• The Bacon’s Rebellion E-zine and the King James Bible

    Fellow bloggers, I apologize for my absence. If I’d been more attentive, I might have been able to smooth things over before the rupture between Peter Galuszka and the new publishers of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine took place (see previous post). Here’s what’s going on.

    Mike Thompson, president of the Jefferson Institute for Public Policy and a long-time contributor to the e-zine, approached me after I ceased publication and offered to take over. (Read his profile and the list of columns he and his associates have written here.) We thought it would be worthwhile to provide a platform for the contributors to the “old” e-zine should they still desire one. Because of my new obligations, I would not have time to edit it, as I used to do, although I might contribute a column from time to time.

    The Jefferson Institute is a Northern Virginia think tank that, like Bacon’s Rebellion, focuses on public policy issues in Virginia. The organization espouses a pragmatic free market/fiscal conservatism approach that I was comfortable with. However, Mike agreed to maintain the open spirit of the e-zine, keeping it open to a wide variety of viewpoints — a key point that I insisted upon and Mike readily agreed to. Although Mike and his team would take over editing and distribution of the e-zine (and posting the e-zine on the website), they have agreed to run any columns past me before publication. I have the right under our agreement to exercise veto rights over any content I deem incompatible with Bacon’s Rebellion brand. I continue to “own” the e-zine. However, the e-zine will bear a tag-line saying, “published by the Jefferson Institute,” or something very similar, to reflect its new role.

    It was my intention to announce the new arrangement in concert with publication of the first edition, which is coming out shortly. I will post the columns to this blog for public comment, as I did for the “old” e-zine.

    Otherwise, there will be no connection between the e-zine and the Bacon’s Rebellion blog, which I continue personally to moderate and contribute to (although my presence has been diminished of late). Neither Mike nor any of his associates have posting rights to the blog, nor have they asked for them. As far as I know, they do not even participant in the comments section of the blog. Peter is free to continue posting to this blog as long as he wants to.

    Some time ago, I issued invitations to participants of the “old” e-zine to contribute to the new publication. Not everyone chose to do so. Norm Leahy, a valued, long-time e-zine columnist and poster to this blog, will not contribute. He is affiliated with Tertium Quids, a conservative, non-partisan advocacy group that has issues with the Jefferson Institute. Several other columnists, including Peter, did agree to participate.

    Peter submitted a column, “RIP to Immigrant Bashers” (which he subsequently posted on this blog). Kiel Stone, the first-line editor, made mainly minor, stylistic edits. As I understand it, he passed on the edited column to Mike, who made the call to delete one particular line referring to the King James Bible as being the preferred version of immigrant bashers. When Peter reviewed the edited version, he took exception to the cut on the grounds of both substance and editorial integrity.

    I was aware of this issue early Friday morning but did not have time at the time to respond thoughtfully. For the record, had I had a chance, I would have urged Mike not to delete the phrase. While I personally regard the King James Bible as one of the greatest works of English literature, and while I can understand how those who would revere it would find the reference offensive, Peter is free to offend whom he pleases. He has legitimate reasons (based on the mis-use of the KJV by nativist groups) for making his statement, so his statement falls within the bounds of reasoned discourse. The whole point of Bacon’s Rebellion is to include a diversity of viewpoints — including sharply expressed views that may make me uncomfortable.

    Unfortunately, while I was at work Friday, a series of emails between Mike and Peter resulted in a breech that would seem impossible to repair. Then Peter went public with his post on this blog, prompting this explanation. So, that’s the story, folks. I apologize for failing to intervene in a timely manner and quietly settle the issue behind the scenes.


  • Warning to BR Bloggers

    As you know Jim Bacon has transferred some or all control (not clear) to the Thomas Jefferson Public Policy Institute, a conservative think tank.

    In all the years I have known Jim, I know that he has stood for the finest values in freedom of speech, the media and of ideas. The Institute does not.

    At their request, I wrote an article for the upcoming e-zine edition. But I didn’t like their editing and protested. Then they censored the item (I managed to post it as a blog item just before this) for the upcoming e-zine saying the “tone” was wrong. I was also told I was off Bacons Rebellion. I didn’t realize they were my new bosses.

    Fellow bloggers, I may not agree with all of you and we’ve had some rather lively exchanges. But I deeply respect all of you and fervently hope you all can maintain the right to express your ideas without filters or “tonality” checks by some politically-charged institute that obviously has its eye on grant money and smooth connections. If this is the case, your good work will become high minded and inoffensive pablum.

    I can’t reach Jim. He never would have done this. But be warned.

    Respectfully and in friendship (Let’s see how long I have access to the blog)

    Peter Galuszka


  • Immigrant Bashers: R.I.P.

    One of the more curious things about Novemberโ€™s election is how immigrant-bashing somehow evaporated as a Republican issue. Even more interesting is that two of the GOPโ€™s biggest immigrant-bashers โ€“ Virgil H. Goode Jr. and Thelma Drake โ€“ are toast.

    This should be an instructive tale as Virginia moves forward into 2009 and tries to deal with some of the far more serious problems, such as dealing with the worst economic crisis in decades and long-neglected issues such as the large number of Virginians who have no health insurance.

    Even the conservative Wall Street Journalโ€™s editorial page noted: โ€œImmigration wasnโ€™t a dominant issue this fall, and other factors contributed to the GOP defeat. But the political reality is that Republicans who thought that channeling Lou Dobbs would save their seats will soon be ex-Members.โ€

    Thatโ€™s a lesson Goode and Drake learned the hard way. Goode, a 12-year incumbent, was trumped in a squeaker by international lawyer and Albemarle County native Tom Perriello. Drake was dumped by Glenn Nye.

    Of the pair, Goode was especially obnoxious. He brought shame and ridicule to the Old Dominion in 2006 by writing on U.S. House of Representatives stationery that unless his hard-right immigration policies, including rescinding current law that children of illegal immigrants born in the U.S. can be U.S. citizens, we will see the influx of undesirables, namely people of the Muslim faith. โ€œIf Americans donโ€™t wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration there likely will be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Koran,โ€ he wrote.

