Bacon's Rebellion

Survey USA Poll Shows Kaine Ahead

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by

James A. Bacon
in

The Kaine campaign is touting a new Survey USA poll showing Tim Kaine with a 47 percent-to-45 percent lead over Jerry Kilgore in the Virginia gubernatorial campaign.

The Kaine camp is spinning the poll this way:

  • Since the first Survey USA poll in this race in March, Tim Kaine has gained 11 points, while Jerry Kilgore has lost one.
  • Because this poll was taken just this past weekend, we know that Jerry Kilgore’s dishonest negative ads are backfiring on him.
  • Virginia’s moderate and independent voters overwhelmingly favor Tim Kaine. Tim leads 63 percent to 29 percent among moderates and 50 percent to 38 percent among independents.

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  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Here is a link to the survey:
    Survey USA

    And that’s how I’d spin it, too, but the sample was a bit too soon to see the full impact of the new ads and resulting news coverage. A Rasmussen Poll a couple days earlier showed Kilgore up 2. If I can find that link I’ll post it, too. Bottom line: a horserace. Kaine’s battlefield conversion into an anti-sprawl warrior also stirs the pot.

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Here’s
    Rasmussen.

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    You really shouldn’t put much stock in comparing different polls: they use different methodolgies.

    For all the time Chad has spent reprinting the Kilgore emails I too get in my inbox, you’d expect that Kaine would be plummeting. Instead, outside of that little bubble, it seems like only extremists are exited by Kilgore, and moderate voters don’t really appreciate how he has continually pushed the envelope on nasty and dishonest.

  4. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Here is the link for the real junkies, a compilation.
    RealClear Politics

    You can put some stock in that kind of compiled tracking, but we still need to see a new Post poll, new Mason Dixon, to fill out the picture post debate and with these new ads and themes. They might also track the down ticket races. Finally, at this point you start hearing rumors about the gubernatorial head to head numbers in house race polls, which can be very telling (is Kaine up in a traditionally R district? or Kilgore in a rural district Warner carried?) Polls close in 21 days and 8 hours….

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “You can put some stock in…”

    Not really, at least, not as a layperson. Doing meta-poll comparison studies requires doing all sorts of things like recalculating error and so forth that you can’t do just by glancing at the final score. A better guage of things for the layperson is in comparing polls with similar sampling and survey methodologies across time. Even this isn’t precisely kosher, but it does at least give you a more legitimate sense of comparison. By all those measures, in every poll, it seems like the more people learn about Kaine and Kilgore the more they tend to favor Kaine despite of (or perhaps in light of) all the character attacks: especially indepedents and centrists. Kilgore really is disappointing as a Republican front-runner.

  6. Chad Avatar
    Chad

    Boy, I get attacked on at least one thread on every Virginia blog every day. You’d think I was running for Governor or something. 🙂

    A question just occurred to me. Perhaps someone can enlighten us.

    Aren’t polls taken over the weekend notoriously unreliable? I’ve always heard that samples taken on the weekend tend to favor Democrats, but I have no idea if that is actually the case.

    I do know that many companies won’t put out a poll in which the entire sample is taken over a weekend.

    Thoughts?

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Chad,

    In my experience, when it gets to the point where you’re trying to question the methodology of a major polling outfit whose results a few months ago you were crowing about, you’re in real trouble (or rather your candidate is).

    Jerry Kilgore is in a very tough spot. But this polling progression was *always* in the cards. Virginia leans heavily Republican. So when Virginians are asked whether they’ll vote for the Republican or the Democrat and they don’t know anything about either, they’ll break in support of the Republican. That’s where Kilgore’s early high numbers came from. Trouble is that Kilgore comes across as a weak, prancing little sissy. Every time he opens his mouth, he loses votes. As the campaign progressed, people saw more of each candidate. Naturally, they have a real aversion to Kilgore’s effeminate voice and demeanor. Tim Kaine may not be anything particularly fabulous, but he’s a steady hand who looks and sounds like a plausible governor.

    Kaine *will* continue to rise in the polls by a few more points. There’s nothing that Kilgore can do about it. The real deciding factor in the race is not any issue per se. It’s Jerry Kilgore’s weak, sissy persona that he can’t hide, what with running for Governor. Couple this with Kilgore’s ‘Hitler’ ads that seem to be turning voters off, and you have a race that unfortunately has nothing to do with ideas or issues but rather a superficial perception of character.

