• Transportation and Generational Analysis, Part 1

    A benefit of working for the Boomer Project is the opportunity I’ve had to look at some issues of long-standing personal interest, such as transportation, land use and the environment, through a new lens: the generational perspective. Each generation — the Silent/G.I. generation, the Baby Boomers, GenX and GenY — has a unique zeitgeist shaped by the times in which they were raised. As a result, individuals as far apart politically as, say, Gooze and myself, have strong generational similarities. Like other Boomers, we largely define ourselves by our work. We value being in control. We challenge authority.

    John Martin, the CEO of the Boomer Project, brings generational analysis to many of the same fields of interest that I have examined on the Bacon’s Rebellion blog. John also happens to run the BP’s sister company, the Southeastern Institute of Research (SIR), where he has conducted extensive marketing surveys for a variety of transportation agencies. One of his many insights is that GenY, weaned on electronic media and the green movement, approaches transportation very differently than do the Boomers who are now in charge of government agencies and public policy making.

    Recently, John addressed the George Washington Regional Commission in Fredericksburg in a session that was covered by the Free Lance-Star. I quote liberally from the coverage published in last week’s newspaper:

    Generation Y–people born after 1982–are constantly updating their whereabouts in real-time through text messaging, cell phones and the Web.

    This need for constant social interaction and feedback means ridesharing will come naturally to them, said Martin…

    “They’re so hyperconnected,” Martin said. Generation Y’s interest in the environment, volunteerism and civic duty will combine with this trend.

    During the summer spike in gas prices, all age groups said they reduced their driving — but the greatest reduction was among Generation Y drivers, Martin said.

    Though many Generation Y members are still in school, they have already organized online. According to Martin’s presentation, if MySpace were a country, it would be the 11th largest nation in the world.

    This technology-savvy population will be comfortable working on the go, and telecommuting will undergo a shift, Martin predicted.

    Generation Y workers will demand greater schedule flexibility to balance family and social time. Baby boomers see work as part of their identity, and will be reluctant to stop working. …

    Around 4 million workers telecommuted in 1990. Today, that number has grown to 24 million people. By 2010, 40 million people will work from off-site locations, Martin predicted. … Soon enough, even the language to describe the practice will change.

    “Telework is really remote work,” Martin said. “It’s work. Eventually, work is going to be work no matter where it’s done.”

    Because GenYs respond differently than previous generations did, public policy ideas that did not work with older generations may succeed with them. Carpooling is one. As John has marveled in conversations around the Boomer Project, GenYs are hyper-connected, and they use tools like MySpace and Craig’s list to arrange car pools with one another. This spontaneous, bottom-up response to high fuel prices is something no government agency ever could have organized.
    Telework is another idea that could be revivified. The idea of “telecommuting” sounded great in theory back in the 1990s but collided with the social realities of the Baby Boomer mindset. As John noted in Fredericksburg, however, GenY will take to telework like ducks to water. Even more encouraging, there are hints that GenYs may prefer to live in more compact, more balanced communities than the dysfunctional human settlement patterns bequeathed by the elders. (If we could just get them to stop text messaging while driving, they could prove a real boon to transportation efficiency!)
    As more ground-breaking research emerges from the Boomer Project and SIR, rest assured that I will report it here.

  • THANK YOU, GROVETON

    EMR is posting this thank you here because so many have reported that they do not bother with the comments due to the volume of New Flat Earth Society, the Business-As-Usual Crowd and 12.5 Percenter comments that our posts on this site engender. Especially now that Jim Bacon is gone.

    No one should miss Grovetonโ€™s great 9 Dec 08 post at 8:43 (Pages 13, 14 and 15 for those who print out important posts) on STIMULATING DISASTER โ€“ II posted 8 December.

    EMR hopes you do not object Groveton, Point 4 will appear in an End Note in Chapter 19 of TRILO-G โ€“ with attribution of course.

    Re Point 5, my guess is that you have not looked up the Six Overarching Strategies we cited in our earlier response to you on this issue.

    Problem is NOT figuring out what to do, the Problem it is convincing majority of citizens that the these six strategies (and others too, of course) are things that must be done.

    That is the lynch pin if a democracy with a market economy is to be preserved โ€“ or should it be โ€œrestoredโ€ now that โ€˜the marketโ€™ is being bought up by Agencies?

    One of the reasons it is hard to gain a majority of support for intelligent action is not just the New Flat Earth Society et. al. but a larger issue:

    The subject of the post by Rabbit at 11:03 on the same string concerning centralization / decentralization by โ€œjeffvailโ€ of 10 Dec (The link did work for EMR) is a perfect example.

    The whole post (and the graphic) that Rabbit referred to is great stuff but lacking an overarching Conceptual Framework of human settlement patterns and Vocabulary to articulate the Framework, it is not possible to communicate (โ€œnote use of โ€œSuburbiaโ€ in title).

    If you do not like The New Urban Regions Conceptual Framework and Vocabulary, come up with your own but do not pretend that it is possible to have meaningful dialogue without a comprehensive Conceptual Framework and a supporting Vocabulary.

    One other thing, now EVERYONE has someone to blame for their 401K tanking. It was Fannie and Freddie. Now there is a fresh set of villains. You can either hate the Donkey Clan and the White House / Big Government Elephants or the Senate No-Bailouts Elephants concerning the Autonomobile bailout.

    Just for fun reread โ€œRiding the Tigerโ€ of 2 June 2008.

    EMR


  • Two More Environmental Threats Facing Virginia

    The Old Dominion is facing two new environmental threats. Battle lines are being drawn regarding a proposed coal-fired electricity plant in Surry County. And pharma giant Merck wants permission to dump several times the levels of allowable pollutants into the Shenandoah River.

    The new issues come just after Dominion Power has begun contruction of a highly-controversial $1.8 billion, 585-megawatt coal-fired plant in St. Paul in Wise County. The project was supported by Gov. Tim Kaine although his own Commission on Global Change has set a goal of reducing greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, by 80 percent by 2050. Kaine has never squared that contradiction.

    Now, an entirely new project is being proposed By Old Dominion Electric Cooperative, a $6 billion coal-fired plant capable of producing up to 1,500 megawatts of electricity. The project would be located in Surry County in the town of Dendron about 40 miles west of Norfolk.

    If it proceeds, a plant up to triple the size of Dominion’s Wise County operation would be built close to tributaries of the James River and Chesapeake Bay and their sensitive crab and oyster spanning grounds. Its air pollution would be a matter of a few miles from Colonial Williamsburg and near one of the state’s most densely populated areas in Greater Tidewater. It would be close to Dominion’s two nuclear reactors at Surry.

