Bacon's Rebellion

  • Dissecting the Blue Wave: Turnout

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A playful donkey jumping in the foreground with a smiling expression, while an elephant rests in the background.
    Dem voters energized, GOP voters lethargic. Image credit: Grok

    by James A. Bacon

    Gov. Glenn Youngkin yesterday blamed Tuesday’s shellacking of the Republican Party in Virginia on the government shutdown. “I firmly believe that the government shutdown was a very, very big challenge as we ran into this election,” he told reporters. “We have 330,000 government workers here that weren’t getting paid. That is a real challenge heading into an election.” 

    Youngkin’s proposition is a not-implausible hypothesis of what happened Tuesday. But does it hold water?

    Government workers were never Trump fans to begin with. They have always been true blue. Did the DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) layoffs and then the government shutdown change a lot of minds? Perhaps a few. But I suspect other factors were at play.

    According to Virginia Public Access Project data, the big change between 2021, in which Republicans swept the statewide offices, and 2025 was a decline in voter turnout among predominantly red localities — not a surge in turnout in government worker-heavy blue districts.

    A scatter plot showing voter turnout percentages for 2021 and projections for 2025, with data points in red and blue, and a shaded area representing higher turnout.
    Source: Virginia Public Access Project. Click here to view the interactive graphic that identifies each dot by locality.

    Turnout in Democratic-leaning localities trended more or less the same as four years ago. By contrast, enthusiasm in red localities was down across the board — in literally every locality. Whatever was ailing Republicans Tuesday was statewide in nature. It’s hard to imagine that the loss of 300,000 federal jobs in Virginia weighed heavily on the minds of Republican-leaning voters in, say Patrick County in Southside Virginia (turnout down 8%) or Giles County in western Virginia (also down 8%).

    (more…)

  • Dissecting the Blue Wave: Fundraising

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A donkey and an elephant standing next to large piles of cash.
    Image credit: Grok

    by James A. Bacon

    Democrats swept the statewide races and flipped 13 House of Delegates seats Tuesday — a watershed in Virginia politics. Any analysis of the Blue Wave must take into account the vast discrepancy in fundraising prowess of Democrats over Republicans, not just in the statewide races but in the House races as well.

    Between statewide and House races combined, Democrat candidates reported $149.6 million in contributions as of October 23. Republicans raised $85.9 million.

    The relationship between money raised and electoral success is a complicated one. Spending more money on a campaign does not guarantee a win: Attorney General Jason Miyares outspent the scandal-ridden Jay Jones but lost to him anyway. But all other things being equal, more money is better than less money. It helps build a better campaign organization and buys more cable TV and social media advertising.

    Abigail Spanberger’s money advantage in the gubernatorial race and Ghazala Hashmi’s money dominance in the contest for lieutenant general have been widely reported.

    Table displaying campaign spending and vote totals for various candidates in Virginia elections, including contributions for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
    Donations reported as of October 23. Source: Virginia Public Access Project

    According to VPAP data, Democrats’ fundraising advantage was just as lopsided in the House of Delegates races.

    (more…)

  • It Was Singular

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Not plural

    Cartoon depiction of a man with blonde hair wearing a suit and a crown, sitting on a round object against a blue sky with clouds.

    by Gordon C. Morse

    Jay Jones prevailed. Manic text messages and a lead foot notwithstanding, Jones will be the next Virginia attorney general — and, you know, that’s democracy. Abigail Spanberger is now the Governor-elect. Virginia Sen. Ghazala Hashmi will be lieutenant governor. They racked up big margins, and it was impressive.

    The results in the House of Delegates — the dramatic growth of the Democratic caucus — was a tad beyond impressive.

    Jones had been the source of worry, of course, though you could feel the winds shifting about after revelations of his colorful texting. Dancing phone fingers, even in the service of the scatological, don’t trump the need to trump Trump.

    Election night was destined to be about Trump, and it was Trump. You can do a half dozen “factors” or “13 reasons” or “21 takes.” But it was still one big, inescapable thing in the form of Donald Trump and all the many matters that have animated the president since retaking the White House.

