• Bacon’s Rebellion E-zine

    The Jan. 19, 2009, edition of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine has been published.

    Virginia and the Employee Free Choice Act
    The panic over the Employee Free Choice Act is overwrought. Here’s why it isn’t as big a deal as partisans on both sides would have you believe.
    by Lawrence H. Framme III

    Lowering the Costs of Virginia’s Prison System
    Has the time come where conservatives need to cast the same wary eye at our prison budget that they do at every other item in the state budget?
    by Pat Nolan

    Virginia Needs More Charter Schools
    Overall, Virginia does a good job with public education, but that doesn’t mean we can ignore the failure of public schools in some parts of our state. Instead of more bureaucracy we need to give parents what they want, more choice in what school their kids go to.
    by Christian Braunlich

    Stimulating Job Creation
    Obama’s stimulus bill may help the economy, but only if we make sure that it doesn’t let the government try to compete against the private sector.
    by John Palatiello

    Presentism in Virginia Politics
    When Virginians recoil in horror from a Southern symbol like Lee-Jackson Day, just as a vampire shrieks at the Cross, they engage in “presentism.” This affliction of the mind pollutes the spirit and poisons the body politic.
    by James Atticus Bowden

    This Holiday Means Help for the Economy
    America’s small businesses are hurting. Here’s how we can help them get back on their feet.
    by Todd Stottlemyer


  • The Intellectual Pretensions of Suburb Bashing

    Saturday night my wife and I went to see the movie โ€œRevolutionary Roadโ€ starring the Titanic team of Leonardo and Kate. Itโ€™s sharp, intelligent and deeply depressing fare by the same director of that gem โ€œAmerican Beautyโ€ but without much of the satiric humor.

    The film brought to mind the concept of suburbs and just how intellectuals despise them, often for good reason. This is true at Bacons Rebellion (at least the original one) where such keen-eyed observers as EMR and Jim Bacon and Larry Gross take apart the problems of the car-centric suburbs that have overwhelmed Virginia since about the 1930s when the New Deal brought lots of new federal workers to Washington and many flocked to the cheap housing in Arlington.

    I, too, have done my dissing of suburbs, although I lived in some as a child and some of my earliest memories are not of cities, but of station wagons on Rockville Pike north of Bethesda and Congressional Shopping Center, a converted civil airport, where I used to buy my plastic models. Later, I lived in true small towns and in the country. During my adult life, I tended towards residing near the centers of cities, including Norfolk, Richmond, Washington, Chicago, Moscow and New York.

    Like Frank and April in the movie, marriage and two children brought me to the suburbs which are where I am now. But I start to wonder, why does everyone hate the suburbs so much? Is it really fair, since suburbs have been a huge part of the American experience since at least the 1950s? Are we really the worse for it as the EMRs and Baconators would have us believe? I mean, Ed and Jim, are we all really so worthless?

    There is a certain pretension in โ€˜burb-bashing. Consider this excerpt from the New York Times which was riffing off the upcoming release of โ€œRevolutionary Road:

    โ€œIn the last couple of decades, the antisuburban film has become as much a staple of Hollywood as the Serious Crime Drama With an Incomprehensible Plot. A few prominent examples: Todd Haynesโ€™s โ€œSafeโ€ (which has suburban people inexplicably bleeding from every pore of their bodies); the 2004 remake of โ€œThe Stepford Wivesโ€ (where Viking range + Sub-Zero refrigerator = robotic wife, death of feminism and extinction of human rights); โ€œThe Ice Stormโ€ (just in case you ignored the urgent alarm sounded by the antisuburban novel by Rick Moody on which the film is based and moved to Larchmont); the British Sam Mendesโ€™s very own โ€œAmerican Beautyโ€ (of which โ€œRevolutionary Roadโ€ is simply a reiteration โ€” take a sprinkler, add a dollop of anomie, and presto! youโ€™re an authentic American filmmaker).โ€

    So, let me see if I am getting this right. The โ€œautonomobileโ€ + โ€œdysfunctional settlement patternsโ€ + boredom = hopelessness + self-abortion (see the movie). But I think that is terribly harsh and negates such much of what has been good about U.S. culture at least when I have been alive (I turned 56 last week).

    The fact is that for years hardly anyone has lived in the extremely-densely packed neighborhoods where I resided in Brooklyn for four years when I worked at a magazine in Manhattan. I spent fascinating weekends inspecting brownstones and redbricks, studying the sub-society on tenement roofs and on fire escapes and marveling at the incredible ethnic diversity of the place. My Soviet-born wife loved New York with a passion and was disappointed when we ended up in a nice suburb. She ought to know — she teaches the children of suburban families and knows their issues very well.

    Suburbs are alien worlds to her so her viewing of “Revolutionary Road” was a bit clinical. As a child, she lived for a while in a city in a โ€œkommunalkaโ€ or apartment where as many as a dozen families lived on one floor and shared one kitchen and bathroom. Talk about properly dense housing patterns! Think of it as Risseโ€™s ideal world on steroids with a vodka chaser!

    It wasnโ€™t that her family was poor โ€“ everyone was. Her mother worked at a partly-underground factory that made, among other things, surface-to-air missiles of the type used against U.S. aircraft in Vietnam. Back then in the Urals, such housing wasnโ€™t so much a factor of far-sighted urban planning, Rather, it was because the nation was still getting over the effects of World War II which killed millions of Russians.

    Anyway, back to the movie. Leonardo and Kate do a fine job of playing out their enormous frustrations at being alive in the 1950s suburbs and they really seem to want to get on to Paris and make like Kerouac or Ginsberg. I liked the movie but really admired โ€œAmerican Beauty,โ€ another gutting of suburbia, but more of a satire thanks to Kevin Spaceyโ€™s wry and brilliant humor.

    I guess I subscribe to the intellectual pretension of โ€˜burb-bashing because I am so much a product of it.

    Peter Galuszka


  • WHO IS IN CONTROL?

