Bacon's Rebellion

  • The Virginia GOP’s Sole Hope: Democratic Overreach

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A group of animated farm animals, including a pig, cow, goat, sheep, and horse, are sitting around a dining table enjoying a meal together.
    Overreach. Image credit: Chat GPT

    by Chap Petersen

    It’s been a month since I’ve sent out a newsletter. Since that time, Virginia has seen a statewide election and the Federal shutdown has come and gone. And UVA is on the verge of going to the ACC championship in football.

    Twenty-four years ago, when I entered the Assembly as an unlikely Democratic challenger, the Republicans controlled 66 seats in the House of Delegates, as well as the State Senate — and 8 of 11 Congressional seats.

    Today, the state has completely flipped. The Democrats control all statewide offices, the State Senate and 66 seats in the House of Delegates. Notably, the Democrats control the state politically, because they control it economically (they have a monopoly on all high-wealth legislative districts).

    One of the great ironies has been the Virginia Republicans who for years failed to support campaign finance reform legislation, even though they would have been the biggest beneficiaries. (Super-size donors in Virginia lean pretty far left).

    (more…)

  • New Ways to Soak the Rich, But Tax Hikes Coming Will Be Broader

    Posted on

    by

    Steve Haner

    By Steve Haner,

    A mansion tax? That will go over big in Northern Virginia.

    As a new Democratic Party trifecta looms in Virginia, a progressive policy group has floated a long list of old and new ways to soak Virginia’s upper income residents through taxes in order to fund additional state spending.   

    The Commonwealth Institute for Fiscal Analysis doesn’t use the word “spending,” of course, but speaks of “investments” in “quality public education, health care, affordable housing, access to food.” 

    According to the most recent report on state government spending trends, from the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission, the state’s payments to localities for school operations have grown 7% annually, about double the rate of inflation, and the cost of the Medicaid program has grown 12% annually, more than three times the rate of inflation. Those two by themselves have added $22 billion to the state budget in ten years. 

    But the appetite for more is on full display following the election. Later this week the money committees for both the House of Delegates and Senate will hold retreats away from the capital to hear likely warnings that the projected revenues are inadequate for a host of “unmet needs,” what a Republican Finance Committee chairman used to call “bills in the drawer.”   

    The Commonwealth Institute has the path to financial salvation: 

    (more…)

  • Updates to Regional Nursing Home Assessments

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    by

    sherlockj

    Updates to Regional Nursing Home Assessments

    by James C. Sherlock

    On November 16, the author revised previous articles on the nursing homes in the Eastern, Central, and Southwest regions to provide better data and explain it better in a much-revised spreadsheet.  

    The format the author chose previously wasn’t getting the job done, so he changed it.  

    The new one should provide more clarity. The spreadsheet is designed to be self-explanatory. The sums and averages line at the bottom of each shows regional results.

    Changes in the text were made only to reflect the updated spreadsheet.

    Southwestern region

    Central Region

    Eastern Region 

    And yes, on average, the Central Region has the worst nursing homes, driven by the outsized presence of the worst chains.

    Articles on the Northern and Northwestern regions will quickly follow.

  • Jeanine’s Memes

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    by

    James A. Bacon

    Three soldiers in historical military uniforms pose together with rifles, while a text overlay humorously critiques misconceptions about socialism.

    See more memes at the Bull Elephant

  • Performance Issues at TJ, Revisited

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Increased enrollment of economically disadvantaged students seems to have had only a minor impact on academic performance.

    by John Butcher

    Responding to discussions (here,  here, here, and here) of a new admissions policy and a decline in the US News ranking of TJ (aka Fairfax County’s Thomas Jefferson School for Science and Technology), I posted an analysis of the end-of-year test (“SOL”) data through 2025. Since then, I’ve had a chance to try to think more clearly (says he), with the following results.

    But first: VDOE reports pass rate averages for “economically disadvantaged” students (“ED” here)(mostly those who qualify for free/reduced price meals, i.e., this is the bureaucratic euphemism for “poorer”), their more affluent peers (“Not ED”), and all students. ED students generally perform less well than the Not ED, see, e.g., this.  Most of the VDOE reports and, it appears, the new Accreditation system (and, also, the US News rankings, see below) look at the all students averages. That serves to unfairly penalize the schools and divisions with large ED populations (and to benefit those, such as TJ, with a small ED group). A fair system would look at both groups and probably would emphasize the performance of the group that needs more attention, the ED.  This post looks at the recent ED and Not ED data for TJ, in addition to the all students results.