    So much for religious tolerance. But in his letter, Goode also showed his unspeakable ignorance since the issue had to do with whether a newly-elected Muslim Congressman from the Midwest would be sworn in on the Bible (presumably the King James Version, the preferred one for bashers). Turns out no Congressmen are sworn in โ€œon the Bible.โ€

    Then Goode made idiotic comments that Mexican restaurants shouldnโ€™t display the Mexican flag. Whatโ€™s next, a ban on the Irish tri-colors outside an Irish bar?

    Not that Goode didnโ€™t have other problems. He was linked to a defense contracting scandal that sent fellow Republican Randy Cunningham to prison. The San Diego political and former jet fighter ace in the Vietnam War was convicted for helping get contracts for MZM, Inc., a higher tech national security firm, which gave $88,000 to Goode in political contributions although the firm had nothing to do with Goodeโ€™s District. Goode said he redistributed those funds to non-profits.

    During his bitter campaign against Perriello, Goode tried to paint the Virginia native and long-time resident of Albemarle County as a Yankee outlander with a funny-sounding, Italian last name. In fact, Perriello is a respected international lawyer and Yale grad who has done lots of work in complex legal issues involving Darfur, Sierra Leone, and Afghanistan. The โ€œNew York lawyer,โ€ as Goodeโ€™s campaign branded him, won by 745 votes.

    Thelma Drake is a kind of Goode-lite. Also an immigrant-basher, she supported such proposals as making it illegal to spend federal money to alert the Mexican government about movements of the Minutemen, a kind of yea-hoo vigilante outfit of anti-immigrant volunteers who, armed with deer rifles, CB radios, night vision glasses and binoculars, take it upon themselves to โ€œpatrolโ€ the Southwestern borders.

    Now if you want to consider someone who actually knows something about the immigration issue, look at Arizona Governor and former U.S. Attorney Janet Napolitano who has just been picked by President-elect Barack Obama as his candidate for Homeland Security.

    Napolitano is not at all in favor of illegal immigration and has the smarts to realize what a complex issue it is. As she told the National Press Club in 2007: โ€œIt is too easy for the โ€˜bad guysโ€™ to enter our country and too difficult for the โ€˜good guysโ€™ โ€“ whose energies and intellects we need โ€“ to obtain lawful status.โ€

    Vigilance is needed since in 2006, during one 24-hour period, an estimated 4,000 immigrants would cross into her state illegally. That number dropped by a third with the arrival of National Guard units.

    But simply taking a Rambo-stance wonโ€™t work. She notes that her state is Mexicoโ€™s biggest trading partner by far โ€“ representing some $4 billion worth of goods โ€“ especially with the bordering Mexican state of Sonora. โ€œI spend more time working with the Governor of Sonora than I spend with any U.S. governor,โ€ she said.

    The visa system is in desperate need to revision, she said. For example, according to todayโ€™s system, the Dominican Republic, with 8 million people, is granted per capita more visas than Mexico with a population of 100 million. โ€œNo wonder it takes, on average, more than 10 years to get a legal immigrant visa from Mexico โ€“ talk about an incentive to cross illegally.โ€

    Mind you, these are the ideas of a woman who actually knows something about the immigration issue, not Goode nor Drake. To both of them: good riddance!

    Peter Galuszka


  • THANKSGIVING PERSPECTIVE

    The economic and political โ€˜newsโ€™ via MainStream Media during the week before Thanksgiving 2008 provided a strong incentive to give fervent thanks. But perhaps not the thanks that some think.

    First some context:

    In the early 1970s EMRโ€™s and his Clustermates worked hard to elect a โ€œreform / changeโ€ candidate for County Executive in Howard County, Maryland. Our candidate won. EMR received a plum political appointment (an unsalaried commission chairpersonship) and a broad range of very useful experiences.

    The citizens of Howard County, however, did not fare as well. The new County Exec spent the next four years proving that he would NOT do what his opposition warned he would do if he was elected โ€“ and what those who voted for him hoped he would do if he was elected.

    There was no Fundamental Transformation under the new Exec. He was not reelected to a second term because he had only partially satisfied those who voted against him in the first election and frustrated those who voted for him. He tried to satisfy all the voters instead of taking the actions that were necessary to achieve a sustainable trajectory for the Communities that are all or part in Howard County.

    The time frame was a pivotal one in the evolution of the Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region. The Planned New Community of Columbia, MD is located in Howard County. Due to county actions and inactions, many aspects of James Rouseโ€™s vision for Columbia were least-common-denominatored into oblivion and lost forever. Now Reston is cited as THE place in the Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region which demonstrates that there is an alternative to dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See superficial but accurate story โ€œThe Often-Imitated Reston Eyes Future With Trepidation,โ€ 28 November 2008 in WaPo. (We say โ€œsuperficialโ€ because to really address this issue would require the entire Section A โ€˜news hole.โ€™ That is not possible. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    EMR lived for nearly a decade in Columbia (1972-1980) and in Reston (1980-1988). Both have become less than their potential but the biggest lost opportunity occurred in Columbia while โ€œourโ€ candidate was County Exec. During that time there was an opportunity to use Community actions in the context of the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo to provide examples that could have been springboards toward a sustainable future. The opportunities were squandered.

    Fast forward to the last week of November in 2008. The handwriting is on the wall.

    There is a palpable optimism in Greater Warrenton-Fauquier, in the Commonwealth of Virginia and in the US of A. Citizens believe they have reason to hope there will be โ€œchange we can believe in,โ€ change for the better. This optimism is evidenced by the celebration in Grant Park, the demand for tickets to Inauguration events and in animated conversations on Main Street.

    There are signs of optimism are based on some of the President-Elects initial statements and promised nominations. The stock market was up before Thanksgiving on the speculation that there will be more bailouts.

    It should be noted that not all the views are positive. There are those who fear real change and they are portraying the prospect of Obama led change with a negative spin. Politics-As-Usual advocates are filling partisan blogs with demeaning observations on every action, rumor or illusion that can be misinterpreted to generate fear. The most frightening head line? Karl Rove says Obama is doing a good job because he is picking โ€œexperiencedโ€ political operatives.

