Bacon's Rebellion

  • Will Virginia Become a One-Party State?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Image credit: Grok

    by Paul Goldman

    Virginia GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin is vowing to finish “strong.” With all due respect, it might have been better if he had started “strong.” His party just suffered its worse defeat in Virginia’s two-party era. If that’s finishing strong, I’d like to know what he thinks finishing weak looks like. 

    Fact: No Republican connected to Trump’s MAGA has ever or will ever be elected Governor of Virginia. Or U.S. Senator. I wrote months ago on these pages — in my column saying John Reid won the short straw not primary gold — that the historical numbers pointed to Spanberger likely breaking the all-time percentage record for any Dem gubernatorial in the two-party era. I also thought a ticket sweep seemed likely based on my analysis of historical voting statistics. 

    Next prediction: Will the Virginia Democratic Party try to wipe out the Virginia Republican Party if the super partisan redistricting amendment is approved by the voters this spring? My answer: 100% for sure. The path to such destruction is foreseeable. 

    (more…)

  • Trump Lost the Virginia Elections for Republicans

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Hans Bader

    The GOP was crushed in the recent Virginia elections because Donald Trump is terribly unpopular in Virginia. Before Trump was president, the GOP easily controlled the Virginia state legislature, and held 66 of the 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. After Tuesday’s election, it will hold only 34 seats in the House and control neither house of the state legislature.

    Former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney pointed this out:

    A tweet by Levar Stoney discussing the impact of Donald Trump on the Republican Party's performance in Virginia elections, listing election results from 2017 to 2025.

    Trump fans claimed the GOP lost Tuesday’s election because Virginia is a staunchly Democratic state. But it has long been a purple state where Republicans used to control the legislature handily, because suburban voters leaned Republican. Now, the suburbanites in Virginia heavily lean Democratic, and every single legislator representing northern Virginia is a Democrat.

    Virginia isn’t a deep blue state by nature. It is only Trump who makes it so.

    (more…)

  • Almost as Good as It Gets

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Democrats run the table — and then some

    by David J. Toscano

    A campaign bus engulfed in flames on the side of the road, with a visible image of a candidate on its side.

    In the classic film, Network, Howard Beale delivered one of the most remembered lines in movie history: “I’m mad as hell, and I am not going to take it anymore”. Many voters, from Virginia to California and Maine to Georgia, seemed to feel that way. Frustrated by chaos, corruption, and exhaustion, they turned out in record numbers to deliver sweeping victories for Democrats, winning most every significant contest on the ballot.

    Virginia, Virginia, Virginia, Virginia

    Virginia has again shown itself as a bellwether of change. Abigail Spanberger won by the largest margin since Bob McDonnell’s 2009 victory, as Democrats swept all statewide races in an election with turnout higher than four years ago — a clear sign of Democratic energy.

    Less noticed but equally consequential were Democrats’ massive gains in the House of Delegates, where they flipped 13 seats and will hold a 64–36 margin come January. Speaker of House Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, arguably now the most powerful man in the state and the primary architect of the romp, exclaimed that this “is what a mandate looks like,” while cautioning that “the word of the day is restraint. We can’t overreach.”

    Republicans, meanwhile, imploded. Neither Trump nor mainstream conservatives ever embraced Winsome-Sears, whose campaign was derided by a Trump ally as a “dumpster fire” — a label made literal when her campaign bus caught fire on the roadside. Late GOP money shifted to Jason Miyares, but even that could not save him. Trump supporters unloaded after her loss. Chris LaCivita, longtime Virginia GOP strategist and Trump’s 2024 campaign manager, wrote: “A Bad candidate and Bad campaign have consequences — the Virginia Governor’s race is example number 1.”

    (more…)

  • Enhanced Trifecta Gives Democrats Full Control of Energy Laws

    Posted on

    by

    Steve Haner

    By Steve Haner,

    The return of the political trifecta Democrats enjoyed during the 2020 and 2021 General Assembly sessions – now bolstered with a 64-36 majority in the House of Delegates – leaves the question of how to deal with Virginia’s energy issues entirely in their hands.  