    Gov. Youngkin said it wasn’t Trump. Blame the federal government shutdown, Youngkin said. Ha. I like Youngkin; he’s been great on economic development. But it was Trump.

    (more…)

  • The Blue Tsunami

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Kerry Dougherty

    A blue and white sign indicating a tsunami evacuation route with a wave graphic and an arrow pointing left.

    There’s no denying that Virginia was swamped Tuesday night by a blue wave. Make that a blue tsunami.

    The Democrats not only swept the top three statewide offices, but they flipped 13 seats in the House of Delegates. Every corner of the commonwealth was at least tinged blue.

    Looking for a sliver of sunshine, Republicans? The Liberty University precinct reportedly voted 95.11% Republican.

    That’s all I have for you.

    The only folks who had a worse night than Winsome Earle-Sears were the pollsters. As usual, they got it wrong.

    As I pointed out last week, Virginia is a tough place to poll. While pollsters consistently had Abigail Spanberger leading in the governor’s race, few – if any – predicted a 15 point landslide. (Ralph Northam won by less than 10 in 2017.) No pollster that I encountered forecast a 10.5 point rout by Ghazala Hashmi for lieutenant governor. And until the final few days almost all polls showed the Attorney General race within the margin of error. Jones won by 6.5 points.

    So what did we learn from Tuesday’s election results?

    Well, we learned a lot about Virginia Democrat voters. Some of it is troubling.

    We learned that wanting to kill your political opponents, piss on their graves and merrily muse about the deaths of their “little fascist” children is not a deal breaker for Democrats when selecting a top law enforcement officer. Neither is likely lying to a court about the community service a candidate did to avoid jail. Continue reading.

  • Virginia’s Dreadful Nursing Homes – Part Five – Chain Corporate Structures and the Undoing of the Regulatory Structure

    Posted on

    by

    sherlockj

    Virginia’s Dreadful Nursing Homes – Part Five – Chain Corporate Structures and the Undoing of the Regulatory Structure

    by James C. Sherlock

    Today, we will examine a big factor in why nursing home regulation fails. It is doomed in part by the organizational structures of chains that mask a deadly lack of corporate ethics. Government regulators not only do not stop it, but are currently helpless to do so for the simplest of reasons. They know nothing about those structures and the internal fees and rents that drain funds from the operating companies and from patient care.

    The problem starts with a federal law.

    The HUD/FHA Section 232 program is an FHA loan product that provides mortgage insurance for residential care facilities. It is a 66-year-old carve-out for the nursing home industry in the National Housing Act.  Section 232 offers FHA guarantees for non-recourse, below-market fixed-rate, long-term loans at up to 80% loan-to-appraised-value ratios. Lender’s fees are generally 3.5%. The cost for new construction can include land purchase.

    The loans may be used to finance the purchase, refinance, new construction, or substantial rehabilitation of a project. A combination of these uses is acceptable – e.g. refinance of a nursing home coupled with new construction of an assisted living facility.

    Every nursing home that is purchased or renovated using a loan backed by a Section 232 guarantee has its own operating company and realty company that serves as the landlord for the operating company. That is a 232 program requirement designed to protect the real estate collateral of the loan from failure of the operating company. The loans are made to the realty company.

    Operating and realty companies are separate LLCs, but the members of each are usually the same people, at least initially.

    That is where many chains get creative, both to protect the assets even further and to generate internal fees with enterprise structures borrowed from the real estate industry.

    (more…)

  • Virginia Is a Deep Blue State Now. What’s Next?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A map of Virginia showing various regions in shades of red and blue, indicating different data points or demographic information, with surrounding states and notable cities labeled.
    VoteHub shows where Virginia voters backed Spanberger and where they supported Earle-Sears. Source: Newsweek. Posted at the request of Carol Bova.

    Democrats swept the statewide races and massacred Republicans in the House of Delegates. (The new House will be 64 Democrats and 36 Republicans.) Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, can do anything she wants. How will she govern? She campaigned as a moderate, but how will she respond to the demands of Virginia’s ascendant left wing?

