• The Economics of Flood Control in Virginia

    Hampton Roads base flood – 1% annual risk

    by James C. Sherlock

    We have work to do, and need to do it quickly and well.

    • If we want to get storm defenses built before major storm damage rather than after; and
    • if we want the federal government to pay 65% of the costs.

    Letโ€™s assume we do.

    The โ€œVirginia Coastal Resilience Master Planning Frameworkโ€ appears to be heading in a direction that may miss important pieces of any benefit/cost assessment. And those assessments drive federal interest.

    The assumption in Framework going forward appears to be that the value of flood protection is in loss avoidance. Exclusively.ย 

    Indeed, all of the work that I can find in flooding assessments Virginia is put towards the goal of understanding the costs of such losses.

    Not sufficient, but fixable. (more…)


  • Rules Are for the Little People: Terry McAuliffe Edition

    Terry McAuliffe violated federal mask-wearing regulations while traveling on an Amtrak train this summer, as seen in photos obtained by Fox News. The Democratic Party candidate for governor, who has urged others to wear masks, spoke maskless on a cell phone while walking through Union Station and boarding a train, according to the passenger who snapped the photos. (more…)


  • Quote of the Day: Mary Trigiani

    Mary Trigiani is a management consultant in Southwest Virginia. One of her interests is rethinking “economic development” in the region. I was struck by this morning’s lead-in to her daily newsletter.

    Economic development is, for some, the game of redistributing taxpayer money and sustaining agencies for that purpose โ€“ without reporting ROI back to taxpayers or marking real progress. When itโ€™s done right, however, economic development is an intricate process of modeling businesses, vetting partners, and building bridges โ€“ so that people can find jobs, prosper, and enjoy life. This shift in definition is a condition of todayโ€™s renaissance. And I believe Virginiaโ€™s Great Southwest will show the way.

    — JAB


  • God, COVID and the Rage Against the Unvaccinated

    by James A. Bacon

    “There is a growing rage among the people who are vaccinated about the people who have refused a free and effective vaccine,” Stephen Farnsworth, an oft-quoted political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said recently. “We’re all going back toward lockdowns because of the selfishness of a few.”

    As Farnsworth notes, there may be political fallout from the rage against the unvaccinated. The people who feel this righteous anger carry an image of the unvaccinated as White don’t-tread-on-me Donald Trump voters putting their personal liberties ahead of the common good… Except when they acknowledge that a few of the unvaccinated are Black. They view Black vaccination resistance more charitably as an understandable, if misguided, response to the infamous Tuskegee syphilis study that ended a half century ago.

    But I wonder. How many unvaccinated Blacks cite the Tuskegee study? How many are wary of “systemic racism” in the healthcare system? Are such tropes widely shared view among Blacks — or a construct of journalists, academics and other members of America’s clerisy?

    After a lengthy conversation with an African-American tradesman who is active in my neighborhood, I have come to question the Tuskegee talking point. And I suspect that vaccination resistance among many Blacks likely arises from their religious faith. Viewing the world through a secular lens, America’s clerisy may be downplaying the influence of religious thinking among the unvaccinated. (more…)


  • “You Have to…”

    by Dr. A Schuhart

    The indoctrinal push to impose Critical Race Theory across American society is centered in the verb phrase to have to. Its primary meaning states a requirement, but it is a requirement that also connotes a threat for failure to comply. In every training and in every managed discussion of DEI at the Northern Virginia Community College (NOVA) that I have to attend, the arguments used to โ€œpersuadeโ€ me have been prefaced by this troublesome helping verb.

    I hear โ€œyou have to see thatโ€ and โ€œyou have to understandโ€ and โ€œyou have to look at it this wayโ€ in every part of the structure of this vast toulminian hornswoggle known as CRT. Yes, it is true that if I see it your way, then I will agree with you. But it does not follow that because you think you are right, that I have to see it your way, or consequently, that you have the right to force to do so. This is an irrational claim, a fallacy at the core of CRT โ€œreasoning.โ€

    Further, this belief that I have to think, or see, your idea your way gives rise to a set of false deductions that end in conflict, rather than consensus. See, you who think I have to think about CRT and DEI a certain way fail, firstly, to declare your full logical claim. What you mean is I have to see it your way for it to be true because the only way CRT can be true is if everyone says it is true, for it is not logically true (as I am demonstrating here). (more…)


  • Understanding the Jackson Statue Controversy

    by Donald Smith

    Perhaps youโ€™ve noticed the discussion over the past year about the banishment… er, sorry, removal… of Stonewall Jacksonโ€™s statue from the Virginia Military Institute’s Main Post. Well, hereโ€™s another contribution. I will make the case that the powers-that-be behind the excision of Jackson’s memory from VMI weren’t trying to help the institute. They wanted to humiliate it.

