark.

While many variables factor into a state’s rate of population growth or decline, it has long been true that people go where the jobs are. We may need to update that dictum as the Baby Boomer generation retires en masse. People also go where the retirement communities are.

— JAB

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59 responses to “The South Shall Rise Again”

  1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    A interesting map comparing 2016 to 2020. Probably influenced a bit by this migration that will likely show a similar trend this time around. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/347d395f92e811abc84642971ba651e52701563e3208b3d810b90bc6c1de9502.jpg

  2. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
    f/k/a_tmtfairfax

    The Carolinas are becoming a prime choice of many Metro D.C. expats and those who are thinking of retirement years somewhere else.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      My (now passed) Father-in-law picked NC as well as the middle of NC (between mountains and beaches) – a place called West End in the sandhills a short distance from Pinehurst.

      The polar opposite of NoVa or NC's Triangle or Charlotte but
      I'd never live in a gated community like he did. The HOA was just
      oppressive but it fit the people who chose to live there.

    2. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      You are exactly right, TMT. At the higher end, the math goes something like this … a NoVa couple buys a house for $400,000 in 1990, raises their 3 children until they go off to college, retire, and realize their house is now worth $1.8m. Unless their kids stay in NoVa (increasingly a rarity), they don't want the congestion, cost, or taxes required to remain in NoVa. The house is paid off, so the entire $1.8m is converted to cash on sale. They move to NC or SC, buy a beautiful house for $800,000 and pocket $1m.

      My big question is why "other than NoVa" in Virginia isn't as good an idea as NC or SC for these relatively young retirees?

      What are these 60 – 70 year old retirees looking for? Affordability seems obvious, but almost anywhere outside of NoVa is more affordable than NoVa. Is it health care, transportation, amenities like golf courses?

      I don't know how old you are but I know you moved from NoVa to Wake County, NC. What was it about Wake County that caught your eye?

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        A LOT of them want to be NEAR their kids that work in NoVa. Quess where that is?

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/482769521398fa57bd01aba9acb609bce1ef82993951cfe9bfa3881a49190b7f.png

      2. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
        f/k/a_tmtfairfax

        My daughter went to NC State and remained in Raleigh after graduation. She, her husband and her son live about 6 miles from us. A few years ago, my son and his then girlfriend moved from Manassas Park to Charlotte. (Needless to say, they broke up a few months after moving.) He's in the process of moving to the Raleigh area because of a new job.

        The winters here are milder, and the summers are comparable, except that, because of a slightly higher elevation, we have more summer breezes here. Sales taxes are a bit higher here and apply to more things. The individual income tax is going down to 3.99% and the corporate income tax rate is being phased out. Lots of companies starting or opening offices in N.C. Real estate taxes are not insignificant but are substantially lower.

        Traffic congestion exists but is not comparable to the Metro D.C. area. It took an hour plus in a Lyft to go from Nationals Stadium to Tysons last Saturday night. Driving up last Thursday, Apple Car Play sent me off I-95 in PW County and into Fairfax before reentering I-95.

        We sold a significantly smaller house in McLean and built a new one (customized to age in) in Wake Forest about 1/4 mile from a lake surrounded by park land with miles of trails. We paid off the mortgage, bought virtually all new furniture and had enough money left over to buy new cars.

        I'm very glad I lived in the D.C. Metro for almost 38 years, but, absent other factors, it's no place to retire.

        1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
          energyNOW_Fan

          …"bought new cars" in NC, that would have been fatal tax error here!

      3. walter smith Avatar
        walter smith

        "My big question is why "other than NoVa" in Virginia isn't as good an idea as NC or SC for these relatively young retirees?"

        My guess is because of the politics of NoVa affecting the rest of the Commonwealth. Fairfax and NoVA used not to be the Marxists they are now. Too much of the Fedvid virus now infecting all…

      4. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        In Manassas, the math went like this:

        $191K for a house in September 1988.

        Sold for $580K in January 2022, after spending roughly $40K to make it ready for sale (some of what had to be fixed was screwed up by the original builder), so consider it as selling for $540K.

