• FURTHER NOTE ON HOUSING

    On 9 November we posted โ€œWRONG SIZE HOUSE, WRONG LOCATION.

    Subsequently, we promised to add a note in response to several comments. The original string is now 48 comments long, many of them not related to the core issue. So we will start over.

    Groveton asked: โ€œWhat makes a right location?โ€ โ€œRight locationโ€ is not determined by what any one person or Household does, it is determined by what everyone in the Community does to achieve Balance.

    Groveton puts it this way: โ€œ… whether my house is in the right location seems to depend a lot on whether my job is in the right location.โ€

    That is a start but it is not just the house and the job that matters.

    It is Balance of J / H / S / R / A that matters. It is all the elements required to assemble a quality life. As many of the elements as possible that are needed to make you happy and safe should be โ€œin the best locations.โ€ As a backup there needs to be a shared vehicle system to get you to a few high value places that do not fit in the Village-scale station area or in the Community โ€“ say a job in the Zentrum, the Regional train station, stadium or concert hall.

    Lets us assume one has a job and a home that are in convenient proximity. Next thing you know, children are on the horizon. The question that the partners must ask is not โ€œwhere is the best school?โ€

    The questionS are:

    What can we do with those in my Dooryard and Cluster to crate the best environment for infants and toddlers?

    What can we do with those in my Neighborhood to create the best environment and education for our grade schoolers?

    What can we do with those in my Village to create the best environment and education for our junior and senior high schoolers?

    What can we do with those in my Community to create the best environment and community Agencies and Institutions โ€“ including a Community college for all of us?

    Ask not where to go to find a ________, ask how can we can create great ________s in this Community.

    You say you move too often and change living patterns too often to make this work?

    You may think you are still living in the past when burning through Natural Capital paid for a much wider range of choice and the level of excess which is reflected in the widening wealth gap, the financial crisis, food insecurity, energy dependence, etc., and, of course, dysfunctional settlement patterns.

    In fact there never was a time when this โ€œgo where and when I wantโ€ strategy worked for more than a few at the top of the Ziggurat. It seemed like it a few decades ago but that was a temporary illusion driven by advertising and living off of cheap energy and foreign debt.

    The Large, Private Vehicle Mobility Myth is that a Household can live where they want, seek employment where they want and then Agencies can provide a Mobility and Access system that allows everyone to go wherever they what, whenever they want and arrive in a timely manner.

    Larry Gross asks again about โ€œdata.โ€ We will get to data (again) in a further note as promised in UPON FURTHER REVIEW.

    TMT said โ€œAs I understand the rule, if you take a job on the Hill, you should sell your house…โ€

    Well that is a problem. Some will be able to do that, not everyone.

    TMT, let us be clear the โ€œRuleโ€ is โ€œpay the full location variable cost and you can do what you want.โ€

    However, given humans โ€“ especially in the US of A โ€“ have burned through so much of their Natural Capital they will find the choices going forward are constrained by the market and by democratic processes โ€“ if humans are fortunate enough to preserve democracy and a market economy in the face of declining resources and growing demand by those who have been left behind by past actions.

    If you think there are too many taxes now, just wait until you finally get around to costing out the true location-variable tab for the life style you espouse as a right.

    The choice is intelligent and Fundamental Transformation or

    Collapse.

    Failure to prepare for the future and failure to reconsider traditional practices when conditions change is the prelude to Collapse.

    As you may have noted, conditions HAVE changed.

    It is depressing that Large, Private Vehicles and the Wrong Size Houses in the Wrong Location โ€“ places like Mountain Home โ€“ are the primary drivers of dysfunctional human settlement patterns. In spite of this reality, they have been used to โ€œrecoverโ€ from every recession since The Great Depression.

    Now, when it should be clear to all that a new perspective is needed to achieve a sustainable trajectory for civilization, all the โ€œleadershipโ€ is talking about is bailing out Detroit and propping up a flawed financial system exposed by the mortgage, derivative and default swap meltdown.

    EMR


  • UPON FURTHER REVIEW

    In late September and early October EMR posted four notes on the prospect of obtaining a sustainable trajectory for civilization. These posts generated an inordinate number of unfounded, negative comments. Since Jim Bacon has taken on new responsibilities, he no longer has time for comments such as โ€œ… I have been editing EMRโ€™s work for X years and never once have I seen him suggest …โ€ Without these admonitions, the attacks have become more pointed, more personal and farther from the topic of the post.

    Based on the tone and content of the comments it appeared useful to more carefully analyze the responses to the four posts: โ€œFundamental Transformationโ€ (21 September 2008), โ€œToward a Sustainable Trajectoryโ€ (29 September 2008), โ€œObstacles on the Path to a Sustainable Trajectoryโ€ (3 October 2008), and โ€œWorth Noting Againโ€ (3 October 2008).

    For reasons noted previously on this Blog, EMR does not read all the comments so did not have a full grasp of how far comments had deteriorated. A comment by comment analysis found there was no basis for many of the attacks and no indication that most commentors had tried to understand or even read the material posted and cited.

    The majority โ€“ but not all โ€“ of the comments had the sole intent on discounting, discrediting and belittling. They included inaccurate summaries of web searches, links to sparky and irrelevant material and gratuitous diagnosis of psychiatric disorders.

    A NEW APPROACH

    SYNERGY is in the final stages of editing TRILO-G for publication. At this point there is a need for short sections and supplemental text to tie current events to the larger context โ€“ the exploration of the economic, social and physical ramifications of functional and dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

    After a review of the comments following the four posts noted above it was determined that it would speed up the pre-publication editing process if unedited first drafts of TRILO-G material was posted on the blog.

