By Paul Goldman

We finally smoked out the truth about redistricting. As I have written, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, the presumptive Governor-elect, could win or lose depending upon how the politics play out. But House Speaker Don Scott wins no matter what. I didn’t think he had the cajones to do it. My bad. Not going to make that mistake again.

Scott’s plan would scrap Virginia’s nonpartisan redistricting process and, contingent upon Republican redistricting initiatives in other states, replace it with gerrymandered congressional districts. Spanberger has pretended not to be part of Scott’s plan. But it requires her to sign a bill allowing for a redistricting referendum — risking her reputation and the success of her four-year term in the process.

Two successive legislatures must adopt a resolution to put before the voters. Time is tight — the 2026 elections are just one year away — and extraordinary political measures will be called for. To reverse the electorate’s vote in 2020 to create a nonpartisan process, Spanberger (assuming she gets elected) will have to go full-bore super-partisan.

Here is the key provision in the Virginia Constitution now that forced The Don to come clean: 

“Article IV. Legislature
Section 13: Effective Date of Laws

All laws enacted at a regular session, including laws which are enacted by reason of actions taken during the reconvened session following a regular session, but excluding a general appropriation law, shall take effect on the first day of July following the adjournment of the session of the General Assembly at which it has been enacted.

The 2026 General Assembly will enact what is called a caboose bill. For purposes of this article, call it a mini-appropriations bill.

However, Article IV, Section 13 clearly was not intended to allow a general appropriation to be a disguised election bill. Read the following:

Article IV. Legislature
“Section 12. Form of laws

“No law shall embrace more than one object, which shall be expressed in its title. Nor shall any law be revived or amended with reference to its title, but the act revived or the section amended shall be reenacted and published.” 

Setting a special date would require budgetary implications around the state. In my view, it fits under the one title rule in Article IV, Section 12. Clever for sure.

So, we now know the procedural chess moves at the 2026 General Assembly. Adding amendments to the Constitution of Virginia are covered by Article 12

“Article XII. Future Changes
Section 1. Amendments

If at such regular session or any subsequent special session of that General Assembly the proposed amendment or amendments shall be agreed to by a majority of all the members elected to each house, then it shall be the duty of the General Assembly to submit such proposed amendment or amendments to the voters qualified to vote in elections by the people, in such manner as it shall prescribe and not sooner than ninety days after final passage by the General Assembly. If a majority of those voting vote in favor of any amendment, it shall become part of the Constitution on the date prescribed by the General Assembly in submitting the amendment to the voters.

First, the Democrats, upon the convening of the 2026 General Assembly, will move ASAP to pass their constitutional amendment for the required second time. This will then kick-in Article 12, Section 1. They will then pass quickly a general appropriation bill, including the earliest Tuesday date for the constitutional referendum along with the extra funds needed to implement this election across the state. I seriously doubt they’ll choose something other than a Tuesday. 

Then amid ongoing weeks of GOP public clamor saying candidate Spanberger lied to the public, that’s she’s not the independent-minded person she claimed to be but just a Democratic hack, Gov. Spanberger will fast sign the mini general-appropriation bill. The GOP will file a legal challenge. But lose. 

At which point the April election date. Rookie Governor Spanberger cannot afford to lose this election. She will have already risked if not sacrificed her reputation as an independent thinking Democrat.

If she wins, she’ll be fine, although never again seen as independent. But if she loses, she will have not only lost her independent image but be seen by Democrats across the country as unable to deliver a majority in a state carried by Obama, Clinton, Biden and Harris. 

Speaker Scott will be a hero to state and national Democrats either way. 

Moreover, Spanberger has this to ponder: All things considered, odds are the United States Supreme Court will reject the use of these new congressional districts until 2028 even if they’re found constitutional. 

On a risk v. reward ratio, the new Governor will be making a low percentage play she can’t afford to lose. 

Gutsy for sure. But let’s be honest: Blaming Trump for wrecking the federal constitution, then using Trump’s action as the excuse to do something the Virginia constitution never intended, is playing with fire. 

It’s what they call in game theory “the burn the boats” option. Trump is trying to get us to look the other way while he sets fire to our democracy. But isn’t it highly risky when states across the country to set fire to their own constitution?

I know firefighters set backfires to stop the main fire. But sometimes this strategy backfires. The two fires merge into an even bigger one.

The great irony is that even a Democratic House of Representatives taking office in 2027 isn’t gonna be able to stop Trump. Yes, they will investigate and demand Trump’s people show up or her face jail for contempt. Except the DOJ isn’t gonna prosecute anybody. The same for the local U.S. attorney. But even if they did, Trump would just pardon them anyway. Then hold a giant celebration in the new Trump White House ballroom with them as honored guests.

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party, a former candidate for mayor of the City of Richmond, and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”