        By way of comparison, $191K in 1988 dollars was worth $470K in 2022.

        Did somewhat better than inflation, but still not very good.

        That's Manassas for ya.

        Where dreams go to die.

        I'm convinced that there's really two NoVAs—the NoVA where you can do what you talk about…and the NoVA that is my experience.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          470K vs 545K ? Had you put the 190K into mutal fund?

          1. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Putting that $190K in a mutual fund would have yielded far more than $545k over the 34 years.

            Dad sold the house we moved from for $120K and bought this overpriced piece of Manassas garbage (but I repeat myself) for $190K, having to dip into his savings to make up the $70K difference (I don't know how much he owed on the $12oK house so it was probably more than $70K).

            I suspect, without having looked up the numbers, even $70K invested in a mutual find in 1988 would have been worth well over $500K by 2022.

            EDIT: $2,068,143.84, according to a calculator, assuming a 10% annual return.

            Moving to NoVA wrecked my family financially.

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Putting that $190K in a mutual fund would have yielded far more than $545k over the 34 years.

            Dad sold the house we moved from for $120K and bought this overpriced piece of Manassas garbage (but I repeat myself) for $190K, having to dip into his savings to make up the $70K difference (I don't know how much he owed on the $12oK house so it was probably more than $70K).

            I suspect, without having looked up the numbers, even $70K invested in a mutual find in 1988 would have been worth well over $500K by 2022.

            EDIT: $2,068,143.84, according to a calculator, assuming a 10% annual return.

            Moving to NoVA wrecked my family financially.

          3. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            We sold father-in-law house for less than market then invested the net amt received. It’s already earned a bunch but lots of taxes owed. Localities have to have “X” dollars… how they allocate it via vehicles/real estate can vary but what doesn’t change, is that they need the “X” dollars and some folks will not be happy no matter how it is allocated, they just don’t want to pay taxes! 😉

          4. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            It's not the taxes that bother me. They are what they are. It's that my dad moved to Manassas to keep his job, didn't get a raise, bought an overpriced piece of garbage house that barely appreciated at a rate higher than inflation, then got laid off 7 years later and, not being a lawyer or government lobbyist or politician or other white-collar professional, couldn't find a job that paid what he was making before so he took a pay cut (pretty certain he'd have had no problem finding a job back where we came from, but by then the parents had divorced and him moving was probably off the table).

            When I see people complain about NoVA on here, the problem seems to be that they don't like NoVA for what it's become. To them, it was once good, but is no longer.

            I have never seen NoVA as being good.

          5. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Sound like “life” happened to your Dad and maybe you had some choices. Never a fan of NoVa and no fan of folks that move down here from NoVa and bring with them NoVa values.

          6. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I keep saying I should've moved out of here (and by that I mean out of Virginia) 20 years ago when I could've sold my Manassas townhouse for $500K ('course, it probably would've ended up in foreclosure, but that wouldn't have been my problem…)

            I never understood why someone would move to NoVA and then take a job that only pays them enough to live 50 miles from work.

            Unless you're moving to NoVA for the kind of money that will allow you to live in Loudoun, Fairfax, or Arlington…you're making a big, big mistake.

          7. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I keep saying I should've moved out of here (and by that I mean out of Virginia) 20 years ago when I could've sold my Manassas townhouse for $500K ('course, it probably would've ended up in foreclosure, but that wouldn't have been my problem…)

            I never understood why someone would move to NoVA and then take a job that only pays them enough to live 50 miles from work.

            Unless you're moving to NoVA for the kind of money that will allow you to live in Loudoun, Fairfax, or Arlington…you're making a big, big mistake.

          8. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I keep saying I should've moved out of here (and by that I mean out of Virginia) 20 years ago when I could've sold my Manassas townhouse for $500K ('course, it probably would've ended up in foreclosure, but that wouldn't have been my problem…)

            I never understood why someone would move to NoVA and then take a job that only pays them enough to live 50 miles from work.

            Unless you're moving to NoVA for the kind of money that will allow you to live in Loudoun, Fairfax, or Arlington…you're making a big, big mistake.