    There seems to be an intentional attempt on this blog to distort EMRโ€™s views of governance and the achievement of Fundamental Transformation in human settlement pattern, governance structure and the global economic structure.

    Darrell โ€“ Chesapeake dismisses EMR as just another socialist.

    Larry Gross somewhere got the idea that it will require a philosopher king to manage society. He has not bothered to read THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    Nova Middle Man recently said:

    โ€œEMR and You (Jim Bacon) seem to have similar goals but totally different ways of getting there. EMR’s plans only work with massive government regulation. Am I missing something?โ€

    Yes!

    โ€œEMR probably would want 100% control in the typical liberal elite I know best mentality. In reality what would this look like.โ€

    Where does this foolishness come from?

    Not from anything we have written. Not from any lecture we have delivered. The primary source of this foolishness appears to stem from readers not understanding the Fundamental Transformation means FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION.

    Since inquiry is part of a chapter we will be editing soon and we have not specifically addressed this issue before in this forum we will try to summarize:

    Management at the Cluster scale is critically important since the Cluster is largest organic component with realistic potential to have effective direct democracy. This observation is base on years of Community management experience and on the study of group dynamics as well as the physical constraints of meeting space that is available at times and in locations when all the citizens of a Cluster can assemble.

    So that means at least 2-million โ€œleadersโ€ and if there is any delegation of responsibility about 10-million.

    The New Urban Region is the smallest Organic Component of human settlement that can achieve sustainability (and may also be the largest but that is another issue). To lead New Urban Regions, citizens need thousands of โ€œleaders.โ€ There are also Subregions and Urban Support Regions so let us say there is a need another 250,000 to manage at the Regional scale.

    Above the New Urban Region โ€“ MegaRegions, nation-states, trading-blocks, continental and global scales there are many who would like the have roles. These are the one now hears about as โ€œleadersโ€ but they should have worked up through to ranks and they should be among those already tabulated.

    Of course there are more than just Agencies in need of leadership. Many Enterprises and Institutions will be managed by those who also participate in the governance structure. The difference between now and a sustainable future is that in 24-7 Sunlight, everyone will know of the multiple roles and the conflicts can be eliminated.

    At the other end of the spectrum of Organic Components is the Unit occupied by the Household. It is clear that to be a functional Household there must be at least one informed โ€œleader.โ€ If part of Household activity is to raise children there need to be at least two. So there is another 130-million more or less leaders.

    The Dooryard, Neighborhood, Village scales components need leaders too but almost all will also be among those already identified.

    So far we are up to 140,250,000 leaders. In a true democracy everyone has a vote so even those who are not in a leadership position at any given time role have a say.

    So where is the central committee, the philosopher king or the liberal elite? Pure fantasy on the part of those who do not want to understand Fundamental Transformation.

    Will such a system work? So far the field tests say yes โ€“ if citizens understand their role and take responsibility for their actions.

    There need be no central committee and no philosopher king. No liberal elite, no pseud-conservative Belief Tank, no Tri-lateral commission, no messiah, no caliph, no dictator, no Darth Vader. Just citizens making informed decision in the market and in the voting booth.

    As we suggest in posts over the last three months that focused on achieving a sustainable trajectory for civilization, creating an AntiParty and the upcoming change of administration โ€“ for example โ€œThanksgiving Perspectiveโ€:

    The problem citizens face is massive over expectation that any one person or the team any one person assembles can โ€œsolve the problem.โ€

    Larry Gross again:

    โ€œBut EMR has failed repeatedly and miserably IMHO to lay out a clear and articulate path for citizens to understand what a Balanced Community is (and is not) – and what changes they should support via elections and referendum and current development proposals (like Tysons) to move in that direction.โ€

    No, Larry, you have failed โ€œrepeatedly and miserablyโ€ to bother to read what EMR has written on these topics. For some reason you expect that every time a question occurs (or reoccurs) to you, that EMR has the obligation to drop everything and try to again answer it. That is especially a problem when you appear to only listen / read / understand what supports you preconceived notions which lack a comprehensive Conceptual Framework or a Vocabulary to articulate that framework.

    That is why a sustainable trajectory requires hundreds of millions of citizens who are โ€˜responsibleโ€™ and informed so democracy and the market can work.

    So far Jim Bacon is the only one who has grasp just how profound โ€œFundamental Transformationโ€ โ€“ in settlement patterns, governance structure and economic systems โ€“ must be to obtain a sustainable trajectory.

    The central tragedy is that the market and the vast majority of citizens indicated that they WANT that change but are thwarted by those who now benefit from special privileges under the existing system.

    That is exactly what Niccolo M. said thwarted change…

    EMR


  • Kaine’s “Green Jobs” Initiative

    In a Jan. 12 release, and again in his state of the Commonwealth speech, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine outlined the details of his โ€œgreen jobsโ€ initiative. For the most part, it is a worthy policy thrust, containing some very good ideas, some inoffensive ones, and only one worrisome proposal. The package is modest in scope, constrained by Virginiaโ€™s budget straightjacket, but considered as a whole, it would nudge the Commonwealth in the right direction.

    Letโ€™s be clear about what the green jobs initiative is not. While there are strong conservation components, the Kaine initiative is not a comprehensive approach to reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions across the economy. โ€œGreen jobsโ€ does not address key drivers of energy intensity in Virginiaโ€™s economy, such as the auto-centric system of transportation and land use. But provisions of the program, if enacted, would get us closer to creating sustainable, energy-efficient regions.

    The most far-reaching โ€“ and laudable — provisions would promote energy conservation in two ways: (1) raising energy-efficiency standards for state buildings, and (2) promoting electric utility investments in conservation.

    In his state of the Commonwealth address, Kaine cited the top recommendation of his Climate Change Commission: to reduce electricity consumption in Virginia by 19 percent of current levels by 2025 (with adjustments for population growth). That goal wonโ€™t reduce total consumption by 19 percent, but it would reduce per capita consumption. Itโ€™s an ambitious goal but an achievable one.