    Only if the Democrats suffer a significant division within their own ranks will the Republican legislators cast votes in committee or on the chamber floor that decide any issue. And with 64 votes in the House (meaning Democrats will also have at least two-thirds of committee seats), it would have to be a deep Democratic split for Republicans to matter.  

    Most of the new Democratic members including those who ousted sitting incumbent Republicans expressed commitment to the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) and its goal of ending the use of coal, natural gas and oil. Many in Northern Virginia are also eager to slow down the growth of the data center industry, which is driving up electricity demand across the state.  

    Incoming Governor Abigail Spanberger has been short on details about efforts to limit data center development and remained vague in this long piece put together by the anti-hydrocarbon advocacy outlet Inside Climate News. As was the case with the pro-solar Clean Virginia rallies described in this earlier report, supporters of maintaining the VCEA mandates and target dates used their interviews to build a defensive line against any in their own caucus who might waver.   

    (more…)

  • Dissecting the Blue Wave: Turnout

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A playful donkey jumping in the foreground with a smiling expression, while an elephant rests in the background.
    Dem voters energized, GOP voters lethargic. Image credit: Grok

    by James A. Bacon

    Gov. Glenn Youngkin yesterday blamed Tuesday’s shellacking of the Republican Party in Virginia on the government shutdown. “I firmly believe that the government shutdown was a very, very big challenge as we ran into this election,” he told reporters. “We have 330,000 government workers here that weren’t getting paid. That is a real challenge heading into an election.” 

    Youngkin’s proposition is a not-implausible hypothesis of what happened Tuesday. But does it hold water?

    Government workers were never Trump fans to begin with. They have always been true blue. Did the DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) layoffs and then the government shutdown change a lot of minds? Perhaps a few. But I suspect other factors were at play.

    According to Virginia Public Access Project data, the big change between 2021, in which Republicans swept the statewide offices, and 2025 was a decline in voter turnout among predominantly red localities — not a surge in turnout in government worker-heavy blue districts.

    A scatter plot showing voter turnout percentages for 2021 and projections for 2025, with data points in red and blue, and a shaded area representing higher turnout.
    Source: Virginia Public Access Project. Click here to view the interactive graphic that identifies each dot by locality.

    Turnout in Democratic-leaning localities trended more or less the same as four years ago. By contrast, enthusiasm in red localities was down across the board — in literally every locality. Whatever was ailing Republicans Tuesday was statewide in nature. It’s hard to imagine that the loss of 300,000 federal jobs in Virginia weighed heavily on the minds of Republican-leaning voters in, say Patrick County in Southside Virginia (turnout down 8%) or Giles County in western Virginia (also down 8%).

    (more…)

  • Dissecting the Blue Wave: Fundraising

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A donkey and an elephant standing next to large piles of cash.
    Image credit: Grok

    by James A. Bacon

    Democrats swept the statewide races and flipped 13 House of Delegates seats Tuesday — a watershed in Virginia politics. Any analysis of the Blue Wave must take into account the vast discrepancy in fundraising prowess of Democrats over Republicans, not just in the statewide races but in the House races as well.

    Between statewide and House races combined, Democrat candidates reported $149.6 million in contributions as of October 23. Republicans raised $85.9 million.

    The relationship between money raised and electoral success is a complicated one. Spending more money on a campaign does not guarantee a win: Attorney General Jason Miyares outspent the scandal-ridden Jay Jones but lost to him anyway. But all other things being equal, more money is better than less money. It helps build a better campaign organization and buys more cable TV and social media advertising.

    Abigail Spanberger’s money advantage in the gubernatorial race and Ghazala Hashmi’s money dominance in the contest for lieutenant general have been widely reported.

