Bacon's Rebellion

Gov. Bob McDonnell may be dancing for joy, if not perhaps for feeling a little upstaged, by President Barack Obama’s reversal of a stand against drilling for oil offshore of Virginia.

SORTING WHEAT FROM CHAFF CONCERNING THE SUSTAINABLE FUTURE SKETCH

EMR will move on from THE SKETCH soon but several key points were raised by Larry, Groveton and others in comments following ONE MORE NOTE ON SKETCH COMMENTS that may be lost without special attention. This is the last post from which EMR will NOT delete comments intended to belittle, confuse, embarrass and waste time. That will make multiple posts on a single topic required less often.

Larry said:

“well – at least you looked.”

More than that Larry, EMR appreciated the lead to the Melissa Data Carrier Route site.

“while the data is not quite a granular as you might prefer, I think it does get past the zip code dilemma and I find it interesting that someone has melded/fused income and wealth data to end up with a geographical distribution.”

There is one reason they did this:

A lot of advertisers are willing to buy the information and for them, it is ‘accurate enough.’ They are not concerned with the need to achieve a Balance of economic, social and physical activity – in fact they sell more stuff if there is no Balance within and no Critical Mass of settlement pattern components.

And sell they do. Since signing on to the site EMR has received two personal Emails and a newsletter from Melissa employees. EMR put a tracer on the registration and it will be interesting to see who they sell the information to. All this advertising frenzy will end when citizens wake up and advertising is phased out because it is no longer effective in convincing citizens they need to consume. (More on that soon.)

Larry went on to say:

“so maybe not academic nor implementation …”

Glad that is now straight!!

“I dunno.. but it sure looks like data that could form a better basis for looking more closely at actual settlement pattern attributes.”

The big issue is, as EMR noted before, WHO WILL PAY for the data and analysis that is needed. More on that below.

“I wonder what would be the things that would need to be looked at in particular?

Same things, just looked at within a Comprehensive Conceptual Framework – and through the right end of the telescope.

Later Larry said:

“Here’s a gift for you EMR:

” CNT has updated our Housing + Transportation Affordability website to now cover over 330 metros in the U.S. with expanded and improved data. And our analysis shows that only two in five American communities—or 39 percent—are affordable for typical households when their transportation costs are considered along with housing costs.”

“http://www.cnt.org/news/2010/03/23/expanded-h-t-index-most-comprehensive-snapshot-of-neighborhood-affordability/

“The Housing + Transportation Affordability Index is an innovative tool that measures the true affordability of housing based on its location.

“http://htaindex.cnt.org/”

This REALLY IS a gift! EMR had not checked in with Center for Neighborhood Technology (CNT) for a long time. EMR worked with some of their colleagues on “Blueprint for a Better Region.”

CNT, their colleagues in other Institutions such as STPP and the funders behind CNT, STPP, et. al. were (are) the driving forces behind Location Efficient Mortgages.

Recall that a Location Efficient Mortgage criteria could have avoided the meltdown at Fannie and Freddie.

The idea of location efficiency is what the expanded H + T Index is intended to support. Take a look at those maps! Almost all the affordable places are inside R=20. The ones that are outside R=20, based on a quick review, are also the places with high foreclosure rates for ‘cheap’ houses.

SO!!! The Index is not ‘perfect’ but those places are reselling. It is the WSH, WL that are bringing down the economy.

The reason that the H + T is not perfect is that CNT had to rely on the same coarse data granularity that was the topic of earlier discussions. Even the foundations (Institutions) that fund CNT cannot afford to capture and aggregate data at that scale. It will take every Agency working together to do that job. At the present, governance practitioners see no reason to rock the boat. They get paid every two weeks and / or enjoy contributions.

So, while H + T is great and CNT gets the big picture, the data is open to spurious, mean-spirited, and misleading comments by the advocates of Business-As-Usual.

In a comment on the BACK TO THE FUTURE? post by Peter G., Groveton said:

“Interestingly, I am in Bad Homburg Germany today (outside Frankfurt). Looking for examples of EMR’s functional human settlement patterns. I see some of what EMR describes – dooryard, cluster, alpha community, clear edge, etc.”

Groveton:

When you read Chapter 34 of TRILO-G you will learn that Fahmah had the same observation. Once one has a handle on the Vocabulary, it is easy to see the physical ramifications.

Groveton went on to say:

“However, I see some of what Jim Bacon worries about too – sky high taxes, lots of restrictions, nanny statism.”

There is a much finer grained governance structure in Germany. Also, the governance structure is much more closely aligned to the settlement pattern. So the Agencies responsible for many of the Services and controls are much closer to those governed (no million population ‘municipalities’). If that were not the case, there would be much more carping than you heard.

“Hard to say whether the relative calm of relatively functional human settlement patterns is worth the loss in personal freedom.”

Actually it is not that hard.

The ‘personal freedom’ part of the equation is an illusion. That is because those who are enjoying the ‘freedom’ are not paying the full cost and the vast majority are not enjoying very much of anything.

In a recent comment TMT almost put his finger on the issue. He said “too many people lose.” The problem is that too many citizens THINK they are losing.

The vast majority of the citizens, especially those at the top of the Ziggurat, have been convinced by pandering politicians and those who profit from Business-As-Usual that they DESERVE Big Rock Candy Mountain. Larry said something like: “Those who have IT do not want less of IT.”