    But what is REALLY happening?

    The optimism is based on the assumption that the next administration, lead by an economic team of retreads will return the economy to one driven by Mass OverConsumption driven and that these actions will โ€˜saveโ€™ and create jobs for the unmotivated and under-qualified consumers.

    The problem is that every action to build consumer confidence and increase consumption will make it harder to achieve sustainable trajectory for First World civilization.

    Buying new Autonomobiles will only reinforce dysfunctional human settlement patterns. Bailing out mortgages on Wrong Size Houses in the Wrong Locations will only encourage more unsecured lending and the development of even more dysfunctional settlement patterns.

    While the recent โ€˜teamโ€™ announcements generate optimism about a bigger cornucopia of even more bailouts, citizens should have grave reservations about the appointments announced to date.
    These are the same politics-as-usual โ€˜playersโ€™ who made the decisions that put the economy in meltdown.

    They do not understand the importance of human settlement patterns. They do not understand the roll of Autonomobiles in creating the Mobility and Access Crisis. Members of the transportation team (Downey, Garvey, Heminger, Oberstar and the rest) have spent their entire working life making the mistakes that have resulted in a failed and crumbling Mobility and Access System.

    The US of A has grossly OVER INVESTED in and OVER-SUBSIDIZED Air Travel capacity on the assumption that demand will grow without regard to the total cost and environmental impact. Rising costs โ€“ including finally paying for environmental impact โ€“ is putting air travel out of the reach of most. The inconvenience of anti-terrorism measures makes air travel a pain for all but those who fly in private planes. โ€œSee The End of Flight As We Knew It.โ€ (As an aside, there is painful irony in United Airlines betting on rising fuel costs in the short run. Why again are โ€˜futuresโ€™ not just another form of anti-Community gambling?)

    The US of A has grossly UNDER INVESTED in functional IntraRegional and InterRegional shared-vehicle ground transport that would support functional and sustainable settlement patterns.

    The US of A has grossly OVER INVESTED and OVER-SUBSIDIZED Autonomobility on the false assumption that Large, Private Vehicles could provide Mobility and Access in spite of a laundry list of obvious problems. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.

    The vast majority of citizens live in a handful of MegaRegions โ€“ conterminous New Urban Regions โ€“ for which the Autonomobile and Large, Private Vehicle Roadway Systems is the problem, not the solution for Mobility and Access.

    The transport infrastructure is failing โ€“ there is a Mobility and Access Crisis and the facilities are falling apart. Big construction projects to produce jobs will just mean more investment in the wrong systems and will not provide sustainable Mobility and Access and will not support unsustainable human settlement patterns.

    The new economic โ€˜teamโ€™ still does not understand the impact of the housing market on the economy. Few admit the impact of the Wrong Size House in the Wrong Location in the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the Mobility and Access Crisis.

    Here is a quote from Chapter 22 of BRIDGES now in final draft:

    โ€œOut of all this, three clippings stand out:

    1. โ€œBernake: Thereโ€™s No Housing Bubble to Go Bustโ€ in WaPo Business Section 27 October 2005

    2. โ€œHousing Cool-Down Is โ€˜Orderly,โ€™ Fed Chief (Bernake) Saysโ€ in WaPo Business Section, 19 May 2006

    3. โ€œFed Chief (Bernake) Says Housing Problems Wonโ€™t Spread to Rest of Economyโ€ on Page C4 of the 29 March 2007 New York Times.

    The first quote was from a few days before President Bush nominated Bernake to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The bottom line is that the โ€œleadersโ€ at the federal level did not have a clue what was happening.โ€

    They still do not know what happened or what will result from pumping more cheap money into shelter related Enterprises before everyone understand the importance of evolving functional human settlement patterns.

    The economic rescue squad is burning
    through the $700-billion bailout war chest but handing it out to whom so ever threatens to go under. Student loan sharks are the latest โ€˜victims.โ€™

    Here is a great vignette: In the 30 November Wapo (Close to Home) a state senator from Maryland says: โ€œEffective Stimulus? Think Local, Mr. Obama.โ€ Jim Bacon frequently rails about municipal Agency waste and here is a specific. Senator Rosapepe wants federal money to help pay for CROSSING GUARDS.

    The reason crossing guards are needed is because children cannot walk safely to school. Why? Dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See note on Columbia and Reston above. Both these still Beta Communities demonstrated how to have safe pathways to schools, the library and the store โ€“ including โ€œeyes on the pathโ€ โ€“ forty years ago. Columbiaโ€™s system deteriorated because the School Board scrapped Neighborhood schools and build too many too large shopping venues as noted in The Shape of the Future. Wherever one turns it is THE SETTLEMENT PATTERN STUPID.

    The head line reads โ€œThe Car of the Future โ€“ But at What Cost? Hybrid Vehicles Are Popular, but Making Them, Profitable Is a Challenge.โ€ What nonsense! There is a sure way to make any product profitable: Raise price to cover expenses plus profit. But for Large, Private Vehicles โ€“ regardless of the source of power โ€“ raising the price means far fewer will be able to afford Autonomobiles. That means the Autonomobile Enterprises will not be able to use most of their overbuilt capacity based on the false assumption that Autonomobiles would provide Mobility and Access.

    And all that new technology? The more complex the vehicle, the more it costs. Most citizens would need nothing more than their feet, a bike, a Segway, a Vespa or a Golf Cart for all their travel IF THERE WERE FUNCTIONAL SETTLEMENT PATTERNS.

    EMR noted in a recent blog post:

    โ€œThe cost of energy in all forms โ€“ and all goods and services that use energy โ€“ is going up.

    โ€œBurning thru easy-to-access Natural Capital and borrowing from foreign suppliers has kept the cost of energy and all that energy cost impact artificially low.

    โ€œAlready the cost of energy has ended The Age of Accessible Air Travel (Terrorism has ended convenient Air Travel at any cost.) See โ€œThe End of Flight As We Have Known It.โ€

    โ€œThe end of The Age of Autonomobiles, The Age of Big, Scattered Dwellings and other examples of Mass OverConsumption is in sight.

