Poisson Fishes for a Mileage Tax

Del. David Poisson, D-Loudoun, has introduced legislation that would establish a joint subcommittee “to study the desirability and feasibility of replacing the state motor fuel tax with a mileage-based fee predicated on vehicle-miles traveled in Virginia.”

Needless to say, I am excited to hear this news, as I have been advocating a mileage-based tax for a few years now. For the benefit of newbies to this blog, the arguments for such a tax can be recapitulated as follows:

  • The gasoline gax is living on borrowed time. Not only is the tax not indexed for inflation, the automobile industry is on the verge of introducing high miles-per-gallon vehicles that consume less gas and yield less tax revenue — indeed, the industry is on the verge of introducing electric vehicles that consume little or no gasoline at all. It’s only a matter of years before the gasoline tax fails to generate enough revenue to maintain existing roads, much less build new ones.
  • A mileage tax is the ultimate “user pays” revenue source. The more you drive and the more wear and tear you put on the roads, the more you should pay to maintain them. There is no reasonable argument against this principle. There are only objections to the practicality of implementing the principle. As indicated in an article by the Loudoun Times-Mirror, the joint subcommittee would examine whether a GPS system or a pay-at-the-pump system would work better.
  • A mileage tax fairly allocates location-variable costs. It is a core dictum of Bacon’s Rebellion that economic and environmental sustainability requires a rational allocation of location-variable costs. Translated into plain English, that means, people need to pay for the full costs they incur from their choices of where to live and work. A rational transportation funding system is an important step on the path to more balanced and functional human settlement patterns.

The tax should be adjusted for the weight of the vehicle (bigger vehicles cause more wear and tear) and the level of pollutants it emits. To my way of thinking, the tax also should be set at a level that would pay for all road/highway maintenance costs, including the cost of working down the maintenance backlog of bridges and other structures in disrepair. Indeed, it might increase the political appeal of the tax to call it a “road maintenance tax.” No one has mounted a serious argument against properly maintaining the infrastructure we ‘ve already invested in.

A mileage/maintenance tax should not be used to pay for new construction. There is no necessary correlation between the number of miles someone drives and the demand he/she creates for new construction projects. The drivers and property owners who create the demand for new roads, bridges and highways are the ones who should pay for them — either directly, through tolls, or indirectly through higher property taxes in Community Development Authority districts, higher house prices via impact fees or some other mechanism.

I applaud Poisson for introducing the idea of a mileage tax into the public discourse. Implementing the tax will raise prickly issues, as Bacon’s Rebellion bloggers have explored in some depth. Virginia policy makers need to start working their way through those issues now before gasoline tax revenues reach a melt-down stage.


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40 responses to “Poisson Fishes for a Mileage Tax”

  1. yes.. but it would not take much to take care of the funding for maintenance issue…

    I strongly suspect that putting an auto-inflation index would take care of maintenance funding issues for a very long time.

    So .. what is the mileage tax REALLY trying to accomplish?

  2. Anonymous Avatar

    “A mileage tax is the ultimate “user pays” revenue source. “

    No it isn’t, and it is environmentally backward. It does NOTHING that the gas tax canot do if set at the same equivalent rate, and it does NOTHING to discourage overweight and over-powered vehicles.

    This idea is as dumb as toast, and e should just give it up.

  3. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “Translated into plain English, that means, people need to pay for the full costs they incur from their choices of where to live and work.”

    Nonsense.

    Home to work travel only accounts for 20% of travel. If this is a goal of any proposed mileage tax then 80% of the reason for it is misdirected.

    RH

  4. we have two questions IMHO.

    ASSUMING that we ARE talking ONLY about maintenance costs:

    1. – are there truly disproportionate impacts such as weight (and others?)

    2. – if the answer is yes – what would be the various methods for allocating costs and of the options available – which would be the most cost-effective?

    If 1 is deemed correct – then I don’t see any way to do 2. without knowing the type/weight of vehicle and miles traveled (which means the gas tax as currently collected will not be able to accomplish – as is).

  5. Anonymous Avatar

    Bacon is correct Anon

    If you are driving a Prius you are using the roads and wearing them down the same as someone who is driving a sports car.