    Kaine has already issued an executive order requiring all new state buildings be constructed to high energy-efficiency standards. This year, the governor proposes extending that idea by amending the Code of Virginia to require โ€œall state and local government buildings meet either LEED or Green Globes standards for efficiency.โ€

    Heโ€™s not talking about new buildings only. Heโ€™s talking about retrofitting existing buildings. Retrofits, he notes, would put a lot of carpenters, electricians and installers back to work โ€“ a good thing in a recession. Fair enough. What he didnโ€™t do in the speech was say how he intends to pay for the retrofits.

    If the plan relies upon the routine allowances for building maintenance and improvements in the state budget, the sums available to pay for the energy-efficiency retrofits will be meager indeed, and the impact on jobs would be minimal. This strikes me as an instance in which the state should exercise its AAA bond rating to borrow money.

    Letโ€™s say, for purposes of illustration, that the Department of General Administration has identified $250 million worth of worthy energy-efficiency projects in public buildings, including only projects that generate a payback of 20 percent per year or more. The Commonwealth could borrow that $250 million, paying 5 percent or so on its bonds. Not only would the expenditure of those funds create work for the construction industry at a time it desperately needs it, the expenditures would more than pay their way. Every dollar the state devotes to debt payment, it makes back through a reduction in energy costs — with an ample “profit” to spare. Thatโ€™s just good business, and a good tactic for addressing the state’s long-term budget challenges.

    Of course, state and local government account for only a tenth or so of Virginiaโ€™s economy, so these measures leave 90 percent of the economy untouched. Kaineโ€™s proposed changes to utility rate structuring would address that problem. Said Kaine:

    Under current law, we guarantee a rate of return for a utility building a new coal plant, but not for investments that promote conservation. That just makes no sense. Our long-term planning should recognize that conservation is just as important an energy source as new construction. We should treat conservation investments at least as favorably as new generation investments, and my bill will do that.

    This measure would address a fundamental flaw in Virginia rate-setting policy. (I havenโ€™t read the bill, so I cannot comment on the specifics, but the broad idea behind it is sound.) Despite the many opportunities available, Dominion, Appalachian Power and the smaller power companies have little incentive to invest in energy efficiency and conservation. One idea currently under consideration is Dominionโ€™s proposal to install smart meters in every home. Smart meters would give consumers the means to carefully monitor their electricity consumption. Pilot programs around the world have demonstrated that people utilize electricity more efficiently when they can measure the impact of their activities.

    These proposals are “slam dunks” and warrant the full and fair consideration of the General Assembly. Gov. Kaine proposed some other measures, which donโ€™t seem like the โ€œslam dunksโ€ that may require more thought. I will address them in a future post.


  • TMT AND BALANCED COMMUNITIES

    In the 47th comment on the TRAGEDY OF TRICKLE DOWN string, TMT posted a question unrelated to Trickle Down but on an important topic:

    The optimum location for the evolution of Balanced Communities.

    Jim Bacon posted a responding comment that is on target but TMTs post provided an opportunity to nail down some flapping issues and misunderstandings (aka, misunderestimations).

    We have reproduced TMTs comment here and interlined comments. That is the fastest way to deal with the issues.

    โ€œMaybe I’m still missing something – wouldn’t be the first time and won’t be the last.

    โ€œBut assuming, for the moment, that Balanced Communities are the “natural” or “intended” way.โ€

    Perhaps โ€œmost efficientโ€ or โ€œmost likely to meet the needs of the largest percentage of the population at the lowest total economic, social and physical costโ€ would be a better way to characterize a sustainable New Urban Region composed of Balanced Communities.

    โ€œMy question is then: How are balanced communities to be implemented?โ€

    Jim Bacon outlines three good principles in his post. In The Shape of the Future, EMR lays out six Overarching Strategies that provide a comprehensive context for achieving Balance.

    The first step is to understand that achieving Balance will be to everyoneโ€™s benefit and the failure to achieve Balance will result in Collapse.

    โ€œHaving lived in the Midwest and Great Plains for many years, I know from personal observation that there is plenty of room in many states to the west of the Eastern Seaboard and to the east of the Left Coast.โ€

    Here is the first issue that needs to be nailed down: There is โ€œplenty of roomโ€ not just in the Midwest and the Great Plains but right here in the National Capital Subregion. There is a vast amount of vacant and underutilized land for which the public has already provided infrastructure. Check out Blueprint.

    EMR prepared a PowerPoint on this topic (โ€œFive Critical Issuesโ€). No one has (nor could they) dispute the calculations. All they can say is โ€œI would rather not live in a dwelling in the patterns and at the density that the market demonstrates is in the greatest demand.โ€ This pattern is, by the way Balanced at the Alpha Community scale and it functions / performs well.

    Jim Bacon and EMR say: โ€œLive where you what and as you want so long as you pay the fair cost.โ€ The 12.5 Percenters do not like it but 87.5 percent is a majority and if they do not want to go with the majority, all they have to do is pay the cost.

    โ€œShould it be the policy of the United States to push population and even job growth to “Fly-over Country”?โ€

    No, No, No. The markets shows the vast majority do not want to live in Fly-over Country. That is why it is Fly-over Country.

    Some do want to live there and there is no reason they cannot build Balanced Communities there. However, it should not because โ€œpolicyโ€ pushes them there.

    There is another reason besides the value of free choice. That reason is that the cost of contemporary society is vastly more than anyone is now paying. That is why there is huge debt — public and private — but what is being paid plus what is being barrowed now is not nearly the total cost. If โ€˜policyโ€™ starts pushing citizens where they do not want to go it will cost far more.

    โ€œWhat if it would be much less expensive to triple the population of North Dakota than to build a mixed use Tysons Corner?โ€

    No, not even close. How much would they have to pay you to move to Fargo? OK you are from Fargo and want to return but only 1 out of 7,346 are in that situation. The market says; the Creative Class says; common sense says: Go to the best places.

