Bacon's Rebellion

  • Ignore the Polls. Vote

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Kerry Dougherty

    These are scary times in Virginia. If you believe the political polls – and there’s no reason you should, they’ve been wildly wrong for years in the Old Dominion – we may be about to fork over all of state government to radical leftists.

    It’s almost as if voters have forgotten what happened a short five years ago when Democrat Ralph Northam shut down schools for more than a year, locked us out of our churches and synagogues and forced even five-year- olds to walk around in filthy, useless face diapers.

    God help us all if there’s another public emergency during a Spanberger governorship.

    But even without a pandemic a Governor Spanberger would be dangerous. For a start she wants to dismantle Virginia’s Right-To-Work laws, so if you’ve dreamed of being forced to join a union, this is definitely your girl. Continue reading.

  • Will Spanberger Sweep in the Democratic Ticket?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    An illustrated image of a woman in a business suit holding a broom outside a large building with columns, smiling confidently.
    Image credit: Grok

    by Paul Goldman

    As a general rule, a big underdog like the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee would gain a few points as the campaigned closed. But the polls are indicating a move towards the Democrats. If true, this could be enough to lift the struggling Democratic LG and AG nominees to victory. 

    Historical statistical analysis says there should be a Democratic sweep if Spanberger wins by more than nine points. Based on the 2017 statewide contest held in the shadow of a Trump presidency, a 10-point or more win would seem expected. In this regard, the mediocre approval ratings given GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin also has contributed to the Spanberger margin. The Youngkin aides promoting him as presidential timber must’ve grown up on Easter Island, where all the forest is long gone. The so-called “Youngkin Brand“ hardly seems useful in 2028 if it gets wiped out in his home state. Thus, his relatively lack of engagement seemed odd. 

    The best Democratic gubernatorial candidate performance in the modern era occurred in 1985. Democrat Jerry Baliles won by slightly more than 10%. As I said months ago, the historical statistics indicated Spanberger should break Jerry’s record. At the time the polls were suggesting the gubernatorial race would be close. This never made historical statistical sense.

    In terms of the political chessboard, one has to say Spanberger’s team ran an exceptionally disciplined race. I have criticized them for leaving her running mates twisting in the wind, at least by campaign standards when I used to run campaigns. In my book, it was unnecessary in relation to her winning big. But that being said, she had the right to do it and for her it’s clearly been the right move.

    (more…)

  • Tuesday’s Election…

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A group of diverse people smiling and participating in a voting process, with one individual placing a ballot into a box against a sunset backdrop.

    And the discoveries that follow

    by Gordon C. Morse

    With state elections bearing down on them, Democratic Party leaders of the General Assembly brought everyone to Richmond last week, all in the cause of a constitutional amendment to allow, in mid-decade, a reconfiguration of Virginia’s congressional districts.

    Virginia Senate elections lie two years off, but Tuesday will reset the entire 100-member House, one way or another. Should the Democrats retain their majority in the House, Speaker Don Scott may become the first Speaker in a decade to succeed himself. That tells you something about present legislative stability in historically stable Virginia.

    So, was this work in Richmond last week the best use of everyone’s time?

    If you say no, you might conclude that the Democrats have collectively lost their minds.

    But is the answer no? If everything, everywhere, touching upon everyone, is polarized and all politics is now national politics, then perhaps the Democrats were doing precisely what they needed to do. They were reminding Virginia that they, as a party, oppose President Trump and whatever Trump represents.

    (more…)

  • Will October Surprises Affect Fall Elections?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A group of children dressed in Halloween costumes, including a vampire, a ghost, and a pumpkin, joyfully celebrating in a colorful autumn setting.
    October surprise. Image credit: Bing Image Creators

    by David J. Toscano

    October is a month for football games, falling leaves — and political surprises. In Virginia, surprises abound — and not just from the University of Virginia’s football team (now sporting an 8-1 record).