    The trial posts included โ€œIt is Elementary,โ€ (10 October 2008), โ€œThe Role of the Media,โ€ (11 October 2008), โ€œSwift Boating the Mortgage Crisis,โ€ (12 October 2008) and โ€œThe Bottom Line,โ€ 13 October 2008). Other drafts material has also been posted.

    Why would someone post these drafts?

    This is the free market at work. Posting these drafts is the cheapest and fastest way to sniff out passages and topics that could become targets of intentional misrepresentations and distortions.

    TRILO-G is being published with staff support and half a dozen colleagues who read and comment on the material in draft form. None of these reviewers can identify sentences and paragraphs that need armoring against unfounded criticism as fast as Bacons Rebellion commentors.

    Posting the draft material is far more efficient than paying additional staff or hiring focus group managers to help sniff out material that is subject to unfounded attack. Bacons Rebellion commentors possess a well honed ability to identify statements that can be maliciously misinterpreted.

    The results of the experiment have been spectacular! Thank you.

    The statements that have been shown to be vulnerable to intentional misinterpretations and distortions have been and will revised / restated before the Beta draft appears. The content of the four posts noted above will become part of Chapter 29, in a section titled โ€œIt Is the Settlement Pattern, Stupid.โ€ Other post will become parts of chapters throughout the text.

    THE LARGER QUESTIONS

    Having turned lemons to lemonade several larger questions remain. These questions are important if one is to develop an educational program to help citizens understand human settlement patterns and obtaining a sustainable trajectory for society.

    What is the motivation for these attacks?

    It this a problem with this Blog, with Blogging in general or with all media?

    First, how can one be sure that many are intentional misinterpretations and distortions and not just statements of uniformed or misinformed personal opinion? A careful reading suggests that a few do not bother to address the subject of the post and almost no one addresses the core idea. Commentors most often pick a phrase or sentence and then attack. They appear to be sure anything EMR presents is wrong so any attack is justified.

    EMR knows from direct feedback that many readers do understand but that is not what comes across in th comments. Some who understand say they do not want to be subject to slings and arrows of the flamers.

    It is clear that Flamers desire a forum. There will always be 20 percent who claim the Earth is flat and they find a place to express their views in Blog comments.

    In a larger context this “vocal minority” may be a root cause the He Said / She Said โ€œjournalismโ€ of MainStream Media profiled in THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    (Favorite quote of the weekend: โ€œThe publicโ€™s frankly gotten frustrated with the conventional of objectivity, the idea that you (journalists) have to present both side of the story, even if one side is completely bogus.โ€ In WaPo Magazine โ€œOnion Nation.โ€)

    In response to the heap of negative comments there are a number of other observations that will be posted from time to time.

    In the meantime, here is an example of a brief section of draft material that has been added to Chapter 3:

    ………………

    STRAWPERSONS โ€“ RED HERRING EMPLOYED IN DEFENSE OF MYTHS

    Beyond the three well articulated diversions noted above there is an avalanche of strawpersons; Red herring tossed up to divert attention from Myths.

    One favorite from the realm of blogging is โ€œThe Pregnant Mother of Twoโ€ championed by Blogger Bob. This strawperson was put forth to justify Autonomobile dominated settlement patterns that would facilitate The Pregnant Mother of Two driving to a supermarket in a Large, Private Vehicle. If anything impedes the use of Large, Private Vehicles it would be a gross affront to civilized society in the view of Blogger Bob because it would make life miserable for The Pregnant Mother of Two.

    Shall we consider the real world?

    A far smaller percentage of citizens are pregnant at any given time than the percentage who are always isolated by near exclusive dependence on the autonomobile for Access and Mobility.

    This reality becomes even more critical as the population ages. Even more important, the number who are isolated by Autocentric settlement patterns rises dramatically as the cost of Autonomobility rises.

    Even the most rudimentary calculation of alternative settlement pattern costs demonstrate that it would be far cheaper a build a special environment for pregnant women to shop for necessities than to create millions of acres of dysfunctional settlement patterns.

    One could design a Community-serving hyper*mart with isles wide enough to drive to car-window-accessible shelves. The subsidy to make this facility available to certified pregnant women would be paid for by the vast savings due to functional settlement patterns in the rest of the Community. The general public could shop in the Pregnant Woman Center if they paid the full cost. This would work just like the justification for HOT lanes. One can just imagine the opportunities for public private partnerships…

    But wait, the Pregnant Mothers of Two can now shop by phone and have the goods delivered. And what is the responsibility to support the Household of the person who got her pregnant? Oh, right, he is so busy overcoming dysfunctional settlement patterns he has no time to help out.

    The questions are endless but irrelevant when one understands that it would
    be far more effective and far more efficient to evolve functional settlement patterns Community-wide.

    A functional environment would be better for all women โ€“ pregnant or not โ€“ and for all small children โ€“ with or without a pregnant mother. The bottom line it would be better for everyone. This better alternative of functional human settlement patterns is explored in the โ€œsocial impact chaptersโ€ (8 and 9) of The Shape of the Future and specifically in the discussion of โ€œIt takes a Villageโ€ in Chapter 9, Box 3. Also see โ€œA Yard Where Johnny Can Run and Play,โ€ 1 December 2003.

    If Blogger Bob would bother to run the numbers, he would understand the need for functional human settlement patterns. Does he do that? No, he parades out The Pregnant Mother of Two who in his mind must be given the opportunity drive a Large, Private Vehicle to a big parking lot outside a store to get provisions for her family regardless of the cumulative consequences.

    This is typical of the strawperson tossed up to obfuscate attempts to eliminate settlement pattern Myths.

    ……………

    By the way, if you did not pass the Monday Morning Test you may not understand.

    More responses in due course.