    โ€œShould immigration reform be tied to “settling the great open middle”?

    No, no, no. There is no need โ€œsettleโ€ anyplace. Over 95 percent of the population is Urban and to house the entire Urban population of the US of A requires less than 5 percent of the total land area of the Lower 48 at MINIMUM densities.

    โ€œFor example, just as with homesteading in the 19th century…โ€

    You could have a lot of that homestead land right now for NonUrban activities โ€“ really cheap. If you want to use it for Urban purposes the cost will be huge.

    โ€œ… should Obama propose “amnesty” to any person who lived here illegally for five years or more, but only if she/he lives in a place such as Iowa or Wyoming for five more years?โ€

    Of course not.

    โ€œShould new immigration permits be conditioned on settling in Montana or Arkansas?โ€

    Only if the immigrants have skills that will evolve Balanced Communities in Montana and Arkansas and that is where they want to go.

    โ€œShould Congress enact a law that says 50% of federal agency staffs must be located in either the Central or Mountain Time Zones?โ€

    No, see note on cost above.

    That does not say that for some Agency purposes it would be more efficient to have facilities in small New Urban Regions or in Communities in Urban Support Regions but the function should dictate the location. And be prepared to pay bonuses to those who do not end up in desirable Communities and the most desirable Communities are Balanced Communities.

    โ€œShould Fairfax County simply say, “We’ve grown as big as we are going to get. The next big building boom must occur in Fairfax, Minnesota or Fairfax, Ohio.”

    Fairfax Countyโ€™s problems are rooted in settlement pattern dysfunction and lack of Balance, not over-population. Over-population is what dysfunction looks like to those who do not understand human settlement patterns and have let an inequitable allocation of costs line the wrong pockets.

    โ€œIf we recoil at all or some of these programs as being violative of free choice, why is so-called ‘Smart Growth’ being rammed down people’s throats?โ€

    So far as EMR is aware no โ€œsmart growthโ€ policy or program has been established in any jurisdiction where the elected representatives did not believe that the majority of the citizens supported those policies. There may be cases where the governance practitioners believe that the majority would support these policies if they knew what was good for them but by the time โ€œsmart growthโ€ is an issue, the majority do support it. Yes, most want the change in someone elseโ€™s Neighborhood, not theirs but few favor “dumb growth.”

    โ€œIs “Smart Growth” just an alliance between those who hate autos and suburbs and the landowners/developers who want to make money, but don’t want to move west, or south or wherever?โ€

    You know the answer to that. But if it is the case, then the alliance is the majority in the jurisdiction where it occurs.

    EMR


  • BACK TO HOUSING

    Jim Baconโ€™s 9 January post โ€œFewer Homes, Smaller Homesโ€ makes a number of useful points. It is a shame that the discussion wandered off into the wasteland of Abstract Belief Tank Topics unrelated to the original post. These topics will be moot in the future if there is Fundamental Transformation. There will be no future without Fundamental Transformation. Why waste the bytes?

    Housing is back on the front page of WaPo today: โ€œThe Crash: What Went Wrong; The Growing Foreclosure Crisis.โ€

    The opening teaser reads: โ€œOne oft-repeated assertion no longer holds true. Those in trouble are not, primarily, lower-income borrowers. The foreclosure crisis has become a wave, afflicting neighborhoods [sic โ€“ note small โ€œnโ€] of every stripe โ€“ but particularly communities [sic โ€“ note small โ€œcโ€] created by the boom itself.โ€*

    Wrong Size House in the Wrong Location.

    If you do not understand that the evolving โ€œnewsโ€ supports what EMR has (and to a large extent, Jim Bacon has) been saying about the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis for half a dozen years then increase your Geographic Illiteracy medications.

    If you do not understand, you do have an excuse. As pointed out in PART EIGHT Chapter 27 of TRILO-G:

    โ€œConventional โ€˜regionalโ€™ mapping is based on municipal and state boundary geography and 18th century horseback perceptions of spacial relationships.โ€ The data derived from the municipal, state, federal, and Enterprise geographic categories such as municipal borders, election districts, state borders, large Census agglomerations, zip codes, Area Codes and service areas are nearly useless in understanding fundamental economic, social and physical relationships.โ€

    * Which is it? โ€œneighborhoodโ€ or โ€œcommunityโ€ Without a robust Vocabulary even discussion of human settlement pattern issue is a wasteland. Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns requires a comprehensive Conceptual Framework and a Vocabulary with which to discuss that Framework.

    EMR


  • Fewer Homes, Smaller Homes

    Every municipality in Virginia bases its land use planning on the anticipated demand for new housing. Their plans are only as good as their projections. And the projections are good only as long as historical trends hold up.

    The demand for housing is based upon the rate of new household formation. And that is driven by population growth and the average size of the household. Of the two, population growth is the most important, but average household size is by no means insigificant. Look what’s happened over the past century or so: In 1915, the average household size stood at 4.5. By 1967, it had declined to 3.0, and by 2006, it had dipped again to 2.6.

    Bottom line: Shrinking household size has turbo-charged the growth in demand for housing. Insofar as housing projections are predicated upon past increases in household formation, the planning assumptions embedded in comprehensive plans across Virginia assume that average household size will continue to shrink.

    While population is expected to continue increasing, we cannot assume that household sizes will continue to shrink. Indeed, there is evidence that household sizes actually may begin to increase in size. That is the thesis of a column, “Reinventing the Family,” that I wrote earlier this week for the Times-Dispatch. (Here is the version posted on the Boomer Project web site.)

    One factor is the increasing tendency of adult GenYs to live longer with their parents. Whether the trend reflects a prolonged adolescent dependency or the economic realities of student loans and credit card debt, I don’t know. But it’s happening. At the same time, on the older end of the age scale, more parents are moving in with their children. Thus, we’re seeing signs of a re-emergence of a three-generation household. (There are other factors reversing the atomization of the family, but those are the two biggest.)