    According to The Virginian-Pilot, the plant has drawn pledges of “all out war” from environmental groups including the Sierra Club, the Southern Envionrmental Law Center and the Chesapeake Climate Action Network.

    Since it is located not far from Norfolk Southern’s railroad mainline from the Appalachian coalfields to loading docks at Lambert’s Point in Norfolk, the plant, called the Cypress Creek Power Station, would have no trouble finding coal supplies. About three percent of its fuel would come from biomass.

    Yet details of the plant are few. It does not appear that it would involve any advanced, clean-coal technologies designed to trap carbon dioxide and keep more nitrogen, phosphorous and sulfur pollution out of the air. Dominion’s Wise County plant does not offer advanced “clean coal” technology, either.

    Meanwhile, Merck, a $24 billion pharmaceutical maker based in New Jersey, wants to be allowed to emit twice the amount of phosphorous and three times as much nitrogen as allowed by the Department of Environmental Quality at a plant in Elkton near the Shenandoah River. (Click here for details.) Those pollutants will flow into the Potomac River and eventually the Chesapeake Bay.

    The takeaway: Virginia prides itself on being “business friendly,” with its anti-labor, anti-environmentalist stances. Yet, the Surry coal plant could be three times the size of the hotly-contested Wise County plant and it is much closer to large, populated areas, not to mention sensitive marine life. It amazes that the plant has gotten little attention outside ot The VirginianPilot and especially not in the Richmond area where Old Dominion Electric is based.

    Even Tim Kaine talks out of both sides of his mouth when it comes to global warming. But how much longer is Big Business going to be allowed to have its way with the state’s air and water?

    Peter Galuszka


  • Could Bloggers Have Stopped Hitler?

    Could bloggers have stopped Hitler?

    Yes, says Jean-Marie Gustave Le Clezio during his acceptance speech for the Nobel Prize in Literature on Sunday.

    “Who knows, if the Internet had existed at the time, perhaps Hitler’s criminal plot would not have succeeded — ridicule might have prevented it from ever seeing the light of day,” the author of such works as “The Book of Flights” and “Terra Amata” said.

    Blogging may have it limits in that it is only as good, as accurate and as honest as the writer. But blogging is diffuse and completely bypasses the traditional gatekeepers at newspapers, magazines, television programs and even e-zines.

    As one level of the media becomes corporatized, sanitized and emasculated another has arisen that can be free of all of those concerns. One doesn’t have to submit to someone else’s idea of what the right “tone” is or if a thought is “civil” or “high-minded” enough.

    So, be glad that this blog is free, at least for now.

    Gee, I wonder what Thomas Jefferson would say?

    Peter Galuszka


  • STIMULATING DISASTER — PART TWO

    In STIMULATING DISASTER posted 7 December 2008 โ€“ the date of posting is NOT a happenstance โ€“ EMR commented on a short list of specific proposals put forth by the president-elect, Barack Obama to โ€œstimulate the economy.โ€

    On that same day on a television talk show, the president-elect suggested that the economic problem โ€œwould get worse before it got better.โ€ Few disagree with that assessment.

    The gross mismanagement of US of A financial Enterprises and Agencies โ€“ selling speculative paper based on bad mortgages โ€“ destabilized an over-leverage global financial system that was already grossly over-dependent on unsustainable โ€˜growth.โ€™ It will take more than creating public service jobs, cutting energy consumption in Agency buildings, tinkering with health records and other sideshows addressed in STIMULATING DISASTER to make any significant change, much less achieve Fundamental Transformation to a sustainable trajectory for society.

    Fundamental Transformation will require addressing the BIG ENCHILADAS:

    The Mobility and Access Crisis, and
    The Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis

    That means getting serious about the Helter Skelter Crisis, aka dysfunctional human settlement patterns and the unsustainable trajectory of contemporary civilization.

    MOBILITY AND ACCESS

    The only things that are on the table with respect to The Mobility and Access Crisis are:

    โ€ข โ€œFixingโ€ the Interstate System and โ€œrebuilding highwaysโ€ addressed in STIMULATING DISASTER and the comments following the post, and

    โ€ข Bailing out the three largest Autonomobile Enterprises.

    With respect to the later, Congress and the White House are on the case. They turned down a request for a $35 billion blank check and are tinkering with a smaller, short term blank check.

    However, before they turn over the money, they want some assurance that there will be changes made. They want the head of General Motors to be fired.

    They are absolutely right in getting to the core problem. What is GM doing with Mr. Wagoner in the lead? They need Mr. Hybrid.

    It is not a joke that Congress is demanding Wagonerโ€™s head. It is a joke if they think that will make any difference.

    Wagoner has been on the job since 2000. The problem citizen now face has been growing since 1920. The unsustainable trajectory should have been clear to all since 1973.

    In 1973 EMR lost a good client and a great project. Ford Motor Company, to handshake partner of the client, Weyerhaeuser Timber Company, walked away from a proposal to build a prototype Planned New Community applying new Mobility and Access technology being developed by Fordโ€™s Fairlane research program.

    When the OPEC Oil Embargo hit, Ford abandoned the idea of innovation (and fired the whole Fairlane Research Center that was looking at vehicle / settlement pattern relationships) to focus on their โ€œcore business.” Ford and the other Autonomobile Enterprises continued to focus on their โ€œcore business” over the next 35 years. They now face bankruptcy because their “core business” is not sustainable for the reasons spelled out in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.

    The problem is not some short-term, short-sightedness of a few CEOs, it is a problem of relying of Large, Private Vehicles to provide Mobility and Access to an Urban society. Autonomobiles have grown more complex and more costly to build, operate and maintain and more dependent on cheap energy every year since 1973. With the end of cheap energy, the 35 year joy ride is over.

    The choice is either an alternative Mobility and Access System to support a sustainable human settlement pattern or Depression. Take your pick.

    Chrysler president Jim Press says: โ€œThe solution is product.โ€ No, the solution is a Fundamental Transformation in the settlement pattern and in the infrastructure and vehicles to provide Mobility and Access.

    (This just in: The ASHTO lanudry list released in Philidelphia today is made up mainly of projects that that will make human settlement patterns MORE dysfunctional. And to this a list of shared-vehicle system projects like the Silver Line and you have a real disaster.)

    AFFORDABLE AND ACCESSIBLE HOUSING

    The other half of the BIG ENCHILADA solution to address the Helter Skelter Crisis is a way to provide citizens with Affordable and Accessible Housing.

    Here again the issue is quite clear and has been addressed by columns in Baconโ€™s Rebellion for five years.