    First, there was the publication of damaging and inappropriate texts from Democrat Jay Jones in the Attorney General race. For most of the campaign, former Delegate Jones led incumbent Miyares, successfully tying him to the president who has fired Virginia federal employees and attacked the Affordable Care Act. Then came publication of the messages Jones sent several years ago to a Republican colleague sarcastically discussing the use of violence against political opponents — messages the GOP withheld until Democrats could not replace Jones on the fall ballot even if they wanted to.

    Jones repeatedly apologized and insists that he is better able to defend the state against Trump excesses while advancing Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s agenda. Republicans have pummeled Jones and demanded that Spanberger withdraw her endorsement. Spanberger countered by rightfully condemning the remarks and correctly explaining that the voters need to decide the race. Voters now must weigh Jones’s comments against the Miyares record.

    Miyares is not only an outspoken defender of Trump and the MAGA agenda but has not chosen to join other Attorneys General to oppose specific administration policies like cuts in federal employment, research grants, and Medicaid, even if they affect Virginians. He shows no indication that he will defend our universities against federal interference. In the end, elections are contests between two persons and who is most likely to defend the institutions and policies that we hold dear.

    What to watch on election day

    Jones’s fortunes are linked to Spanberger’s performance. If she wins by 9 points (Northam’s margin in 2017), her coattails will be long enough to bring him across the finish line. If the victory is closer to 5 points, a win will be more challenging.

    (more…)

  • Tomorrow’s Election and Immaturity on the Left

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Aurelius Grimm

    Image credit: Chat GPT

    The electoral stakes in Virginia this year are not existential in the sense of national survival. No one is claiming the Commonwealth is about to fall off the map. But the stakes are extraordinarily significant for one overriding reason: there is no moderating force left on the left.

    When Democrats held total power in Richmond from 2018 through 2021, they didn’t hesitate. They didn’t govern cautiously or temper their agenda to win broad support. They ran through everything they could, with no guardrails, no brakes, and no concern for the damage left behind.

    We saw it. They closed our schools. Governor Ralph Northam ordered churches shuttered while keeping the bars open. They tried to ban the most common sporting rifles in the United States. They opened the jail doors, and there are people dead today who would still be alive if not for the “early release” policies that Democrats rammed through.

    And rather than focus on lowering power bills or ensuring reliable electricity, Democrats made it clear their number one priority is “fighting climate change.” Never mind that Virginia’s contribution to global emissions is minuscule, completely swamped by Communist China. They were—and still are—willing to make life more expensive and energy less reliable for working families in service of an agenda that accomplishes nothing measurable.

    This is the core problem: there is no moderating voice left in their coalition. The activist base is in charge, and it will not leave people alone to live their own lives. (more…)

  • Dems Will Likely Raise Taxes If They Win Tomorrow

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A distressed businessman in a suit pumping air into an oversized balloon labeled 'TAXES', symbolizing the pressure of rising taxes.

    by Hans Bader

    Last May, Virginia’s Republican Governor, Glenn Youngkin, vetoed a bill to allow all counties to raise the sales tax by 1%. Virginia’s Democratic legislature tried to override his veto, but fell short of the two-thirds vote needed to do so, in a 25-to-15 vote in the state senate.

    Analysts said most local governments would have raised their sales tax had the bill become law. That’s because local sales taxes are paid partly by non-residents, giving municipalities an incentive to tax each other’s citizens by raising the sales tax. If a municipality raises its local sales tax, it keeps all of the revenue, but its residents don’t pay all of the cost — people from outside the municipality who can’t vote against the tax do.

    If the bill had become law, taxes would have risen further in Virginia, a state that already had higher-than-average tax rates, according to the Tax Foundation.

    Now, Democrats are favored to win the governor’s race in Virginia, although there is a very close race for state attorney general, and several state legislative races will be very close. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows the Democratic candidate for governor leading by a comfortable 9%, while Republican attorney general Jason Miyares is barely ahead of his Democratic challenger, leading Democrat Jay Jones by a razor-thin 1.6% margin. The Democrats’ lead in the governor’s race is fueled by the deep unpopularity in Virginia of Donald Trump.