    Table displaying campaign spending and vote totals for various candidates in Virginia elections, including contributions for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
    Donations reported as of October 23. Source: Virginia Public Access Project

    According to VPAP data, Democrats’ fundraising advantage was just as lopsided in the House of Delegates races.

    (more…)

  • It Was Singular

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Not plural

    Cartoon depiction of a man with blonde hair wearing a suit and a crown, sitting on a round object against a blue sky with clouds.

    by Gordon C. Morse

    Jay Jones prevailed. Manic text messages and a lead foot notwithstanding, Jones will be the next Virginia attorney general — and, you know, that’s democracy. Abigail Spanberger is now the Governor-elect. Virginia Sen. Ghazala Hashmi will be lieutenant governor. They racked up big margins, and it was impressive.

    The results in the House of Delegates — the dramatic growth of the Democratic caucus — was a tad beyond impressive.

    Jones had been the source of worry, of course, though you could feel the winds shifting about after revelations of his colorful texting. Dancing phone fingers, even in the service of the scatological, don’t trump the need to trump Trump.

    Election night was destined to be about Trump, and it was Trump. You can do a half dozen “factors” or “13 reasons” or “21 takes.” But it was still one big, inescapable thing in the form of Donald Trump and all the many matters that have animated the president since retaking the White House.

    Gov. Youngkin said it wasn’t Trump. Blame the federal government shutdown, Youngkin said. Ha. I like Youngkin; he’s been great on economic development. But it was Trump.

    (more…)

  • The Blue Tsunami

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Kerry Dougherty

    A blue and white sign indicating a tsunami evacuation route with a wave graphic and an arrow pointing left.

    There’s no denying that Virginia was swamped Tuesday night by a blue wave. Make that a blue tsunami.

    The Democrats not only swept the top three statewide offices, but they flipped 13 seats in the House of Delegates. Every corner of the commonwealth was at least tinged blue.

    Looking for a sliver of sunshine, Republicans? The Liberty University precinct reportedly voted 95.11% Republican.

    That’s all I have for you.

    The only folks who had a worse night than Winsome Earle-Sears were the pollsters. As usual, they got it wrong.

    As I pointed out last week, Virginia is a tough place to poll. While pollsters consistently had Abigail Spanberger leading in the governor’s race, few – if any – predicted a 15 point landslide. (Ralph Northam won by less than 10 in 2017.) No pollster that I encountered forecast a 10.5 point rout by Ghazala Hashmi for lieutenant governor. And until the final few days almost all polls showed the Attorney General race within the margin of error. Jones won by 6.5 points.

    So what did we learn from Tuesday’s election results?

    Well, we learned a lot about Virginia Democrat voters. Some of it is troubling.

    We learned that wanting to kill your political opponents, piss on their graves and merrily muse about the deaths of their “little fascist” children is not a deal breaker for Democrats when selecting a top law enforcement officer. Neither is likely lying to a court about the community service a candidate did to avoid jail. Continue reading.

  • Virginia’s Dreadful Nursing Homes – Part Five – Chain Corporate Structures and the Undoing of the Regulatory Structure

    Posted on

    by

    sherlockj

    Virginia’s Dreadful Nursing Homes – Part Five – Chain Corporate Structures and the Undoing of the Regulatory Structure

    by James C. Sherlock

    Today, we will examine a big factor in why nursing home regulation fails. It is doomed in part by the organizational structures of chains that mask a deadly lack of corporate ethics. Government regulators not only do not stop it, but are currently helpless to do so for the simplest of reasons. They know nothing about those structures and the internal fees and rents that drain funds from the operating companies and from patient care.

    The problem starts with a federal law.

    The HUD/FHA Section 232 program is an FHA loan product that provides mortgage insurance for residential care facilities. It is a 66-year-old carve-out for the nursing home industry in the National Housing Act.  Section 232 offers FHA guarantees for non-recourse, below-market fixed-rate, long-term loans at up to 80% loan-to-appraised-value ratios. Lender’s fees are generally 3.5%. The cost for new construction can include land purchase.