    What triggered the Global Financial Meltdown was speculative paper base on bad mortgages. The underlying problem was not just loans to bad people or even bad people making bad loans, it was making loans on the Wrong Sized House in the Wrong Location.

    For half a decade EMR has been saying that the problem with Fanning and Freddie was not just bloated executive compensation, unsound lending practices and no oversight. The problem was that Freddie and Fannie was pumping Billions into an overheated housing market and exacerbating an unsustainable settlement pattern.

    We explored this issue in a series of posts: โ€œIT IS ELEMENTARY,โ€ (10 October 2008), โ€œTHE ROLE OF THE MEDIA,โ€ (11 October 2008), โ€œSWIFT BOATING THE MORTGAGE CRISIS,โ€ (12 October 2008) and โ€œTHE BOTTOM LINE,โ€ 13 October 2008). These posts will appear, in an edited format as โ€œIT IS THE SETTLEMENT PATTERN STUPIDโ€ in TRILO-G.

    Bailing out mortgagees or mortgagors will not solve the Mortgage Meltdown problem, that will require Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns.

    Who will lead that effort? When one looks for an answer to this question, the future looks very scary. In todayโ€™s WaPo Robert J. Samuelsonโ€™s column is titled โ€œBernankeโ€™s Burden.โ€ The column outlines why Bernanke is the central figure in solving the financial crisis and points out that Bernake will be around in the new administration unless forced to resign.

    Let us review Bernankeโ€™s understanding of shelter finance as noted in THANKSGIVING PERSPECTIVE:

    โ€œBernanke: Thereโ€™s No Housing Bubble to Go Bustโ€ in WaPo Business Section 27 October 2005 (A few days before President Bush nominated Bernanke to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve.)

    โ€œHousing Cool-Down Is โ€˜Orderly,โ€™ Fed Chief (Bernanke) Saysโ€ in WaPo Business Section, 19 May 2006

    โ€œFed Chief (Bernanke) Says Housing Problems Wonโ€™t Spread to Rest of Economyโ€ on Page C4 of the 29 March 2007 New York Times.

    A 5 December WaPo headline reads: โ€œBernanke Stirs Pot On Home Loan Help: U.S. Must Take Action, Fed Chairman Says.

    The bottom line is still that the โ€œleadersโ€ at the federal level did not have a clue what was happening and they still do not know what happened or what will result from pumping more cheap money into shelter related Enterprises before everyone understand the importance of evolving functional human settlement patterns.

    At the least mortgage assistance must be focused on loans that qualify for Location Efficient Mortgages.

    If mortgages are secured by interests in sound, well located dwellings, even if the mortgagee cannot pay, someone can buy the dwelling and make it a home.

    In the National Capital Subregion, the typical cost of a foreclosure mortgage wash for a dwelling in a scattered (orphan) Cluster-scale subdivision in the R = 25 to R = 40 Radius Band are running around $100,000 for a $190,000 resale. A 35 percent mark down on just 5 million underwater mortgages is $500 billion.

    Here is the first paragraph of our 9 November 2008 post โ€œWrong House, Wrong Locationโ€:

    โ€œOn 31 October CNNMoney.com reported that First American CoreLogic had found 7.5-million home mortgages already โ€œunderwaterโ€ and another 2.1-million that were on the brink
    . The International Herald Tribune story cited in EMRโ€™s post โ€œWAPO AND IHT HOUSING AND MORTGAGE COVERAGE,โ€ 29 October on this Blog pegged the potential for underwater mortgages by 2010 at 19-million.โ€

    You heard about the cause for Thanksgiving on turkey day. Any idea about New Years resolutions?

    Note: This post (and other recent posts) have not been edited by Jim Bacon so it may not be as clear as it might otherwise be.

    EMR


  • STIMULATING DISASTER

    The following is the headline, byline and the first four paragraphs of the story that was at the top, right of page A 1 in todayโ€™s WaPo.

    EMR has inserted in brackets [ ] comments in the text and following the quoted material added comments on the โ€œmassiveโ€ plan to create jobs. We hope these notes make it clear why these ideas, though well intended, are โ€˜stimulating disasterโ€™ (or perhaps compounding disaster) on the way to Collapse. Since the political leadership of the Commonwealth was an early supporter of the president-elect, one can expect Virginia to be a recipient of some of this job creation stimulus.

    ……………

    Obama Offers First Look at Massive Plan To Create Jobs
    Project Would Be the Largest Since the Interstate System

    [In retrospect the negative impact the Interstate System on human settlement patterns inside the Clear Edges and outside the Clear Edges is crystal clear. It is also just as clear that a different design for an InterRegional Roadway System โ€“ for example one with key elements of the system laid out in 1924 would have had far more beneficial impacts and far fewer negative impacts and it would have created far more jobs.]

    By Michael D. Shear

    Washington Post Staff Writer
    Sunday, December 7, 2008; A01

    On the heels of more grim unemployment news, President-elect Barack Obama yesterday offered the first glimpse of what would be the largest public works program since President Dwight D.
    Eisenhower created the federal interstate system in the 1950s.

    [Dwight did not โ€œcreateโ€ the Interstate System.]

    Obama said the massive government spending program he proposes to lift the country out of economic recession will include a renewed effort to make public buildings energy-efficient, rebuild the nation’s highways, renovate aging schools and install computers in classrooms, extend high-speed Internet to underserved areas and modernize hospitals by giving them access to electronic medical records.

    [See notes below on each element that is listed.]

    “We need to act with the urgency this moment demands to save or create at least 2 ยฝ million jobs so that the nearly 2 million Americans who’ve lost them know that they have a future,” Obama said in his weekly address, broadcast on the radio and the Internet.

    [See note revised from โ€œThanksgiving Perspectiveโ€ below concerning the jobs that are really needed.]

    Obama offered few details and no cost estimate for the investment in public infrastructure. But it is intended to be part of a broader effort to stimulate economic activity that will also include tax cuts for middle-class Americans and direct aid to state governments to forestall layoffs as programs shrink.

    [The devil โ€“ and the path to disaster and Collapse โ€“ is in the details.]

    ……………..

    Consider each of the listed elements:

    โ€œMake public buildings energy-efficientโ€

    There is nothing โ€˜wrongโ€™ with trying to make public buildings more energy-efficient. However, what really needs to be made more energy-efficient and less energy-consumptive is the settlement pattern. It is the arrangement of buildings and spaces that is the primary driver of dysfunction and waste, not just of energy but of time and all other resources.