    The Barnes and Thornburgh analysts who studied the racial climate at VMI noted that many people attend VMI because they want a military experience.ย  Men and women who enroll at the academy are a lot like cadets or midshipmen at West Point, Annapolis, the Air Force Academy, the Citadel and Norwich.

    Military schools, and military men and women, honor leaders who showed courage, determination and excellence in battle. Military schools are normally proud of the great generals and admirals they produced. (more…)


  • The Enrollment Gap Colleges Don’t Like to Talk About

    by James A. Bacon

    While college administrators across Virginia and the United States fixate on the racial/ethnic makeup of their institutions, there’s a large and growing gender gap. Young women dominate enrollment at most higher-ed institutions these days. Fewer young men are applying, and even when they do, they’re dropping out more frequently. Administrators don’t like male-female imbalances because students don’t like it — colleges are mating markets as much as they’re centers of learning — but no one seems to be doing much about it.

    There is no simple explanation for the large and growing mismatch. There is likely the same kind of “pipeline” problem we see with minorities — fewer males are applying for college because fewer are graduating from high school with college-ready skills. Additionally, males also may be more prone to substance abuse and mental illness, syndromes that are highly disruptive to academic performance.

    There’s another possible reason, one that appeals to conservatives who see higher-ed institutions as dens of ideological inequity. In a higher-ed world dominated by the ideology of interesectionality — heterosexual white males are the O- of human society, universal oppressors — young men, especially young white men, experience college as a hostile environment. There may be some merit to this view, but it is only part of a larger story. (more…)


  • Another Sick Idea: Vaccine Passports for Domestic Travel

    by Kerry Dougherty

    Oh look. Rep. Don Beyer, a Virginia car dealer who served eight years as Virginiaโ€™s lieutenant governor and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1997 against Jim Gilmore, is in the news. The congressman who represents the second-most Democratic district in the commonwealth — the 8th — has joined the Biden administration in trying to completely balkanize America into the vaxxed and unvaxxed.

    As if Bidenโ€™s likely illegal mandates to force federal workers — excluding postal workers or members of congress — to be vaccinated wasnโ€™t a strong enough start on a medical apartheid system in the U.S., Beyer wants to go full Fauci on the unvaxxed.

    To that end, Beyer has introduced a bill that heโ€™s dubbed โ€œSafe Travel Act,โ€ which would ban the unvaccinated from commercial flights and Amtrak unless they can produce a negative COVID test not more than 72 hours old.

    This bill may be masquerading as a safety measure, but it is purely punitive. (more…)


  • Bacon Bits: Wind, Rain and Sun Edition

    What happens when the wind doesn’t blow? The North Sea, locale of the world’s largest cluster of wind farms, normally delivers strong, consistent wind flows that keeps the turbines spinning. But every once in a while, weather happens and the winds diminish. That’s what’s occurring now. Blame it on global warming, if you will — that seems to be the explanation for every inconvenient fluctuation in rainfall, temperature and extreme weather.

    Whatever the cause, according to the Wall Street Journal, the falloff in wind is wreaking havoc in the United Kingdom, where wind supplies 25% of the nation’s electric power. Due to the wind “shortage,” marginal electricity prices have shot up to the equivalent of $395 per megawatt/hour (or $0.395 per kilowatt hour). That compares to the statewide average of $0.11 per kilowatt hour in Virginia. To make up the deficit, UK utilities have been burning more… coal. Coal will provide a backstop until 2024, when all coal-fired plants will be shuttered. Is anyone in Virginia paying attention?

    Speaking of coal… Southwest Virginians are still casting around for ideas of what to do when the coal plants close. There is no lack of creative thinking. I just don’t know how practical it is. Here is the latest: growing artisanal grains. Once upon a time, Virginia’s coal counties grew grain to supply alcohol feedstock for a booming coal-town bars and saloons. The economics shifted in favor of massive Midwest farms, which enjoyed economies of scale, and local grain farming nearly ceased. But, according to The Virginia Mercury, local economic-development groups want to play on the local-food movement to make Southwest Virginia a primary source of specialty grains for Virginia’s growing craft beverage industry. Virginia imports 400,000 bushels of grain into the state. Snaggingย  a piece of that action could support a lot of farms.

    With climate change, who knows how that will work out. Let’s hope the rain keeps falling. (more…)


  • Louisiana Shows How Flood Control Can Work at Massive Scale

    by James C. Sherlock

    Louisiana has half the population of Virginia. Virginia is ranked the 18th richest state in per capita income, Louisiana 48th.

