by Paul Goldman

Virginia GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin is vowing to finish “strong.” With all due respect, it might have been better if he had started “strong.” His party just suffered its worse defeat in Virginia’s two-party era. If that’s finishing strong, I’d like to know what he thinks finishing weak looks like. 

Fact: No Republican connected to Trump’s MAGA has ever or will ever be elected Governor of Virginia. Or U.S. Senator. I wrote months ago on these pages — in my column saying John Reid won the short straw not primary gold — that the historical numbers pointed to Spanberger likely breaking the all-time percentage record for any Dem gubernatorial in the two-party era. I also thought a ticket sweep seemed likely based on my analysis of historical voting statistics. 

Next prediction: Will the Virginia Democratic Party try to wipe out the Virginia Republican Party if the super partisan redistricting amendment is approved by the voters this spring? My answer: 100% for sure. The path to such destruction is foreseeable. 

The GOP is incapable of stopping the constitutional amendment. In theory, a big majority of Virginians support the non-partisan redistricting overwhelmingly approved in 2021. But the GOP has no credibility with this vast independent constituency. 

Democrats,  led by now partisan Democratic Governor Spanberger, will spin the vote as a referendum on President Trump. It’s possible, of course, the Trumpster will be far more popular in April than it was last Tuesday. It’s also possible actress Anne Hathaway will finally agree to go out with me. My odds are not good, but they’re hugely better than the GOP’s chances of defeating the constitutional referendum.

In order to defeat the referendum, the GOP will need to agree to take a backseat to a bipartisan group leading the fight against the return to partisan redistricting. Good luck with that. But even if you could achieve this impossibility, the Democrats will outspend the anti-amendment group by many tens of millions. In 2023, Democratic consultants spent $15 million in trying to pass the Richmond Casino referendum. In an 85% Democratic city. I led the opposition. We were outspent by 40-to-1. Yet we won. I had a plan which folks let me execute. But looking at the upcoming 2026 Redistricting Referendum, the chessboard seems far more difficult for the opposition. 

Thus the GOP’s only hope of not being wiped out again in 2026 is the United States Supreme Court. How anyone could sleep soundly hoping Justice Thomas will have your back is beyond me. My bet is the GOP will be saved by the Supremes. But stranger things have happened. The GOP lawyers could easily blow it. At some point, the Supremes will want show they aren’t in Trump’s pocket. Virginia will go for the Democratic candidate for president in 2028. Thus. the Old Dominion might offer the perfect case for the court to tell Democrats they are owned by the Republicans. 

Therefore: if the Democrats win the constitutional referendum, they  could deal the Republicans a fatal blow. They will create nine congressional districts for the Democrats to win. Leaving the GOP with just two remaining members of the House of Representatives. Neither one a potential statewide candidate

Assume 2027 arrives and the Republicans have only two members of Congress. This guarantees in my mind another GOP wipeout in the 2027 November election. But this time Senate Republicans will also be on the ball. They could be reduced to a mere 12 out of the 40 members. With none of them for any of the populated areas increasingly dominate state elections.

The Republicans will be in their worst shape since segregation.

In fact, Virginia will be reduced to a one party state.

It could be 40 years before there is another GOP governor. So much for Glenn Youngkin finishing strong. He will simply be finished. 

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party, a former candidate for mayor of the City of Richmond, and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”