    The downside of a focus on public building efficiency is that Agencies have a disastrous record trying to make anything related to buildings and settlement patterns โ€œefficientโ€ due to the pervasive dysfunction in governance structure โ€“ Public Housing, Urban Renewal, Zoning and Subdivision Controls, Ag subsidies, roadway, waterway and airport subsides come to mind.

    Collectively, Agencies at the federal state and municipal level have created The Mobility and Access Crisis, The Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and The Helter Skelter Crisis.

    โ€œRebuild the nation’s highwaysโ€

    Putting more resources into a system to support near exclusive reliance on Large, Private Vehicles (Autonomobiles) for Mobility and Access is an invitation to less Mobility and less Access. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS

    โ€œRenovate aging schoolsโ€

    Fine idea, most of the investment in schools over the past 30 years has been to support children of those who have been induced to (or had not choice but to) buy the Wrong Size House in the Wrong Location.

    The problem with investing in the schools that really need renovation is that the Clusters and Neighborhoods where the children live need โ€˜renovationโ€™ even more than the schools. Can you say โ€œrebuild the Urban fabric inside the Clear Edges to create Balanced Communities?โ€

    โ€œInstall computers in classroomsโ€

    Great idea. But from the advertisements on MainStream Media is appears that the NBA is already doing this.

    Perhaps before computers are installed there needs to be a comprehensive strategy to address the results of over technological saturation that is driving Mass OverConsumption. See โ€œThe Dumbest Generation: How the Digital Age Stupefies Young Americans and Jeopardizes Our Futureโ€ by Mark Bauerlein.

    Dumping more technology on students may be no better than dumping more asphalt on the landscape or putting every efficient lighting in dysfunctionally scattered buildings.

    โ€œExtend high-speed Internet to underserved areasโ€

    Whoa! Here we go again. Unless there is an intelligent nation-state-wide Wright Plan, this program will be subsidizing those who have made bad location decisions with little benefit to any but those who are at the broadband subsidy trough.

    โ€œModernize hospitals by giving them access to electronic medical records.โ€

    This is a real whiz-bang idea. It is the system of delivering medical services that needs Transformation. Electronic medical records are not even a sty on the gnat eye.

    The bigger Picture

    There is nothing here about bailing out Autonomobile Enterprises or the Shelter Enterprises. That seems strange given the magnitude of the โ€œproblem.โ€ EMR will deal with the pitfalls with the current ideas in these areas in due course.

    As we noted in Thanksgiving Perspectives what is really needed are sustainable ways to use the US of Aโ€™s greatest surplus resource.

    That resource is citizens who are not very bright and not very motivated. They:

    โ€ข Slept through the important parts of high school

    โ€ข Want to be entertained rather that create their own active, healthful recreation

    โ€ข Almost all have made location and consumption decisions that they thought were in their best interest, but cumulatively these actions contribute to the growing economic, social and physical dysfunction

    Because they happen to be born in US of A they believe โ€œsomeoneโ€ owes them a comfortable life of consumption and entertainment.

    They are not willing to work at the jobs that are attractive to those who are bright, resourceful but were unfortunate enough to have been born in some other nation-state.

    There is plenty of challenge and opportunity for the bright and the motivated, it is the vast majority of the Running As Hard As They Cans and most of the Losing Grounds in the bottom 90 percent of the Ziggurat that need reorientation and something productive to do.

    Telling a large percentage of the population they are fat, under-educated and slothful is not a way to get elected or reelected. โ€œLeadingโ€ the citizens out of their self-created wilderness of sloth, indulgence and dysfunctional ways may not be p
    ossible with dwindling resources. But this short laundry list of ideas to generate is a not starter.

    Note: This post (and โ€œThanksgiving Perspectives:) was not edited by Jim Bacon so it may not be as clear as it might otherwise be.

    EMR


  • The Bacon’s Rebellion E-zine and the King James Bible

    Fellow bloggers, I apologize for my absence. If I’d been more attentive, I might have been able to smooth things over before the rupture between Peter Galuszka and the new publishers of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine took place (see previous post). Here’s what’s going on.

    Mike Thompson, president of the Jefferson Institute for Public Policy and a long-time contributor to the e-zine, approached me after I ceased publication and offered to take over. (Read his profile and the list of columns he and his associates have written here.) We thought it would be worthwhile to provide a platform for the contributors to the “old” e-zine should they still desire one. Because of my new obligations, I would not have time to edit it, as I used to do, although I might contribute a column from time to time.

    The Jefferson Institute is a Northern Virginia think tank that, like Bacon’s Rebellion, focuses on public policy issues in Virginia. The organization espouses a pragmatic free market/fiscal conservatism approach that I was comfortable with. However, Mike agreed to maintain the open spirit of the e-zine, keeping it open to a wide variety of viewpoints — a key point that I insisted upon and Mike readily agreed to. Although Mike and his team would take over editing and distribution of the e-zine (and posting the e-zine on the website), they have agreed to run any columns past me before publication. I have the right under our agreement to exercise veto rights over any content I deem incompatible with Bacon’s Rebellion brand. I continue to “own” the e-zine. However, the e-zine will bear a tag-line saying, “published by the Jefferson Institute,” or something very similar, to reflect its new role.

    It was my intention to announce the new arrangement in concert with publication of the first edition, which is coming out shortly. I will post the columns to this blog for public comment, as I did for the “old” e-zine.

    Otherwise, there will be no connection between the e-zine and the Bacon’s Rebellion blog, which I continue personally to moderate and contribute to (although my presence has been diminished of late). Neither Mike nor any of his associates have posting rights to the blog, nor have they asked for them. As far as I know, they do not even participant in the comments section of the blog. Peter is free to continue posting to this blog as long as he wants to.

    Some time ago, I issued invitations to participants of the “old” e-zine to contribute to the new publication. Not everyone chose to do so. Norm Leahy, a valued, long-time e-zine columnist and poster to this blog, will not contribute. He is affiliated with Tertium Quids, a conservative, non-partisan advocacy group that has issues with the Jefferson Institute. Several other columnists, including Peter, did agree to participate.

    Peter submitted a column, “RIP to Immigrant Bashers” (which he subsequently posted on this blog). Kiel Stone, the first-line editor, made mainly minor, stylistic edits. As I understand it, he passed on the edited column to Mike, who made the call to delete one particular line referring to the King James Bible as being the preferred version of immigrant bashers. When Peter reviewed the edited version, he took exception to the cut on the grounds of both substance and editorial integrity.