    I suspect this trend will be accelerated by the severity of the current recession. As unemployment shoots up, it only makes sense for family members to combine residences and reduce overhead. As much as Americans love their big homes and personal privacy, they are not immune to economic forces. They will change their behavior in response to adverse economic circumstances.

    Yesterday, USA Today published an article quoting the National Association of Home Builders to the effect that the average size of new single-family homes, which has climbed steadily over the decades, has gone into reverse. The NAHB’s analysis showed that the average size of new houses declined from 2,629 square feet in the third quarter of 2008 to 2,438 — the steepest dip since researchers started collecting the data in 1999.

    Business-As-Usual is on its last legs. Many assumptions that underpinned Virginia’s governance systems of the past half century are no longer valid. We are entering a new era — and I fear that our planners and elected officials are not prepared for it.


  • Back from the Dead: the Bacon’s Rebellion E-zine

    The Jefferson Institute for Public Policy has published the Jan. 5, 2009, edition — its second — of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine. The highlights:

    Privatization Can Transform the Delivery of State Psychiatric Services
    by Leonard Gilroy

    Wanted: A Virginia Land Inventory
    by John Palatiello

    The Ultimate Tax Cut that can Help President Obama get Americaโ€™s Economy Moving Again
    by Paul Goldman

    The Right to Chooseโ€ฆSecretly
    by Christian Braunlich

    The Economic Mess
    by James Atticus Bowden

    Global Virginia
    by Michael Cecire

    Change We Can Believe In
    Lawrence W. Framme III


  • MORE ON MONTANA McLODGES

    Reporting from Los Angles (โ€˜The Westโ€™ is โ€œThe Westโ€ to WaPo) Karl Vick in todayโ€™s WaPo is back on the Plum Creek / McLodges story addressed in column # 127 โ€œRocky Mountain Lowโ€ of 21 July 2008.

    The sources Vick quoted in the earlier story — that EMR heard from after it was published — were not very impressed with Vickโ€™s July coverage.

    If Vick has this report about our home territory even partially right, EMR is not at all impressed with ANY of the players.

    FEDS: The feds (US Forest Service) are trying to get a new โ€œagreementโ€ in place before 20 January (Inauguration of the new administration) to allow paving roads on public land to access potential Urban home sites on Plum Creek Timber Co’s land. What would you expect from an Agency which is being run by a former timber lobbyist?

    MUNICIPAL AND STATE AGENCIES. The municipal and state governance practitioners (and the tut-tut-ers in Congress) are hoping the feds will keep Plum Creek from paving logging roads so they do not have to acknowledge their central role in fostering dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

    PLUM CREEK: Plum Creek Timber cannot be so deluded as to think they can sell enough land for McLodges to make a difference in their bottom line.

    Many owners of existing McLodges now realize they will NEVER be able to afford to spend another late summer / early fall in Montana. When the snow melts and current owners put their second, third and fourth โ€˜placesโ€™ on the market, the market will disappear.

    If selling any significant part of their land for McLodge development is in Plum Creek’s business plan, they might as well file for bankruptcy right now.

    ENVIROS: By failing to address the root problem โ€“ scattered Urban dwellings and dysfunctional human settlement patterns โ€“ Enviros have opened the door to ignorance compounding ignorance. See Larry Grossesโ€™ note on Wal*Mart @ Wilderness Battlefield. Same problem here: The issue is Regional, Subregional settlement patterns โ€“ inside and outside the Clear Edges. Fussing over this or that transgression is a losing battle.

    Further, โ€˜conservation advocatesโ€™ have never run the numbers. If they had, they would understand that the McLodges ploy is a smoke screen to get โ€˜conservation interestsโ€™ to buy the land and perpetuate the myth that these โ€œRemote and Inhospitableโ€ lands have Urban โ€œdevelopmentโ€ value. Almost no one would want to develop most of the land. And the rest? If all the location-variable costs were fairly allocated almost no one could afford to โ€œdevelopโ€ or maintain a McLodge much less subdivisions of them.

    EMR


  • CUBA AND THE NEW FRU

    MainStream Media reports that President-Elect Obama will support a Change in relations with Cuba. It is about time.

    And just in time. Every region will need to import some Cubans, not for cheap labor as in the past but for their ingenuity in converting Mass OverConsumptive Technology to sustainable levels.

    With the New Fru, every place that hopes to evolve to become a Balanced Community will need a Cuban New Fru Guru.

    Cubans have demonstrated how humans can be (relatively) happy in spite of:

    โ€ข Having to rely on pre-1957 Large, Private Vehicles,

    โ€ข A demented dictator, and

    โ€ข Oppressive foreign intervention.

    These are all things that will be important to every citizen of the US of A due to the past 35 years of Growth-is-Good-but-More-Growth-is-Better driven Supercapitalism and Mass OverConsumption that underlies the New Fru.

    Now Cubans have focused on saving money in communications. See todayโ€™s WaPo Page 1 โ€œIn Cuba, Cellphone Calls Go Unanswered.”

    This new technique should make driving safer for those who will still be able to afford to drive Large, Private Vehicles.

    (By the way Peter, WordPerfect tells EMR that WaPo has just invented a new word and saved space โ€“ they dropped the space between โ€˜cellโ€™ and โ€˜phone.โ€™)

    EMR


  • The New Fru and Fundamental Change

    As part of my job for the Boomer Project, I survey the media and blogs for emerging trends. One unmistakable trajectory is the increased commentary on what EMR and I would call the “end of the era of mass overconsumption.” Others have given catchier names to the phenomenon, but it all amounts to the same thing: The era of unsustainable, debt-fueled consumption in the American economy is over. In contrast to the past two recessions, consumer spending will not rebound stronger than ever. Consumers are fundamentally re-evaluating the idea that accumulating more stuff is the path to happiness.

    Matt Thornhill, a principal of the Boomer Project, sees the rise of what he has labelled “responsible consumerism” and, alternatively, the “new fru” (for new frugality). Personally, I find the second term more memorable. Responsible consumerism sounds like more people reading Consumer Reports. New Fru sounds like people embracing frugality as a positive virtue, which is, in fact, what I think more and more people are doing.

