SORTING WHEAT FROM CHAFF CONCERNING THE SUSTAINABLE FUTURE SKETCH
EMR will move on from THE SKETCH soon but several key points were raised by Larry, Groveton and others in comments following ONE MORE NOTE ON SKETCH COMMENTS that may be lost without special attention. This is the last post from which EMR will NOT delete comments intended to belittle, confuse, embarrass and waste time. That will make multiple posts on a single topic required less often.
Larry said:
“well – at least you looked.”
More than that Larry, EMR appreciated the lead to the Melissa Data Carrier Route site.
“while the data is not quite a granular as you might prefer, I think it does get past the zip code dilemma and I find it interesting that someone has melded/fused income and wealth data to end up with a geographical distribution.”
There is one reason they did this:
A lot of advertisers are willing to buy the information and for them, it is ‘accurate enough.’ They are not concerned with the need to achieve a Balance of economic, social and physical activity – in fact they sell more stuff if there is no Balance within and no Critical Mass of settlement pattern components.
And sell they do. Since signing on to the site EMR has received two personal Emails and a newsletter from Melissa employees. EMR put a tracer on the registration and it will be interesting to see who they sell the information to. All this advertising frenzy will end when citizens wake up and advertising is phased out because it is no longer effective in convincing citizens they need to consume. (More on that soon.)
Larry went on to say:
“so maybe not academic nor implementation …”
Glad that is now straight!!
“I dunno.. but it sure looks like data that could form a better basis for looking more closely at actual settlement pattern attributes.”
The big issue is, as EMR noted before, WHO WILL PAY for the data and analysis that is needed. More on that below.
“I wonder what would be the things that would need to be looked at in particular?
Same things, just looked at within a Comprehensive Conceptual Framework – and through the right end of the telescope.
Later Larry said:
“Here’s a gift for you EMR:
” CNT has updated our Housing + Transportation Affordability website to now cover over 330 metros in the U.S. with expanded and improved data. And our analysis shows that only two in five American communities—or 39 percent—are affordable for typical households when their transportation costs are considered along with housing costs.”
“http://www.cnt.org/news/2010/03/23/expanded-h-t-index-most-comprehensive-snapshot-of-neighborhood-affordability/
“The Housing + Transportation Affordability Index is an innovative tool that measures the true affordability of housing based on its location.
“http://htaindex.cnt.org/”
This REALLY IS a gift! EMR had not checked in with Center for Neighborhood Technology (CNT) for a long time. EMR worked with some of their colleagues on “Blueprint for a Better Region.”
CNT, their colleagues in other Institutions such as STPP and the funders behind CNT, STPP, et. al. were (are) the driving forces behind Location Efficient Mortgages.
Recall that a Location Efficient Mortgage criteria could have avoided the meltdown at Fannie and Freddie.
The idea of location efficiency is what the expanded H + T Index is intended to support. Take a look at those maps! Almost all the affordable places are inside R=20. The ones that are outside R=20, based on a quick review, are also the places with high foreclosure rates for ‘cheap’ houses.
SO!!! The Index is not ‘perfect’ but those places are reselling. It is the WSH, WL that are bringing down the economy.
The reason that the H + T is not perfect is that CNT had to rely on the same coarse data granularity that was the topic of earlier discussions. Even the foundations (Institutions) that fund CNT cannot afford to capture and aggregate data at that scale. It will take every Agency working together to do that job. At the present, governance practitioners see no reason to rock the boat. They get paid every two weeks and / or enjoy contributions.
So, while H + T is great and CNT gets the big picture, the data is open to spurious, mean-spirited, and misleading comments by the advocates of Business-As-Usual.
In a comment on the BACK TO THE FUTURE? post by Peter G., Groveton said:
“Interestingly, I am in Bad Homburg Germany today (outside Frankfurt). Looking for examples of EMR’s functional human settlement patterns. I see some of what EMR describes – dooryard, cluster, alpha community, clear edge, etc.”
Groveton:
When you read Chapter 34 of TRILO-G you will learn that Fahmah had the same observation. Once one has a handle on the Vocabulary, it is easy to see the physical ramifications.
Groveton went on to say:
“However, I see some of what Jim Bacon worries about too – sky high taxes, lots of restrictions, nanny statism.”
There is a much finer grained governance structure in Germany. Also, the governance structure is much more closely aligned to the settlement pattern. So the Agencies responsible for many of the Services and controls are much closer to those governed (no million population ‘municipalities’). If that were not the case, there would be much more carping than you heard.
“Hard to say whether the relative calm of relatively functional human settlement patterns is worth the loss in personal freedom.”
Actually it is not that hard.
The ‘personal freedom’ part of the equation is an illusion. That is because those who are enjoying the ‘freedom’ are not paying the full cost and the vast majority are not enjoying very much of anything.
In a recent comment TMT almost put his finger on the issue. He said “too many people lose.” The problem is that too many citizens THINK they are losing.
The vast majority of the citizens, especially those at the top of the Ziggurat, have been convinced by pandering politicians and those who profit from Business-As-Usual that they DESERVE Big Rock Candy Mountain. Larry said something like: “Those who have IT do not want less of IT.”
Well, it is quite simple:
Five percent of the population cannot continue to consume 25 percent of the resources.
It has been suggested that over the past 30 years a third of the total global natural resource base has been consumed (wasted). That may be a stretch but over the past 140 years it is clear that far more than half have disappeared. Even in the nation-state where those fortunate 5 percent live (the US of A) there is a widening Wealth Gap. Only 0.5 percent are really enjoying themselves.
In a global society with high literacy, instant communications and weapons of mass destruction, market economies and democratic governance processes cannot survive with the current trajectory.
The citizens of India and China what their share and so do those in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. There is not just that there not enough oil (cheap energy and cheap feed stocks), there is not enough water, top soil, marine and mineral resources, etc. to support anything like the current US of A consumption rates and settlement patterns for 6.5 Billion humans.
As Amitai E. says: There must be a balance of private rights and community responsibilities.
To do that with democratic processes and a market economies, the prices must be adjusted to reflect the true total costs determined by democratic processes.
In addition, the illusion of being able to live ‘the way we have been’ must be replaced by a realistic understanding of the real alternatives.
EMR
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