    โ€œSo is the end of a lot of other things.โ€

    The only question is can citizens come to understand the need for Fundamental Transformations fast enough to implement them before there are not enough resources left to make the Transformation.

    The Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday headlines on the economy and the governance transition have been over-washed by the attacks in Mumbai, Bangkok and Wal*Mart. No one will know for months if the stock market โ€˜good newsโ€™ and the cut rate โ€˜doorbustersโ€™ stimulated the economy but if they did, that just makes things worse.

    What does the administration do to โ€œsave jobsโ€ in an dysfunctional economy? Stimulating consumption is not the answer.

    What is really need are sustainable ways to use the US of Aโ€™s greatest surplus resource. That resource is citizens who are not very bright and not very motivated. They:

    โ€ข Slept through the important parts of high school

    โ€ข Want to be entertained rather that create their own active, healthful recreation

    โ€ข Almost all have made location and consumption decisions that they thought were in their best interest, but cumulatively these actions contribute to the growing economic, social and physical dysfunction

    Because they happen to be born in US of A they believe โ€œsomeoneโ€ owes them a comfortable life of consumption and entertainment. They are not willing to work at the jobs that those that are attractive to those who are bright, resourceful and were unfortunate enough to have been born in some other nation-state.

    There is plenty of challenge and opportunity for the bright and the motivated, it is the vast majority of the Running As Hard As They Cans and most of the Losing Grounds in the bottom 90 percent of the Ziggurat that need reorientation and something productive to do.

    Telling a large percentage of the population they are fat, under-educated and slothful is not a way to get elected or reelected. โ€œLeadingโ€ the citizens out of their self-created wilderness of sloth, indulgence and dysfunctional ways may not be possible with dwindling resources.

    It has taken EMR 40 years to develop the comprehensive Conceptual Framework and the Vocabulary to articulate what should have been obvious to all in 1973. Having those tools in Howard County in 1974 would have been useful. Now the entire nation-state is sliding to the edge and no one is interested in anything but getting back to Mass OverConsumption.

    This post opened with a reference to the economic political news during the last week of November and suggested that this news provided reason to give thanks.

    Some think a rebounding stock market, lower mortgage interest rates and lower gas prices to encourage more holiday travel were cause for optimism.

    Wrong.

    The reason for giving thanks this season is:

    Most of us born before World War II will be gone before the full impact of sloth, indulgence, consumption and corruption that has led to Mass OverConsumption and settlement pattern dysfunction turns out most of the lights and humans are left with the challenge of making draconian Transformations and few, very expensive resources with which to make them.

    EMR hopes you had a nice Thanksgiving too.

    EMR


  • It Takes More than Awesome Bicycles to Make Biking a Viable Transportation Option

    It’s going to take a lot more than cool new commuter bikes like the one pictured here to persuade more people to use bicycles for transportation, not just recreation, in the Richmond region. It would be helpful if Virginia jurisdictions designed balanced communities where a variety of destinations were located within easy biking distance. In the case of my home county of Henrico, it would be helpful to actually have bicycle paths.

    But every innovation helps, even if it comes from the people who design bicycles rather than communities. According to the Cycling for Boomers blog, Wisconsin-based Trek, the largest U.S.-based bike manufacturer, this year is introducing two chainless models that replace the clunky, maintenance-intensive chain with a greaseless, rust-proof carbon fiber belt.

    The lighter, longer-lasting carbon-fiber composite belts can’t be cut, won’t stretch or slip and won’t leave grease marks around your ankles, says Eric Bjorling, Trek’s lifestyle brand manager. There is one drawback: One of these bad boys retails for $990.

    Price aside, I doubt we’ll see many of these in Richmond. The city has some super-cool mountain biking trails around the river, but only a handful of bicycle lanes that could be used for commuting. The western end of Henrico County, where I live, has no useful bicycle lanes at all — despite the existence of several potential routes. One bike path could run along the James River (either on the old canal tow-path or a railroad right of way; I’m embarrassed to say, I can’t recall which, but I have it on good authority). Another path conceivably could run underneath a Dominion electric transmission line — not bad, if you don’t mind a little static cling in your hair. A county bike path network also could tie into bike-friendly University of Richmond. And that’s just in my neck of the woods.

    There are scads of lightly traveled subdivision roads that could provide bicycle access if only they connected with one another. Of course, pervasive “pod” subdivision development means that most subdivisions dump traffic onto traffic arterials where even Lance Armstrong would take his life in his hands.

    From what I’ve been told, any effort to build a bicycle network in Henrico would meet resistance from home owners worried about “strange” people riding through their neighborhoods. Yeah, like a burglar will break into your house and make a getaway with your big screen TV loaded on the back of his bicycle! Maybe the brush with $150-per-barrel gasoline, which will surely return when the recession ends, will encourage people to adopt a broader attitude.


  • The Uranium Mining Debate Just Grew a Tentacle

    The debate over uranium mining in Pittsylvania County just got more complicated Tuesday after Virginia Beach City Council was informed that Virginia’s largest city would be at risk of mining operations 200 miles away.

    Director of Public Utilities Thomas Leahy laid out a worst-case scenario: A hurricane or tropical storm could destroy the landfill-like containers that contain the radioactive mining waste, contaminating water supplies downstream as far as Lake Gaston, from which water is piped to Virginia Beach. Norfolk, Chesapeake and occasionally Portsmouth and Suffolk also draw water from the lake, reports Aaron Applegate with the Virginian-Pilot.

    Walter Coles, owner of the land that contains one of North America’s largest uranium deposits, wants to lift a state mining moratorium. The impact of such a decision would ripple across the state. For one, lifting a moratorium for Pittsylvania County would have implications for the mining of uranium in Orange County, site of another large deposit. And now the residents of the state’s second largest metropolitan area are given reason to fear mining.

    On the other hand, uranium mining could create massive wealth for an economically depressed region of the state and add to the growing industry cluster of nuclear industry-related businesses in Virginia. In any fossil fuel-energy constrained scenario of the future, nuclear power will be a growth industry.