    Readers, hold forth in the comments.

  • A Blue Tsunami

    Posted on

    by

    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    by Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Image credit: Times of India

    Yep, the polls were wrong. Democrats won much bigger than any predictions.

    Not only did Spanberger win by over 14 points, Hashmi won by almost 10, and Jones, despite his texting scandal, had a comfortable margin of six points.

    In the biggest surprise, Democrats flipped 13 House seats. Even Don Scott, Speaker of the House, did not expect this; he had predicted they would pick up four seats. When Bobby Orrock, who has represented Caroline County for almost as long as anyone familiar with the General Assembly can remember, is beaten by a Democrat by a healthy margin, you know that something major is going on.

    There are a lot of Bacon Rebellion commenters in great despair this morning.

  • Vote!

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A group of people protesting in the street, holding signs that read 'VOTE', 'NO JUSTICE NO PEACE', and 'RESIST NO PEACE'. One woman in the foreground is passionately expressing herself while others appear engaged in the demonstration.
    Image credit: Grok

    Save Virginia from left-wing radicals.

    by Kerry Dougherty

    Well, whaddya know, it’s Tuesday, November 4th. Election Day.

    No matter how busy you are, no matter what’s going on, don’t sit this one out.

    VOTE.

    Especially if you love Virginia and don’t want our commonwealth to turn into an East-coast version of tax-mad, crime-ridden, gender and pronoun-obsessed California.

    Remember how good it felt the day after the 2021 election, when Glenn Youngkin beat Terry McAuliffe and you knew that it was Independence Day in Virginia? 

    VOTE.

    Remember how you woke up the morning after that historic election and knew the vaccine mandates that cost state workers their jobs were a thing of the past? You knew that statewide mask mandates were not coming back. You knew that parents were going to be heard at their kids’ schools and school officials would no longer be allowed to hide a child’s gender confusion from their parents. You knew that schools would focus on excellence instead of kowtowing to teachers’ unions. You knew that the parole board would not be turning murderers loose.

    I could go on, but if you were in Virginia in November 2021, you remember the overweening tyranny of the Northam administration and his Democrat monopoly on the state house and how good it felt to shake it all off.

    VOTE.

    If all goes well – and if the polls are wrong – we’ll feel that sense of relief again tomorrow. Youngkin’s common-sense policies will continue with Winsome Earle-Sears.

    She’ll be able to pump the brakes and veto the sick agenda the Democrats have in store for the commonwealth. Continue reading.

  • Voting in Ignorance

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Voters go to the polls today without seeing the candidates debate critical issues ranging from redistricting to the energy crisis.

    A concerned voter stands in front of a ballot box, looking puzzled, with a thought bubble featuring a question mark, symbolizing confusion during the voting process.
    Image credit: Bing Image Creator

    by Derrick Max

    With election day now upon us, Virginia voters were short-changed this election cycle while Democracy is literally being threatened! 

    Virginians were limited to one, short, poorly controlled debate for Governor, one equally short, but slightly more substantive debate for Attorney General, and zero debates for Lt. Governor – unless, of course, you count the surreal spectacle of Republican nominee John Reid debating an AI version of Democrat Ghazala Hashmi after she refused over ten invitations to appear on stage with him.

    Worse yet, Virginia’s extended, 45-day early voting rules robbed a half million voters of having even these two debates inform their vote as both were held well after early voting had already begun and votes were already cast.  

    Compounding the impact of this debate failure, is that the Democrats, just one week before the election, and after the two inadequate debates were over, called back their members to vote on an amendment to the state constitution to literally overthrow the will of Virginians who voted in 2020 in favor of a bipartisan commission to draw congressional maps. Democrats voted to ignore voters and return the Commonwealth’s redistricting process to the hands of a partisan map drawing cabal.

    Such a monumental decision should have been a central topic of debate for candidates of all three of the Commonwealth’s statewide offices. More importantly, voters should have had more time to hear from their State Delegates on this issue as they will have the most say over the future of this troubling amendment.