Well, it is quite simple:

Five percent of the population cannot continue to consume 25 percent of the resources.

It has been suggested that over the past 30 years a third of the total global natural resource base has been consumed (wasted). That may be a stretch but over the past 140 years it is clear that far more than half have disappeared. Even in the nation-state where those fortunate 5 percent live (the US of A) there is a widening Wealth Gap. Only 0.5 percent are really enjoying themselves.

In a global society with high literacy, instant communications and weapons of mass destruction, market economies and democratic governance processes cannot survive with the current trajectory.

The citizens of India and China what their share and so do those in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. There is not just that there not enough oil (cheap energy and cheap feed stocks), there is not enough water, top soil, marine and mineral resources, etc. to support anything like the current US of A consumption rates and settlement patterns for 6.5 Billion humans.

As Amitai E. says: There must be a balance of private rights and community responsibilities.

To do that with democratic processes and a market economies, the prices must be adjusted to reflect the true total costs determined by democratic processes.

In addition, the illusion of being able to live ‘the way we have been’ must be replaced by a realistic understanding of the real alternatives.

EMR

It is nearly inconceivable to EMR why otherwise intelligent humans continue to intentionally confuse themselves about the basics of human settlement patterns.

In comments on TWO NOTES ON SKETCH COMMENTS

Groveton says “facts are stubborn things.”

Facts ARE stubborn things and the facts Groveton presents appear to be correct.

However, as applied these fact are IRRELEVANT. With respect to human settlement patterns and other complex systems, a Comprehensive Conceptual Framework and a robust Vocabulary are essential to understand and apply facts.

MUNICIPAL BORDERS ARE IRRELEVANT AND PROFOUNDLY CONFUSING IF ONE IS TRYING TO UNDERSTAND HUMAN SETTLEMENT PATTERNS as the comments on TWO NOTES ON SKETCH COMMENTS document very clearly.

EMR has found that only a Comprehensive Conceptual Framework based on the organic structure which reflects the actual economic, social and physical activities of humans – and not arbitrary lines that reflected profoundly different conditions 250 years ago – is useful.

The serious consideration of human settlement patterns does not require use of the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework (NURCF). A scholar can develop a new framework if they invest the effort. But those concerned with achieving a sustainable trajectory for civilization should not delude themselves that they can make any progress without Comprehensive Conceptual framework.

In addition to the NURCF, the only other framework widely referred to in current discussions is the much more simplistic “Transect” developed by proponents of New Urbanism. New Urbanism is a well articulated design philosophy championed by founders and members of The Congress of New Urbanism and is only tangentially related to the work of SYNERGY/Planning.

As luck would have it, Groveton lives within a few miles of a place – Greater Reston – that has examples of most of the human settlement patterns components – Unit, Dooryard, Cluster, Neighborhood, Village and Community – that are the foundation of the NURCF. The developers, managers and many residents of Reston use the NURCF Vocabulary for all the components except “Dooryard” which is often neglected. The same is true for Burke Centre where the largest component is of Village scale. The Dooryard turns out to be very important both historically and in contemporary social and physical interactions. Dooryard was added to the Vocabulary after Burke Center and Fair Lakes were planned, designed and developed.

Greater Reston is still a Beta Community but, as is the case with The Woodlands, TX, Peachtree City, GA, Irvine, CA, Columbia, MD and other Planned New Communities (PNCs), if one understands what they are looking at they can understand the rudiments of the NURCF and thus of human settlement pattern functions. When one tries to apply these understandings to whole NURs – especially very large Urban agglomerations such as New York NUR, Paris NUR, Berlin NUR or even Stockholm NUR or Toronto NUR it is difficult without a firm foundation and an understanding of the scale of components. Groveton has traveled the world and says he has not seen the light, yet.

Those who have read EMRs columns and posts to this blog should have no trouble applying the concepts outlined in GETTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE – A SKETCH or in TWO NOTES ON SKETCH COMMENTS.

For those who want to catch up, a reading of STARK CONTRAST including a review of the Mid-Atlantic (Washington-Baltimore NUR to Central Carolina NUR) map that accompanies that essay and ‘reading’ the PowerPoint “New Urban Region Conceptual Framework” (both contained in PART FOURTEEN of TRILO-G) will answer every question and clarify every misunderstanding raised in the comments on TWO NOTES ON SKETCH COMMENTS.

EMR has stated that he does not have time to go back and repeat what he has already written, however, he will add a few notes from memory which should erase any lingering questions.

Reston and The Woodlands are the closest places to those who commented on the post so EMR will refer to them. (NB. The Woodlands follows the component Vocabulary of Columbia, MD – when The Woodlands was laid out the primary planning consultant, the firm for which EMR was VP for Planning and Design, was headquartered in Columbia. Community and Village are similar to Reston but “neighborhood” is applied to Cluster scale components and there are no Neighborhood scale components. This was also done in Franklin Farm, VA for ‘sales’ purposes over EMR’s objections.

The overall density of Reston is 13 persons per acre EXCLUDING the 1,100 acres + / – in the office / commercial area and EXCLUDING the Town Center. Cluster density ranges from 6 to 70 persons per acres. Over half the residential Clusters in Reston have over 30 persons per acre.

At the Neighborhood scale density ranges from 10 to 50 persons per acre. That includes the Common OpenSpace WITHIN Neighborhoods.