    The bottom line is that Jerry Kilgore is in some serious trouble. What’s going on right now that’s going to get the GOP base to come out in force? The Hitler ad? Puh-leese. In the current political climate, Kilgore would need a major anti-gay initiative or a dramatic anti-abortion measure to really wake the base up. The Dems will have no trouble with turnout at all, given how furious they are at the Republican party and it’s scandals in general. They want revenge for Kerry’s loss. These guys are out for blood and they’re all going to vote. Kilgore has irrevocably lost the center and has nothing of substance to guarantee a massive turnout from his base.

  8. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    The last poster has hit the nail on the head. This race has nothing to do with the issues. It has to do with 3 things:

    1. Mark Warner’s popularity
    2. Jerry Kilgore’s voice
    3. The moods of each party’s base.

    On point 3, the Democratic base is considerably more fired up than the Republican base.

  9. saywhat?? Avatar
    saywhat??

    Is it fair to say Mark Warner’s popularity is issues-based?

  10. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Dear anomymous Democratic Spinmeister: You’re good, but we’ll see if any future polls bear you out. I don’t sense any excitement in either party outside the activists, and that is the story of the election. Kaine is growing because he is locking down the D base, which in earlier polls was less attached to him. The movement started with the first Warner endorsement ad and with Bush doing that stupid flyby over New Orleans. But I see in the latest polls the tight as a tick race we’ve all expected — down to the wire. Turnout, motivation, who has the better last weekend will all matter.

    Chad, no, I don’t think weekends matter.

  11. Robert Avatar
    Robert

    On point 3, the Democratic base is considerably more fired up than the Republican base.

    I think the above observation is the key to understanding this election. Consider:

    1. This is an off-year election that hasn’t had much news coverage.

    2. In off-year elections, get out the vote matters significantly more than appealing to moderates. Those who haven’t already made up their minds about the election are fairly unlikely to care enough about the results to vote.

    3. Both candidates have based their campaigns on appealing to the middle. However, this hurts Kilgore more than Kaine, because Kaine’s base is by nature more loyal.

    Therefore, the election comes down to which base is most willing to accept a candidate who compromises.

    1. Kaine has a dedicated base of liberal voters who will vote for him no matter what. Kaine’s base is motivated less by their candidate than by their opposition to President Bush and their fear of a Supreme Court reversal on Roe vs. Wade. Today’s Liberals are really single-issue voters and the issue is “Down with Bush!”

    2. Kilgore doesn’t exactly inspire his base. His position on abortion is less than solid.

    3. Kilgore has failed to challenege Kaine on many of the issues conservative Republicans really care about. Even without a solid pro-life stand, Kilgore could probably motivate his base by taking a strong position on homosexuality, the nanny state, stem-cell research, etc. The death penalty issue helps him here, but I don’t think it’s enough. Especially when many conservative voters are Catholics who take the other side of the death penalty issue.

  12. James Atticus Bowden Avatar
    James Atticus Bowden

    I worked at the Republican Booth at the Poquoson Seafood Festival last weekend when over 80,000 Virginians filed by. It was so different from last year.

    In 04 there was a jazzed purpose to get stickers, volunteer, etc to help Bush win.

    This year was much more quiet. A few people asked for bumper stickers and yard signs. Many folks were interested in our local delegate’s race where a lifelong Democrat is running as a faux independent (91 HD) who will raise taxes.

    Some folks I know and complete strangers took the time to fuss at me about the Kilgore campaign platform. But, they will still vote for Kilgore over the Liberal.

    There was far less interest, if people chatting and stickers is any indicator, in the Democrat candidates.

    I think Kilgore will win in a close vote.

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “Kaine *will* continue to rise in the polls by a few more points. There’s nothing that Kilgore can do about it.”

    I don’t see that either: from what is he going to draw this extra support from when he’s already ahead? This election is so close because the numbers only allow a Republican runaway, not a Dem one. Given that there is no Republican runaway, as any competant Republican could have pulled off hin this state, this is very very bad news for Kilgore. It doesn’t mean Kaine will win, but this is his winning scenario playing out, not Kilgore’s. Kaine is doing incredibly well against what you would expect in this state, obviously enough to surprise Kilgore’s folks into attacking the same polls they were touting a few months ago, rolling out their Death Penalty October surprise early (which now seems to have backfired), and generally declaring victory on a new issue every other week as Kaine’s polling continues a steady rise (Taxes seals the deal for Kilgore! No, it’s immigration! Game over for Kaine! No wait, this death penalty stuff is definately his last breath!): a sure sign of desperation unfortunately gone unheard by most of the actual undecided electorate.

  14. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    JAB: Now that was a useful intelligence report. That is an area of Virgin1a JK needs to do very, very well in. The Gilliland-Gear race may provide a needed extra reason to turn out.

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