    As Matt elaborates the concept in a Times-Dispatch op-ed piece, “Age of Responsible Consumerism Begins,” the spreading rejection of mindless consumption will persist beyond the cyclical tightening of credit. Writes Matt:

    We saw this seismic shift coming a generation away. Members of both the G.I. and Silent generations, those now ages 63 and older, led the way by reducing their own consumption of goods and services as they grew older. Their desires shifted as they reached 50 and then 60: fewer material goods, more enriching experiences. Fast on their heels comes the largest, wealthiest, and most important demographic group America has even seen. Boomers, raised in front of television sets, a target for marketers from age 5 upward, are now reaching 60 at the rate of one every eight seconds.

    That’s right. The generation that put the mass into consumption is now at the stage of life where people naturally shift focus from the material to the ethereal. What’s fascinating (or worrisome, if you’re in a retail or consumer-products business) is that the impact of this shift on America’s consumption-driven economy is just beginning.

    But wait, there’s more: This shift away from spending by our largest demographic group coincides with a larger societal trend toward sustainability. Consumers of all ages are thinking more about the environmental impact of their purchase behavior and consumption patterns. In a national study we conducted among all adults in late summer, before the economic meltdown, 80 percent of all consumers told us they think or act in a “green,” or environmentally responsible fashion. Green is mainstream, and here to stay. Today’s consumers want to be responsible in their consumption. They crave sustainability, not planned obsolescence. They focus increasingly on “needs” and not “wants.”

    Arguably the most profound shift in American values since the 1960s, the New Fru will lay the groundwork for Fundamental Change. Now, think through the implications. If consumers become more parsimonious, finding happiness in life from sources other than the accumulation of stuff, the long-term decline in consumer spending will send ripples — tidal waves, more likely — across the economy and the governance system built upon it. Here in Virginia, we need to prepare ourselves for several foreseeable consequences:
    • As the retail sector shrinks, there will be fewer retail jobs — an entry point for many Virginians into the workforce.
    • As retail sales shrivel, so will revenues from the sales tax. Government services that depend upon the sales tax for funding will be more fiscally challenged than services that rely upon, say, the income tax for a funding stream.
    • As retail chains contract, demand for retial space in malls and shopping centers will evaporate. Vacancies will rise. Investment in retail development and re-development will plummet. That, in turn, will hurt municipalities that depend upon their commercial property tax base for revenue.

    These changes are bearing down on us like a freight train. There is no wishing them away. Governance practitioners have no excuse for getting caught off guard.


  • Weight Matters

    In 2007, trucks paid $2.7 million in fees for permits to operate in excess of Virginia’s vehicle weight limits. But that number fell far short of the estimated $211.4 million that heavy loads did to the state’s roads that year, according to Gary Allen, head of the Virginia Transportation Research Council.

    Although Allen didn’t put it quite this way, it appears that Virginia motorists are subsidizing heavy trucks to the tune of more than $200 million a year by failing to levy appropriate fees.

    According to Peter Bacque in a Dec. 22 article in the Times-Dispatch, the Virginia Department of Transportation is recommending an increase in overweight-vehicle fees but is not pushing for the big rigs to pay their full freight. “Stakeholders raised concerns regarding current economic conditions, the competitiveness of Virginia’s ports and the difficulty in some industries of avoiding overweight loads,” said David S. Ekern, transportation commissioner.

    Same old story. A special interest group receives a long-standing subsidy from the public, the subsidy becomes an entitlement, the special interest cries hardship when someone tries to curtail the subsidy, politicians back off, and everyday taxpayers pay through the nose.

    Here’s what Allen’s research revealed: A heavily loaded tractor-trailer produces 8,000 to 9,000 times as much damage to highways and bridges as a passenger car does.

    The deterioration of Virginia’s bridges, wrote Bacque, was traced mainly to the 30,000 vehicles (operating with permits) that weighed more than the loads for which the bridges were designed. Based on Allen’s calculations, a tractor-trailer weighing 116,000 pounds traveling the length of the 325-mile Interstate 81 and crossing its 58 bridges should pay $142.67 for the trip.

    A long-running theme of this blog is that transportation policy should be based upon user-pays principles. The public should press the General Assembly to require trucks to pay the full cost of their heavy loads.

    Admittedly, the calculations on what constitutes a “fair” fee can get tricky. Dale Bennett, lobbyist for the Virginia Trucking Association, notes that the VDOT study is “based on a lot of assumptions.” Probably so. But let’s see the VTA comes up with better assumptions. New assumptions might change the numbers on the margin, but they’re unlikely to alter the fact that trucks are not paying the full costs they incur.

    Bottom line: Shippers need to pay higher fees — or use lighter trucks.


  • The True Spirit of Islam

    I’ve got a big backlog of stories that I hope to get to this long New Year’s weekend. Some, like this, are a bit out of date. But better late than never.

    Does anybody remember the terrorist siege of Mumbai? Definitely yesterday’s news. But there’s a local angle that’s worth bringing to your attention. By way of preface, we often read criticisms of American Muslims for sitting quietly on the sidelines when radical Islamists commit terrorist acts. Well, I think it’s worth noting that a league of Virginia Muslims — many of whom are South Asians — has spoken out in the strongest possible terms.

    From Dr. Imad Damaj, president of the Muslim Coalition for Public Affairs:

    It is with an utmost sadness and shock that we received the news of the terroristsโ€™ attacks in India in the eve of Thanksgiving.

    The Virginia Muslim Coalition for Public Affairs strongly condemns and denounces these criminal acts and expresses its sincere words of comfort and feelings of sympathy and sadness for the loss of all innocent lives in India.

    We extend our heartfelt condolences to all the families of the victims and in particular to the family of our fellow Virginian, Rabbi Gavriel Holtzberg and his wife.