The Village Center Neighborhood of Lake Anne Village has the highest density and the greatest mix of uses.

As Joel Garreau pointed out in Edge City, NO ONE thinks Reston (or The Woodlands) are ‘high density’ yet that is the base number for STARK CONTRAST based on development between 1960 and 2000. With the end of cheap oil, the base density might have to be doubled to support more extensive use of shared-vehicle systems. This fact was pointed out in SKETCH. Even at twice the density at the Cluster scale, few would find the density ‘high.’ See READ IT NOW review of Green Metropolis. This increase in density would mean a one third reduction in the amount of land needed for Urban fabric even if the OpenSpace area remained the same. This is also noted in SKETCH.

Reston Town Center which is outside the 13 persons per acre (PRC) zoning (TNT Please Note) has Clusters that exceed 100 persons per acre. If the Town Center had a METRO station platform under Market Street and all the vacant land were built out at the current FARs within half a mile of the platform, Reston Town Center would be a prototype Village-scale station area and would have residential densities in the 80 to 130 person ranges and COULD achieve a relative Balance of J / H / S / R / A.

The requirement for a sustainable trajectory — the objective of SKETCH — is sustainable NURs made up of Balanced (Alpha) Communities. That means inside the Clear Edge agglomerations of Alpha Communites that look a lot like Reston plus some that look like North Arlington, South Arlington and Federal (Monumental) Core.

Accurate is in ‘the business” so he can translate all this to The Woodlands. By the way, while in the Woodlands, check out the same-house, same-builder data for houses in The Woodlands vs ones in scattered “subdivisions” west, north and east of the Centroid of the Houston NUR.

Back to Groveton, EMR has noted over and over that Fairfax County includes all or part of 11 Beta Communities. The comment on payment to Fairfax County is meaningless.

Net and Gross densities can be confusing. OpenSpace is often credited both within a component and to the next highest component for any given area of Urban fabric. Making this allocation clear is one of the is one benefits using the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework.

So that there is no confusion:

As clearly stated in STARK CONTRAST, The five persons per acre density is the GROSS density INSIDE Clear Edge around the Core of the NUR. It is assumed that there is 50 percent OpenSpace (water and land) inside the Clear Edge in the STARK CONTRAST calculations. That leaves 50 percent of the area in Urban fabric with a gross density of 10 persons per area AT THE COMMUNITY SCALE. (See note above concerning the impact of increased density.) Within any Alpha Community there would be from 30 to 50 percent OpenSpace made up of Community, Village, Neighborhood and Cluster scale serving land. All of the Planned New Communities (PNCs) listed above have around 40 percent OpenSpace within the communities.

Finally, Larry:

EMR understands the enormous scope of the education process necessary to erase generations of Myths. You may have heard of PROPERTY DYNAMICS? Any additional suggestions you have will be welcome.

But first to get the web site done.

EMR

The “historic health care reform” is NOT health care ‘reform.’ It is no more ‘health care reform’ than it is a replacement for cheap energy, a reversal of the decline of marine resources or a filter for polluted ground water. It is not a cure for the loss of biodiversity, continuing trade deficits, religious bigotry, state terrorism, climate change, dysfunctional settlement patterns or other serious problems too numerous to mention.

The health care ‘reform’ does not change health care research, it does not change health care education and is does not change health care economics beyond some patches, fixes – and new problems – related to how and by whom health care insurance is paid and how the benefits are distributed.

There will be some ripple effect but “health care reform” did not change the delivery of health care at the Regional scale (disaster response / shock and trauma / rare occurrences), it did not change health care delivery at the Community scales (birth to death health care) and it did nothing to improve the health care delivery at the Household scale.

Health care, like the other pressing problems facing humans, has been allowed to fester. It has been papered over because humans at the top of the Ziggurat had (PAST tense) resources to ignore or take ineffective faints at the problems – often involving throwing money at them.

As noted in prior posts by EMR, a healthy health care system will require:

Fundamental Transformation of human settlement pattern,
Fundamental Transformation of the governance structure, and
Fundamental Transformation of the economic system.

Do you want a good summary of how the later two Fundamental Transformations relate? Check out the WaPo Business Section feature for 21 March: “When Profit Outweighs Penalties.”

The three Fundamental Transformations will lead to profound shift in Consumption Patterns. However, something else is needed:

A NEW METRIC FOR CITIZEN WELL BEING – PART FIVE of TRILO-G.

What is a health related “new metric?”

Personal and Household responsibility for ones own health and the health of those in the Household.

This new metric must be backed up by a fair allocation of the costs to those who choose to ignore health risks and run up large costs – smokers, stimulant and electronic communication abusers, overeaters and the sleep and exercise deprived, ARE YOU LISTENING?

Why the focus on individual responsibility? The idea that a ‘doctor’ can ‘manage’ ones health is a tragic Myth akin to those that drive dysfunctional human settlement patterns. One of the responsibilities of being an educated citizen in contemporary society is taking personal responsibility.

Those who devote the time and effort to becoming a health care professional must be fairly compensated. The idea that everyone can afford a doctor to manage their health is a preposterous as the idea that everyone can afford a Single Household Dwelling on a five acre lot or that any Agency (or all levels of Agencies together) can afford a Mobility and Access system which allows everyone to take a vehicle trip where ever they want, when ever they want. For those who have been paying attention, that is especially true for Large, Private Vehicles.