    Bacon is also right on the money to seperate maintanence issues and new construction. (I might add its pretty conveneient that he lives in Richmond :-p)

    “A mileage/maintenance tax should not be used to pay for new construction. There is no necessary correlation between the number of miles someone drives and the demand he/she creates for new construction projects. The drivers and property owners who create the demand for new roads, bridges and highways are the ones who should pay for them — either directly, through tolls, or indirectly through higher property taxes in Community Development Authority districts, higher house prices via impact fees or some other mechanism.”

    The enviromental issue is a legitimate issue and should be debated. Gas guzzler taxes and carbon offsets are two ways to address this issue.

    However, trying to combine transportation maintanence and the enviroment at the same time is a messy situation. Thats one of the reasons why metro is such a sore issue around here. To fix this Metro riders should pay full costs but then get carbon offsets for benefiting the environment. This will never happen due to various lobbying intersts and the complications of calculating the actual costs of metro and carbon offset.

    NMM

  6. Groveton Avatar

    Jim Bacon:

    Oh … you were so close to being right. But then you had to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by writing:

    “A mileage/maintenance tax should not be used to pay for new construction. There is no necessary correlation between the number of miles someone drives and the demand he/she creates for new construction projects.”.

    You profess to love free enterprise. How does business relate the cost of productive capacity to the cost of using that capacity? Depreciation! It is a cost built (in one way or another) into the cost of what is produced. Why? So the true economic cost of the product includes the inconvienient truth that making the product uses up the very asset that is used to make it. In the case the product is a mile drive and the asset is a road. Driving uses up the road. It must eventually be rebuilt – just like a factory. The cost of taht future rebuild must be included in the costs of operating teh asset. If I ignored that bit of accounting / economic sense – I’d go to jail.

    And NMM is right. Your disinterest in new road construction is very suspect. You live in a part of the state that has been coddled, pampered and unfairly benefitted from partisan politics. You don’t care about new road construction because the roads in Richmond are vast, largely empty super-highways paid for with plenty of NoVA money. Shame, shame Jim Bacon. Has none of President elect Obama’s message gotten through? Those who have been over-compensated (like Richmond) need to start giving back. It’s time to share the walth. Joe the Plumber, meet Jim the Pundit.

  7. “It’s only a matter of years before the gasoline tax fails to generate enough revenue to maintain existing roads, much less build new ones.”

    First of all, there is no evidence that this is true. It’s just random speculation used to reach a desired conclusion. Second, it assumes that the gas tax is currently used only for road construction and maintenance — which it is not. As demonstrated many times, driving taxes are siphoned off to feed mass transit boondoggles which is the real reason the “we’re not collecting enough revenue!” alarm goes off every year. Like clockwork. Third, if the tax truly doesn’t generate enough revenue, you can adjust the rate with a flip of a switch. Simple, easy, painless — but the middlemen don’t get any fat contracts out of the deal.

    “The tax should be adjusted for the weight of the vehicle (bigger vehicles cause more wear and tear) and the level of pollutants it emits.”

    So you take an already complicated scheme to approximate what the gas tax already achieves perfectly.

    With the gas tax:
    – The more you drive, the more you pay
    – The heavier your car, the more you pay
    – The more carbon dioxides you burn (i.e., fuel you use), the more you pay

    It’s really getting harder and harder to take this per mile tax idea seriously. Does anyone honestly think you need a ridiculously expensive and intrusive satellite system to approximate the same effect produced by the gas tax? Is it really worth paying 40% more in overhead just to satisfy some bizarre “human settlement pattern” obsession?

    How about you waste your money on your obsession and stop trying to take mine.

  8. well…. you don't replace roads like you do furniture or factory machinery…

    A more correct comparison would be the operation and maintenance costs of permanent infrastructure …

    we could call it MOF for maintenance and operation fund

    and then for highways we could call it the HMOF

    DANG! that's exactly what VDOT calls it – what a coincidence!

    that would be the line labeled HMOF on page 1 of this PPT

    http://www.ctb.virginia.gov/resources/Agenda_Item_4_Final_FY_09-14_Budget_Presentation_2.pdf

    now the next thing to notice is the amount the HMOF goes up every year.