    VDOE scores SOL tests on a 600 point scale.  Passing is 400. As well, there are two “pass” classifications. Scores above 500 are counted as Pass/Advanced; those from 400 to 500, Pass/Proficient. The sum of those two rates in the overall pass rate.

    The 2021 testing was voluntary so that year’s data surely are not reliable measures. I’ve omitted them here.

    To start, a helpful VDOE database gives us the “Fall Membership.” Here is the dataset for TJ:

    Table showing enrollment data at Thomas Jefferson High School from 2015 to 2025, including numbers of economically disadvantaged (ED) and not economically disadvantaged (Not ED) students, total enrollment, and percentage of ED students.
    (more…)

  • Bacon Meme of the Week

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    by

    James A. Bacon

    Text graphic humorously linking the term "crunches" to the sound of eating bacon, stating: "If by 'crunches' you mean the sound bacon makes when you eat it, then yes I do crunches."

  • How Community Development Supports Economic Development

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Modern building with a sleek design, featuring large windows, a well-lit entrance, and greenery in the surroundings. The structure prominently displays a logo on the front.
    The EO Regional Workforce + Child Development Hub in Abingdon.

    by Alex Dadok

    With Virginia’s election behind us, there’s a sense among some of wanting to find common ground. Those from all political persuasions share an interest in creating additional jobs and economic development for Virginia’s communities.

    Community development — such as quality childcare, housing, healthcare, education, parks and amenities, transportation, and more — can support these economic development efforts in real and concrete ways. When a community is functioning at a high level to provide services and make itself an attractive place to live, work, and play, it’s easier to attract businesses. Community development partnerships, including the coalitions and dedicated public-interested leaders working in these areas, often make that quality of life possible.

    Yet, for when many regional leaders think about economic development, community development is an afterthought. That’s a counterproductive posture.

    Let’s look at a few examples of how community development partnerships affect economic development and will continue to affect economic development in Virginia. Then, we will turn to discuss the interplay between community development partnerships and economic development efforts and consider how these two dynamics might best reinforce each other.

    (more…)

  • Securing the Vote

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    New Jersey Democrats do a better job with election integrity than Virginia Democrats, who take their cues from California.

    by Jacob Grandstaff

    The Nov. 4 elections were disappointing for Republicans in that they weren’t surprising for Democrats. New Jersey is a reliably blue state that sometimes swings purple, and Virginia is a reliably purple state that usually swings against whichever party occupies the White House. For those who believe in secure elections, however, Virginia offers more cause for concern.

    The state’s ridiculous election laws make blue New Jersey look like a bastion of election integrity, showing just how far off the deep end Old Dominion Democrats have sunk.

    Portrait of Ken Cuccinelli, a man with short gray hair, wearing a light blue dress shirt and a patterned tie, smiling against a dark blue background.
    Ken Cuccinelli

    In an exclusive interview with Restoration News, Election Transparency Initiative chairman Ken Cuccinelli noted, “There have been over 60 changes to Virginia election law since Democrats had their 3-way sweep in 2017.”

    Born in New Jersey and raised in Virginia, Cuccinelli served as Virginia Attorney General from 2010 to 2014, before Democrats’ election “reforms” turned a once-secure election day into a 45-day marathon and a potential fraud magnet.

    It’s like Marc Elias rewrote our laws,” he said, referring to the Democrat operative who bankrolled the Steele Dossier against President Donald Trump in 2016.

    (more…)

  • Virginia GOP’s Strategic Blunder: Overlooking Legal Immigrants

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Srilekha Reddy Palle

    Portrait of a woman with long dark hair, wearing a light-colored top and a textured white blazer, smiling in front of a lush green background.
    Srilekha Reddy Palle

    Despite nearly two million foreign-born residents now calling Virginia home — representing more than one in five voters in Northern Virginia alone — the party completely squandered the chance to engage these communities under the state’s new outreach and voter engagement provisions.

    This is not a minor oversight. It’s a monumental strategic failure. While neighboring states are building durable pipelines with first- and second-generation voters, the RPV has treated immigrant engagement as an afterthought.

    Demographic Reality: According to the American Community Survey, Virginia’s immigrant population has surged by over 35% in the last decade, with immigrants now comprising 16% of the total population and 20% of the state’s workforce.

    Voter Power: Roughly 1.2 million naturalized citizens are already eligible voters, with another 400,000 legal permanent residents on track for naturalization by 2030. These are potential swing voters — not abstractions.