What would a new health care delivery system look like?

In December of 1979 EMR published an essay titled “Ideas for the 80s.” One of the ideas was Telework – which by that time was already an ‘old’ idea but Telework was not yet on the screen of most. There were nine other ideas including a new Regional and Community health care delivery system that would be responsible for providing recreation and exercise facilities and activities as well as delivering health care at the Cluster, Neighborhood, Village, Community and Regional scales. There is need for research, standards, coordination and emergency response at the MegaRegional, Continental and Global scales but health care is PRIMARILY a Regional issue.

Essays such as “Ideas for the 80s” will be among the resources available on EMRs new website, coming soon.

EMR

Excuse the new post but there are two very important points raised by the comments on the Sketch Comments post:

In the first comment, Not Ed Risse (welcome back!) said:

“Henry George is irrelevant when exclusionary zoning prevents higher density housing that an otherwise free market would support and build.

“Most of the dysfunction you decry is the result of government control of land use, not the decisions of ill informed consumers or speculative developers.”

EMR agrees. If one searches “cambium layer” in The Shape of the Future they will find text that articulates that point and puts in the context of the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework.

NER used the term “most” to start the second paragraph and this is VERY important. There are also other forces at work – within the context of dysfunctional governance structure.

For example suing Arlington County and HUD over The First Baptist Church of Clarendon’s multi-use plan on First Amendment grounds is misuse of the US of A Constitution to promote personal privilege over Neighborhood and Village interests. WaPo 21 March.

In an amazing juxtaposition, on 22 March a similar plan by a Swedish firm is covered in WaPo with the headline “A sign of life in commercial real estate?”

In fact buildings near METRO stations (the facts in both cases) with a creative mix of use can help meet the need for METRO to become more functional by balancing the travel demand and by decreasing the need for any vehicle trip to support many of the requirements of quality life styles in the station areas.

And speaking of quality of life…

In the second comment Larry said:

“I think if you interviewed the 100-mile a day folks – that most of them would agree that their work/home situation IS..DYSFUNCTIONAL …”

YES, they do know that but they continue to believe the Myths that prevents rational actions AND as Larry said THEY HAVE NO BETTER OPTION due to the dysfunctional governance structure.

He goes on to say:

“…but they’re not going to live in a 1000 square foot hovel with strange characters hanging out on the streets and schools where their kids are not safe and can’t learn.”

If Larry could just wrap his brain around the fact that 5 persons per acre within the Clear Edge and 10 to 30 person per acre in the built environment INSIDE the Clear Edge has NOTHING to do with “1,000 sq ft hovels and strange characters.” See STARK CONTRAST.

If one wants to encounter ‘strange characters’ at the Dooryard and Clusters scales look to LOWER density areas. Check the data on SubRegions (Inside the Clear Edge and Outside the Clear Edge.) with 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 persons per acre. You will find the higher the density, the LOWER the number that fall outside the bell curve on ALL measures of social compatibility – a more formal way to say ‘strange characters.’ See EMR post on Green Metropolis INCLUDING discussion of the four tragic flaws.

For example one will find the LOWER the density the higher the per capita ‘deaths at the hands of strangers.’ Spotsy Cnty is far more dangerous than Arlington Cnty according to Prof Lucy’s research for example.

Myths are powerful forces that befuddle even the most thoughtful.

EMR

The ‘Sketch’ posted 15 March 2010 generated over 40 comments to date. As a former student Emailed: “I hope they are having fun because they have not added much to the prospect of evolving sustainable human settlement patterns.”

At the urging of several who responded directly, EMR provides these additional observations on the topic:

The comments on “A Sustainable Future Sketch Process” were frightening and at the same time reassuring.

They were frightening because they demonstrate the how far some citizens are from understanding the parameters of functional settlement patterns. Geographic Illiteracy, Spacial Obliviousness, Developmental Topographic Disorientation – what ever one calls it – has a terrible collective impact on the future of civilization.

They are reassuring because they demonstrate that the organization and content of TRILO-G focuses on the right issues.

Volume I of TRILO-G (the first five PARTs) addresses the reasons why citizens do not yet understand the importance of human settlement patterns. The comments on the Sketch highlight the need for a new Conceptual Framework to guide the use and management of land. (THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND – PART FOUR of TRILO-G)

Three realities spelled out in PART FOUR are not yet well recognized:

1. There is a profound difference between land and land use patterns suitable for Urban use (serving the daily needs of 95 percent of the population and covering a maximum of 5 percent of the land area) and land and land use patterns suitable for NonUrban use (serving the needs of 100 percent of the population but directly involving the daily activities of 5 percent of the population and occupying 95 percent of the land area).

2. The Use and Management of land is different from the ownership of land for both Urban and NonUrban activities.

3. There are many rational choices for land ownership beyond ‘private’ and ‘public.’

EMR will not try to address all the misunderstandings illustrated by the comments but will focus on four topics:

Detroit, Land Speculation, Growth Projections, Settlement Pattern Choices and Commuting.

DETROIT

Had commentors bothered to read what Dave Bing and others are actually doing in Detroit – including support for Urban Agriculture – they would know that what is being proposed and attempted in Detroit is similar to what EMR has advocated for over two decades. Note that in the original Sketch post there is reference to ‘Subdivision Recycling’ and to ‘Parcel Consolidation’ (which includes Parcel Reconsolidation). In the mid 80’s SYNERGY clients were implementing these tactics to increase the flux of Urban activity where that was logical and remove Urban land uses where that made sense.