    EMR


  • MONDAY MORNING TEST

    Google Map search for Mountain House, California and Waterloo, Iowa (Tks to Larry Gross for a great example)

    Background: Mountain House is the new poster child of Wrong House, Wrong Location and underwater mortgages (90% or 95% depending on source.) Both Mountain House and Waterloo are in agricultural regions that are among the most productive on the planet.

    If from these two maps do not make:

    Clear Edge
    Critical Mass
    Balanced Community
    New Urban Region
    Mobility and Access Crisis
    Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis
    Helter Skelter Crisis
    Sustainable human settlement patterns

    very clear to you, please do not vote or invest until you have overcome Geographic Illiteracy.

    Until a majority of US of A citizens can understand these eight concepts, political leaders will have no choice but to promise economic growth instead of sustainable trajectory for society.

    EMR


  • Let the Sun Shine In!

    Virginia state government has taken another big step towards transparency thanks to the publication today of the Virginia Public Access Project’s redesigned website. VPAP provides a deeper, richer database of campaign contributions and lobbying activity, and it’s searchable in more ways than ever.

    Click on the profile for Attorney General Bob McDonnell, candidate for governor, and you have a choice of tabs for viewing his data by top donors (Mark J. Kington, $28,500), top industries (real estate developers, $63,301), top vendors (Commonwealth Consultants, $56,634), and top services (staff, political consultants, $148,459).

    So, you wonder who this Mark Kington fellow is. Click on his name, and you reach his profile. He’s an Alexandria-based venture capitalist (and former business partner of U.S. Sen.-elect Mark Warner, although the database doesn’t tell you that).

    Back to the McDonnell profile, and you can click on a tab that provides all previous election results, all campaign financing committees associated with the candidate, and expenditure info as detailed as the fact that he has spent $1,671 at Sine Irish Pub (a great place to grab a beer or dinner near the state capitol, by the way).

    Legislator data goes deeper than ever before, providing easy access to the lawmaker’s financial disclosure information: salary (within broad monetary ranges), corporate affiliations, personal liabilities, investments, privately funded payments for trips, taxpayer funded payment for trips, gifts, business interests and more.

    Once upon a time, this information resided only in dusty government offices in Richmond. It was a pain to access, even if you were a journalist or lobbyist and had the time to rummage through the documents. As a practical matter, transparency was limited. Now the information is all online where any citizen can get to it 24/7. Let the sun shine in, baby, let the sun shine in.


  • When the Lights Go Out

    Electricity is something we all take forgranted — until we don’t have it. Then our society breaks down.

    That’s why we ought to pay attention to a recent study, “Lights Out in 2009,” published by the NextGen Energy Council. That organization is supported by the electric utility industry, the coal industry and other players with a vested interest in growing the electric industry, so we need to take its conclusions with a grain of salt. However, if NextGen is even close to being right, the U.S. faces massive disruptions within the next few years that will make the today’s concerns about the impact of Global Warming in 2010 seem absurdly remote.

    Here’s the argument in a nutshell: Since the early 1990s, baseload generation reserve margins have declined precipitously from 30-40 percent to 17 percent in 2007. Compounding the problem, a disparity between growth in electric demand and capacity could shrink those margins by another 10 percent by 2016. Margins of 12-15 percent are deemed the minimum required to safeguard against brownouts and blackouts.

    According to NextGen, the shortage of generating capacity will be compounded by insufficient transmission capacity — the ability to get electricity to where it’s needed. Some areas are likely to be hit sooner and harder than others. California and the Rocky Mountain states are in deep doodoo, and the northeast urban corridor, including Washington, D.C., are in mid-waist doodoo.

    Nationally, NextGen estimates that the U.S. will need to install $250 billion of new generating capacity and $80 billion of new transmission capacity by 2016 to avoid power disruptions costing the economy a guesstimated $80 billion a year. That capacity is not being built, the organization contends, because (a) virtually every project is blocked or delayed by lawsuits, and (b) state regulatory agencies are imposing Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which would make electric supplies dependent upon variable wind- and solar-powered generating capacity and aggravating the challenge of getting electricity where you need it when you need it.

    A hallmark of the Kaine administration has been its attention to the impact of Global Warming upon Virginia’s economy and ecosystems. That’s a worthy study. We need to think long term, and we need to adopt a holistic framework for approaching public policy that gives proper weight to the environment. However, while attention of our policy makers is fixated on the end of the century, we are paying scant attention to problems of far greater magnitude that could be only three or four years away.

    Here’s a prediction: If brownouts and blackouts start devastating Virginia’s economy, people will be a whole lot more focused on that problem — by a factor of 100 — than hypothetical concerns of what might happen if temperatures and sea levels rise nine decades from now. Global Warming alarmists and environmentalists generally will be discredited. The public will demand immediate solutions, even if those solutions are expensive, short-sighted and environmentally destructive. The public will throw money at Big Grid remedies that provide a quick fix, even if they perpetuate the energy status quo instead of creating the distributed grid we need for a sustainable future.

    Virginia’s public policy makers, including its environmental leaders, need to get out front of these problems now — not when the blackouts hit.
    (Image cutline: April 2008 protest in Pakistan prompted by persistent blackouts.)

  • BREAKTHROUGH!

    WaPo has columnists who often see the world as it is: Warren Brown in one. Another is Steven Pearlstein who appears in the Business section. Today โ€“ 14 November โ€“ Pearlstein tosses a touchdown pass in overtime with โ€œToward a new International Capitalism.โ€

    For anyone interested in the 20 nation-state โ€œsummitโ€ about to launch in the Federal District or the future of Virginiaโ€™s economy needs to understand Pearlsteinโ€™s perspective.

    For EMR the most important thought is buried in the next to last paragraph:

    โ€œWhile product and labor markets work remarkably well when they are left open and lightly-regulated, experience has now demonstrate that a different approach needs to be taken toward financial markets, which suffer from imperfect information, and abundance of moral hazard and a tendency toward herd behavior and speculative excess.โ€

    Wait a minute!