    You want a vivid illustration of Ed Risse’s concept of “urban support regions”? You couldn’t ask for a better one. Hampton Roads may be surrounded by water, but it lacks sufficient supplies of fresh water within its own boundaries to supply its population. The region must draw upon its rural hinterlands to slake its thirst. Not only do Norfolk and Chesapeake drain the Roanoke River Basin, the city of Newport News wants to tap the Mattaponi River by means of a reservoir in King William County.

    For a great overview of the Lake Gaston pipeline to Virginia Beach, check out this article. (Image credit of Lake Gaston water pumping station: Virginian-Pilot.)

  • Emmett Hanger’s New Idea: Index the Gas Tax to Average Fuel Economy

    Sen. Emmett Hanger, R-Augusta, has proffered a partial solution for Virginia’s transportation-funding woes: Index the gasoline tax to the average fuel economy of vehicles on state roads.

    According to an editorial in the Staunton News Leader, Hanger has joined the growing number of legislators to worry about the impact of improving gasoline mileage on the primary source of funding for state road maintenance and construction. With the introduction of a slew of new technologies, miles per gallon could well double or triple, and better mileage will translate into commensurately less gasoline consumed and fewer taxes paid at the pump.

    Hanger’s idea provides a rationale for increasing the gasoline tax that tax-phobic citizens just might buy. Annual adjustments, which probably would amount to less than one penny per gallon annually, would help extend the life of the gasoline tax as a funding source. Hanger deserves credit for acknowledging the problem and for trying to think outside the box.

    But the idea still has flaws. First, the incremental added revenue won’t come close to meeting the needs of Virginia’s Business As Usual transportation policy. Perpetuating our one-man-one-car society requires billions of dollars now, far more than could possibly be milked from this tax. Second, by taxing gasoline consumption, the plan would tax those who burn gasoline, not those who crowd the roads. Such a tax would only accelerate the shift to non-gasoline fuels, most notably electricity.

    The biggest problem is that we need to think beyond perpetuating the transportation status quo and think seriously about creating a 21st century transportation system. Funding that system is one critical piece of the puzzle, but only one. Without Fundamental Change in planning land use and transportation policies, Virginia will simply stumble from crisis to crisis — no matter how much it raises in taxes. Hanger’s plan can’t paper over that reality.


  • $3.2 Billion Shortfall — Just Business As Usual

    The grim news just doesn’t quit. From today’s Times-Dispatch:

    The Senate Finance Committee of the Virginia General Assembly is projecting a budget shortfall of at least $3.2 billion for the 2008-10 biennial budget — an even bleaker projection than the $2.5 billion Gov. Timothy M. Kaine had forecast previously.

    Had enough Business As Usual? Tired of “muddling through” by spending more money on the same old failed solutions and shoring up the same old broken institutions?

    Fundamental Change, anyone?

  • When the CFLs Go On

    On Sunday, I drew attention to a power industry-backed study that forecast widespread blackouts and brownouts within a few years unless more electric infrastructure is built. (See “When the Lights Go Out.”) Although I didn’t endorse the findings of the report, I did say that we need to take such fears seriously. We have much to lose if the dire warnings prove true.

    Now comes news that those brownouts and blackouts may not be quite so imminent. The Wall Street Journal reported today that electric utility executives are scratching their heads over shrinking power use by households and businesses in pockets across the country, wondering if they reflect “a permanent shift in consumption” that will force the industry to revise expansion plans predicated on projected one- to two-percent annual growth.

    The decline in consumption cannot be easily explained by weather conditions or even the recession. Duke Energy Corp., for instance, said its Midwest operations saw a 5.9 percent decline in electricity sales in the 3Q compared to same-quarter sales a year before. Said Duke CEO Jim Rogers: “Something fundamental is going on.”

    That something fundamental might be called energy conservation. Consumers have embraced CFL light bulbs on a wide scale. I’ve installed them in about half the lights in my house, and my electric bills have been running lower. They do make a difference. Meanwhile, businesses are spending billions of dollars on building automation systems in projects driven by energy cost savings. The business where my wife works, Tridium, is enjoying a banner year this year, largely on the basis of its software platform used in building automation.

    Dominion wasn’t quoted in the WSJ article, and Virginia may be an exception to the trend. But stuttering electric demand does give heft to the argument advanced by the Piedmont Environmental Council that energy conservation can make a difference here and now, and that Dominion’s projections of intermittent blackouts in Northern Virginia may be flawed. If the PEC is right, there may be no justification for the electric transmission line that Dominion wants so badly to build.

    Virginians don’t follow the metrics of electricity consumption. There is no single benchmark price, like the cost of a barrel of oil, that we can readily latch on to. But we need to start paying attention. We have to thread a narrow, avoiding both overinvesting in electric infrastructure, which runs up our electric rates, and underinvesting, which exposes us to brownouts and blackouts. Either way, we have a lot riding on sound public policy.

  • FURTHER NOTE ON HOUSING

    On 9 November we posted โ€œWRONG SIZE HOUSE, WRONG LOCATION.

    Subsequently, we promised to add a note in response to several comments. The original string is now 48 comments long, many of them not related to the core issue. So we will start over.

    Groveton asked: โ€œWhat makes a right location?โ€ โ€œRight locationโ€ is not determined by what any one person or Household does, it is determined by what everyone in the Community does to achieve Balance.

    Groveton puts it this way: โ€œ… whether my house is in the right location seems to depend a lot on whether my job is in the right location.โ€

    That is a start but it is not just the house and the job that matters.

    It is Balance of J / H / S / R / A that matters. It is all the elements required to assemble a quality life. As many of the elements as possible that are needed to make you happy and safe should be โ€œin the best locations.โ€ As a backup there needs to be a shared vehicle system to get you to a few high value places that do not fit in the Village-scale station area or in the Community โ€“ say a job in the Zentrum, the Regional train station, stadium or concert hall.