    (more…)

  • Ignore the Polls. Vote

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Kerry Dougherty

    These are scary times in Virginia. If you believe the political polls – and there’s no reason you should, they’ve been wildly wrong for years in the Old Dominion – we may be about to fork over all of state government to radical leftists.

    It’s almost as if voters have forgotten what happened a short five years ago when Democrat Ralph Northam shut down schools for more than a year, locked us out of our churches and synagogues and forced even five-year- olds to walk around in filthy, useless face diapers.

    God help us all if there’s another public emergency during a Spanberger governorship.

    But even without a pandemic a Governor Spanberger would be dangerous. For a start she wants to dismantle Virginia’s Right-To-Work laws, so if you’ve dreamed of being forced to join a union, this is definitely your girl. Continue reading.

  • Will Spanberger Sweep in the Democratic Ticket?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    An illustrated image of a woman in a business suit holding a broom outside a large building with columns, smiling confidently.
    Image credit: Grok

    by Paul Goldman

    As a general rule, a big underdog like the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee would gain a few points as the campaigned closed. But the polls are indicating a move towards the Democrats. If true, this could be enough to lift the struggling Democratic LG and AG nominees to victory. 

    Historical statistical analysis says there should be a Democratic sweep if Spanberger wins by more than nine points. Based on the 2017 statewide contest held in the shadow of a Trump presidency, a 10-point or more win would seem expected. In this regard, the mediocre approval ratings given GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin also has contributed to the Spanberger margin. The Youngkin aides promoting him as presidential timber must’ve grown up on Easter Island, where all the forest is long gone. The so-called “Youngkin Brand“ hardly seems useful in 2028 if it gets wiped out in his home state. Thus, his relatively lack of engagement seemed odd. 

    The best Democratic gubernatorial candidate performance in the modern era occurred in 1985. Democrat Jerry Baliles won by slightly more than 10%. As I said months ago, the historical statistics indicated Spanberger should break Jerry’s record. At the time the polls were suggesting the gubernatorial race would be close. This never made historical statistical sense.

    In terms of the political chessboard, one has to say Spanberger’s team ran an exceptionally disciplined race. I have criticized them for leaving her running mates twisting in the wind, at least by campaign standards when I used to run campaigns. In my book, it was unnecessary in relation to her winning big. But that being said, she had the right to do it and for her it’s clearly been the right move.

    (more…)

  • Tuesday’s Election…

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A group of diverse people smiling and participating in a voting process, with one individual placing a ballot into a box against a sunset backdrop.

    And the discoveries that follow

    by Gordon C. Morse

    With state elections bearing down on them, Democratic Party leaders of the General Assembly brought everyone to Richmond last week, all in the cause of a constitutional amendment to allow, in mid-decade, a reconfiguration of Virginia’s congressional districts.

    Virginia Senate elections lie two years off, but Tuesday will reset the entire 100-member House, one way or another. Should the Democrats retain their majority in the House, Speaker Don Scott may become the first Speaker in a decade to succeed himself. That tells you something about present legislative stability in historically stable Virginia.

    So, was this work in Richmond last week the best use of everyone’s time?

    If you say no, you might conclude that the Democrats have collectively lost their minds.

    But is the answer no? If everything, everywhere, touching upon everyone, is polarized and all politics is now national politics, then perhaps the Democrats were doing precisely what they needed to do. They were reminding Virginia that they, as a party, oppose President Trump and whatever Trump represents.

    (more…)

  • Will October Surprises Affect Fall Elections?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A group of children dressed in Halloween costumes, including a vampire, a ghost, and a pumpkin, joyfully celebrating in a colorful autumn setting.
    October surprise. Image credit: Bing Image Creators

    by David J. Toscano

    October is a month for football games, falling leaves — and political surprises. In Virginia, surprises abound — and not just from the University of Virginia’s football team (now sporting an 8-1 record).