    While those comments are on target with respect to โ€œfinancialโ€ markets what about land markets, built environment markets and infrastructure markets? Taken together these three can be called โ€œthe settlement pattern marketโ€ because they shape human settlement patterns.

    No one with hands on experience in these markets could claim they do not โ€œsuffer from imperfect information, and abundance of moral hazard and a tendency toward herd behavior and speculative excess.โ€

    Is the real estate market just a side light? Is it not the mortgage sector of this market that is driving the Global financial meltdown?

    What about Autonomobiles? Are they just โ€œproductsโ€ or are they right behind โ€œWrong Size House in Wrong Locationโ€ as a driver of settlement pattern dysfunction?

    What a huge blind spot Pearlstein has exposed! We explore this blind spot that is common among economist in The Shape of the Future.

    Pearlstein provides a useful context with which come to understand the importance and topography of the complex market that most directly impacts human settlement patterns.

    At the federal, state and municipal levels Agencies have done an terrible job of managing the settlement pattern market. See โ€œThe Role of Municipal Planning in the Creation of Dysfunctional Human Settlement Patterns,โ€ 23 January 2002.

    Housing and Autonomobiles have been subsidized by Agencies to jump start the economy with every recession since the Great Depression. And every time the settlement pattern has become more dysfunctional as documented by the Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis.

    Why not evolve intelligent management of four markets: Labor, Goods and Services, Finance and Settlement Pattern? That will be important at the Global and continental scales but even more important at the Regional scale. The nation-state has a role to play but it is the Region where the rubber needs to meet the road. That has been the focus in the EU.

    The folks governance practitioners that Jim Bacon calls Euro Weenies have been reluctant to harp on the dysfunctional settlement patterns in the US of A because the more sustainable patterns and densities of land use give the Euroโ€™s a competitive advantage.

    Perhaps in the context that Pearlstein outlines they will speak up over the weekend.

    EMR


  • Congestion Tax + Gas Tax + National Sales Tax

    Prices send signals and taxes can influence behavior. So what are we to make of a proposal like this?

    …the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) last month submitted a detailed $544 billion transportation re-authorization proposal designed to encourage the new administration to shore-up the domestic economy with heavy spending on infrastructure projects.

    The new programs would be paid for with massive new tax hikes, including a per-mile driving tax that would begin with โ€œproof of conceptโ€ trials as early as 2010. The tax would initially be one cent per mile to generate an estimated $32.4b a year. An extra one cent per gallon in the federal gasoline tax would generate another $1.8b, and a national sales tax on cars of one percent would generate $7.6b.

    Now that’s real money. But let’s stop for a moment and ask: if such an idea, in whole or in pieces, is adopted by the new administration, what would its effect be upon entities like VDOT?

    I suppose, considering that the idea has been floated by the association representing road builders like VDOT, that they have taken into account the distortions such national taxes might impose on their local funding mechanisms. At least one would hope so.


  • WRONG SIZE HOUSE, WRONG LOCATION

    On 31 October CNNMoney.com reported that First American CoreLogic had found 7.5-million home mortgages already โ€œunderwaterโ€ and another 2.1-million that were on the brink. The International Herald Tribune story cited in EMRโ€™s post โ€œWaPo and IHT Housing and Mortgage Coverage,โ€ 29 October on this Blog pegged the potential for underwater mortgages by 2010 at 19-million.

    The CoreLogic report provides underwater numbers by state:

    An astounding 49.8% of all mortgages in Nevada are underwater โ€“ talk about gambling…

    An equally astounding 4.1 million underwater mortgages are in the top five states. These states include Florida and California, two jurisdictions that are often mentioned as leaders in the propagation of dysfunctional settlement patterns at Regional scale.

    The two states with the lowest percentage of underwater mortgages were New York and Hawaii.

    In New York State (4.4% of mortgages underwater) one factor may reflect Rockefeller administration concern for settlement patterns forty years ago โ€“ we did not call it that at the time but that is what was a primary concern as it had been in 1926. Modest rates of Regional growth over the past 40 years in most New Urban Regions that fall all or part with in New York State also helps. Hyper growth yields hyper dysfunction. (Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania which also have territory in the New York New Urban Region are also in the bottom 10 of underwater mortgages). Another factor is aggressive pursuit of mortgage, insurance and other venues for Enterprise fraud by New York State.

    In the number two state, Hawaii (5.6% of mortgages underwater), the settlement patterns are nearly as useful as those of Western Europe for demonstrating the principles of intelligent settlement patterns. This is in spite of real estate churn and flux due to Asian investing. (If they could just get a robust shared-vehicle system up and running in the Oahu New Urban Region…)

    EMR uses the terminology โ€œWrong Size House, Wrong Locationโ€ as shorthand for the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the root cause of the mortgage meltdown. So far it has been โ€˜Wrong Locationโ€™ more than โ€˜Wrong Size Houseโ€™ that has shown up in the foreclosure data.

    The reason appears to be that a reluctance on the part of mortgagors to foreclose on Big houses in poor locations. The reason may be that in the current market they can not be resold. There are buyers for less expensive dwellings. Frequently the notice of foreclosure sale is followed by a notice of a resale for about the same price โ€“ some even higher than the foreclosure price.

    That fact indicates special impacts on Households with low Institutional Capacity. Foreclosures of cheap houses in poor locations appear to have an especially big impact on minority homeowners. In the Subregional press, Hispanic surnames are much more frequent in foreclosure notices than in the population in general. Antidotal evidence suggests flight from the inhospitable environment created by Prince William County resulted in imprudent debts.

    Prince Williamโ€™s target may have started out to be โ€˜illegalsโ€™ but the impact appears not to be confined to illegals by any stretch.