Beyond the MainStream Media babble concerning Detroit, there is an important issue that may or may not be adequately addressed in the strategies for a new Greater Detroit Core for the Detroit / Windsor NUR:

Are the changes in human settlement pattern resulting in Balance and Critical Mass necessary to support both Urban and NonUrban economic, social and physical interrelationship upon which a sustainable society must be based?

Is Balance and Critical Mass being addressed for each of the organic components of human settlement pattern?

In other words, will the result of Subdivision Recycling and Parcel Reconsolidation be functional human settlement patterns or just a hodgepodge checkerboard of land uses created by removal of derelict buildings? The 50,000 foot perspective noted in THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND is a place to start to get an answer to this question.

By the way, ‘farmland lost’ is NOT farmland lost FOREVER. Some of the best land for agriculture has been covered with dysfunctionally low density Urban land uses and can and should be recycled. Urban agriculture programs are demonstrating this in North America, the Carribean, Europe and Asia.

LAND SPECULATION

AZA who commented on the WSH, WL post was taking good notes at one of EMR’s lectures:

If a speculator pays market value for vacant and or underutilized land and pays the carrying costs (e.g. receives no cash flow from the land) for 17 years in the average case the Net Present Value (NVP) of the investment is ZERO when inflation is factored in. That is ZERO $. LAND SPECULATION DOES NOT PAY.

The 17 year parameter is based on actual experience in the Northern Part of Virginia over the period 1960 to 2000. The result is the same if one buys the land with borrowed funds and pays interest or if they buy the land for cash and Alternative Investment Opportunity is applied to determine NPV. If the land generates income during the holding period, that cash flow extends the time until NPV goes to Zero. A good rule of thumb is when buying vacant land to have a three year backdoor al all times.

Over time, interest eats speculators lunch. Amateurs do not know this and agents who profit from real estate churn will never disclose it.

If all speculatively held vacant and underutilized land (for which there will NEVER be a market due to the vast overbuild for Urban uses at functional patterns and densities) was put on the market at the same time, the price of vacant and underutilized land would fall.

It would likely fall to the point that it would be feasible to but it for extensive (aka, NonUrban) land uses. That is essentially what is happening in Detroit for high value crops and, as EMR noted four years ago, in selected areas in the Heartland.

The fact that paying the full cost of Urban services would help end land speculation is reason why speculators attacked Henry George with such vehemence and still do to this day.

A major housing downturn (See WSH, WL) is just what is needed to bring land speculation into perspective. The problem is that loss of dwelling values is now on course to Collapse the economy and destroy the economic foundations for millions of Households who had no idea they were contributing to Collapse.

GROWTH (DECLINE) PROJECTIONS

In the comments following the Sketch post, Larry G said:

“There are two big issues with growth.

“1. – The first is how do you predict growth?

“about the only thing I have seen is you look at the past 10 years and then assume the next 10 will be similar. That seems pretty dumb to me …”

There are a number of BIG potential errors generated by ten year projections keyed to the census. For example.

In the early 70s EMR managed a study of the Balto / Wash Corridor as a consultant to Wash COG and Balto COG (a joint Agency study). (Each COG represented two of the 4 key municipal jurisdictions in the Corridor.) The team was amazed to fine that based on the 1950 to 1960 growth rate, the 1960 to 1970 growth projection had been pegged by the two Agencies at ‘X.’ However, the actual growth from 1960 t0 1970 was 1 / 7th of X. Being off by a factor of 7 can have BIG consequences.

An interesting footnote: The Planned New Community of Columbia, MD is in the Balto – Wash Corridor and the economic model was based on the Balto COG projection. Instead of getting ‘Y’ percent of the ‘X’ growth, it got 8 Y percent of 1 / 7 X and came out ahead of projection. Most of the Corridor growth happened in Columbia – a 13,000 acre patch of the 200,000 + / – acre Corridor. This was an early illustration for EMR of the vast amount of the vacant and underutilized land within 25 miles of the Centroid of major Urban agglomerations.

To avoid going off track, the Sketch EMR posted suggests an ANNUAL review of the MegaRegional numbers based on what is actually happening. There are a number of indicators that can be monitored to be sure Agencies are preparing for the right parameters.

“2. – the second is even harder. Let’s assume that you correctly predict a certain amount of growth.

“Now tell me where that growth will allocate itself geographically – honest injun – no handwaving or rope-a-dope theories.. just lay it out in plain English.”

If the projection is made by professionals who know the entire Region and have no bias (such as having consulting contracts with jurisdictions that are governed by ‘pro-growth’ Agencies), past experience and alternative scenarios – for example in the above example, Jim Rouse was offering a far better product that any other developer in the Balto – Wash Corridor – plus annual monitoring, the projections as to location can be very close to what actually happens.

In the years ahead there is the probability of loss of population and Jobs for those Communities that do not take actions to evolve Balance and Critical Mass – as in Detroit and many other places that get less publicity.

“The Fredericksburg area is project to DOUBLE in population in the next 30 years. Where will it allocate itself geographically?”

First the big picture:

If one adds up all the municipal / SubRegion projections (in the case of VA, the PDC numbers) across the MegaRegion they will find FAR more growth projected than is projected at the Regional scale. If Greater Fredericksburg doubles, other SubRegions will grow less than projected and / or others will shrink.