    I was aware of this issue early Friday morning but did not have time at the time to respond thoughtfully. For the record, had I had a chance, I would have urged Mike not to delete the phrase. While I personally regard the King James Bible as one of the greatest works of English literature, and while I can understand how those who would revere it would find the reference offensive, Peter is free to offend whom he pleases. He has legitimate reasons (based on the mis-use of the KJV by nativist groups) for making his statement, so his statement falls within the bounds of reasoned discourse. The whole point of Bacon’s Rebellion is to include a diversity of viewpoints — including sharply expressed views that may make me uncomfortable.

    Unfortunately, while I was at work Friday, a series of emails between Mike and Peter resulted in a breech that would seem impossible to repair. Then Peter went public with his post on this blog, prompting this explanation. So, that’s the story, folks. I apologize for failing to intervene in a timely manner and quietly settle the issue behind the scenes.


  • Warning to BR Bloggers

    As you know Jim Bacon has transferred some or all control (not clear) to the Thomas Jefferson Public Policy Institute, a conservative think tank.

    In all the years I have known Jim, I know that he has stood for the finest values in freedom of speech, the media and of ideas. The Institute does not.

    At their request, I wrote an article for the upcoming e-zine edition. But I didn’t like their editing and protested. Then they censored the item (I managed to post it as a blog item just before this) for the upcoming e-zine saying the “tone” was wrong. I was also told I was off Bacons Rebellion. I didn’t realize they were my new bosses.

    Fellow bloggers, I may not agree with all of you and we’ve had some rather lively exchanges. But I deeply respect all of you and fervently hope you all can maintain the right to express your ideas without filters or “tonality” checks by some politically-charged institute that obviously has its eye on grant money and smooth connections. If this is the case, your good work will become high minded and inoffensive pablum.

    I can’t reach Jim. He never would have done this. But be warned.

    Respectfully and in friendship (Let’s see how long I have access to the blog)

    Peter Galuszka


  • Immigrant Bashers: R.I.P.

    One of the more curious things about Novemberโ€™s election is how immigrant-bashing somehow evaporated as a Republican issue. Even more interesting is that two of the GOPโ€™s biggest immigrant-bashers โ€“ Virgil H. Goode Jr. and Thelma Drake โ€“ are toast.

    This should be an instructive tale as Virginia moves forward into 2009 and tries to deal with some of the far more serious problems, such as dealing with the worst economic crisis in decades and long-neglected issues such as the large number of Virginians who have no health insurance.

    Even the conservative Wall Street Journalโ€™s editorial page noted: โ€œImmigration wasnโ€™t a dominant issue this fall, and other factors contributed to the GOP defeat. But the political reality is that Republicans who thought that channeling Lou Dobbs would save their seats will soon be ex-Members.โ€

    Thatโ€™s a lesson Goode and Drake learned the hard way. Goode, a 12-year incumbent, was trumped in a squeaker by international lawyer and Albemarle County native Tom Perriello. Drake was dumped by Glenn Nye.

    Of the pair, Goode was especially obnoxious. He brought shame and ridicule to the Old Dominion in 2006 by writing on U.S. House of Representatives stationery that unless his hard-right immigration policies, including rescinding current law that children of illegal immigrants born in the U.S. can be U.S. citizens, we will see the influx of undesirables, namely people of the Muslim faith. โ€œIf Americans donโ€™t wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration there likely will be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Koran,โ€ he wrote.

    So much for religious tolerance. But in his letter, Goode also showed his unspeakable ignorance since the issue had to do with whether a newly-elected Muslim Congressman from the Midwest would be sworn in on the Bible (presumably the King James Version, the preferred one for bashers). Turns out no Congressmen are sworn in โ€œon the Bible.โ€

    Then Goode made idiotic comments that Mexican restaurants shouldnโ€™t display the Mexican flag. Whatโ€™s next, a ban on the Irish tri-colors outside an Irish bar?

    Not that Goode didnโ€™t have other problems. He was linked to a defense contracting scandal that sent fellow Republican Randy Cunningham to prison. The San Diego political and former jet fighter ace in the Vietnam War was convicted for helping get contracts for MZM, Inc., a higher tech national security firm, which gave $88,000 to Goode in political contributions although the firm had nothing to do with Goodeโ€™s District. Goode said he redistributed those funds to non-profits.

    During his bitter campaign against Perriello, Goode tried to paint the Virginia native and long-time resident of Albemarle County as a Yankee outlander with a funny-sounding, Italian last name. In fact, Perriello is a respected international lawyer and Yale grad who has done lots of work in complex legal issues involving Darfur, Sierra Leone, and Afghanistan. The โ€œNew York lawyer,โ€ as Goodeโ€™s campaign branded him, won by 745 votes.

    Thelma Drake is a kind of Goode-lite. Also an immigrant-basher, she supported such proposals as making it illegal to spend federal money to alert the Mexican government about movements of the Minutemen, a kind of yea-hoo vigilante outfit of anti-immigrant volunteers who, armed with deer rifles, CB radios, night vision glasses and binoculars, take it upon themselves to โ€œpatrolโ€ the Southwestern borders.

    Now if you want to consider someone who actually knows something about the immigration issue, look at Arizona Governor and former U.S. Attorney Janet Napolitano who has just been picked by President-elect Barack Obama as his candidate for Homeland Security.

    Napolitano is not at all in favor of illegal immigration and has the smarts to realize what a complex issue it is. As she told the National Press Club in 2007: โ€œIt is too easy for the โ€˜bad guysโ€™ to enter our country and too difficult for the โ€˜good guysโ€™ โ€“ whose energies and intellects we need โ€“ to obtain lawful status.โ€

    Vigilance is needed since in 2006, during one 24-hour period, an estimated 4,000 immigrants would cross into her state illegally. That number dropped by a third with the arrival of National Guard units.

    But simply taking a Rambo-stance wonโ€™t work. She notes that her state is Mexicoโ€™s biggest trading partner by far โ€“ representing some $4 billion worth of goods โ€“ especially with the bordering Mexican state of Sonora. โ€œI spend more time working with the Governor of Sonora than I spend with any U.S. governor,โ€ she said.

    The visa system is in desperate need to revision, she said. For example, according to todayโ€™s system, the Dominican Republic, with 8 million people, is granted per capita more visas than Mexico with a population of 100 million. โ€œNo wonder it takes, on average, more than 10 years to get a legal immigrant visa from Mexico โ€“ talk about an incentive to cross illegally.โ€

    Mind you, these are the ideas of a woman who actually knows something about the immigration issue, not Goode nor Drake. To both of them: good riddance!

    Peter Galuszka


  • THANKSGIVING PERSPECTIVE

    The economic and political โ€˜newsโ€™ via MainStream Media during the week before Thanksgiving 2008 provided a strong incentive to give fervent thanks. But perhaps not the thanks that some think.