    The loans may be used to finance the purchase, refinance, new construction, or substantial rehabilitation of a project. A combination of these uses is acceptable – e.g. refinance of a nursing home coupled with new construction of an assisted living facility.

    Every nursing home that is purchased or renovated using a loan backed by a Section 232 guarantee has its own operating company and realty company that serves as the landlord for the operating company. That is a 232 program requirement designed to protect the real estate collateral of the loan from failure of the operating company. The loans are made to the realty company.

    Operating and realty companies are separate LLCs, but the members of each are usually the same people, at least initially.

    That is where many chains get creative, both to protect the assets even further and to generate internal fees with enterprise structures borrowed from the real estate industry.

    (more…)

  • Virginia Is a Deep Blue State Now. What’s Next?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A map of Virginia showing various regions in shades of red and blue, indicating different data points or demographic information, with surrounding states and notable cities labeled.
    VoteHub shows where Virginia voters backed Spanberger and where they supported Earle-Sears. Source: Newsweek. Posted at the request of Carol Bova.

    Democrats swept the statewide races and massacred Republicans in the House of Delegates. (The new House will be 64 Democrats and 36 Republicans.) Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, can do anything she wants. How will she govern? She campaigned as a moderate, but how will she respond to the demands of Virginia’s ascendant left wing?

    Readers, hold forth in the comments.

  • A Blue Tsunami

    Posted on

    by

    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    by Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Image credit: Times of India

    Yep, the polls were wrong. Democrats won much bigger than any predictions.

    Not only did Spanberger win by over 14 points, Hashmi won by almost 10, and Jones, despite his texting scandal, had a comfortable margin of six points.

    In the biggest surprise, Democrats flipped 13 House seats. Even Don Scott, Speaker of the House, did not expect this; he had predicted they would pick up four seats. When Bobby Orrock, who has represented Caroline County for almost as long as anyone familiar with the General Assembly can remember, is beaten by a Democrat by a healthy margin, you know that something major is going on.

    There are a lot of Bacon Rebellion commenters in great despair this morning.

  • Vote!

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A group of people protesting in the street, holding signs that read 'VOTE', 'NO JUSTICE NO PEACE', and 'RESIST NO PEACE'. One woman in the foreground is passionately expressing herself while others appear engaged in the demonstration.
    Image credit: Grok

    Save Virginia from left-wing radicals.

    by Kerry Dougherty

    Well, whaddya know, it’s Tuesday, November 4th. Election Day.

    No matter how busy you are, no matter what’s going on, don’t sit this one out.

    VOTE.

    Especially if you love Virginia and don’t want our commonwealth to turn into an East-coast version of tax-mad, crime-ridden, gender and pronoun-obsessed California.

    Remember how good it felt the day after the 2021 election, when Glenn Youngkin beat Terry McAuliffe and you knew that it was Independence Day in Virginia? 

    VOTE.

    Remember how you woke up the morning after that historic election and knew the vaccine mandates that cost state workers their jobs were a thing of the past? You knew that statewide mask mandates were not coming back. You knew that parents were going to be heard at their kids’ schools and school officials would no longer be allowed to hide a child’s gender confusion from their parents. You knew that schools would focus on excellence instead of kowtowing to teachers’ unions. You knew that the parole board would not be turning murderers loose.

    I could go on, but if you were in Virginia in November 2021, you remember the overweening tyranny of the Northam administration and his Democrat monopoly on the state house and how good it felt to shake it all off.

    VOTE.

    If all goes well – and if the polls are wrong – we’ll feel that sense of relief again tomorrow. Youngkin’s common-sense policies will continue with Winsome Earle-Sears.

    She’ll be able to pump the brakes and veto the sick agenda the Democrats have in store for the commonwealth. Continue reading.