The Wash COG SubRegional projections have been quite accurate over the past three decades. The staff has wisely expanded the analysis area beyond the COG jurisdictions borders. If they had included the entire National Capital SubRegion of the Washington-Baltimore NUR in each analysis, the projections would have been right on. The distribution of jobs and households by municipal jurisdiction, however, has varied widely.

On the SubRegional scale:

If Greater Fredericksburg grows by 50%, 100% or 200% over the next 30 years there is plenty vacant and underutilized land to accommodate that growth ON LESS LAND THAN IS NOW URBANIZED. The bigger issue is to maintain Balance and Critical Mass.

SETTLEMENT PATTERN CHOICES AND COMMUTING

As EMR noted In the WSH, WL comments, EMR will not add additional comments on the WSH, WL string. Larry posted the following to which EMR will respond here:

“I think part of the job here is to understand why 300,000 people live in the Fredericksburg Area and at least 50% of those who work – commute 100 miles a day round trip if [because] the option of having a nice place to live for the same amount of money existed [does not exist] in NoVa.”

The first ‘job’ is for Larry to understand that these ‘100 mile commuters’ work AND LIVE in the Northern Part of Virginia, not somewhere else. SubRegions and Regions are determined by the pattern of economic, social and physical activity.

“Folks do not commute 100 miles a day – every day because they misunderstand their options – right?”

In fact they do. They do that because they misunderstand their options and because of what they believe to be the facts are in reality Myths that are spelled out in The Shape of the Future (SotF). The HANDBOOK process has an exercise on over coming Myths.

Why they are wrong is a complex issue and one of the reasons SotF was written. As noted below, there is an entire industry that profits from perpetuating Myths so they can avoid paying (or passing) on the total cost of their actions – they are called ‘externalities.’ These externalities turn up miles away – in the Chesapeake Bay and in the federal budget for “commuter assistance.”

“One must assume that most of them have made the tradeoff calculations correctly.”

Sorry, they do not. And the problem did not start in 1980 or in 2003. For 90 years land owners, developers and builders have relied on subsidies and not having to pay the full cost of their actions. These Enterprises make more money in the short term if they perpetuate the Myths. AND after they move in, the homeowners EVERY DAY THEY LIVE IN A WSH, WL also enjoy subsides paid for by those who have chosen more sustainable settlement patterns.

“Thousands of them drive 5 miles or less to a bus or van – and they do this every day 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year – for something they want and consider worth the sacrifice.”

Well that “sacrifice” by a small minority of the workers in the NUR is costing the majority in the NUR (8 plus million of them) AND all tax payers in the US of A a lot of money. If the minority had to pay the full cost of the services they would make different choices.

“If the only answer to this is to make this option more expensive…”

As in ‘pay the full cost’…

“… it still won’t change how people feel about the appeal of living 50 miles from where they work.”

That is doubtful. EMR’s position is that on a level playing field a well informed buyer will question and abandon the Myths that drive dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

Recall that the only way one can help commuters is to help them become non-commuters. See BRZ Column # 92 “Solving the Commuter Problem” 5 Feb 2007 concerning the expansion of VRE.

Recall also that in any Alpha Community (inside the Clear Edge around the Core of the Region or outside the Clear Edge there will always be SOME who ‘commute.’ Commuting, however is not a sustainable home – work relationship for a significant percentage of the population in any Alpha Community.

“I think you have to come at this problem accepting that reality.”

NOW YOU ARE TALKING!

“Here’s an essential truth – People can live like Groveton lives – on a large lot with well/septic without traffic noise or sketchy characters in the neighborhood and schools that give their kids a genuine opportunity to grow up with a good education for 2/3 to 3/4 less than it costs Groveton if they are willing to commute 8 times further a day than Groveton.”

Let us leave Groveton out of this. Both Jim Bacon and EMR agree that Groveton and others who have worked hard and done well should be able to live where and how they choose, as long as they pay the full cost of their decisions – including ALL externalities.

As EMR has noted repeatedly, most of those who live in Groveton’s zip code could not (or would not choose to live there) if they had to pay the full cost of their location choice. See The 10X Rule.

“Why would folks do that?

Because of Geographic Illiteracy? Because of Spacial Obliviousness engendered by Autonomobile Myths? Because of Developmental Topographic Disorientation?

“until we understand why and deal with it on some level other than financial punishment …”

Not ‘punishment’, just paying their fair share.

“… of those who engage in it.. I don’t think we are anywhere close to [support for F] fundamental [T] transformation because people – have to want the solution rather than have it imposed on them.”

And the longer pandering politicians and Business-As-Usual advocates can keep citizens from understanding reality, the longer they will think something is being ‘imposed.’

“Either you think most of these folks are just plain stupid and don’t realize how dumb they are in choosing their commute – or… they do know and there are no better options for them (in their minds).”

Ah “BETTER OPTIONS”!

THAT is a BIG part of the answer. Where folks do have BETTER OPTIONS they take them. That is way those better located Units sell for so much more.

But again, there is a whole industry that makes more profit in a shorter time by perpetuating Myths and dysfunctional human settlement patterns that consume vastly more land than is necessary for quality human habitations because the Enterprises do not pay full cost of their actions. These Enterprises, of course, share the profits with governance practitioners through political contributions and support Institutions to perpetuate the dysfunctional processes. What Prof. Lucy call the Tyranny of Easy Development Decisions.