    First some context:

    In the early 1970s EMRโ€™s and his Clustermates worked hard to elect a โ€œreform / changeโ€ candidate for County Executive in Howard County, Maryland. Our candidate won. EMR received a plum political appointment (an unsalaried commission chairpersonship) and a broad range of very useful experiences.

    The citizens of Howard County, however, did not fare as well. The new County Exec spent the next four years proving that he would NOT do what his opposition warned he would do if he was elected โ€“ and what those who voted for him hoped he would do if he was elected.

    There was no Fundamental Transformation under the new Exec. He was not reelected to a second term because he had only partially satisfied those who voted against him in the first election and frustrated those who voted for him. He tried to satisfy all the voters instead of taking the actions that were necessary to achieve a sustainable trajectory for the Communities that are all or part in Howard County.

    The time frame was a pivotal one in the evolution of the Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region. The Planned New Community of Columbia, MD is located in Howard County. Due to county actions and inactions, many aspects of James Rouseโ€™s vision for Columbia were least-common-denominatored into oblivion and lost forever. Now Reston is cited as THE place in the Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region which demonstrates that there is an alternative to dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See superficial but accurate story โ€œThe Often-Imitated Reston Eyes Future With Trepidation,โ€ 28 November 2008 in WaPo. (We say โ€œsuperficialโ€ because to really address this issue would require the entire Section A โ€˜news hole.โ€™ That is not possible. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    EMR lived for nearly a decade in Columbia (1972-1980) and in Reston (1980-1988). Both have become less than their potential but the biggest lost opportunity occurred in Columbia while โ€œourโ€ candidate was County Exec. During that time there was an opportunity to use Community actions in the context of the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo to provide examples that could have been springboards toward a sustainable future. The opportunities were squandered.

    Fast forward to the last week of November in 2008. The handwriting is on the wall.

    There is a palpable optimism in Greater Warrenton-Fauquier, in the Commonwealth of Virginia and in the US of A. Citizens believe they have reason to hope there will be โ€œchange we can believe in,โ€ change for the better. This optimism is evidenced by the celebration in Grant Park, the demand for tickets to Inauguration events and in animated conversations on Main Street.

    There are signs of optimism are based on some of the President-Elects initial statements and promised nominations. The stock market was up before Thanksgiving on the speculation that there will be more bailouts.

    It should be noted that not all the views are positive. There are those who fear real change and they are portraying the prospect of Obama led change with a negative spin. Politics-As-Usual advocates are filling partisan blogs with demeaning observations on every action, rumor or illusion that can be misinterpreted to generate fear. The most frightening head line? Karl Rove says Obama is doing a good job because he is picking โ€œexperiencedโ€ political operatives.

    But what is REALLY happening?

    The optimism is based on the assumption that the next administration, lead by an economic team of retreads will return the economy to one driven by Mass OverConsumption driven and that these actions will โ€˜saveโ€™ and create jobs for the unmotivated and under-qualified consumers.

    The problem is that every action to build consumer confidence and increase consumption will make it harder to achieve sustainable trajectory for First World civilization.

    Buying new Autonomobiles will only reinforce dysfunctional human settlement patterns. Bailing out mortgages on Wrong Size Houses in the Wrong Locations will only encourage more unsecured lending and the development of even more dysfunctional settlement patterns.

    While the recent โ€˜teamโ€™ announcements generate optimism about a bigger cornucopia of even more bailouts, citizens should have grave reservations about the appointments announced to date.
    These are the same politics-as-usual โ€˜playersโ€™ who made the decisions that put the economy in meltdown.

    They do not understand the importance of human settlement patterns. They do not understand the roll of Autonomobiles in creating the Mobility and Access Crisis. Members of the transportation team (Downey, Garvey, Heminger, Oberstar and the rest) have spent their entire working life making the mistakes that have resulted in a failed and crumbling Mobility and Access System.

    The US of A has grossly OVER INVESTED in and OVER-SUBSIDIZED Air Travel capacity on the assumption that demand will grow without regard to the total cost and environmental impact. Rising costs โ€“ including finally paying for environmental impact โ€“ is putting air travel out of the reach of most. The inconvenience of anti-terrorism measures makes air travel a pain for all but those who fly in private planes. โ€œSee The End of Flight As We Knew It.โ€ (As an aside, there is painful irony in United Airlines betting on rising fuel costs in the short run. Why again are โ€˜futuresโ€™ not just another form of anti-Community gambling?)

    The US of A has grossly UNDER INVESTED in functional IntraRegional and InterRegional shared-vehicle ground transport that would support functional and sustainable settlement patterns.

    The US of A has grossly OVER INVESTED and OVER-SUBSIDIZED Autonomobility on the false assumption that Large, Private Vehicles could provide Mobility and Access in spite of a laundry list of obvious problems. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.

    The vast majority of citizens live in a handful of MegaRegions โ€“ conterminous New Urban Regions โ€“ for which the Autonomobile and Large, Private Vehicle Roadway Systems is the problem, not the solution for Mobility and Access.

    The transport infrastructure is failing โ€“ there is a Mobility and Access Crisis and the facilities are falling apart. Big construction projects to produce jobs will just mean more investment in the wrong systems and will not provide sustainable Mobility and Access and will not support unsustainable human settlement patterns.

    The new economic โ€˜teamโ€™ still does not understand the impact of the housing market on the economy. Few admit the impact of the Wrong Size House in the Wrong Location in the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the Mobility and Access Crisis.

    Here is a quote from Chapter 22 of BRIDGES now in final draft:

    โ€œOut of all this, three clippings stand out:

    1. โ€œBernake: Thereโ€™s No Housing Bubble to Go Bustโ€ in WaPo Business Section 27 October 2005

    2. โ€œHousing Cool-Down Is โ€˜Orderly,โ€™ Fed Chief (Bernake) Saysโ€ in WaPo Business Section, 19 May 2006

    3. โ€œFed Chief (Bernake) Says Housing Problems Wonโ€™t Spread to Rest of Economyโ€ on Page C4 of the 29 March 2007 New York Times.

    The first quote was from a few days before President Bush nominated Bernake to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The bottom line is that the โ€œleadersโ€ at the federal level did not have a clue what was happening.โ€

    They still do not know what happened or what will result from pumping more cheap money into shelter related Enterprises before everyone understand the importance of evolving functional human settlement patterns.