    Of the 25 counties with the highest rates of increase in Hispanics from 2000 to 2007 in the entire US of A six are in the Virginia portion of the National Capital Subregion. Three are adjacent to Prince William County and two others are not far away.

    EMR has stated that those components of urban settlement where SYNERGY has identified high percentages of foreclosure are orphan subdivisions in dysfunctional locations vis a vis Jobs / Services / Amenity.

    The pictures used to illustrate MainStream Media coverage of the mortgage meltdown look like poster children for settlement pattern dysfunction but that is not a statistically valid guide.

    State-wide and municipal / Planning District data can misleadingly mask what is happening in the organic components of a New Urban Region.

    Here is an exercise for those who have any doubt about the Wrong Location part of the Wrong Size House / Wrong Location paradigm:

    Locate Cluster-scale, Neighborhood-scale and Village-scale urban agglomerations with high percentages of foreclosures. Then determine, based on Google Maps or other resources, if these places are in components of urban settlement that have any chance of becoming contributors to the evolution of Balanced Communities.

    EMR


  • Henrico Nixes Regional Transportation Boondoggle

    Henrico County has spurned one of the worst public policy ideas in Richmond history: creation of a regional transportation authority to fund regional transportation improvements. Not entirely for the right reasons, mind you. But I’ll take a victory any way I can get it: Without Henrico, a regional authority would be rump organization that could accomplish little and do little harm.

    As proposed, the Central Virginia Transportation Authority would provide a way to raise more than $108 million annually for transportation road projects through the collection of new and increased taxes and fees, reports the Times-Dispatch. Melodi Martin quotes Henrico County Manager Virgil R. Hazelett as saying that Henrico’s position came down to two things — that the state should remain responsible for its transportation system and that now isn’t the time to increase taxes for residents.

    Poor logic on both counts. Metropolitan regions should take a regional approach to transportation planning and funding, rather than gaming the system politically to get other regions to pay for their improvements. As for the time not being right to raise taxes, the time is never right.

    Here’s the real problem with the transportation authority: To be effective, a regional transportation authority needs to synchronize transportation improvements with land use policies. If a regional authority makes transportation investment decisions in a land-use vacuum, it won’t do any better job than the state does. But there is no mechanism in the proposal — at least, not as described in the press accounts — for coordinating transportation and land use planning, much less for the more esoteric idea of creating balanced and contiguous communities inside a clear edge.

    Furthermore, there appears to be no mechanism to ensure that users pay for the improvements they demand. As this proposal appears to be structured (and I confess that I have not seen a copy of it), the transportation authority would simply raise taxes on those too politically impotent to resist, perpetuate dysfunctional human settlement patterns (which are worse, believe it or not, than sprawling Northern Virginia or Hampton Roads) and further undermine Richmond’s regional competitiveness.


  • Rustbelt Richmond

    Earlier, I forecast a dire future for Hampton Roads. Now it’s time to issue a jeremiad about Richmond. The recession is battering the economy severely. When the wind and rain dies down, the corporate landscape will look very different than it does today.

    LandAmerica, a Fortune 500 company that provides real estate-related financial services, is being acquired by a rival. Some observers expect the entire headquarters operation to pack up and leave for Jacksonville.

    Electronics retailer Circuit City is on its death bed, shedding thousands of employees nationally and hundreds in the corporate headquarters. Bankruptcy appears all but inevitable.

    Packaging company Chesapeake Corp., last time I checked, was on the verge of defaulting on its debt. The stock is trading for less than $1 per share.

    Menswear retailer S&K Famous Brands is struggling to survive, with its stock trading barely above $1 per share. The most valuable asset it possesses may be the land where the company located its corporate headquarters years ago, at the junction of Interstate 64 and Broad Street.

    CarMax and Media General are hurting big time, although their survival does not seem to be in question…. for the moment.

    Pittston just spun off a major subsidiary; the headquarters will be located in Texas. Earlier this year, specialty chemical manufacturer Albemarle Corp. relocated its corporate headquarters to Baton Rouge. A year ago, Wachovia Securities decamped for St. Louis.

    Change is inevitable. Along with capitalism comes creative destruction. The old makes way for the new. But where is the new? Where are Richmond’s up-and-coming growth companies — the “gazelles” that create most of the economy’s jobs and economic growth? I can’t think of many. The roster of businesses in the “Companies to Watch” shows that there are signs of entrepreneurial life, but Richmond scores low in national rankings of fast-growth companies like the Inc. 500.

    Our community has done a poor job of cultivating the growth of home-grown, fast-growth companies. The Virginia Bioechnology Research Park may have reached a level of maturity that it can begin contributing to the regional economy in a significant way, and Virginia Commonwealth University has potential, but the overall outlook is grim.

    It’s 8:07 a.m. and I’m already reaching for the bottle of bourbon.


  • DEGREES OF SEPARATION

    In response to several Emails requesting clarification, EMR sets the record straight:

    There are fewer degrees of separation between EMR and the President-Elect Barack Obama than with any occupant of the White House since Jimmy Carter. In this case it is not understanding Carters time in public office โ€“ especailly as Governor of Georgia โ€“ but the context in which Obama grew up.

    Sen. Obama graduated from Punahou School. It was two graduates of Punahou (Class of โ€˜59) while attending the University of Montana who convinced EMR he should consider going to the University of Hawaii.

    EMR was studying philosophy, mathematics and architecture at U of H when Barack Obama Sr. met his future wife there. Hawaii in the 1960 was not a comfortable place for Africans or African Americans. It was in some contexts a more tolerant place for children of mixed heritage but not for inter-racial marriages, especially involving Africans or African Americans.