    2009 = $ 1,486.3

    2010 = $ 1,515.0

    2011 = $ 1,541.7

    2012 = $ 1,576.4

    2013 = $ 1,618.8

    2014 = $ 1,627.4

    doesn't look like a whole lot of increase considering inflation.. so I'm not sure what this means but clearly it does not consume the entire 17 cent gas tax – yet.

    … except …that out of VDOT's annual 4 billion dollar budget – only about 1.5 of it is for maintenance for 57,505 miles of roadway.

    …which averages out to about 18K per mile per year

    (per Reason Study: http://www.reason.org/ps369.pdfpage 20)

    so… I guess I'd be showing some cynicism if I expressed the thought that a mileage based scheme might be a camel-nose-under-the-tent scheme to ALSO raise construction money to continue the current …failed process of distributing political pork money – rewarding those with the best political skills…in getting their share (and more) of the total overflowing pot of mileage-tax money…

    shame…for shame… I'm starting to sound like Groveton….

    Bacon.. you ought to be more vigilant with these nefarious schemes to raise taxes…

    It sure looks like just putting an inflation index on the current gas tax will do the trick.. no muss, no fuss, no new pots of money for tax & spender types.

  9. Loudoun Insider Avatar
    Loudoun Insider

    I look at this as Abuser Fees Redux. This only applies to IN-STATE users! At least the gas tax picks up a good portion of revenue from out of staters passing through or gassing up as part of their in-state commute. I think this is a horrible idea, and one that will fail miserably in the court of public opinion.

  10. Wow.

    Jimbo has jumped the shark.

    This idea is horrible. All you need to do is register your car out of state and avoid all this mess. Buy cheap Virginia gas, live in DC.

    Oh, and it is trucks that do the most damage to highways, and it is trucks that are easiest to move out of state.

    The gas tax is unfair. This is worse. Don’t get so hung up on one thing that you can’t see the solutions you are proposing are worse. The gas tax doens’t create distorted settlement patterns alone.

  11. Anonymous Avatar

    Poisson’s proposal has many warts, such as the interstate driver issue, but he should be commended, nonetheless, for thinking beyond yesterday.

    If more and more vehicles rely on fuels other than gasoline for power, how does the state ensure that all drivers pay for road maintenance? Do we surcharge electricity? Does every electricity customer pay or just owners of plug-in hybrids? And how does that work?

    Maybe the solution is to retain the gas tax; use RFID technology to record gas purchases; impose the mileage-driven tax and rebate all of the gas tax payments to Virginia drivers paying the mileage-based fees. But some clowns in the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce and the WaPo editorial staff will argue to keep both.

    We also need to capture value from new roads and transit facilities in a manner similar to the Route 28 Transportation District and not in a manner similar to the Dulles Rail Transit District.

    TMT

  12. VDOT is making some big changes as a result of 3202 – remember that “abomination” ?

    Besides being basically broke with respect to major new construction, they are downsizing and it’s quite likely than any major new infrastructure is NOT going to be funded from gas tax revenues which means someone is going to pay and more than likely it will have to be based on some kind of a user pays arrangement whether it be tolls, or CDAs or transportation districts, etc.

    The Dulles Metro kerfuffle seems.. almost unique at least in the Old Dominion; perhaps others know of other similar examples.

    But – one can see… that if more money to pay for the METRO line can be extracted from developers siting their stuff close to METRO stations – that you’ve provide a major incentive for them to pursue optimal density levels (in their view..optimal)…

    but again.. is this really any different than say.. a developer than gets wind of a new road or a new interchange and then seeks to maximize land development around it even if it degrades the utility and benefit of the new infrastructure.

    Heck.. we’ve have bypasses built to bypass other bypasses in Va .. in the same way..