    Regardless of who was involved, the people who carried these attacks out are people with no sense of humanity or morality. They can claim the Religion of Islam as their creed, but their actions go against the fundamental spirit of Islam, which promotes a culture of life and humanity, not bloodshed and violence.

    Bravo.


  • MORE ON MainStream Media’s DEFAULT

    Further thoughts on MainStream Mediaโ€™s culpability vis a vis Collapse of the global financial house of cards:

    The previous post (IT is MainStream Mediaโ€™s FAULT) engendered a number of useful observations concerning financial Collapse and the role of the Media:

    REID ON THE RIGHT TRACK

    At 6:37 AM on 30 December, Reid Greenum put his finger on a key issue: Greed.

    He is right to rail against individual greed, but there are two kinds of greed.

    The individual moral shortcoming that Reid is concerned about AND

    The systemic, institutionalized (small โ€˜eyeโ€™) greed that is a key to the โ€˜successโ€™ of Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions in the Friedman-Flat-Earth economy. Robert Reich documents this form of greed in Supercapitalism.

    Organizational greed could be controlled by enlightened citizens through Agencies but at the current time this systemic problem is the more important of the twin manifestations of greed.

    That is because it impacts almost every one of the Planetโ€™s 6.3 billion citizens and because it is seen as a virtue by Business-As-Usual and Politics-As-Usual advocates โ€“ especially Consumption-Uber-Ales, pseudo-conservatives.

    While systemic greed could be contained by enlightened Agency action, individual greed is genetically hardwired into humans. That is because what we now call โ€˜greedโ€™ served humans well in most Hunter / Gather and Early Agrarian Societies.

    On the other hand, the greed proclivities lead to unsustainable consequences in an Urban society โ€“ Mass OverConsumption and dysfunctional human settlement patterns. In a Driven-to-a-Frenzy-by-Technology Urban Society, there are too many choices; too many opportunities to do something โ€œbecause I can.โ€ This dire circumstance is often are mistaken for โ€˜freedom.โ€™

    That is why greed of both sorts must be controlled in the context of functional human settlement patterns. It flourishes in disaggregated and dysfunctional settlement patterns. More on that in a moment.

    The flip side of both kinds of greed is ignorance. That is because even the most greedy individual or Organization will constrain their proclivities and desires if they know they will suffer more than they will benefit. Note the current course of consumer confidence and consumer spending…

    This is where MainStream Media comes in. The Enterprises that control MainStream Media benefit from citizen ignorance. If citizens and Organizations fail to understand the cumulative consequence of their actions they will continue to over-spend, over-barrow and in other ways feed Enterprise greed.

    BUT WHAT OF HUMAN SETTLEMENT PATTERNS?

    If one does not understand human settlement patterns, they will not comprehend why the pattern and distribution of human activities is a key issue with respect to economic Collapse.

    Saying dysfunctional human settlement patterns is not in play with respect to financial Collapse is like saying gravity had no role in killing Uncle Pete when he fell down three flights of stairs last News Years Eve. One can blame the rotten banister and too much moonshine, however, but for gravity, Uncle Pete would be alive this New Years Eve.

    Saying dysfunctional human settlement patterns is not in play with respect to financial Collapse is like saying electro-magnetic fields do not effect radio reception. But for electro-magnetic fields there would be no radio.

    In fact one way to come to understand the economic, social and physical impact of human settlement patterns is to understand gravitational forces and magnetic fields via celestial mechanics and physics.

    The first 350 pages in the first Volume of The Shape of the Future detail why human settlement pattern has controlling impact on the economic, social and physical well being of citizens.

    THE ROLE OF SETTLEMENT PATTERNS IS SUPPORTING ETHICAL BEHAVIOR

    Reid is also correct about โ€œethicsโ€ playing a key role in economic Collapse. But it is not just the โ€œfamilyโ€ that has fallen apart and is not providing an ethical rudder.

    Back to human settlement patterns. It takes a Dooryard, Cluster, Neighborhood, Village and Community to engender and support ethical behavior. The more complex the society, the more important each of the organic components of human settlement become.

    For a snapshot of what has happened to โ€˜family,โ€™ see definition of Household in GLOSSARY as to why EMR stopped using the word โ€œfamilyโ€ as in Single Household Attached Dwelling.

    As Reid points out, ethics is important. That is not clear with respect to โ€œreligion.โ€ There are a lot of citizens going to places of worship โ€“ on several different days a week โ€“ but few who practice their beliefs in the market or on the highways.

    OTHER COMMENTS

    Several other observations following the IT IS MainStream Mediaโ€™s FAULT post deserve a note:

    Larry Gross at 3:57 PM on 30 December:

    Larry is right on with respect to the federal income tax mortgage deduction!

    When Larry finally gets around to reading The Shape of the Future he will see that the mortgage deduction is high on the list of damaging subsidies driving dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

    The last time EMR looked, something like 90 of benefit of the deduction went to top 20 percent of the Ziggurat. EMR has no problem with well considered Agency help for those in need of shelter assistance but those are the wrong folks to help. In fact they are the only one who do not need help.

    There is absolutely no justification for the subsidy other than Business-As-Usual and driving Mass OverConsumption.

    Larry will not admit it but this is another major cause of putting The Size Wrong House In The Wrong Location.

    Larry Gross, 8:54 AM on 29 Dec:

    It is not just citizens READING the wrong stuff. MainStream Media has other outlets besides material that is โ€œread.โ€

    It is hearing and seeing the wrong stuff and reading, hearing and seeing it over and over again โ€“ all slanted to encourage consumption and Mass OverConsumption.

    NovaMiddleMan, 9:49 AM on 29 Dec:

    NMM said… (โ€œIn quotesโ€)

    โ€œMSM is not relevant anymore.โ€

    Some may wish that were true but if so, why are billions spent on advertising?

    And if MainStream Media goes away tomorrow, where would citizens get any information? From self-serving, dysfunctional Agencies without geographic legitimacy? From Institutions funded by those who want to drive their own agenda? From the other Enterprises that do not even pretend to provide useful information? From Alternative Media? From Anti-media?