    So, why has Louisiana been so phenomenally successful in flood control efforts since Katrina while Virginia writes its own framework for action that it is too expensive here?

    Primarily because Louisiana figured out after Katrina that:

    1. the feds simultaneously have all the flood control resources — money, expertise, experience, scale — that states do not have, and both write the regulations and regulate flood control.
    2. the state had to organize both the state and local governments to deal with the federal government with a single voice.

    The new agency charged with that monumental and immediate task, while quickly and iteratively creating itself, was the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) of Louisiana.

    There is much for Virginians to know about and learn from Louisianaโ€™s success. You will see that the Bayou State has way bigger flooding problems to solve than does Virginia.

    Their success must be a model for us.

    Yet the Commonwealth seems hell bent on ignoring the methods that enabled that success. Our leaders also deny that engineered defenses, โ€œcastles,โ€ are even affordable as part of the solution set in Virginia. Each idea is both ill considered and dangerous.

    I will describe briefly how Louisiana has done its part in this. (more…)


  • 9/11 Flags Vandalized

    In commemoration of the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attack, Young America’s Foundation, a conservative student group, planted 2,977 flags in the University of Virginia’s Amphitheater. Vandals knocked down the flags and flipped a table with a banner. Expressing solidarity with the perpetrators, Twitter users equated the memorial service to the white supremacist torch march of the infamous United the Right rally and said falsely that YAF has “ties to the neo-Nazi movement.” See the full story here. — JAB


  • Forced Unionism Is Back on the Menu

    by Shaun Kenney

    First things first. Republican challenger Glenn Youngkinโ€™s internal polling has him showing a slight lead against Democratic former governor Terry McAuliffe 48-46.

    What Afghanistan giveth Texas shall taketh awayโ€ฆ

    Yet with the 2022 Generic Ballot showing the environment at D+0.3 at present? Those numbers can only improve Republican hopes moving forward, as new polls indicate that both Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares are building on their existing leads.

    Even National Review is getting in on the game as Virginia Democrats are debating whether or not to double-down on defunding the police:

    Vulnerable Democrats in the House of Delegates seem to share Youngkinโ€™s intuition about crime and the political consequences of their partyโ€™s record on the issue, and are feverishly working to reverse themselves as a result. (more…)


  • A Closer Look at Those “Driving While Black” Statistics

    by James A. Bacon

    When the Commonwealth published its Virginia Community Policing Act traffic-stop database last week, theย Richmond Times-Dispatchย spun the data this way:

    Black drivers are disproportionately stopped and arrested, and they have their cars searched at higher rates than any other race statewide.

    Here’s what the RTD could have written:

    Black drivers stopped for traffic violations were disproportionately likely to be let go with warnings — or subject to no law enforcement actions at all.

    Any fair-minded story would have provided both conclusions and conveyed the complexities and uncertainties in analyzing the data. Instead, the newspaper settled for cherry picking data that supports its ongoing Oppression Narrative. The reporters did not come right out and say that the statistical disparities are attributable to “racism” or “discrimination,” but the implication is clear enough. In contemporary society, statistical disparities are widely deemed to constitute proof. (more…)


  • I’m Baaaack!

    Many thanks to Dick Hall-Sizemore, Jim Sherlock and DJ Rippert for filling Bacon’s Rebellion with lively, informative content during my vacation absence. — JAB


  • Redistricting: Let the Lawsuits Begin!

    Sen. Travis Hackworth (R-Tazewell) Photo crecit: Steve Helber/AP

    by Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The first draft maps had not been drawn when the first lawsuit challenging Virginiaโ€™s redistricting process was filed.

    Sen. Travis Hackworth. R-Tazewell, along with several other plaintiffs, is challenging 2020 Virginia legislation that required, for redistricting purposes, prison and jail inmates to be allocated to the population counts of the locality of their last known address, rather than to the localities in which the prisons and jails in which they were incarcerated, as had been the practice in past years. (That legislation was the subject of an earlier BR post.)

    Because most prisons are located in rural areas, by shifting their populations to other areas of the state for purposes of the population totals used in redistricting, the lawsuit claims that the change will politically weaken rural areas.

    The basis for the suit is unusual. The defendant is the newly constituted Virginia Redistricting Commission. The Commission was established through voter approval of a constitutional amendment approved in a 2020 referendum. The court petition claims that, because the legislation dealing with how the Commission should treat prison populations during its redistricting efforts was passed by the legislature and not approved by voters in the referendum, the legislation is invalid. (more…)