    Only now is VDOT more vigilant and strict …

    so.. METRO stations and TOD are relatively new critters … though METRO could require policies similar to VDOT and then it would put a kink in developers plans to appeal to the locality for density.

    and I think the really ironic thing here is that the Smart Growth folks – the same folks who have worked hard to reverse developers co-opting of road infrastructure for Sprawl.. are… believers in the density/TOD approach… believing that if you do it – it will ultimately squeeze auto use.. much like the dense places around other METRO stations has gained some ground against autos…

    Also interesting… there is a ton of roads in the Tysons areas – apparently all done without major controversy that has really been at the root of the Tysons congestion… so a bit ironic that AFTER they have throughly “roaded” Tysons.. that now… the issue of “degradation” of LOS .. is now an issue.

    I’m sure.. quite a few homes were removed and/or seriously impacted by the building of the DTR, I-66, I-495, et al…

    why now … is it a problem?

    I’m sure my perceptions need correcting so I await TMT’s historical setting of the record.

  13. Anonymous Avatar

    “are there truly disproportionate impacts such as weight “

    Yes, absolutely. The other major impact has nothing to do with mileage traveled at all: it is weather.

    RH

  14. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “If you are driving a Prius you are using the roads and wearing them down the same as someone who is driving a sports car. “

    And the guy with the sports car has made the choice to have more power and performance, which he pays for.

    You assume the guy driving the Prius is somehow “getting a deal”, when in fact the rate should be set so the prius driver pays his fair share, and everyone else pays more, for what they choose to get.

    It is going to take the same amount of money to maintain the roads, whether we use a mileage tax or a fuel tax makes very little difference assuming it is administered fairly. But the mileage tax will be a waste of money to administer and collect.

    There is no rational reason to collect money that way, so ther must be some other motive, as Larry suggests.

    C’mon Bacon, get it out in the open and stop making bogus arguments.

    RH

  15. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “…without knowing the type/weight of vehicle and miles traveled (which means the gas tax as currently collected will not be able to accomplish …”

    Huh? that’s exactly what the fuel tax does: collects based on weight, horsepower, and mileage. What more could you possibly want, other than having the rate set correctly?

    RH

  16. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “Bacon is also right on the money to seperate maintanence issues and new construction. “

    Maybe.

    Show me how it is cost effective to collect two sets of taxes, and who has enough money to do anything like the construction needed.

    RH

  17. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “The drivers and property owners who create the demand for new roads,…”

    This is a completely false argument. It is not as if ONLY new driver and new homes create the demand.

    Someone builds a new home and an existing delivery man makes a new delivery there. Who should pay for the road?

    Bogus, Bogus, Bogus, argument and yet is sounds so reasonable.

    RH

  18. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “so… I guess I’d be showing some cynicism if I expressed the thought that a mileage based scheme might be a camel-nose-under-the-tent scheme to ALSO raise construction money to continue the current …failed process of distributing political pork money – rewarding those with the best political skills…in getting their share (and more) of the total overflowing pot of mileage-tax money…”

    And you would be right.

    How much would the mileage tax work out to when calculated in cents per gallon?

    Otherwise, you still have all the same problems.

    Go fix the problems instead of blaming them on the gas tax.

    RH

  19. Jim Bacon Avatar

    Ray, You persist in the delusion that the gasoline tax is a sustainable revenue source. I won’t convince you otherwise… now. But we’ll see what the situation looks like in five years.

  20. It’s probably sustainable for maintenance… if they index it but it won’t buy much in the way of new roads anymore.

    and ..if plug-ins actually do happen – it could crater but it’ll probably take a decade to do it.. because in any one year – only a fraction of the total gasoline-burning fleet gets replaced.

    I’ve become convinced that the hue and cry about the gas tax is really about all those guys that make a living building roads…from VDOT-types to construction companies to the developers that “need” the road for new business venues.

    It’s a large and “needy” constituency…and it’s funding for new roads is disappearing.

  21. “Ray, You persist in the delusion that the gasoline tax is a sustainable revenue source.”

    That’s probably because the data suggest the exact opposite to be true.

    Gas tax revenue in Virginia went down 1.5% in September. That’s at the peak of high gas prices with the economy in the toilet. Still, the overall transportation revenue was up overall. Up. Not down. Up.

    Your theory would predict the gas tax would be way down given the economic conditions; it is not. Your theory is wrong.

    “You’ll see what happens in five years” is not an argument.