    The economic rescue squad is burning
    through the $700-billion bailout war chest but handing it out to whom so ever threatens to go under. Student loan sharks are the latest โ€˜victims.โ€™

    Here is a great vignette: In the 30 November Wapo (Close to Home) a state senator from Maryland says: โ€œEffective Stimulus? Think Local, Mr. Obama.โ€ Jim Bacon frequently rails about municipal Agency waste and here is a specific. Senator Rosapepe wants federal money to help pay for CROSSING GUARDS.

    The reason crossing guards are needed is because children cannot walk safely to school. Why? Dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See note on Columbia and Reston above. Both these still Beta Communities demonstrated how to have safe pathways to schools, the library and the store โ€“ including โ€œeyes on the pathโ€ โ€“ forty years ago. Columbiaโ€™s system deteriorated because the School Board scrapped Neighborhood schools and build too many too large shopping venues as noted in The Shape of the Future. Wherever one turns it is THE SETTLEMENT PATTERN STUPID.

    The head line reads โ€œThe Car of the Future โ€“ But at What Cost? Hybrid Vehicles Are Popular, but Making Them, Profitable Is a Challenge.โ€ What nonsense! There is a sure way to make any product profitable: Raise price to cover expenses plus profit. But for Large, Private Vehicles โ€“ regardless of the source of power โ€“ raising the price means far fewer will be able to afford Autonomobiles. That means the Autonomobile Enterprises will not be able to use most of their overbuilt capacity based on the false assumption that Autonomobiles would provide Mobility and Access.

    And all that new technology? The more complex the vehicle, the more it costs. Most citizens would need nothing more than their feet, a bike, a Segway, a Vespa or a Golf Cart for all their travel IF THERE WERE FUNCTIONAL SETTLEMENT PATTERNS.

    EMR noted in a recent blog post:

    โ€œThe cost of energy in all forms โ€“ and all goods and services that use energy โ€“ is going up.

    โ€œBurning thru easy-to-access Natural Capital and borrowing from foreign suppliers has kept the cost of energy and all that energy cost impact artificially low.

    โ€œAlready the cost of energy has ended The Age of Accessible Air Travel (Terrorism has ended convenient Air Travel at any cost.) See โ€œThe End of Flight As We Have Known It.โ€

    โ€œThe end of The Age of Autonomobiles, The Age of Big, Scattered Dwellings and other examples of Mass OverConsumption is in sight.

    โ€œSo is the end of a lot of other things.โ€

    The only question is can citizens come to understand the need for Fundamental Transformations fast enough to implement them before there are not enough resources left to make the Transformation.

    The Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday headlines on the economy and the governance transition have been over-washed by the attacks in Mumbai, Bangkok and Wal*Mart. No one will know for months if the stock market โ€˜good newsโ€™ and the cut rate โ€˜doorbustersโ€™ stimulated the economy but if they did, that just makes things worse.

    What does the administration do to โ€œsave jobsโ€ in an dysfunctional economy? Stimulating consumption is not the answer.

    What is really need are sustainable ways to use the US of Aโ€™s greatest surplus resource. That resource is citizens who are not very bright and not very motivated. They:

    โ€ข Slept through the important parts of high school

    โ€ข Want to be entertained rather that create their own active, healthful recreation

    โ€ข Almost all have made location and consumption decisions that they thought were in their best interest, but cumulatively these actions contribute to the growing economic, social and physical dysfunction

    Because they happen to be born in US of A they believe โ€œsomeoneโ€ owes them a comfortable life of consumption and entertainment. They are not willing to work at the jobs that those that are attractive to those who are bright, resourceful and were unfortunate enough to have been born in some other nation-state.

    There is plenty of challenge and opportunity for the bright and the motivated, it is the vast majority of the Running As Hard As They Cans and most of the Losing Grounds in the bottom 90 percent of the Ziggurat that need reorientation and something productive to do.

    Telling a large percentage of the population they are fat, under-educated and slothful is not a way to get elected or reelected. โ€œLeadingโ€ the citizens out of their self-created wilderness of sloth, indulgence and dysfunctional ways may not be possible with dwindling resources.

    It has taken EMR 40 years to develop the comprehensive Conceptual Framework and the Vocabulary to articulate what should have been obvious to all in 1973. Having those tools in Howard County in 1974 would have been useful. Now the entire nation-state is sliding to the edge and no one is interested in anything but getting back to Mass OverConsumption.

    This post opened with a reference to the economic political news during the last week of November and suggested that this news provided reason to give thanks.

    Some think a rebounding stock market, lower mortgage interest rates and lower gas prices to encourage more holiday travel were cause for optimism.

    Wrong.

    The reason for giving thanks this season is:

    Most of us born before World War II will be gone before the full impact of sloth, indulgence, consumption and corruption that has led to Mass OverConsumption and settlement pattern dysfunction turns out most of the lights and humans are left with the challenge of making draconian Transformations and few, very expensive resources with which to make them.

    EMR hopes you had a nice Thanksgiving too.

    EMR


  • It Takes More than Awesome Bicycles to Make Biking a Viable Transportation Option

    It’s going to take a lot more than cool new commuter bikes like the one pictured here to persuade more people to use bicycles for transportation, not just recreation, in the Richmond region. It would be helpful if Virginia jurisdictions designed balanced communities where a variety of destinations were located within easy biking distance. In the case of my home county of Henrico, it would be helpful to actually have bicycle paths.

    But every innovation helps, even if it comes from the people who design bicycles rather than communities. According to the Cycling for Boomers blog, Wisconsin-based Trek, the largest U.S.-based bike manufacturer, this year is introducing two chainless models that replace the clunky, maintenance-intensive chain with a greaseless, rust-proof carbon fiber belt.

    The lighter, longer-lasting carbon-fiber composite belts can’t be cut, won’t stretch or slip and won’t leave grease marks around your ankles, says Eric Bjorling, Trek’s lifestyle brand manager. There is one drawback: One of these bad boys retails for $990.

    Price aside, I doubt we’ll see many of these in Richmond. The city has some super-cool mountain biking trails around the river, but only a handful of bicycle lanes that could be used for commuting. The western end of Henrico County, where I live, has no useful bicycle lanes at all — despite the existence of several potential routes. One bike path could run along the James River (either on the old canal tow-path or a railroad right of way; I’m embarrassed to say, I can’t recall which, but I have it on good authority). Another path conceivably could run underneath a Dominion electric transmission line — not bad, if you don’t mind a little static cling in your hair. A county bike path network also could tie into bike-friendly University of Richmond. And that’s just in my neck of the woods.

    There are scads of lightly traveled subdivision roads that could provide bicycle access if only they connected with one another. Of course, pervasive “pod” subdivision development means that most subdivisions dump traffic onto traffic arterials where even Lance Armstrong would take his life in his hands.