    In Hawaii published in 1959 , James Michener had glorified the racial equanimity of Hawaii. In the Fall of 1960 EMR met Michener at a small party and observed that EMR had found extreme racial profiling and tension as a student, a construction worker, bar tender and as a consumer in the Aloha state.

    It was a small party and Michener seemed to take this input into serious consideration. As we all know, Michener who had moved his permanent home to Hawaii, later repudiated the cosmopolitan โ€œgolden manโ€ idea because of the treatment his Asian American wife recieved. He moved to the Phildelphia New Urban Region.

    The relevance of this? Growing up in Hawaii gave Barack Obama the perspecitve, social skills and mental toughness that could not have been obtained growing up in the oft cited crucibles of the civil rights movement. This background prepared him for the path he has taken and will serve him well in the future.

    Our time in Hawaii included working as the house and yard man (not โ€œboy,โ€ please) for a very prominent member of the medical profession (Punahou Class of 1927) and forming friendships with a range of individuals. An inquiry or two would yield a single degree of separation.

    The more important thing is that after living in Georgia, North Carolina, Maryland and Virginia EMR can still say it was in Hawaii where Barack Obama grew up that race and color were the most important economic and social parameters. (Living in Mass. Mont and Calif only provide perspective :>)

    By the way, the Hawaiian Islands provide incredible lessons on human settlement pattern too โ€“ if you know where to look and what you are looking at.

    Obama was the best qualified person running for president in 2008. We hope that 100 years from now he is considered the best President the US of A has ever had. Given the magnitude of the problems he faces, he has that opportunity.

    But the HYPE is not going to help. Hype, frenzy and in-your-face celebration as well as “we will beat the crap out of those that are aganist us next time” declartions attracts nut cases like the one who shot the President who was elected in the year Barack Obama Sr. met his future wife.

    Let us hope the Agency employees hired to protect the President are better qualified than those hired to protect citizens of the Gulf Coast โ€“ โ€œHeck of a job Brownie.โ€ See โ€œKatrina Yet Againโ€ 8 September 2008.

    The HYPE also attracts readers and viewers and sells advertising. It does not make the job of achieving a sustainable trajectory for civilization any easier.

    How hard will that job be? Check the Business section of todayโ€™s WaPo โ€“ โ€œThe New President and the Economyโ€ or yesterdays and today’s GVI (aka, the Dow Jones Gambling Venue Index).

    And who will be helping him? See the bottom of the page the Business section. Obamaโ€™s inside advisors will include Jason Furman who says Wal*Mart is โ€œa progressive success story.โ€ See โ€œLearning from Big Boxesโ€ in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.

    Hope that clarifies EMRโ€™s perspective.

    EMR


  • Barack Hussein Obama and the GOP’s Future

    Congratulations to President-elect Barack Hussein Obama for his symbolic victory. However ill gotten the gains, a black man was elected President of the United States of America. There is no racial barrier to the most powerful position in the world. Thatโ€™s good news for anyone who imagined there was such a barrier in 2008.

    It may be catharsis for some Americans who suffer from white guilt. But, it wonโ€™t satisfy Liberals who see the world in their trinity of race, class and gender(s) identity politics. It wonโ€™t be enough for the Liberal human secularists who seek socialism, multi-culturalism, national subservience to the U.N. and rule by elites โ€“ elected and appointed.

    This election was the second spanking of the Republican Party in two years. Establishment Republicans lost. Republican Conservatives have an opportunity to save the United States of America from socialism and liberalism โ€“ by leading the Republican Party from 2010 on.

    Establishment Republicans governed without courage of convictions and with remarkable incompetence. They lost accordingly. Yet, the conflict of ideas remains.

    Where the Conservative ideas were manifested, they were victorious. Traditional, Judeo-Christian โ€“ a.k.a. American โ€“ marriage of one man and one woman won โ€“ even in California. Even Obama emphasized the tax cuts promised to 95% of the people, not the class warfare tax hike. But, itโ€™s only a few election cycles until identity politics can triumph and create the irreversible slide to destroy our American Republic.

    Currently, the Nation is 40% Liberal and 40% Conservative (Virginia used to be 35:45 but that is changing fast). The 20% in the middle vote the bread and butter or war and peace issues of the day. That break down by ideas translates into different and rapidly changing demographics. When Whites become an absolute minority by 2042, if the politics of identity keep their currency, the combination of former minorities will always win. Even though a majority of Blacks, Hispanics, Asians and Africans hold Conservative ideas. Ideas lose to identity and character to color and language if the Democrats win many more elections.

    If the Democrats pass an amnesty bill to give the right to vote to 20 million illegal aliens โ€“ and more that follow โ€“ then the fundamental shift in America happens much sooner. It could happen as soon as 2012 in the key swing states โ€“ Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. There will be no return โ€“ unless there is some watershed event of war โ€“ international, civil or cultural โ€“ faith or economic collapse to bring a unity of ideas held by individuals over group identity. Our American Republic will go the way of all former Republics to end in ruins.

    So, the time is now for Republican Conservatives and Libertarians to use the Republican Party to lead all Americans a better future. Now. America has a Munificent Destiny โ€“ if we choose to create it. We have a purpose that will carry us through another century of freedom, opportunity, prosperity and as much peace as possible. The rule of law, individual rights and responsibilities, economic freedom and choices, charity and investment at home and abroad โ€“ from the human heart of families and communities can triumph.

    Conservative ideas of freedom, family, faith, energy and economics are superior to the politics of race, class and gender(s) โ€“ and all as subjects to international socialism. But, we have a short window to protect, preserve and forward America as an ascending idea. If future American Presidents are Conservative โ€“ without any regard to race or ethnicity โ€“ America wins. In 2000 I voted in the primary for a much better qualified Black candidate for President โ€“ Alan Keyes. I look forward to voting for the better man and best ideas again.