    These are arguments:
    (1) Despite the worst possible economic conditions, the gas tax has proven to be one of the most consistent sources of revenue. This is because people need to drive to live and work; driving is not optional.

    (2) Electric car technology is little advanced in terms of range and usability from the original electric cars of the early 1900s. It ain’t happening in 5 years.

    (3) And the inescapable fact that proves the “sustainability” argument is completely bogus: You can always change the rate.

    Larry: “I’ve become convinced that the hue and cry about the gas tax is really about all those guys that make a living building roads”

    Have you ever heard a government agency say it doesn’t need any more money?

  22. Jim Bacon Avatar

    Bob, A 1.5 percent decline in gas tax revenues may not sound like a lot, but when it occurs simultaneously with a 4-5% inflation rate (even higher in the construction sector), it leaves the state road maintenance/building in a budget.

    I don’t know if you’ve been paying any attention, but VDOT has been scaling back its construction plans steadily, and, as highlighted in this blog not long ago, is preparing to make tough choices in the maintenance area.

    I agree that the gasoline tax has many virtues, including the fact that it is a rough user-pays tax, it’s easy to administer, and it collects money from out-of-state motorists. It is preferable, in my humble opinion, to the sales tax and other miscellaneous fee the state uses to fund transportation.

    You can persist in your belief that the tax is fundamentally sound, but there are ample reasons to believe otherwise. It would be prudent at least for the General Assembly to explore alternatives. That doesn’t mean they have to implement those alternatives, but they do need to work through a thicket of issues — such as privacy issues relating to the use of GPS technology — that need to be addressed if we ever have resource to those alternatives.

  23. If you look at the growth of the costs in the HMOF part of VDOT’s budget though – something is not right – because the rate of increase of maintenance costs (unless my math is wrong) appears to be far less than the inflation rate.

    There is no doubt that NEW construction has become very expensive.. but I do wonder if it is true that maintenance costs are truly rising much.

    I’m actually with Bob on this.

    The data does not support the premise.

    What has come from VDOT primarily is along the lines of “we are having to divert construction money for maintenance” .. if I remember correctly.. on the order of about 200 million a year give or take.

    Since the gas tax currently generates about 1.5 billion.. 200 million is a sizeable chunk, I agree.. but indexing fixes the problem – at least until gasoline usage actually starts going down due to the influence of more efficient cars including plug-ins kicks in.. which is more than likely not going to happen in the next 5-10 years.

    With Bob and I will depart on agreement is that I feel that new roads should all be tolled and either done as express or HOT tolls and NOT to come up with a new way to raise money (like a mileage tax) than then allows us to return to the days of slush fund financing of any/all road schemes that folks could concoct…

    Having the slush funding method of financing new roads die – is a blessing… and to resurrect it via a different funding mechanism will only cause the re-population of financial rodents lusting after the pork.

    We need a way to determine need that directly ties that “need” to the folks that want it – and those same folks willingness to pay for it.

    so… I see the mileage tax as a camel nose… at this point.

  24. Transportation revenue for the current fiscal year is up 13.9% (to September 08). That’s ahead of inflation and thanks to Kaine-Howell’s myriad tax hikes. There is no funding crisis. There is only a spending priority crisis.

    Gas tax is down just 1.5% YTD during a depression and $4 gas. As we discussed in the comments here before, the gas tax stubbornly resisted any drop in revenue for months after prices got crazy — this is where the “gas tax days are numbered” theories all fell flat.

    Let’s compare that with toll roads that have been seeing consistent 5-15% drops worldwide in daily traffic ever since gas got pricey. If -1.5% is bad with 4-5% inflation, then why on earth would you suggest moving to a less resilient form of taxation?

    “I don’t know if you’ve been paying any attention, but VDOT has been scaling back its construction plans steadily”

    I don’t know if you noticed, but Pierce Homer and Tim “Abuser Fees” Kaine have always been part of the anti-roads crowd. They don’t want new roads — except when $20,000 in illegal campaign donations from Transurban changes their mind. They want mass transit to build their political base with NOVA lefties.

    “You can persist in your belief that the tax is fundamentally sound, “

    No, I’ve demonstrated with actual tax data that it is fundamentally sound; the tax only accounts for less than a quarter of the yearly booty seized from drivers anyway. You have yet to make a single argument.