    Lets us assume one has a job and a home that are in convenient proximity. Next thing you know, children are on the horizon. The question that the partners must ask is not โ€œwhere is the best school?โ€

    The questionS are:

    What can we do with those in my Dooryard and Cluster to crate the best environment for infants and toddlers?

    What can we do with those in my Neighborhood to create the best environment and education for our grade schoolers?

    What can we do with those in my Village to create the best environment and education for our junior and senior high schoolers?

    What can we do with those in my Community to create the best environment and community Agencies and Institutions โ€“ including a Community college for all of us?

    Ask not where to go to find a ________, ask how can we can create great ________s in this Community.

    You say you move too often and change living patterns too often to make this work?

    You may think you are still living in the past when burning through Natural Capital paid for a much wider range of choice and the level of excess which is reflected in the widening wealth gap, the financial crisis, food insecurity, energy dependence, etc., and, of course, dysfunctional settlement patterns.

    In fact there never was a time when this โ€œgo where and when I wantโ€ strategy worked for more than a few at the top of the Ziggurat. It seemed like it a few decades ago but that was a temporary illusion driven by advertising and living off of cheap energy and foreign debt.

    The Large, Private Vehicle Mobility Myth is that a Household can live where they want, seek employment where they want and then Agencies can provide a Mobility and Access system that allows everyone to go wherever they what, whenever they want and arrive in a timely manner.

    Larry Gross asks again about โ€œdata.โ€ We will get to data (again) in a further note as promised in UPON FURTHER REVIEW.

    TMT said โ€œAs I understand the rule, if you take a job on the Hill, you should sell your house…โ€

    Well that is a problem. Some will be able to do that, not everyone.

    TMT, let us be clear the โ€œRuleโ€ is โ€œpay the full location variable cost and you can do what you want.โ€

    However, given humans โ€“ especially in the US of A โ€“ have burned through so much of their Natural Capital they will find the choices going forward are constrained by the market and by democratic processes โ€“ if humans are fortunate enough to preserve democracy and a market economy in the face of declining resources and growing demand by those who have been left behind by past actions.

    If you think there are too many taxes now, just wait until you finally get around to costing out the true location-variable tab for the life style you espouse as a right.

    The choice is intelligent and Fundamental Transformation or

    Collapse.

    Failure to prepare for the future and failure to reconsider traditional practices when conditions change is the prelude to Collapse.

    As you may have noted, conditions HAVE changed.

    It is depressing that Large, Private Vehicles and the Wrong Size Houses in the Wrong Location โ€“ places like Mountain Home โ€“ are the primary drivers of dysfunctional human settlement patterns. In spite of this reality, they have been used to โ€œrecoverโ€ from every recession since The Great Depression.

    Now, when it should be clear to all that a new perspective is needed to achieve a sustainable trajectory for civilization, all the โ€œleadershipโ€ is talking about is bailing out Detroit and propping up a flawed financial system exposed by the mortgage, derivative and default swap meltdown.

    EMR


  • UPON FURTHER REVIEW

    In late September and early October EMR posted four notes on the prospect of obtaining a sustainable trajectory for civilization. These posts generated an inordinate number of unfounded, negative comments. Since Jim Bacon has taken on new responsibilities, he no longer has time for comments such as โ€œ… I have been editing EMRโ€™s work for X years and never once have I seen him suggest …โ€ Without these admonitions, the attacks have become more pointed, more personal and farther from the topic of the post.

    Based on the tone and content of the comments it appeared useful to more carefully analyze the responses to the four posts: โ€œFundamental Transformationโ€ (21 September 2008), โ€œToward a Sustainable Trajectoryโ€ (29 September 2008), โ€œObstacles on the Path to a Sustainable Trajectoryโ€ (3 October 2008), and โ€œWorth Noting Againโ€ (3 October 2008).

    For reasons noted previously on this Blog, EMR does not read all the comments so did not have a full grasp of how far comments had deteriorated. A comment by comment analysis found there was no basis for many of the attacks and no indication that most commentors had tried to understand or even read the material posted and cited.

    The majority โ€“ but not all โ€“ of the comments had the sole intent on discounting, discrediting and belittling. They included inaccurate summaries of web searches, links to sparky and irrelevant material and gratuitous diagnosis of psychiatric disorders.

    A NEW APPROACH

    SYNERGY is in the final stages of editing TRILO-G for publication. At this point there is a need for short sections and supplemental text to tie current events to the larger context โ€“ the exploration of the economic, social and physical ramifications of functional and dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

    After a review of the comments following the four posts noted above it was determined that it would speed up the pre-publication editing process if unedited first drafts of TRILO-G material was posted on the blog.

    The trial posts included โ€œIt is Elementary,โ€ (10 October 2008), โ€œThe Role of the Media,โ€ (11 October 2008), โ€œSwift Boating the Mortgage Crisis,โ€ (12 October 2008) and โ€œThe Bottom Line,โ€ 13 October 2008). Other drafts material has also been posted.

    Why would someone post these drafts?

    This is the free market at work. Posting these drafts is the cheapest and fastest way to sniff out passages and topics that could become targets of intentional misrepresentations and distortions.

    TRILO-G is being published with staff support and half a dozen colleagues who read and comment on the material in draft form. None of these reviewers can identify sentences and paragraphs that need armoring against unfounded criticism as fast as Bacons Rebellion commentors.

    Posting the draft material is far more efficient than paying additional staff or hiring focus group managers to help sniff out material that is subject to unfounded attack. Bacons Rebellion commentors possess a well honed ability to identify statements that can be maliciously misinterpreted.

    The results of the experiment have been spectacular! Thank you.

    The statements that have been shown to be vulnerable to intentional misinterpretations and distortions have been and will revised / restated before the Beta draft appears. The content of the four posts noted above will become part of Chapter 29, in a section titled โ€œIt Is the Settlement Pattern, Stupid.โ€ Other post will become parts of chapters throughout the text.

    THE LARGER QUESTIONS

    Having turned lemons to lemonade several larger questions remain. These questions are important if one is to develop an educational program to help citizens understand human settlement patterns and obtaining a sustainable trajectory for society.