          9. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            They come from all over the country, only looking at starting salary and not cost of living as well as traffic hell. We get NoVa folks down this way all the time. They like driving a lot but hate taxes including those needed to pay for more roads. The only solution for NoVa folks is toll roads. Otherwise they’ll gridlock every road driving for pizza or “super deals” somewhere.!

          10. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            For people who like driving a lot, they sure aren't very good at it…

            and if my friend's repo lot is any indication, they aren't any better at paying their car note!

          11. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            For people who like driving a lot, they sure aren't very good at it…

            and if my friend's repo lot is any indication, they aren't any better at paying their car note!

          12. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            For people who like driving a lot, they sure aren't very good at it…

            and if my friend's repo lot is any indication, they aren't any better at paying their car note!

          13. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            THey clearly like driving! And judging by the restaurants , they like eating out a LOT also! Much if not most of our “growth” down here (from 15K to 140K) is NoVa folks moving south an clogging up I-95 for their commutes and local roads after they get home from commuting. Insane!

          14. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Bunch of restaurants in Central Park have closed over the last 10 years, so maybe they don't like eating out enough…

            Those people clog up the roads in Nokesville, too. We call Fleetwood Drive the "Stafford County Parkway".

          15. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            The restaurants get replaced with others and Frederickburg city is a favorite for foodies… At 9 and 10
            at night they are clogging the roads coming home from restaurants. At midnight, the roads are empty.

          16. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            When was the last time you were actually out at midnight? There’s still a surprising amount of traffic at midnight these days. Not like it was 30 years ago.

          17. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Oh I’m out at midnight sometimes and there is some traffic I admit, but NOTHING compared to 8 or 9pm!
            We just don’t have much that is open at that hour, unlike NoVa. People out at midnight is hard core
            “driving”.

          18. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Since COVID there’s little that’s open at midnight in NOVA anymore. Maybe Denny’s and the gas stations.

          19. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            It’s inexplicable to me… who drives at that hour and why?

          20. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m usually heading home from a trip out of state.

          21. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Yep, that’s our habit… leaving or coming on trips – don’t do when NoVa traffic is ongoing…if possible

          22. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I used to work the late shift in Alexandria, and once a week I’d leave work at about midnight to come home (once a week I’d use RealAudio to encode a radio show that started at about 10pm). In 1998, there was almost nobody on I-66 at midnight.

          23. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            In a modern economy , there are folks who work late night/early morning, for sure but down our way,
            we’re talking one or two or three at the traffic signals, that kind of thing.

          24. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I don’t doubt for a minute that the same factors that have resulted in an increase over the years in the midnight traffic on I66….

            …have also resulted in an increase in midnight traffic elsewhere, like Fredericksburg.

            As far as the economy goes, I think the DMV, as compared to other metro areas with more diverse employment, is more of a 9 to 5 area.

          25. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            DMV? NoVa + md/dc? Well, yes, any METRO area is going to have things like Hospitals, Law Enforcement, VDOT, 24/7 M&O stuff. but when you get out to the suburbs.. at the fringes of where there are still traffic signals, it’s pretty sparse. 10 miles out for the “Burg”, we see some midnight traffic but it’s pretty thin mostly schools and LE. and a few others. but come commute hour, it’s chock-a-block .. busy during the day with shopping/dr appointments, etc, then afternoon/evening commute, then restaurants.. it’s the lifestyle of the NoVa escapees come-heres. THey just have an auto-centric lifestyle. They’re not stay-at-home folk.

  3. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    "We may need to update that dictum as the Baby Boomer generation retires en masse. People also go where the retirement communities are."

    Excellent observation.

    Is Virginia's vaunted economic development program aware of this trend?

    Retirees pay taxes, commit very few crimes, have no school aged children, and don't require major highways to commute to and from work.

    Virginia's economic development efforts seem focused on "build ready" pad sites, data centers, etc.

    Why not retirement communities in bucolic places like Nelson County or small cities like Roanoke?

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      As said before, the state is VERY tax friendly to military retirees.

      Are you familiar with the existing retirement communities in Virginia? There are several.