That is why the creative use of Private Transfer Fees might be a good idea to encourage more functional settlement patterns and reward developers and builders for making the right decision without having to resort to bribes and subsides.

EMR

As documented in The Shape of the Future Vol I – and reinforced by TRILO-G – achieving economic prosperity, social stability and environmental sustainability depends on evolving functional human settlement patterns.

Citizens of Virginia the question is:

How do citizens of the Commonwealth implement something like the six overarching strategies to achieve functional human settlement patterns outlined in Vol II of The Shape of the Future?

For those who have not been paying attention, here is a sketch:

1. Start with a Wright Plan* for ALL the territory that directly impacts the use and management of land in the Commonwealth. That means doing a Wright Plan for the Washington-Baltimore NUR, the Richmond NUR and the Hampton Roads NUR as well as the DelMarVa, Appalachian and East Carolina USRs. (It would be helpful if the Philadelphia NUR and the Central Carolina NUR would also undertake a Wright Plan but that is not essential.)

2. Based on best available data, project future growth / change in Jobs and Housing for 10, 20 and 30 years by NUR and USR. Then allocate thse projections to coterminous SubRegions within the NURs and USRs.

3. Quantify the demand for land for Jobs, Houses, Services and Recreation by SubRegion starting at the Centroids and working out. This means the Centroids of the NURs and the Centroids of the Urban agglomerations of Beta Community scale or larger within USRs. Use as the basis of per capita consumption, the patterns and densities needed for developers to make a 8 percent profit if ALL the location-variable costs are fairly allocated.

NB. This calculation will document the vast OVERSUPPLY of already Urbanized land. (See “Stark Contrast” in Chapter 49 of TRILO-G. For this reason, the Initial Quantification would allocate twice as much land as will be needed to meet projected 10, 20 and 30 year demand so that the process of DeUrbanization (including Subdivision Recycling and Parcel Consolidation) can proceed from the least well located land for Urban uses to the better located land. (The value of land for agriculture, forestry, OpenSpace, extraction, and environmental functions would be factored into the process in step 5.)

4. By SubRegion allocate the amount of land Quantified:

A. INSIDE Clear Edges around the Cores of NURs (Urbanside that includes OpenSpace), and

B. OUTSIDE Clear Edges around the Cores of NURs (Countryside that includes Open Land and Urban enclaves that are within the Countryside (components of Beta Balanced But Disaggregated Communities) including larger Urban agglomerations in USRs.)

For illustrations of the boundaries of allocation see PowerPoint “New Urban Region Conceptual Framework.” in Chapter 49 of TRILO-G.

5. Start the Three Step HANDBOOK process for every Beta Community in each of the SubRegions within the entire Wright Planned territory. For an overview of how the early phases of such a process might work see EMRs 16 Feb 2004 BRZ column (#25) “The Shape of Richmond’s Future.”

Steps 1. through 4. would take no more than 5 days and would be repeated every year for 20 years to reflect changes in economic, social and physical reality, including feedback from the Step 5. processes. After the first two years, the calculations and allocations would be carried out in a transparent on-line process by a constituent assembly elected to represent to entire territory.

Step 5. would be carried out as an ongoing democratic process as outlined in HANDBOOK – TRILO-G – PART TWELVE.

The questions remains:

By the time a majority of citizens come to understand the need for such a process to achieve Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patters, will there be resources left to implement a sustainable trajectory?

* The term Wright Plan is named after and based on the 1928 plan for New York State prepared by Henry Wright. Google turns up information on Henry Wright and there is an illustration of his New York plan in Lewis Mumford’s book The City in History. The Wright Plan comes very close to allocating land in the categories suggested in THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND – PART FOUR of TRILO-G.

EMR

Building on EMR’s previous post, I bring to the attention of Bacon’s Rebellion readers a Congressional Oversight Report, published February, “Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability.” The executive summary states the problem so pithily that I quote from it directly:

Between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms. Nearly half are at present “underwater” – that is, the borrower owes more than the underlying property is currently worth. Commercial property values have fallen more than 40 percent since the beginning of 2007. Increased vacancy rates, which now range from eight percent for multifamily housing to 18 percent for office buildings, and falling rents, which have declined 40 percent for office space and 33 percent for retail space, have exerted a powerful downward pressure on the value of commercial properties.

The largest commercial real estate loan losses are projected for 2011 and beyond; losses at banks alone could range as high as $200-$300 billion. The stress tests conducted last year for 19 major financial institutions examined their capital reserves only through the end of 2010. Even more significantly, small and mid-sized banks were never subjected to any exercise comparable to the stress tests, despite the fact that small and mid-sized banks are proportionately even more exposed than their larger counterparts to commercial real estate loan losses.

A significant wave of commercial mortgage defaults would trigger economic damage that could touch the lives of nearly every American. Empty office complexes, hotels, and retail stores could lead directly to lost jobs. Foreclosures on apartment complexes could push families out of their residences, even if they had never missed a rent payment. Banks that suffer, or are afraid of suffering, commercial mortgage losses could grow even more reluctant to lend, which could in turn further reduce access to credit for more businesses and families and accelerate a negative economic cycle.