    (more…)

  • Hidin’ Hashmi — Virginia’s Mamdani

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Joseph D. Elie

    A woman in a white blazer speaks passionately into a microphone at a political event.
    State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor Photo credit: AP

    As we approach the culmination of the 2025 election season this Tuesday, political prognosticators in Virginia perceive the races for governor and lieutenant governor to be tightening. Both contests are remarkable for the stark contrast of style and substance between the candidates, especially those vying to lead the state senate as lieutenant governor.

    John Reid has a broad background in business and politics while Ghazala Hashmi is a former academic elected to the state senate in 2019. Reid has been itinerant and tireless on the hustings, canvassing the entirety of the Commonwealth since relinquishing his popular talk radio show in January. Hashmi, reclusive in comparison to Reid, has perhaps been trying to find her muse while she dodges debates and holds press conferences by invitation only.

    Recently, the Islam-promoting political action committee Emgage Action and its website Defend & Advance proclaimed Zohran Mamdani, New York City mayoral front-runner, and Ghazala Hashmi to be their “Star Candidates.” The PAC, which mobilizes Muslims for “collective action,” has been linked to the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), which is considered by many to be associated with advocating for Islamic supremacy.

    Questions now naturally arise for these two Muslim candidates as they cultivate their disparate electorates. How similar are they on the issues? Does Hashmi think Mamdani’s views are shared by the majority of Virginians? Do Mamdani and Hashmi agree with Virginia attorney general candidate Jay Jones that “only when people feel pain personally do they then move on to policy?”

    (more…)

  • Look Who’s Endorsing Ghazala Hashmi

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Promotional graphic supporting Zohran Mamdan and Ghazala Hashmi as candidates, emphasizing their commitment to justice, human rights, and democracy.

    by David Greenberg

    The graphic above appears on the website of Defend & Advance, a national organization “advocating for Muslim voices.” States the website (my bold):

    Our Priorities:

    • To back incumbent allies who have walked shoulder-to-shoulder with us in this struggle.
    • To identify and support candidates in key competitive seats who share our vision for human rights and justice – those who have not just spoken out, but have acted on behalf of those who have been marginalized and oppressed.

    We have long fought for compassionate advocates for Muslims to be heard in mainstream discourse, and the time has come for us to protect and support these voices more than ever.

    Question: What is lieutenant governor-candidate Ghazala Hashmi’s “vision for human rights and justice”? Does she believe that Muslims have been “marginalized and oppressed” in Virginia?

    Question: To what extent does “star-candidate” Hashmi share the critique of New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist, of capitalism, American society and the Israel-Palestine conflict?

    No one knows because she has steadfastly refused to debate her opponent John Reid.

    David Greenberg lives in the Richmond area.

  • Redistricting: Risky for Spanberger but Win-Win for Scott

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    By Paul Goldman

    We finally smoked out the truth about redistricting. As I have written, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, the presumptive Governor-elect, could win or lose depending upon how the politics play out. But House Speaker Don Scott wins no matter what. I didn’t think he had the cajones to do it. My bad. Not going to make that mistake again.

    Scott’s plan would scrap Virginia’s nonpartisan redistricting process and, contingent upon Republican redistricting initiatives in other states, replace it with gerrymandered congressional districts. Spanberger has pretended not to be part of Scott’s plan. But it requires her to sign a bill allowing for a redistricting referendum — risking her reputation and the success of her four-year term in the process.

    Two successive legislatures must adopt a resolution to put before the voters. Time is tight — the 2026 elections are just one year away — and extraordinary political measures will be called for. To reverse the electorate’s vote in 2020 to create a nonpartisan process, Spanberger (assuming she gets elected) will have to go full-bore super-partisan.

    (more…)

  • Jeanine’s Memes

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A man in a blue shirt stands next to a flip chart, presenting two statements about government shutdown and dependency on tax dollars.

    View more memes at The Bull Elephant

  • Under Youngkin, Virginia Cut Permitting Times, Attracted $125 Billion in Investment

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A futuristic robot wielding a sword is cutting through red ribbons, symbolizing the removal of bureaucratic barriers or regulations.

    by Hans Bader

    “Under Governor Glenn Youngkin, Virginia created a new permitting dashboard, and cut permit processing times by 72%. The state’s attracted $125 billion in capital investment since 2022. Conservative abundance at work,” notes Russ Greene of Stand Together.