    “It would be prudent at least for the General Assembly to explore alternatives.”

    In no way would it EVER make sense to use satellite tracking to implement a taxation scheme, unless you’re the middleman who’s making the profit. It’s massively complex and wasteful. We might as well just take $200,000,000, put it in a nice big pile and burn it. Toll lanes and HOT lanes come with 22% overhead according to the inconvenient truth found in the Washington State Department of Transportation data that Larry G was so kind to discover.

    So in the year 2020 when we all have flying cars powered by electricity, we can switch to funding the air traffic control systems and runways with the sales tax — sure it’s not as nice and efficient, but it’s simple. Or we can burn a pile of money.

  25. I’m curious if anyone ever did a breakdown of how much out-of-staters pay in Virginia gas tax? At least in NOVA, I know a lot of MD and DC drivers who come here to gas up. Maybe not a huge amount — but I could easily see it as over 100K drivers between the two.

    Don’t know if the same is true with NC and WV, and in any case it is probably smaller because there are no large cities right on the border.

  26. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “(3) And the inescapable fact that proves the “sustainability” argument is completely bogus: You can always change the rate.”

    The mileage tax can easily be converted to a cents per gallon figure. Anyone want to tell what it will be?.

    RH

  27. I just did some back of the envelope calculations.

    Let’s look at 2025. Let’s assume the average MPG of cars in Virginia has increased to 60MPG. These would reflect that 90% of cars are hybrids or plug in hybrids.

    Let’s also assume a modest increase in the number of vehicles to 9 million.

    Let’s also assume a modest increase in the number of miles being driven in Virginia to 9 billion a year.

    With those numbers, we get about 200 million a year in gas tax revenue.

    Increase the gas tax to 50 cents, and you about where you are today.

    I’m not factoring sales to out of state motorists, but a 50 cents increase more than takes care of VDOT funding, even with the entire vehicle fleet getting close to 60MPG.

  28. Anonymous Avatar

    The General Assembly took a cursory look at the gasoline tax and pay-per-mile system under Senator Wagner’s SJ 385 (2007). Oregon has completed a pilot study with what I would call ‘mixed results’. Before Del. Poisson’s study is considered by committee, someone should make sure he is aware of where the GA has been on this issue. Also of note, The Netherlands recently approved a pay-per-kilometer tax to be phased in starting in 2011. Here is a link to a press realease from the ITIF, which is holding a breakfast forum on the issue:
    http://www.itif.org/index.php?id=193.

    Although the concept has merit, a pay-per-mile tax structure is entirley over complicated (see OR pilot study) and fails to target the environmental and weight variables of vehicles. Until we see a significant number of electric vehciles on the road (not captured under gas tax), there should be no action by the GA other than gas tax increases. Members of the GA are trying to run around the word ‘tax’ and in doing so will end up wasting more taxpayer money.

  29. Anonymous Avatar

    Ray, I think that I’m subsidizing both you and my wife when you drive your Priuses.

    My wife drives much more than I do, but since I still must drive a paid-for van (two teenagers), I get crappy mileage. She gets great mileage. Even with my driving less, I probably pay more for the upkeep of Virginia roads than either my wife or you.

    Why is that fair?

    TMT

  30. Anonymous Avatar

    You are welcome to think that.

    Where is the evidence?

    If I take my Prius off the road, how much will the cost of road maintenance decline?

    Probably the least important aspect of road maintenance is the mileage driven on them. Weight is a factor of several hundred times as much as mileage. So is weather.

    Anyone who thinks we are going to pay less for road maintenance by reducing driving hasn’t figured it out carefully. It is a reasonable sounding argument that is simply wrong.

    But lets, suppose you are right. Are you willing to grant a small credit to the Prius drivers for letting you breathe easer, and reducing the deamnd for gas, thereby helping keep your price down?

    If youthink the Prius is getting subsidized, you must think the gas tax is too low.

    I think the gas tax ought to be high enough that a Prius pays its own way on road maintenance. People who want the added capabilities of a van, etc., would pay extra maintenance for doing so. I know I pay a lot extra for my dump truck.

