By Steve Haner

One nice thing about detailed economic prognostication is that the predictions can later be checked and compared to reality. But the grim forecast for Virginia produced recently by the Weldon-Cooper Center for Public Service will have done its political damage long before the results are tallied.
The predictions of job losses and at best a flat state economy for 2026 were highlighted on the Richmond Times-Dispatch front page and gave Cardinal News editor Dwayne Yancey fodder to predict it will hurt Republicans in the coming election.ย The spin will intensify when Democratic campaign messaging kicks in, with a heavy dose of blame placing on President Donald Trump.
Weldon-Cooper has long been the trusted repository of key economic and U.S. Census data. It has earned quite a bit of brand impact and that is why this report is potent political ammunition.
Weldon-Cooper is new to the economic forecasting game. It started publishing what is planned to be a quarterly analysis in February, โas a useful resource for the good of the Commonwealth.โ The rule on economic models is the same as on all the others out there: all models are wrong, but some models are useful.ย Many economists count themselves as good at predictions if they successfully call four of the next two recessions.
Weldon-Cooper is not displaying any genius in predicting that federal government layoffs and the wave of new tariffs will have a disproportionate impact on Virginia.ย Virginia is home to major federal agencies, huge federal contracting operations, and a major deep channel port. ย
But this new August report is already proving its April report was too pessimistic.ย The April report predicted Virginia would lose 32,000 jobs overall during 2025 and the August report has already retreated and now predicts 11,700 fewer jobs this year. Too late however — the higher 32,000 figure is already highlighted in Democratic attack ads on Republicans and expect it to stay there despite Weldon-Cooperโs downward revision.
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