    Missed Legislative Tools: Recent state-level reforms have expanded funding and legal pathways for civic engagement, language access, and small business outreach — all of which could have been used to cultivate trust and visibility within immigrant communities. The party has done absolutely nothing with these openings.

    Community Disengagement: There are zero recurring outreach programs, zero coalition-building efforts, and zero partnerships with cultural or faith-based organizations that are already mobilizing these voters.

    The result? Silence. Total vacuum. While Democrats and community groups run weekly engagement events, party can’t point to even one sustained initiative. The political math is brutal — losing even 5% of persuadable immigrant voters could determine outcomes in close Northern Virginia districts.

    (more…)

  • Abigail Spanberger Bullies UVa Board

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Kerry Dougherty

    The rotunda of the University of Virginia at sunset, showcasing its architectural features and surrounding trees.

    Take a seat, lady.

    Someone needs to remind Abigail Spanberger that Virginia has just one governor. And until January 17th it ain’t her.

    Spanberger may have had an impressive win on November 4th, but Gov. Glenn Youngkin gets to carry out the duties of the office HE was elected free from her meddling for another two months.

    Earlier this week Spanberger decided to poke her nose into affairs at the University of Virginia. She’s worried the Board of Visitors is about to appoint a president who will insist on merit-based admissions for students and color-blind promotions in the administration, so she wrote a letter urging them to hold off on selecting a new university president until she’s in office.

    Spanberger’s WAY out of line. I hope the board ignores her and finds a replacement for Jim Ryan quickly.

    Spanberger, as we all know, is a fan of DEI. She supports advancing less-qualified candidates over qualified ones provided they check the proper boxes: female, racial minorities, extra points for being gay. Transgendered? Furry? Chef’s kiss!

    Remember, in a June 2023 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the use of race as a factor in college admissions, also known as affirmative action, is unconstitutional. Clever disciples of DEI have found ways of getting around the ruling. It would be refreshing if the president of Virginia’s flagship university actually followed the Constitution.

    In his first week in office, President Trump issued a series of executive orders targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in the public and private sectors. UVa had to be dragged kicking a screaming into compliance, which resulted in the departure of ultra-woke president Ryan a few months ago.

    A search is now on for his replacement. Continue reading.

  • Spanberger’s Political Amnesia

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by The Jefferson Council

    A woman with blonde hair wearing a dark blazer and white shirt looks slightly perplexed or amused in a formal setting.
    Female politician with amnesia. Image credit: Grok

    In a striking act of political amnesia, Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger has demanded that the UVA Board of Visitors refrain from choosing a president until she can appoint new BOV members, when, in fact, the 100% Democrat-appointed Board of Visitors exercised no such restraint following the election of Governor Youngkin four years ago. 

    At the March 2022 Board of Visitors meeting, Jim Ryan’s employment contract – still three years from expiring in 2025 – was quietly extended until 2028 by the Democrat-appointed Board prior to Governor Youngkin having an opportunity to appoint one Board member. It was done within a closed session, with no foreknowledge or explanation, and only announced afterward. The Board’s action was clearly intended to ensure Ryan’s tenure beyond the period that Governor Youngkin would be in office and his Board appointees in control of the Board. 

    Moreover, at that very same March 2022 meeting, the Board affirmed Ian Baucom as Provost, thus confirming Jim Ryan’s unilateral selection of Mr. Baucom as Provost announced without any search committee or public discussion two days before Governor Youngkin’s inauguration.

    (more…)

  • Also Worth Reading…

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    The first university has admitted to race-based hiring
    by Scott Douglas Gerber in The Hill

    Money quote: After Students for Fair Admissions was decided, [Interim President Paul Mahoney] wrote, the university had received new guidance that “commits us to cease using race as a criterion for employment.” Of course, the university cannot “cease” using race in employment decisions unless it was previously using race in employment decisions. In short, UVA has finally admitted what the Justice Department suspected all along — making Virginia the first major college or university to proffer such an admission. (Predictably, the standstill agreement includes the standard boilerplate language that the university “expressly denies liability.”)

    Read the whole thing.

    ‘Queen’ Michelle Reid and Fairfax County’s $4 billion school bullies
    by Stephanie Lundquist-Arora in The Washington Times

    Money quote: Since 2019, FCPS’s leaders have spent $44 million on legal fees. At least some of this money, coming from its massive $4 billion annual budget, is being used to bully parents, children and community members who are inconvenient for their image or agenda. As Kate (an alias for a victim of an alleged sexual assault in Fairfax County Public Schools] said, “The school district’s traditional defense whenever anyone speaks up is to scream that they’re lying or fraudulent. Then, they hire big law defense firms billing millions in taxpayer dollars to crush the everyday person and polish their own image through public relations.