    My overall average is around 47, but it can be a lot less if I have many short trips or a lead foot. How does your wife do?

    RH

  31. re: “With those numbers, we get about 200 million a year in gas tax revenue.”

    Right now, it costs about 1.5 billion… if we apply an inflation factor to that to the year 2025.. I’d not be surprised to see that number double or even triple.

    so.. unless I do not understand or your back-of-envelope has major flaws in it.. you are predicting a massive shortfall in money and your solution – a 50 cent gas tax increase – in a era where gasoline itself might cost 10.00 a gallon or more… (with oil costing $200 a barrel or more)…

    I think… at that point… between the higher tax and the higher price of gasoline – if there are alternatives (like plug-ins).. a bunch of folks will avoid having to buy gasoline except for possibly vacations or special occasions but the average workday commute will be doing something other than using gasoline…

    I don’t see different electricity rates for cars than other uses… special plugs will be easily defeated… as long as the basic electricity feed is accessible…

    but it could well be that a supplemental rate fee would be added – across the board to everyone – whether they have a plug-in or not – which would end up being yet another incentive to use a plug-in.

    All of this ASSUMES that some kind of a technological break-through WILL occur that will provide battery technology economics that are superior to other fuels.

    for instance, if we create a car than can go 100 miles on a charge -but the batteries to do it cost 10 or 20K ….. the real cost of gassing up that car won’t be one buck worth of electricity… it will also include the per charge depreciation cost of the battery also… and if $10.00 a gallon gasoline is cheaper – guess what?

    Also… the initial cost.

    Most experts say right now that compact fluorescents are cheaper and less polluting in the longer run (including the mercury issue) … but when an incandescent costs 25 cents and a CF costs a buck… some folks just won’t have the money to “invest” …

    Of course.. all bets are off if the Govt starts charging for pollution.

  32. Jim Bacon Avatar

    Charlie, Increase the gasoline tax to 50 cents per gallon… Great. Now you’ve created a meaningful incentive for people to buy plug-ins. If the average Virginian drives 15,000 miles a year, and the average car of the future gets 25 miles per gallon, meaning that the average motorist will buy 600 gallons per year, that’s a $300-per-year advantage for electric cars. Not huge, but meaningful.

    At some point, you’ll reach a tipping point where people buy more electric vehicles, gas tax revenues fall, the gas tax goes up to make up the difference, people pay more in taxes, and they accelerate the shift to electric cars.

    The gas tax is doomed. My point is to start working on alternatives before the crisis comes. Virginia takes years to study anything. We need to start years ahead of time.

  33. We have this problem though.

    We pay for the maintenance and operation of just about anything the Commonwealth owns out of the General Fund.

    Why not roads?

    We have this special legislation that basically says that ANY money derived from the gas tax MUST be dedicated FIRST to maintenance and operation.

    Why not kill the gas tax all together and let road maintenance be a know/expected/predicted part of the overall M&O costs for all things the Commonwealth owns and thus must be maintained?

    Hey.. you know what?

    this sounds like a Job for Gilmore… he's pretty good at thinking out of the box about taxes… right?

  34. Larry G —
    The gas tax collects about $900m, not counting NOVA’s extra tax. This is just one of VA’s many taxes on drivers, kept lower than it should be to distract from the fact that the personal property tax is outrageous.

    If hybrid technology advances and cars are getting 60 mpg, the gas tax would need to go up 50 cents (or whatever) to maintain the $900m in revenue.

    What you’re missing is that is NOT a tax increase. You’re going to take your 60 mpg car and drive it the same 12,000 miles each year. Since you’re using 1/3rd the amount of gas but paying a 3x higher rate, the net amount you give to the government in tax will be the same. In other words, whatever transformation is required to keep the final figure at $900m is not a tax increase.

    Taxes are what you pay to the government, net. That is why a change in the gas tax rate in the “flying car” scenario where we’re all living in Jetsons houses with robotic maids and 200 mpg hybrids is not an increase. It is also why tolls are an increase.

    Jim Bacon: “My point is to start working on alternatives before the crisis comes. Virginia takes years to study anything. We need to start years ahead of time.”