    This weekend national Conservative leaders will meet in Virginia to chart a course forward. I, too, will meet in Virginia with people – peasants not pachyderms – to try to chart a course for Virginia. We will see what โ€˜The Virginia Wayโ€™ can do in the elections of 2010 for federal office and across our Commonwealth in 2011.


  • Poisson Fishes for a Mileage Tax

    Del. David Poisson, D-Loudoun, has introduced legislation that would establish a joint subcommittee “to study the desirability and feasibility of replacing the state motor fuel tax with a mileage-based fee predicated on vehicle-miles traveled in Virginia.”

    Needless to say, I am excited to hear this news, as I have been advocating a mileage-based tax for a few years now. For the benefit of newbies to this blog, the arguments for such a tax can be recapitulated as follows:

    • The gasoline gax is living on borrowed time. Not only is the tax not indexed for inflation, the automobile industry is on the verge of introducing high miles-per-gallon vehicles that consume less gas and yield less tax revenue — indeed, the industry is on the verge of introducing electric vehicles that consume little or no gasoline at all. It’s only a matter of years before the gasoline tax fails to generate enough revenue to maintain existing roads, much less build new ones.
    • A mileage tax is the ultimate “user pays” revenue source. The more you drive and the more wear and tear you put on the roads, the more you should pay to maintain them. There is no reasonable argument against this principle. There are only objections to the practicality of implementing the principle. As indicated in an article by the Loudoun Times-Mirror, the joint subcommittee would examine whether a GPS system or a pay-at-the-pump system would work better.
    • A mileage tax fairly allocates location-variable costs. It is a core dictum of Bacon’s Rebellion that economic and environmental sustainability requires a rational allocation of location-variable costs. Translated into plain English, that means, people need to pay for the full costs they incur from their choices of where to live and work. A rational transportation funding system is an important step on the path to more balanced and functional human settlement patterns.

    The tax should be adjusted for the weight of the vehicle (bigger vehicles cause more wear and tear) and the level of pollutants it emits. To my way of thinking, the tax also should be set at a level that would pay for all road/highway maintenance costs, including the cost of working down the maintenance backlog of bridges and other structures in disrepair. Indeed, it might increase the political appeal of the tax to call it a “road maintenance tax.” No one has mounted a serious argument against properly maintaining the infrastructure we ‘ve already invested in.

    A mileage/maintenance tax should not be used to pay for new construction. There is no necessary correlation between the number of miles someone drives and the demand he/she creates for new construction projects. The drivers and property owners who create the demand for new roads, bridges and highways are the ones who should pay for them — either directly, through tolls, or indirectly through higher property taxes in Community Development Authority districts, higher house prices via impact fees or some other mechanism.

    I applaud Poisson for introducing the idea of a mileage tax into the public discourse. Implementing the tax will raise prickly issues, as Bacon’s Rebellion bloggers have explored in some depth. Virginia policy makers need to start working their way through those issues now before gasoline tax revenues reach a melt-down stage.


  • ANTIPARTISAN – AN ADDITION TO THE VOCABULARY OF SUSTAINABLILITY

    Two years ago today, Jim Bacon wrote a column titled โ€œElections, Shmelections. Nothing has changed.โ€

    That column deserves to be reread with care. From the perspective of the long term trajectory of civilization, NOTHING WAS CHANGED by yesterdayโ€™s election except the level of hype.

    Barack Obama could be the best president the US of A has ever had and that would not change the current trajectory on contemporary society.

    The future is not about what President Elect Obama โ€“ or any other President โ€“ can or will do. The future is about what citizens and their Organizations have already done, individually and collectively, and will do, especially collectively and primarily at the New Urban Region scale.

    This is true whether or not Senator Obama is able to implement his agenda. Check out the Obama platform on taxes and spending, housing stimulus and the bailout, retirement security, trade, foreign policy, access to health care, offshore drilling, climate change, immigration, education and the culture war issues. They are great pre-1973 ideas but will they really result in โ€œchangeโ€ much less yield Fundamental Transformation to a sustainable trajectory?

    To be fair with the Elephant Clan promising pre-1973 โ€œgrowth and prosperityโ€ had the Donkey Clan been more realistic, they would have been hammered by the voters. That is because the vast majority who went to the polls believe in Big Rock Candy Mountain.

    And why do they believe in Big Rock Candy Mountain? That is what both Clans have been promising for 35 years.

    In neither Clanโ€™s platform were there substantive proposals for Fundamental Transformation in governance structure to reflect economic, social and physical reality. There was not even the call for a Balance of individual rights with community responsibilities that was in both the Bush I and Clinton platforms of 1992.

    There were no proposals that would result in a Fundamental Transformation in human settlement pattern.

    Both Fundamental Transformations are necessary to preserve democracy with a market economy.

    An โ€˜historicโ€™ election? The only historic aspect is that finally citizens MAY have put aside prejudices that were contrary to the principles upon which the US of A was founded 233 years ago โ€“ slavery and racism.

    On 5 November citizens and their Organizations are faced with the same human settlement pattern they had on 3 November โ€“ the Helter Skelter Crisis. That crisis has resulted in:

    The Mobility and Access Crisis, and

    The Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis

    The later of which has triggered a Global financial meltdown.

    Reversing the Helter Skelter Crisis is the only path to shrinking the ecological footprint of humans, reducing energy consumption and dependence on foreign petroleum as well as enhancing personal and food security along with other key elements of a sustainable trajectory for civilization.

    Although they make important observations, there is something profoundly frustrating about the posts โ€œA Few Pre-Election Thoughts,โ€ (3 Nov) and โ€œVa, Welcome to the Real World,โ€ (5 Nov) by Peter Galuszka and โ€œDemocracy in Action,โ€ (4 Nov) Jim Bacon. These posts imply that who gets elected and which party they represent (note: โ€œwhich PARTY they represent) makes a difference. Political party monopoly is bad, the current political party duopoly is worse.