That’s just commercial real estate. We haven’t even begun to talk about the coming wave of defaults in Alt-A or Option ARMs in the residential market that could be as disastrous as the collapse of the sub-prime market. It looks like we’re in for another round of deflation in real estate prices. Then, there’s the continuing de-leveraging of the American consumer generally.

Property tax revenues… down. Sales tax revenues… down. Municipal governments will be in a world of hurt for some time to come. My sympathy goes to anyone living in one of Virginia’s “fast-growth” counties because that’s where most of the damage will be located.

The 12 March front page headline in WaPo says it all:

“Foreclosure wave threatens stability of housing market.”

Do not wait for a journalist to package the contemporary condition of the housing market for you. Go to Realtor.com and check out what has happened this week in your Village, your Neighborhood, your Cluster or even your Dooryard. In just the last few days the picture has changed dramatically.

The snow has melted? Daylight Savings Time starts tomorrow? A week until Spring arrives? Who knows the catalyst?

Whatever it is, houses that have been off the market – or have not been listed in years – are flooding back and many are $100K below what they and similar dwellings were listed for just a few months ago.

There appears to be a rush to move foreclosures, do short sales and get out of underwater dwellings, especially the WSH, WL dwellings.

If one looks at the national scene, Virginia and especially the National Capital SubRegion (Washington MSA is a passable surrogate) SHOULD be better positioned than most vis a vis employment / unemployment, foreclosures and dwelling prices.

Those who applied an analysis of Radial Bands (a tool of Regional Metrics) to get a handle on the housing market / foreclosure patterns will not be surprise at the spacial distribution but most will be shocked at the scope of the value loss.

On 11 March CNN had a story that was similar the WaPo story a day later. CNN painted a more rosie picture in the headline and the first few paragraphs but came clean later in the story. The reader comments were very pointed. For example: “How can you distort the truth just to save your real estate ad revenue…” Sounds like they had read THE ESTATES MATRIX… (Today’s WaPo Real Estate section was four pages and the feature story was how to do a short sale.)

The other shoe – commercial real estate – is about to drop. Insiders have been saying for a year that April of 2010 will be the month.

And now the REALLY scarey news:

On Friday WaPo headlined: “No rush to restructure Fannie, Freddie; Who wants to topple the housing giants? Politics, shaky economy make it an unsavory task for Obama, analysts say.”

Well yes, but until there is a Fundamental Transformation – including rational location criteria for residential lending – the problem will only grow worse.

As much as Groveton, rightly, beats on the Clown Show in Richmond, let us not forget the Super Clown Show in the Federal District.

As EMR has argued in these posts for six years:

WSH, WL.

(For those just coming in, WSH, WL means Wrong Size House, Wrong Location. See TRILO-G – PART SIX – Chapter 22 – Without Shelter: The Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis. Also keyword search ‘affordable and accessible’ in Chapters 46, 47 & 48. )

EMR

It was such a strange scene, I had to pinch myself. Here at Virginia Commonwealth University, in the middle of Richmond, that “hotbed of civil rest” about a thousand students held signs touting “Keep Your Gospel Off My Gonads” and other slogans as they listened to a professor note how the father of computer science was openly gay.

EMR has NEVER been able to figure out why Jim Bacon gets SO upset about Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW). He has his hands full getting out Bloomergeddon, why take on this windmill?

Of course, in the end Jim is correct:

The University of East Anglia scientist’s arrogance has not DISPROVED anything,

This dispute will leave far more casualties than winners, and

There are far more current, important challenges about which there is little controversy than there are resources to address them.

In comments submitted on Jim’s post on the topic (“Cuccinelli is Right” – did not everyone know he was far right?) Larry and Waldo put the East Anglia controversy in perceptive – the helium balloon analogy is priceless.

TMT and Larry do a nice job of sorting out the ‘right to sue’ issue.

But Peter has the best (if not last) word:

Why with all the other things going on is THIS a priority for any elected official in the Commonwealth?

See for example this weekends’s WaPos on the economy, China, giving up on trying to stop radioactive shipments into the US of A… Those containers from Iran via Hong Kong will arrive in Hampton Roads, sue about that…

Here is why all the heat over AGW:

A lot of big money will be lost if something serious is done about reducing Green House Gases (GHG) – which most agree needs to be done to solve a lot of other problems including air and water pollution, the cost and security of energy supplies.

So with Business-As-Usual money at stake, fire up the opinion tanks with some extra donations to take attention off the real issues.

Here is something else to chew on. On 23 Feb WaPo published a nice colored Quake potential map and a story about the need to consider the 430 million humans now living in high risk areas – tens of millions of them poor.

Sure enough, a quake hit Chile last night. There will be less loss of life than in Haiti but the cost will be in the Trillions.

So what if the loss of ice caps (no one disagrees that glaciers and ice caps are shrinking – just how fast they are going) has a direct impact on the tectonic plates and THAT is triggering a rash of earth quakes. Just saying…

The overarching goal must be to shift human Urban agglomerations away from locations, settlement patterns and cheap construction that makes humans and their economic, social and physical well being susceptible to fire, flood, hurricanes, quakes, etc.

As the WaPo map shows, and as events of the past 50 years document, Urban settlement patterns are now vulnerable AND they are energy hogs and untransportable to boot.

Here is a thought:

Now that there is a major shift from Cap and Trade to Criteria for Energy Consumption Sectors to address GHG this is an opportunity to make clear the impact of human settlement patterns on energy, safety and happiness.

Let us turn heat to light.

EMR