    First, there was the publication of damaging and inappropriate texts from Democrat Jay Jones in the Attorney General race. For most of the campaign, former Delegate Jones led incumbent Miyares, successfully tying him to the president who has fired Virginia federal employees and attacked the Affordable Care Act. Then came publication of the messages Jones sent several years ago to a Republican colleague sarcastically discussing the use of violence against political opponents — messages the GOP withheld until Democrats could not replace Jones on the fall ballot even if they wanted to.

    Jones repeatedly apologized and insists that he is better able to defend the state against Trump excesses while advancing Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s agenda. Republicans have pummeled Jones and demanded that Spanberger withdraw her endorsement. Spanberger countered by rightfully condemning the remarks and correctly explaining that the voters need to decide the race. Voters now must weigh Jones’s comments against the Miyares record.

    Miyares is not only an outspoken defender of Trump and the MAGA agenda but has not chosen to join other Attorneys General to oppose specific administration policies like cuts in federal employment, research grants, and Medicaid, even if they affect Virginians. He shows no indication that he will defend our universities against federal interference. In the end, elections are contests between two persons and who is most likely to defend the institutions and policies that we hold dear.

    What to watch on election day

    Jones’s fortunes are linked to Spanberger’s performance. If she wins by 9 points (Northam’s margin in 2017), her coattails will be long enough to bring him across the finish line. If the victory is closer to 5 points, a win will be more challenging.

    (more…)

  • Tomorrow’s Election and Immaturity on the Left

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Aurelius Grimm

    Image credit: Chat GPT

    The electoral stakes in Virginia this year are not existential in the sense of national survival. No one is claiming the Commonwealth is about to fall off the map. But the stakes are extraordinarily significant for one overriding reason: there is no moderating force left on the left.

    When Democrats held total power in Richmond from 2018 through 2021, they didn’t hesitate. They didn’t govern cautiously or temper their agenda to win broad support. They ran through everything they could, with no guardrails, no brakes, and no concern for the damage left behind.

    We saw it. They closed our schools. Governor Ralph Northam ordered churches shuttered while keeping the bars open. They tried to ban the most common sporting rifles in the United States. They opened the jail doors, and there are people dead today who would still be alive if not for the “early release” policies that Democrats rammed through.

    And rather than focus on lowering power bills or ensuring reliable electricity, Democrats made it clear their number one priority is “fighting climate change.” Never mind that Virginia’s contribution to global emissions is minuscule, completely swamped by Communist China. They were—and still are—willing to make life more expensive and energy less reliable for working families in service of an agenda that accomplishes nothing measurable.

    This is the core problem: there is no moderating voice left in their coalition. The activist base is in charge, and it will not leave people alone to live their own lives. (more…)

  • Dems Will Likely Raise Taxes If They Win Tomorrow

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A distressed businessman in a suit pumping air into an oversized balloon labeled 'TAXES', symbolizing the pressure of rising taxes.

    by Hans Bader

    Last May, Virginia’s Republican Governor, Glenn Youngkin, vetoed a bill to allow all counties to raise the sales tax by 1%. Virginia’s Democratic legislature tried to override his veto, but fell short of the two-thirds vote needed to do so, in a 25-to-15 vote in the state senate.

    Analysts said most local governments would have raised their sales tax had the bill become law. That’s because local sales taxes are paid partly by non-residents, giving municipalities an incentive to tax each other’s citizens by raising the sales tax. If a municipality raises its local sales tax, it keeps all of the revenue, but its residents don’t pay all of the cost — people from outside the municipality who can’t vote against the tax do.

    If the bill had become law, taxes would have risen further in Virginia, a state that already had higher-than-average tax rates, according to the Tax Foundation.

    Now, Democrats are favored to win the governor’s race in Virginia, although there is a very close race for state attorney general, and several state legislative races will be very close. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows the Democratic candidate for governor leading by a comfortable 9%, while Republican attorney general Jason Miyares is barely ahead of his Democratic challenger, leading Democrat Jay Jones by a razor-thin 1.6% margin. The Democrats’ lead in the governor’s race is fueled by the deep unpopularity in Virginia of Donald Trump.

    (more…)

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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