by Paul Goldman

As a general rule, a big underdog like the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee would gain a few points as the campaigned closed. But the polls are indicating a move towards the Democrats. If true, this could be enough to lift the struggling Democratic LG and AG nominees to victory. 

Historical statistical analysis says there should be a Democratic sweep if Spanberger wins by more than nine points. Based on the 2017 statewide contest held in the shadow of a Trump presidency, a 10-point or more win would seem expected. In this regard, the mediocre approval ratings given GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin also has contributed to the Spanberger margin. The Youngkin aides promoting him as presidential timber must’ve grown up on Easter Island, where all the forest is long gone. The so-called “Youngkin Brand“ hardly seems useful in 2028 if it gets wiped out in his home state. Thus, his relatively lack of engagement seemed odd. 

The best Democratic gubernatorial candidate performance in the modern era occurred in 1985. Democrat Jerry Baliles won by slightly more than 10%. As I said months ago, the historical statistics indicated Spanberger should break Jerry’s record. At the time the polls were suggesting the gubernatorial race would be close. This never made historical statistical sense.

In terms of the political chessboard, one has to say Spanberger’s team ran an exceptionally disciplined race. I have criticized them for leaving her running mates twisting in the wind, at least by campaign standards when I used to run campaigns. In my book, it was unnecessary in relation to her winning big. But that being said, she had the right to do it and for her it’s clearly been the right move.

Unlike when Wilder made his history, there have been numerous female governors across America. Thus, the history she will be making won’t resonate around the country as Wilder’s did. But here in the Commonwealth, it is going to be a much-welcomed achievement and will give her an incredible momentum going into the inauguration in January.

At the same time, the shadow of the most unusual constitutional amendment election in state history will loom over her first hundred days. 

No one, of course, can know for certain what the state of the political climate will be when she officially takes office. Seventy-five days in the Trump error has been and will always be a wild ride, better than any rodeo. There is also no telling what the Supreme Court might do if finally required to rule on any super partisan redistricting here in Virginia. 

Logic suggests the furor over midterm redistricting will be greater than it is now. Which is unfortunate for her, the same way Wilder inheriting an unexpected 10% budget gap impinged on his historic first months.

Spanberger earned the right to come into office and set the chessboard the way she wanted it set up. But the gods of politics don’t much care what we mortals might want.

There is a sizable chance she will be sucked into a partisan political fight running directly counter to the image she has tried to create over a seemingly endless gubernatorial tutorial campaign. As Ralph Waldo Emerson observed, events are in the saddle, and they ride mankind. 

Having been involved in several gubernatorial transitions, I think the Spanberger team needs to move quickly and boldly. The most important power of a governor or governor-elect is their platform to dictate the narrative of their times. The looming shadow of super partisan redistricting, put to an early vote during her administration, therefore threatens her ability to define that narrative. 

I would urge her, therefore, seeing the twister and its dark cloud coming toward you, to be far more active in defining her vision than is normally considered the smart play during the transition period. But, of course, that’s one man’s opinion. 

In summary then, a failure of the Democratic ticket to sweep to victory would defy the election statistics since the creation of the modern two-party system here in the Commonwealth. The last four statewide elections led to four sweeps, two for the Democrats and two for the Republicans.

By every historic measure, this should’ve been an easy fifth sweep in a row. The number of ticket splitting-voters has been declining overtime. At the same time, the number of voters identifying themselves as independents has mushroomed in the last two years. By definition, independent voters should be more willing to split their ticket. 

I got married in the Governor’s Mansion. I’m sure Spanberger will be comfortable there. Virginia is the only reliable Southern state for Democrats on the national level. That guarantees her a quotable voice in 2026 and 2028. 

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party, a former candidate for mayor of the City of Richmond, and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”