    Read the whole thing.

  • Spanberger Inherits School Improvement Push

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    The future political prospects of Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger could rise and fall with student test scores.

    by Kevin Mahnken, The 74

    Two women embrace joyfully in a school cafeteria, with one wearing a blazer and the other adorned in a floral top.
    Abigail Spanberger visits Hermitage High School. Photo credit: Flickr

    Democrats’ romp in  Virginia elections offered an almost complete redemption of their poor performance four years ago. 

    In that race, Republican Glenn Youngkin upset national expectations to seize the governorship, with a raft of GOP challengers riding his coattails to both statewide office and a new majority in the House of Delegates. Their victories were powered by growing discontentment with then-President Biden, but also backlash to local education moves ranging from COVID-era school closures to proposed limitations on gifted education.

    Those results, among the first signs of the tumult that would come to define the Biden era, were flipped this time around. Virginia Democrats racked up commanding margins up and down the ballot, with U.S. Rep Abigail Spanberger’s gubernatorial win accompanied by a 13-seat swing in the legislature. The part of unpopular incumbent president was played by Donald Trump, whose sagging approval in the state helped sink Republican candidates. 

    What’s not certain is whether Spanberger and her party have won back public trust on the issue of K–12 schools — or whether they intend to roll back portions of the far-reaching education agenda enacted during Youngkin’s time in office. The outgoing governor has shepherded the adoption of a new school accountability system, raised cut scores for proficiency on federally mandated exams, and revamped the state’s academic standards in history, math, English, and computer science. Some of his initiatives have won support from across the political aisle, but resistance from some educators and progressives could tempt the ascendant Democrats to reverse others. 

    (more…)

  • Harrisonburg Councilman Denounces ICE Actions

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Deb and Joe Fitzgerald

    In a Harrisonburg City Council discussion Wednesday of ICE activities in the city, council member Nasser Alsaadun, an Iraqi-American immigrant, made a heartfelt personal statement about what it means when Immigration and Customs Enforcement seizes a city resident.

    Portrait of Nasser Alsaadun, an Iraqi-American immigrant, wearing glasses and a dark suit, with a neutral background.
    Nasser Alsaadun

    “I wanted to thank council members, Mayor Reed and the City manager, for having the courage actually to make movements towards our people, and as an immigrant, I feel the pain when they take you away from your family. I have a friend who has been detained and taken from his family and his daughter, nine years old, for more than three weeks or more. She still cries every single day, and is asking everyone, ‘Why? What did my father do?’

    “And I know him, he’s a great man, he has a PhD and no criminal record, and he’s working hard. He wants just to be a peaceful person with his family, with his kids here. He’s taking his education and obeying the law and paying his taxes and everything. Just he wants to be safe with his family. That’s all. And in return, he was treated inhumanely. Why? For nothing?

    (more…)

  • Winners, Losers and Lessons from the ’25 Elections

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Chris Saxman

    Winners

    Abigail Spanberger – the former congresswoman ran a virtually mistake- free campaign. Smart, disciplined, and organized Spanberger ran up the margin of victory through an onslaught of TV ads and message consistency. In a sea of chaos, she offered boring but good. Suburban voters like that and Virginia suburban voters can’t stand Donald Trump. See lessons below. Spanberger made history as the first female governor in Virginia and she has a real opportunity to be one of the best given all the challenges ahead. If her campaign is an indication of her upcoming fast four-year term, Spanberger should overperform expectations.

    House Speaker Don Scott — wow — the onslaught of commercials by House Democrats was impressive was due to the fundraising prowess of the Speaker. Those ads also mirrored the messaging of Spanberger. No wonder Democrats won swing voters almost 80/20 which piled up 13 new House Democrats. That makes 64 out of 100. Speaker Scott looks to be in firm control of the Virginia House well into the next decade. Savvy, pragmatic, and strategic. Now that’s a trifecta.

    Affordability — what’s President Trump focusing on this week? Affordability. When state and city campaign themes change messaging in the White House? Yeah, that’s called Winning. His ideas are unaffordable — tariffs, tariff rebates, and pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates (shhh.. don’t tell Heritage), but will Democrat ideas be any better? Republicans in the midterms better be praying that the Supreme Court tosses Trump’s tariffs. And don’t get me started on 50-year mortgages… Alex, I’ll take Dumb and Dumber for $800, please.

    (more…)

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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