  • Voting in Ignorance

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Voters go to the polls today without seeing the candidates debate critical issues ranging from redistricting to the energy crisis.

    A concerned voter stands in front of a ballot box, looking puzzled, with a thought bubble featuring a question mark, symbolizing confusion during the voting process.
    Image credit: Bing Image Creator

    by Derrick Max

    With election day now upon us, Virginia voters were short-changed this election cycle while Democracy is literally being threatened! 

    Virginians were limited to one, short, poorly controlled debate for Governor, one equally short, but slightly more substantive debate for Attorney General, and zero debates for Lt. Governor – unless, of course, you count the surreal spectacle of Republican nominee John Reid debating an AI version of Democrat Ghazala Hashmi after she refused over ten invitations to appear on stage with him.

    Worse yet, Virginia’s extended, 45-day early voting rules robbed a half million voters of having even these two debates inform their vote as both were held well after early voting had already begun and votes were already cast.  

    Compounding the impact of this debate failure, is that the Democrats, just one week before the election, and after the two inadequate debates were over, called back their members to vote on an amendment to the state constitution to literally overthrow the will of Virginians who voted in 2020 in favor of a bipartisan commission to draw congressional maps. Democrats voted to ignore voters and return the Commonwealth’s redistricting process to the hands of a partisan map drawing cabal.

    Such a monumental decision should have been a central topic of debate for candidates of all three of the Commonwealth’s statewide offices. More importantly, voters should have had more time to hear from their State Delegates on this issue as they will have the most say over the future of this troubling amendment.

    (more…)

  • Ignore the Polls. Vote

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Kerry Dougherty

    These are scary times in Virginia. If you believe the political polls – and there’s no reason you should, they’ve been wildly wrong for years in the Old Dominion – we may be about to fork over all of state government to radical leftists.

    It’s almost as if voters have forgotten what happened a short five years ago when Democrat Ralph Northam shut down schools for more than a year, locked us out of our churches and synagogues and forced even five-year- olds to walk around in filthy, useless face diapers.

    God help us all if there’s another public emergency during a Spanberger governorship.

    But even without a pandemic a Governor Spanberger would be dangerous. For a start she wants to dismantle Virginia’s Right-To-Work laws, so if you’ve dreamed of being forced to join a union, this is definitely your girl. Continue reading.

  • Will Spanberger Sweep in the Democratic Ticket?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    An illustrated image of a woman in a business suit holding a broom outside a large building with columns, smiling confidently.
    Image credit: Grok

    by Paul Goldman

    As a general rule, a big underdog like the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee would gain a few points as the campaigned closed. But the polls are indicating a move towards the Democrats. If true, this could be enough to lift the struggling Democratic LG and AG nominees to victory. 

    Historical statistical analysis says there should be a Democratic sweep if Spanberger wins by more than nine points. Based on the 2017 statewide contest held in the shadow of a Trump presidency, a 10-point or more win would seem expected. In this regard, the mediocre approval ratings given GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin also has contributed to the Spanberger margin. The Youngkin aides promoting him as presidential timber must’ve grown up on Easter Island, where all the forest is long gone. The so-called “Youngkin Brand“ hardly seems useful in 2028 if it gets wiped out in his home state. Thus, his relatively lack of engagement seemed odd. 

    The best Democratic gubernatorial candidate performance in the modern era occurred in 1985. Democrat Jerry Baliles won by slightly more than 10%. As I said months ago, the historical statistics indicated Spanberger should break Jerry’s record. At the time the polls were suggesting the gubernatorial race would be close. This never made historical statistical sense.

    In terms of the political chessboard, one has to say Spanberger’s team ran an exceptionally disciplined race. I have criticized them for leaving her running mates twisting in the wind, at least by campaign standards when I used to run campaigns. In my book, it was unnecessary in relation to her winning big. But that being said, she had the right to do it and for her it’s clearly been the right move.

    (more…)

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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