    So do you have any criteria by which you reject ideas, or should anything be studied?

    How about instead of a per-mile tax we have a tire rotation tax that includes sensors on all four wheels. Since those 22″ chrome wheels on SUVs are so wasteful and stupid, you’d be taxed on the number of rotations (per wheel) multiplied by the diameter and by pi.

    Sure, you’d need four times the sensors, but you’d really be sticking it to those SUV owners with the “dub tax”. Plus, the rate could be four times lower than the per mile tax!

    “The gas tax is doomed.”

    It doesn’t become true by repetition.

    Respect the laws of thermodynamics. You can’t get something for nothing. The reason the free market settled on gasoline instead of steam and electricity in the 1900s was that it was the most efficient propulsion source (by far). It’s as true today as it was then.

    Larry G —

    I agree that funding roads from the general fund makes sense IF one day everyone is driving a plug-in car that uses no fuel. I don’t see that happening in my lifetime.

  35. Jim:

    Part of where I might find some agreement with you is in the definition of “plug-in”

    We’re not going to have true EV vehicles in the next 20 years — almost all of them will have some sort of engine on board, to provide some charging.

    The 60 MPG estimate for plug-ins is an artificial number. Some people, who don’t drive much every day, will be able to get by with batteries alone. Most people will use the engine a little bit to charge the car while driving.

    So, yes, my math is off there. 60 MPG is a very rough guess. If “settlement patterns” change and people do trips of less than 10 miles, then they might be able to really scale back their gasoline usage.

    Given that the average car in Virginia is driven some 17K miles today, I think using the 60 MPG is a safe estimate. This is a big state and people do drive a lot.

    The “average” car of the future is going to get at least 30 to 40 MPG based on regulatory requirements. The 60 MPG figure I tossed out was based on assuming 90% of cars are plug-ins. And at that number, you have a 1.3 billion dollar gap from today’s gas tax funding. Modest increases (50 cents) will lower that total gap to 800 million, and a heavy gas tax ($1) will bring it further down.

    Also, with the assumption that 90% of Virginia vehicles are plug in- the demand destruction would be high enough that gasoline would be cheap. Plug in at that point should be cheap enough ($1500 premium) that the only people buying real cars are hobbyists.

  36. I know this has a blasphemous sound to it…. but some folks actually commute to work in a multi-passenger vehicle…

    oh the shock and horror!!!!

    God forbid.. that it actually might be considered at least one of the options that folk might have in the wide world of ideas about gasoline, taxes, commuting in the settlement pattern conundrum.

    the heck you say.. that it’s technological AND fiscally possible in a world of $10 a gallon gasoline to live in Richmond, Va and work in NoVa and take one hour to do that commute?

    unbelievable… and certainly not in our lifetime…

    News Flash – the fella who rides in a multi-passenger vehicle everyday to and from work – does not care about the gas tax and the haunting spectre of his car only going 10 miles on electricity before it starts slurping 10 buck a gallon gasoline….

  37. Groveton Avatar

    Jim Bacon:

    I must commend you on your headline for this article. The French word for fish is poissons and you entitle the article, “Poisson Fishes for a Mileage Tax”. Very clever. Bravo.

  38. Oh, groan, I missed it. I thought my father was the only one who went for puns in multiple languages.

    RH

  39. “some folks actually commute to work in a multi-passenger vehicle…”

    And there is nothing whatsoever to prevent them from doing so. But others should not be required to subsidize their choice, beyond the benefit provided to those who pay.

    The way we are headed, multipassenger vehicles will be getting a free ride far beyond the actual benefits they provide.

    RH

  40. The gas tax is doomed.

    Nonsense.

    You expect to see plug in dump trucks? The fuel tax needs to be refined,a nd increased, not replaced with a mileage tax, which in any case and be exactly calculated as an equivalent fuel tax.

    Tell me how much the mileage tax would work out to in cents per gallon, and then we can have a discussion about it.

    Otherwise, its a sham, whose real agenda is not yet spoken.

    We are about to see an unprecedented governement intervention to save and increase the auto industry.

    And there is a reason for that.

    RH

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