    What is the motivation for these attacks?

    It this a problem with this Blog, with Blogging in general or with all media?

    First, how can one be sure that many are intentional misinterpretations and distortions and not just statements of uniformed or misinformed personal opinion? A careful reading suggests that a few do not bother to address the subject of the post and almost no one addresses the core idea. Commentors most often pick a phrase or sentence and then attack. They appear to be sure anything EMR presents is wrong so any attack is justified.

    EMR knows from direct feedback that many readers do understand but that is not what comes across in th comments. Some who understand say they do not want to be subject to slings and arrows of the flamers.

    It is clear that Flamers desire a forum. There will always be 20 percent who claim the Earth is flat and they find a place to express their views in Blog comments.

    In a larger context this “vocal minority” may be a root cause the He Said / She Said โ€œjournalismโ€ of MainStream Media profiled in THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    (Favorite quote of the weekend: โ€œThe publicโ€™s frankly gotten frustrated with the conventional of objectivity, the idea that you (journalists) have to present both side of the story, even if one side is completely bogus.โ€ In WaPo Magazine โ€œOnion Nation.โ€)

    In response to the heap of negative comments there are a number of other observations that will be posted from time to time.

    In the meantime, here is an example of a brief section of draft material that has been added to Chapter 3:

    ………………

    STRAWPERSONS โ€“ RED HERRING EMPLOYED IN DEFENSE OF MYTHS

    Beyond the three well articulated diversions noted above there is an avalanche of strawpersons; Red herring tossed up to divert attention from Myths.

    One favorite from the realm of blogging is โ€œThe Pregnant Mother of Twoโ€ championed by Blogger Bob. This strawperson was put forth to justify Autonomobile dominated settlement patterns that would facilitate The Pregnant Mother of Two driving to a supermarket in a Large, Private Vehicle. If anything impedes the use of Large, Private Vehicles it would be a gross affront to civilized society in the view of Blogger Bob because it would make life miserable for The Pregnant Mother of Two.

    Shall we consider the real world?

    A far smaller percentage of citizens are pregnant at any given time than the percentage who are always isolated by near exclusive dependence on the autonomobile for Access and Mobility.

    This reality becomes even more critical as the population ages. Even more important, the number who are isolated by Autocentric settlement patterns rises dramatically as the cost of Autonomobility rises.

    Even the most rudimentary calculation of alternative settlement pattern costs demonstrate that it would be far cheaper a build a special environment for pregnant women to shop for necessities than to create millions of acres of dysfunctional settlement patterns.

    One could design a Community-serving hyper*mart with isles wide enough to drive to car-window-accessible shelves. The subsidy to make this facility available to certified pregnant women would be paid for by the vast savings due to functional settlement patterns in the rest of the Community. The general public could shop in the Pregnant Woman Center if they paid the full cost. This would work just like the justification for HOT lanes. One can just imagine the opportunities for public private partnerships…

    But wait, the Pregnant Mothers of Two can now shop by phone and have the goods delivered. And what is the responsibility to support the Household of the person who got her pregnant? Oh, right, he is so busy overcoming dysfunctional settlement patterns he has no time to help out.

    The questions are endless but irrelevant when one understands that it would
    be far more effective and far more efficient to evolve functional settlement patterns Community-wide.

    A functional environment would be better for all women โ€“ pregnant or not โ€“ and for all small children โ€“ with or without a pregnant mother. The bottom line it would be better for everyone. This better alternative of functional human settlement patterns is explored in the โ€œsocial impact chaptersโ€ (8 and 9) of The Shape of the Future and specifically in the discussion of โ€œIt takes a Villageโ€ in Chapter 9, Box 3. Also see โ€œA Yard Where Johnny Can Run and Play,โ€ 1 December 2003.

    If Blogger Bob would bother to run the numbers, he would understand the need for functional human settlement patterns. Does he do that? No, he parades out The Pregnant Mother of Two who in his mind must be given the opportunity drive a Large, Private Vehicle to a big parking lot outside a store to get provisions for her family regardless of the cumulative consequences.

    This is typical of the strawperson tossed up to obfuscate attempts to eliminate settlement pattern Myths.

    ……………

    By the way, if you did not pass the Monday Morning Test you may not understand.

    More responses in due course.

    EMR


  • MONDAY MORNING TEST

    Google Map search for Mountain House, California and Waterloo, Iowa (Tks to Larry Gross for a great example)

    Background: Mountain House is the new poster child of Wrong House, Wrong Location and underwater mortgages (90% or 95% depending on source.) Both Mountain House and Waterloo are in agricultural regions that are among the most productive on the planet.

    If from these two maps do not make:

    Clear Edge
    Critical Mass
    Balanced Community
    New Urban Region
    Mobility and Access Crisis
    Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis
    Helter Skelter Crisis
    Sustainable human settlement patterns

    very clear to you, please do not vote or invest until you have overcome Geographic Illiteracy.

    Until a majority of US of A citizens can understand these eight concepts, political leaders will have no choice but to promise economic growth instead of sustainable trajectory for society.

    EMR


  • Let the Sun Shine In!

    Virginia state government has taken another big step towards transparency thanks to the publication today of the Virginia Public Access Project’s redesigned website. VPAP provides a deeper, richer database of campaign contributions and lobbying activity, and it’s searchable in more ways than ever.

    Click on the profile for Attorney General Bob McDonnell, candidate for governor, and you have a choice of tabs for viewing his data by top donors (Mark J. Kington, $28,500), top industries (real estate developers, $63,301), top vendors (Commonwealth Consultants, $56,634), and top services (staff, political consultants, $148,459).

    So, you wonder who this Mark Kington fellow is. Click on his name, and you reach his profile. He’s an Alexandria-based venture capitalist (and former business partner of U.S. Sen.-elect Mark Warner, although the database doesn’t tell you that).

    Back to the McDonnell profile, and you can click on a tab that provides all previous election results, all campaign financing committees associated with the candidate, and expenditure info as detailed as the fact that he has spent $1,671 at Sine Irish Pub (a great place to grab a beer or dinner near the state capitol, by the way).