    From what I’ve been told, any effort to build a bicycle network in Henrico would meet resistance from home owners worried about “strange” people riding through their neighborhoods. Yeah, like a burglar will break into your house and make a getaway with your big screen TV loaded on the back of his bicycle! Maybe the brush with $150-per-barrel gasoline, which will surely return when the recession ends, will encourage people to adopt a broader attitude.


  • The Uranium Mining Debate Just Grew a Tentacle

    The debate over uranium mining in Pittsylvania County just got more complicated Tuesday after Virginia Beach City Council was informed that Virginia’s largest city would be at risk of mining operations 200 miles away.

    Director of Public Utilities Thomas Leahy laid out a worst-case scenario: A hurricane or tropical storm could destroy the landfill-like containers that contain the radioactive mining waste, contaminating water supplies downstream as far as Lake Gaston, from which water is piped to Virginia Beach. Norfolk, Chesapeake and occasionally Portsmouth and Suffolk also draw water from the lake, reports Aaron Applegate with the Virginian-Pilot.

    Walter Coles, owner of the land that contains one of North America’s largest uranium deposits, wants to lift a state mining moratorium. The impact of such a decision would ripple across the state. For one, lifting a moratorium for Pittsylvania County would have implications for the mining of uranium in Orange County, site of another large deposit. And now the residents of the state’s second largest metropolitan area are given reason to fear mining.

    On the other hand, uranium mining could create massive wealth for an economically depressed region of the state and add to the growing industry cluster of nuclear industry-related businesses in Virginia. In any fossil fuel-energy constrained scenario of the future, nuclear power will be a growth industry.

    You want a vivid illustration of Ed Risse’s concept of “urban support regions”? You couldn’t ask for a better one. Hampton Roads may be surrounded by water, but it lacks sufficient supplies of fresh water within its own boundaries to supply its population. The region must draw upon its rural hinterlands to slake its thirst. Not only do Norfolk and Chesapeake drain the Roanoke River Basin, the city of Newport News wants to tap the Mattaponi River by means of a reservoir in King William County.

    For a great overview of the Lake Gaston pipeline to Virginia Beach, check out this article. (Image credit of Lake Gaston water pumping station: Virginian-Pilot.)

  • Emmett Hanger’s New Idea: Index the Gas Tax to Average Fuel Economy

    Sen. Emmett Hanger, R-Augusta, has proffered a partial solution for Virginia’s transportation-funding woes: Index the gasoline tax to the average fuel economy of vehicles on state roads.

    According to an editorial in the Staunton News Leader, Hanger has joined the growing number of legislators to worry about the impact of improving gasoline mileage on the primary source of funding for state road maintenance and construction. With the introduction of a slew of new technologies, miles per gallon could well double or triple, and better mileage will translate into commensurately less gasoline consumed and fewer taxes paid at the pump.

    Hanger’s idea provides a rationale for increasing the gasoline tax that tax-phobic citizens just might buy. Annual adjustments, which probably would amount to less than one penny per gallon annually, would help extend the life of the gasoline tax as a funding source. Hanger deserves credit for acknowledging the problem and for trying to think outside the box.

    But the idea still has flaws. First, the incremental added revenue won’t come close to meeting the needs of Virginia’s Business As Usual transportation policy. Perpetuating our one-man-one-car society requires billions of dollars now, far more than could possibly be milked from this tax. Second, by taxing gasoline consumption, the plan would tax those who burn gasoline, not those who crowd the roads. Such a tax would only accelerate the shift to non-gasoline fuels, most notably electricity.

    The biggest problem is that we need to think beyond perpetuating the transportation status quo and think seriously about creating a 21st century transportation system. Funding that system is one critical piece of the puzzle, but only one. Without Fundamental Change in planning land use and transportation policies, Virginia will simply stumble from crisis to crisis — no matter how much it raises in taxes. Hanger’s plan can’t paper over that reality.


  • $3.2 Billion Shortfall — Just Business As Usual

    The grim news just doesn’t quit. From today’s Times-Dispatch:

    The Senate Finance Committee of the Virginia General Assembly is projecting a budget shortfall of at least $3.2 billion for the 2008-10 biennial budget — an even bleaker projection than the $2.5 billion Gov. Timothy M. Kaine had forecast previously.

    Had enough Business As Usual? Tired of “muddling through” by spending more money on the same old failed solutions and shoring up the same old broken institutions?

    Fundamental Change, anyone?

  • When the CFLs Go On

    On Sunday, I drew attention to a power industry-backed study that forecast widespread blackouts and brownouts within a few years unless more electric infrastructure is built. (See “When the Lights Go Out.”) Although I didn’t endorse the findings of the report, I did say that we need to take such fears seriously. We have much to lose if the dire warnings prove true.

    Now comes news that those brownouts and blackouts may not be quite so imminent. The Wall Street Journal reported today that electric utility executives are scratching their heads over shrinking power use by households and businesses in pockets across the country, wondering if they reflect “a permanent shift in consumption” that will force the industry to revise expansion plans predicated on projected one- to two-percent annual growth.

    The decline in consumption cannot be easily explained by weather conditions or even the recession. Duke Energy Corp., for instance, said its Midwest operations saw a 5.9 percent decline in electricity sales in the 3Q compared to same-quarter sales a year before. Said Duke CEO Jim Rogers: “Something fundamental is going on.”

    That something fundamental might be called energy conservation. Consumers have embraced CFL light bulbs on a wide scale. I’ve installed them in about half the lights in my house, and my electric bills have been running lower. They do make a difference. Meanwhile, businesses are spending billions of dollars on building automation systems in projects driven by energy cost savings. The business where my wife works, Tridium, is enjoying a banner year this year, largely on the basis of its software platform used in building automation.

    Dominion wasn’t quoted in the WSJ article, and Virginia may be an exception to the trend. But stuttering electric demand does give heft to the argument advanced by the Piedmont Environmental Council that energy conservation can make a difference here and now, and that Dominion’s projections of intermittent blackouts in Northern Virginia may be flawed. If the PEC is right, there may be no justification for the electric transmission line that Dominion wants so badly to build.

    Virginians don’t follow the metrics of electricity consumption. There is no single benchmark price, like the cost of a barrel of oil, that we can readily latch on to. But we need to start paying attention. We have to thread a narrow, avoiding both overinvesting in electric infrastructure, which runs up our electric rates, and underinvesting, which exposes us to brownouts and blackouts. Either way, we have a lot riding on sound public policy.