    The National Review adds that under Youngkin, Virginia “occupational license approval times declined from 33 days to 5 days. Stormwater permitting reforms saved $124 million.” And “Department of Environmental Quality permit processing times declined by 70%.”

    When people don’t have an occupational license due to bureaucratic delays, they can’t work or support their families. Their lack of employment reduces the income tax revenue that pays for schools, roads, and law enforcement. So speeding up licensing and permitting, as Youngkin has done, is very important.

    Governor Youngkin’s regulatory reforms have saved Virginians $1.2 billion per year, and cut the cost of building a home by $24,000 on average, by eliminating obsolete regulations not required by Virginia law.

    “Since 2022, Virginia has reduced the number of requirements in its regulatory code by 26.8 percent, exceeding Youngkin’s goal of 25 percent. He says his administration is on pace to reach a 33 percent reduction by the end of his term early next year. The reduction in regulatory word count is even greater: 11.5 million words were struck, nearly half of the total found in state guidance documents,” the National Review says.

    (more…)

  • Spanberger is the Antithesis of Standing with Women

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A close-up of a fountain pen poised over handwritten notes on aged paper.

    by Ashley Varner-Thielan

    As a Virginia woman, I am no stranger to the continued struggle over protecting women’s spaces and girls’ sports. We have fought tirelessly for the idea that privacy, fairness, and safety matter, and that acknowledging biological reality is not intolerance, but common sense.

    For decades, Democrats have claimed to be champions for women. But where are those so-called champions when women are the ones being harmed? In Congress, Abigail Spanberger has had every chance to stand for women, defend equality, and protect the spaces that belong to us. Instead, she has doubled down on supporting policies that have eroded women’s privacy and dignity by letting men into women’s spaces. 

    (more…)

  • Bacon Meme of the Week

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Text graphic humorously stating 'Daylight Savings just means the bacon comes an hour earlier,' with an image of a strip of bacon.

  • Outfoxed

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    The GOP had an opportunity to force Abigail Spanberger into a no-win position on redistricting. They blew it.

    by Paul Goldman

    General Assembly Democrats hope to speed a measure through the legislature that would allow voters to approve a constitutional amendment providing for redistricting in time for the 2026 congressional election. Democratic nominee for Governor Abigail Spanberger has said she does not oppose those efforts. However, with the campaign still underway, she says, “I will let the General Assembly take this step, and then we’ll talk calendar issues later.”

    Two successive legislatures must adopt a resolution to put before the voters. Time is tight — the 2026 elections are just one year away — and extraordinary measures are called for. If Dems have any chance to make redistricting a reality, Spanberger will have to get actively involved, assuming she gets elected.

    Here is the key provision in the VA Constitution: 

    (more…)

  • Virginia’s Dreadful Nursing Homes – Part Four – Recommendations For 2026 Legislation

    Posted on

    by

    sherlockj

    Virginia’s Dreadful Nursing Homes – Part Four – Recommendations For 2026 Legislation

    by James C. Sherlock

    This series is being constructed specifically to support legislation in the 2026 General Assembly. To reiterate the legislative recommendations from Part 3:

    Recommended legislation

    Consumer protection. Right now, citizens in Virginia Beach and in other communities have no defense against poor and badly staffed nursing homes that charge too much. The good ones simply do not have nearly enough beds to support demand.

    Hospitals and insurance care managers can helpfully provide more information to patients about to transfer or to their caregivers. That should include useful information on local nursing homes, such as:

    • the latest inspection ratings and staffing ratings,
    • average nursing CMI as a proxy for cost,
    • number of beds, and
    • average occupancy.

    That does not happen broadly in Virginia. 

    Those service providers can be required by law to provide to patients facing a nursing home stay a written handout including:

    • specified CMS data tailored to hospital service areas, and
    • a written explanation of the meanings of the information.

    The law would not challenge those required to take the actions because the data do not change very often. It would provide a very necessary service to citizens.

    (more…)

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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