    Achieving a sustainable trajectory for civilization requires that new โ€œcitizen mediaโ€ take over the abandoned Fourth Estate before there is no source of information. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    โ€œPeople say other people read the wrong stuff because you can pick whatever “news” you wantโ€

    Now, there is an important statement! Reading only what one wants to believe is worse than reading what MainStream Media presents as โ€˜balancedโ€™ โ€“ if that is possible.

    โ€œโ€˜Newsโ€™ anymore is just another wing of politics.โ€

    No, it is not just Agency babble (aka, politics) but also and even more important Enterprise babble and Institution babble.

    At 3:07 PM on 29 Dec MIGHTYBIGMEDIA provides a nice summary.

    And in the meantime WaPo has concluded today (31 December) a โ€œbalancedโ€ three part series on the crash of AIG and credit default swaps (CDSs). This follows up on their coverage of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) on 16 December and the three part series on The Housing Bubble in June.

    Again, WaPo did
    not get to the root causes. They tut-tut over the wreckage and have nice photos of the scape goats.

    Interestingly, on 28 December the front page of the Business section of WaPo ran a great graphic showing how responsible, conservative, saving citizens have had no place to โ€œinvestโ€ for a decade. Nothing but the ups and downs of gambling venues.

    And to this day, there is nothing to encourage conservative citizens to save, or reward those who have saved.

    Happy New Year.

    EMR


  • IT IS MainStream Media’s FAULT

    A teaser on the front page of todayโ€™s WaPo says:

    โ€œOutlook
    โ€œFeeding a Gloomy Monster
    โ€œResearch shows that media news reports can affect consumer confidence. So how much of the current recession is the mediaโ€™s fault?โ€

    The answer is simple:

    MainStream Media is largely responsible for the current economic crisis.

    But not for the reasons that Eric Weiner explores in his story โ€œThe Year of Living Gloomily: The recession is bad enough. A relentless news cycle is making it worse.โ€

    Most of what Weiner is true, or mostly true, and is well worth reading. But Weinerโ€™s โ€˜reasonsโ€™ only spotlight the pitfalls of creating a Regional, nation-state or Global economies that are driven primarily by consumer consumption โ€“ when the consumers are uninformed about the cumulative consequences of their actions.

    The truth is citizens do not pay all that much attention to โ€œthe news.โ€ That has been documented by a much larger body of research than the one Weiner cites. MainStream Media likes to pretend that citizens pay close attention to their content and thus their advertising. That is the only way they can sell advertising. That is also why they run stories like Weinerโ€™s rather than drilling down to the real causes of civilizations dysfunctions and it discontents.

    Sure, bad โ€œnewsโ€ feeds on itself and saturation coverage leverages bad decisions for the reasons that Weiner outlines. However, what is REALLY driving down the consumption-dependent economy is what is happening in:

    The Household โ€“ โ€œWe owe more on the mortgage than the house is worth.โ€ โ€œOur monthly out-go exceeds our in-come.โ€ โ€œOur credit interest card rate just went up again.โ€ โ€œWe cannot refinance again to get cash to pay the doctor bills, buy a new car or make a weekly trip to Charlestown Races and Slots.

    The Dooryard โ€“ โ€œJoe and Martha have filled for bankruptcy.โ€ โ€œThe people across the street cannot afford to get their roof fixed.โ€

    The Cluster โ€“ โ€œDid you see what that house on the next street is listed for?โ€

    The Neighborhood โ€“ โ€œTwo more stores closed at the Neighborhood Center.โ€ โ€œWal*Mart has that for a dollar less.โ€ See โ€œTHE PROBLEM WITH CARS โ€“ Learning from Big Boxes.โ€

    The job โ€“ โ€œThere is talk of more layoffs at the office.โ€

    The family โ€“ โ€œOur daughter who went off to with her new college degree to Atlanta and then started a business with her partner said at Christmas dinner that she may have to move back …โ€ โ€œGreat Grandad did not put a college fund check in each great grandchildโ€™s holiday card because his retirement account is frozen by the bank…โ€

    And in the Village, the Community and the Region.

    In other words what is driving down the economy is…

    The unsustainable consumer driven economy.

    So why is MainStream Media to blame?

    As noted above, citizens and their Organizations (aka, consumers) are uninformed about the cumulative consequences of their actions โ€“ the cumulative impact with the most widespread and unsustainable impact is dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

    Telling citizens the truth about Mass OverConsumption kills MainStream Media ad revenue.

    As noted in GENERATIONAL GENERALIZATION:

    The emerging reality is Collapse of the Mass OverConsumption โ€˜civilization.โ€™ It is on the brink of Collapse because those at the top of the Ziggurat have been wasting Natural Capital to:

    โ€ข Pay the total cost of a โ€˜driven-to-frenzy-by-technologyโ€™ society, much of which has been written off as โ€˜externalities,โ€™ and

    โ€ข Subsidize the full cost of dysfunctional settlement patterns.

    The role of MainStream Media is complex. One view is spelled out in THE ESTATES MATRIX. Since 1973 MainStream Media has abandoned the Fourth Estate become a Second Estate Enterprise. Since MainStream Media must live off of advertising, truth about the impact of Mass OverConsumption is toxic. Every MainStream Media employee knows that illuminating reality is cutting their own throat.

    MainStream Media driving consumption drives profits and profits buy the publishers / owners of Media Enterprises trout fishing retreats in Montana and the fox hunting estates in the Piedmont.

    That is not โ€œbadโ€ if citizens had the information they need to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the marketplace.

    Citizens do not have that information.

    Those who like to think it is their duty to inform โ€˜the publicโ€™ are out of a job and / or will lose their job if they challenge the Myths that โ€œgrowth and consumption raises all boatsโ€ and that โ€œcompetition without an informed market fairly โ€“ or sustainablely โ€“ allocates resources.โ€

    EMR