    2. Nancy Naive Avatar
      Nancy Naive

      While all of the qualities of retirees you listed are true-ish, crime, children, traffic, will still follow them in the form of all the younger generations required to provide services to the retirees.

      No matter where you go, there you are.

      Bedford seems a “retirement area”. Apparently a lot of medical facilities close by, Smith Mtn lake, restaurants, vineyards, and microbreweries.

    3. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d83fd6c51133232cacde864d670b4e41d727a11f2fa2002ce3d407163570a0bd.png

    4. Teddy007 Avatar
      Teddy007

      Retirees also vote against school bonds, are generally NIMBY, and actually pay little in taxes.

  4. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Noticing the places with extreme heat to the point, it's not enjoyable to be outside for most activities and wondering if that will affect people's choices.

    Noticing places with wildfires, tornadoes and hurricanes and wondering if that influences some folks.

    If we truly are going to see more and more heat, fires, floods… will people make decisions to avoid them if they can?

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      Re: extreme heat … go see Naples, FL. It's hotter than Hades in the summer but growing like a weed. Of course, the weather is nearly perfect for 7 – 9 months a year.

      Wildfires and tornadoes are relatively rare and not a major consideration, IMO.

      Hurricanes are another matter altogether. Not only do you face the real risk of having your home and community wiped out, having to evacuate on short notice for a week or two every other year seems like a gigantic hassle.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        Insurance companies are helping a lot in the "decisions" whether it be Florida or California or in between. People can
        believe what they want to believe about extreme temps and weather but gonna be on their own dime.

  5. Thomas Carter Avatar
    Thomas Carter

    The come-here conundrum?

  6. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    and I’m looking north; give up the salt life for a deep mountain lake.

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhu6l6SLJWc
      One of my all time favorite Neil Young songs.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Is it just me, or is that “Blue Bayou” with different words? Never did warm to Neil Young, even with CSN.

        1. WayneS Avatar
          WayneS

          Never did warm to Neil Young, even with CSN.

          Oh dear. It's going to take some time for me to decide whether I still like you or not… 😉

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            But, I love the Kinks.

            If G. Gordon Liddy and Timothy Leary could be friends, there is hope for the world.

          2. WayneS Avatar
            WayneS

            But, I love the Kinks.

            Well okay then. You are fully redeemed. 😎

    2. f/k/a_tmtfairfax Avatar
      f/k/a_tmtfairfax

      A brother of mine lives in New Hampshire and has done so for years. They seem to like a lot.

      1. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Oh yes. Summered there with the spousal unit’s family in the Sunapee area. Nothing like jumping into a 60 to 70 degree lake, swimming for 1/2 hour, drying off and eating breakfast.

        It’s the ice in the winter…

  7. Teddy007 Avatar
    Teddy007

    So people are going to move into areas of increasing temperatures and more severe weather. Everyone should brace for higher homeowners and auto insurance rates.

    Just like Virginia is growing without increasing the electric supply, Arizona is growing with a shrinking water supply and increased summer temperatures.

  8. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    Well we Virginia are catering to lower incomes with favorable tax policies there. Also catering to service members, it would be interesting to see if our retention is better for those favored demographics. We slam middle class extra hard to compensate, and we tax the living bejesus out of their cars each year. Those folks don't just leave, it's good riddance. And the blue elected officials feel we are paying only at most 30% of what we should be paying for taxes and green electric. So yes Virginia is a question mark.

  9. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    Well we Virginia are catering to lower incomes with favorable tax policies there. Also catering to service members, it would be interesting to see if our retention is better for those favored demographics. We slam middle class extra hard to compensate, and we tax the living bejesus out of their cars each year. Those folks don't just leave, it's good riddance. And the blue elected officials feel we are paying only at most 30% of what we should be paying for taxes and green electric. So yes Virginia is a question mark.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      I get the impression, they tax the cars so that renters can pay their fair share but it rolls back on those who own homes and cars!

      1. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        When I was a landlord, I included the real estate tax in the rent.

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          makes sense. If they reduce the auto tax, they’ll have to increase the real estate tax, right?

  10. oromae Avatar
    oromae

    Yes, as the ne and woke coast fade away 😁

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