    In the ESTATES MATRIX we document why MainStream Media has abandoned the Fourth Estate. Watching the election coverage on the โ€˜majorโ€™ networks and cable channels last night and then reading the election coverage in todayโ€™s press makes it clear:

    MainStream Media is dependent on political party duopoly is pseudo โ€œcompetitionโ€ for revenue.

    โ€œLetโ€™s you and him fightโ€ political โ€˜coverageโ€™ is a huge contributor to MainStream Mediaโ€™s bottom line. According to WaPo the two parties spent over $375 million dollars on โ€œmedia and advertisingโ€ for the top of the ticket from June trough election day.

    Political candidate and party ads plus the โ€˜issueโ€™ ads intended to generate bail-out proceeds, defense contracts and to obscure responsibility for the Global financial meltdown (and other hot air issues) make up the majority of ad revenue. The prime drivers of dysfunctional settlement patterns โ€“ Large, Private Vehicles and Dream Homes โ€“ ad revenue is in the tank along with the advertisers.

    In a democracy there is no sustainable path to Elephant Clan recovery. That is because the Clan would have to convince 50.5 percent of the voters in key states that they are enjoying to fruits of โ€œgrowth and prosperity.โ€ That is not possible when the โ€œgrowth and prosperityโ€ they tout has been subsidized by burning thru natural capital that has been and / or is being exhausted.

    This is not just the problem with oil but with all resources from blue crabs to top soil, to potable water. The natural capital is not completely gone yet but it will be more inaccessible and much more expensive in the future. Resources will be affordable only by those at the top of the economic Ziggurat and they do not make up 1 percent of the voters, much less 50.5 percent.

    Oh yes, there is a way to lower the cost โ€“ a recession. A depression works even better. But that does not make those voters at the bottom of the Ziggurat happy.

    Culture War issues are no longer a viable refuge for the Elephant Clan. Concerning the Culture Wars the op ed โ€œLast of the Culture Warriorsโ€ by Peter Beinart in the 3 Nov 2008 WaPo is a must read.

    In a democracy with a market economy there is no sustainable path for the traditional platform of the Donkey Clan either. The only option is rabid populism because there are not enough resources to support continued Mass OverConsumption, especially with dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

    The favorite weapons of the Clan wars and also not available. Derogatory labels are not only useless โ€“ as the results from yesterdayโ€™s election show โ€“ hurling misleading epithets at the other party is ineffective and probably counter-productive. Calling someone a fascist, ultra conservative, right wingnut, center right, center, center left, liberal, ultra liberal, left wingnut, socialist, communist โ€“ and all the other labels โ€“ is meaningless.

    Scaring citizens by suggesting that the other party wants to take away their โ€˜freedomโ€™ or โ€˜taxing the poor to support the richโ€™ is will not work. Neither will using ill defined terms like โ€œlimited government,โ€ โ€œfree marketsโ€ or โ€œrule of lawโ€ when those in public office violate their responsibility to protect community interests.

    Party labels have been stretched and distorted to include at least 50.5% of those who come out to voter. (By the way, โ€œDonkey Clanโ€ and โ€œElephant Clanโ€ were not invented by EMR or Jim Bacon. EMR first heard about them from a political scientist who describes himself as a โ€œrecovering Republican.โ€ The Clan designations have a useful โ€˜tribalโ€™ ring and have been adopted into the SYNERGY Lexicon.)

    Where to from here?

    โ€œPolitics is broken.โ€ Partisan two party competition is a dead end. Bipartisan โ€˜cooperationโ€™ is worse and a nonpartisan agenda not much better. Bipartisan and nonpartisan catchalls mask the need for Fundamental Transformation. How about an Antipartisan strategy?

    Drop the superficial political spectrum labels – call them all Core Confusing Words.

    Spell out principles such as those in The Shape of the Future with respect to human settlement patterns or those dealing with managing the economy in the โ€œIT IS ELEMENTARYโ€ post of 10 October 2008 on this Blog.

    Define objectives using clear, well defined terms within a comprehensive Conceptual Framework.

    Spe
    ll out the strategy to achieve the objectives and seek broad agreement on the tactics to achieve the objectives. With respect to human settlement pattern, SYNERGY lays out a Three Step Process in HANDBOOK.

    The Antipartisan approach is to create a broad consensus based on agreement of the vast majority of stake holders with the level of decision being the level of impact.

    The biggest problem for some will be that an inclusive Antipartisan process will โ€œslow things down.โ€ Slowing things down in a society where speed has burned through natural capital and atomized society is a good thing, not a bad thing. Small is beautiful and Regional is the new Global.

    Note on Vocabulary:

    Google and Webster, Third Edition indicate that โ€œAntipartisanโ€ is a new word so we capitalized it. Antipartisan.com is an available domain name. Jim Baconโ€™s โ€œElections, Shmelections, Nothing Has Changedโ€ column drew a suggestion from Groveton concerning a new โ€œthirdโ€ party. Perhaps what is needed is an antiparty?

    EMR


  • McCain, Gilmore Win Richmond: RTD

    Fellow bloggers,
    Call me crazy, but according to Page 16 in this morning’s Richmond Times-Dispatch, John McCain beat Barack Obama 54,013 to 14,548. Jim Gimore got 54,013 to Mark Warner’s 14,548.

    Now how can that be? I thought Richmond would go blue. And each set of Republican victors got exactly the same votes — ditto Democrat losers.

    Earth to Tom Silvestri. What happened to your copy desk? Need any help? Could this be even more evidence that the Times-Dispatch is truly going downhill under your management?

    Peter Galuszka