    Legislator data goes deeper than ever before, providing easy access to the lawmaker’s financial disclosure information: salary (within broad monetary ranges), corporate affiliations, personal liabilities, investments, privately funded payments for trips, taxpayer funded payment for trips, gifts, business interests and more.

    Once upon a time, this information resided only in dusty government offices in Richmond. It was a pain to access, even if you were a journalist or lobbyist and had the time to rummage through the documents. As a practical matter, transparency was limited. Now the information is all online where any citizen can get to it 24/7. Let the sun shine in, baby, let the sun shine in.


  • When the Lights Go Out

    Electricity is something we all take forgranted — until we don’t have it. Then our society breaks down.

    That’s why we ought to pay attention to a recent study, “Lights Out in 2009,” published by the NextGen Energy Council. That organization is supported by the electric utility industry, the coal industry and other players with a vested interest in growing the electric industry, so we need to take its conclusions with a grain of salt. However, if NextGen is even close to being right, the U.S. faces massive disruptions within the next few years that will make the today’s concerns about the impact of Global Warming in 2010 seem absurdly remote.

    Here’s the argument in a nutshell: Since the early 1990s, baseload generation reserve margins have declined precipitously from 30-40 percent to 17 percent in 2007. Compounding the problem, a disparity between growth in electric demand and capacity could shrink those margins by another 10 percent by 2016. Margins of 12-15 percent are deemed the minimum required to safeguard against brownouts and blackouts.

    According to NextGen, the shortage of generating capacity will be compounded by insufficient transmission capacity — the ability to get electricity to where it’s needed. Some areas are likely to be hit sooner and harder than others. California and the Rocky Mountain states are in deep doodoo, and the northeast urban corridor, including Washington, D.C., are in mid-waist doodoo.

    Nationally, NextGen estimates that the U.S. will need to install $250 billion of new generating capacity and $80 billion of new transmission capacity by 2016 to avoid power disruptions costing the economy a guesstimated $80 billion a year. That capacity is not being built, the organization contends, because (a) virtually every project is blocked or delayed by lawsuits, and (b) state regulatory agencies are imposing Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which would make electric supplies dependent upon variable wind- and solar-powered generating capacity and aggravating the challenge of getting electricity where you need it when you need it.

    A hallmark of the Kaine administration has been its attention to the impact of Global Warming upon Virginia’s economy and ecosystems. That’s a worthy study. We need to think long term, and we need to adopt a holistic framework for approaching public policy that gives proper weight to the environment. However, while attention of our policy makers is fixated on the end of the century, we are paying scant attention to problems of far greater magnitude that could be only three or four years away.

    Here’s a prediction: If brownouts and blackouts start devastating Virginia’s economy, people will be a whole lot more focused on that problem — by a factor of 100 — than hypothetical concerns of what might happen if temperatures and sea levels rise nine decades from now. Global Warming alarmists and environmentalists generally will be discredited. The public will demand immediate solutions, even if those solutions are expensive, short-sighted and environmentally destructive. The public will throw money at Big Grid remedies that provide a quick fix, even if they perpetuate the energy status quo instead of creating the distributed grid we need for a sustainable future.

    Virginia’s public policy makers, including its environmental leaders, need to get out front of these problems now — not when the blackouts hit.
    (Image cutline: April 2008 protest in Pakistan prompted by persistent blackouts.)

  • BREAKTHROUGH!

    WaPo has columnists who often see the world as it is: Warren Brown in one. Another is Steven Pearlstein who appears in the Business section. Today โ€“ 14 November โ€“ Pearlstein tosses a touchdown pass in overtime with โ€œToward a new International Capitalism.โ€

    For anyone interested in the 20 nation-state โ€œsummitโ€ about to launch in the Federal District or the future of Virginiaโ€™s economy needs to understand Pearlsteinโ€™s perspective.

    For EMR the most important thought is buried in the next to last paragraph:

    โ€œWhile product and labor markets work remarkably well when they are left open and lightly-regulated, experience has now demonstrate that a different approach needs to be taken toward financial markets, which suffer from imperfect information, and abundance of moral hazard and a tendency toward herd behavior and speculative excess.โ€

    Wait a minute!

    While those comments are on target with respect to โ€œfinancialโ€ markets what about land markets, built environment markets and infrastructure markets? Taken together these three can be called โ€œthe settlement pattern marketโ€ because they shape human settlement patterns.

    No one with hands on experience in these markets could claim they do not โ€œsuffer from imperfect information, and abundance of moral hazard and a tendency toward herd behavior and speculative excess.โ€

    Is the real estate market just a side light? Is it not the mortgage sector of this market that is driving the Global financial meltdown?

    What about Autonomobiles? Are they just โ€œproductsโ€ or are they right behind โ€œWrong Size House in Wrong Locationโ€ as a driver of settlement pattern dysfunction?

    What a huge blind spot Pearlstein has exposed! We explore this blind spot that is common among economist in The Shape of the Future.

    Pearlstein provides a useful context with which come to understand the importance and topography of the complex market that most directly impacts human settlement patterns.

    At the federal, state and municipal levels Agencies have done an terrible job of managing the settlement pattern market. See โ€œThe Role of Municipal Planning in the Creation of Dysfunctional Human Settlement Patterns,โ€ 23 January 2002.

    Housing and Autonomobiles have been subsidized by Agencies to jump start the economy with every recession since the Great Depression. And every time the settlement pattern has become more dysfunctional as documented by the Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis.

    Why not evolve intelligent management of four markets: Labor, Goods and Services, Finance and Settlement Pattern? That will be important at the Global and continental scales but even more important at the Regional scale. The nation-state has a role to play but it is the Region where the rubber needs to meet the road. That has been the focus in the EU.

    The folks governance practitioners that Jim Bacon calls Euro Weenies have been reluctant to harp on the dysfunctional settlement patterns in the US of A because the more sustainable patterns and densities of land use give the Euroโ€™s a competitive advantage.

    Perhaps in the context that Pearlstein outlines they will speak up over the weekend.

    EMR