Bacon's Rebellion

  • RVA 5×5 — Who Really Voted Down The Casino Referendum?

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    Robin Beres

    by Jon Baliles

    The casino referendum is the issue that won’t go away — kind of like a desperate or compulsive gambler who stays put because the next hand is the winning hand, or the slot player who is completely convinced the next pull of that handle will deliver the jackpot. At some point, you need to walk away.

    The relentless effort to build a casino in Richmond and revive the referendum for the third time in 2023 (it failed in 2021 and tried but failed to return to the ballot in 2022) is about to become the hottest potato tossed around the General Assembly session when it opens next week. I won’t bore you to tears with recapping the details from the past few months — this is a look back at the vote in 2021 and what it means in 2023 — but you can read more about the non-stop casino drama here, here, and here, if you so desire.

    The people voted the casino down in 2021 in a referendum that was required by the state, but Mayor Stoney and others looked at the results and concluded the easiest and most convenient explanation of the final tally could be explained by race. Except, what Stoney and others maybe didn’t realize is that the voting data show that the referendum failed because a huge number of Terry McAuliffe voters also voted against the casino.

    The Stage

    Before we get into the data, however, let’s set the stage. Richmond is lobbying the legislature hard as we speak and will stop at nothing to get the referendum back on the ballot in 2023. Petersburg wants to have a shot at a casino referendum next year and make Richmond wait a few years since they already tried and failed. If Richmond does get approval for another referendum, the casino applicant in Petersburg has said it will not move forward with its plan and there would be no need for a referendum in Petersburg. So, the stakes are clear and the battle has already been joined. Stay tuned.

    The inability of Richmond’s leaders to get the casino application/selection process completed and on the ballot for the 2020 election (like the other four casinos in Virginia did) cost them dearly. In a presidential year, that referendum would have been approved easily given the high level of turnout (the other four cities approved their referendums in 2020 with at least 65%). We saw a tight gubernatorial race in 2021 (with a record voter turnout for a gubernatorial election, but still lower than a presidential year), and the casino referendum went down to a very narrow defeat. (more…)

  • Things Fall Apart: Workforce Edition

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    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    A friend of mine, a Richmond-area attorney, received this message from his accountant explaining the increasingly difficult conditions in which his business was operating:

    Increasingly, we’ve experienced extreme disruption with our US Postal Service as well as the handling of payments by government agencies, regardless if they have confirmed delivery. This has caused unwanted computer-generated notices and unwarranted penalties and interest. The Virginia Department of Taxation has also recognized this issue and has announced that all tax payments above $1,500 MUST be made electronically.

    Pre-COVID, I bemoaned the increased complexity of our information systems and the glitches that result from their imperfect interoperability. Now add to that the labor shortage — not just the shortage of workers with the necessary technical skills but with the right attitudes. After a generation of setting lower expectations, demanding less precision and exactitude, and excusing failure and mediocrity to spare children’s tender feelings, we have created a generation of young people who are sloppier and more careless than their predecessors.

    The other day, I encountered a young woman behind the cash register who had trouble making change for a dollar. I’d never seen that before. Ever.

    The problems experienced by my friend are murder on workforce productivity. We all suffer from it, even if we don’t see what is in plain sight. (more…)

  • Democrats Want to Raise Youngkin-Proposed Mental Health Budget Increase

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    sherlockj

    Health Resources and Services Administration Mental Health Care Health Professional Shortage Areas, by State, as of September 30, 2022, data.HRSA.go.                 Courtesy Governor Youngkin

    by James C. Sherlock

    There is fundamental agreement in Richmond over mental health services.

    From the Richmond Times-Dispatch:

    Virginia’s forecasts of long-term budget surpluses mean this year’s General Assembly has a chance to catch up with years of under-funding Virginia schools and the state’s behavioral health system, General Assembly Democrats say.

    To govern is to choose. “Democrats” may wish they had used different words than “years of underfunding,” considering who had control in Richmond in 2020 and 2021.

    But it is actually helpful that they now think even the governor’s proposal for a 20% increase in the mental health budget approved last year is not enough. If (a big if) more money can be spent efficiently and effectively.

    The governor has proposed a $230 million increase in behavioral health program spending over what was approved last year.

    So, as the old saying goes, they are just discussing price.

    Let’s look at the behavioral health situation to see why. (more…)

  • Mysterious Laptop May Hold Clues To Virginia Beach Mass Shooting

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    by

    Robin Beres

    by Kerry Dougherty

    Most of the country is focused on the chaos taking place in Congress.

    That’s nothing compared to the slice of crazy unfolding in Virginia Beach.

    As best we can stitch together from Facebook and stories in The Virginian-Pilot, a member of the House of Delegates has been sitting on what could be a key piece of evidence in the mass shooting at the Virginia Beach Municipal Center in May of 2019.

    Del. Kelly Convirs-Fowler, a Democrat, claims to have a laptop belonging to Dewayne Craddock , the city employee who murdered 12 people in a gruesome bloodbath in Building 2 on May 31, 2019 before he was finally killed by police.

    According to a Facebook post Wednesday, Convirs-Fowler no longer has possession of the mysterious laptop, but has entrusted it to her lawyer.

    The delegate refused to turn the computer over to Virginia Beach police who wanted to authenticate it as belonging to Craddock and examine it to see what’s on it.

    According to The Pilot, Convirs-Fowler is also refusing to return the laptop to the woman who allegedly possessed it after the shootings. Convirs-Fowler was given the laptop by a third party.

    Confused yet?
    (more…)

  • You’ll Have to Pry My Steering Wheel from My Cold, Dead Fingers

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    James A. Bacon

    The latest from the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy….

    I don’t have any philosophical objections to electric vehicles. If they offer better performance for the price than combustion-powered cars, I wouldn’t hesitate to buy one. I do have public-policy reservations about government subsidies for EVs and EV infrastructure, and I do have concerns about the impact of a 100% electric fleet on the reliability of the electric grid. But none of that would dissuade me from buying an EV.

    Here’s what would dissuade me: government mandates taking away my freedom of choice.

    As the TJI clip highlights, current Virginia law essentially requires California EV mandates to apply to Virginia. That law anticipates banning the sale of new combustion vehicles within ten years. If you want to buy a new car, it’ll have to be an electric vehicle.

    My reaction: Go Californicate yourself.

    I’ll drive my Rogue Sport as long as it lasts, as long as spare parts can be scavenged from junk yards, and as long as there are still gas stations to sell me fuel.

    — JAB

  • Preparing for the Costs to Government of Virginia’s Generation COVID

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    sherlockj

    John Littel, Virginia Secretary of Health and Human Resources

    by James C. Sherlock

    To justify her insistence on keeping schools closed, Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, said in February of 2021, “kids are resilient and kids will recover.”

    She brought that same message to Virginia.

    In one of the strangest choices in Virginia political history, Terry McAuliffe brought Weingarten to Virginia to campaign with him on the last weekend of his losing gubernatorial campaign.

    Thus sealing his defeat.

    It turns out, as it was always going to, that you can’t keep kids out of school for up to a year and a quarter, homebound, and expect all of them to “recover.”

    I will call here those in K-12 during COVID school shutdowns Generation COVID (Gen C).

    I wrote the other day of an estimate by a renowned educational economist that the 1.2 million Gen C kids in Virginia public schools would lose several hundred billion dollars in lifetime earnings because of un-repaired damages to their learning of all types.

    His critics here argued into the night about study methodology, but none denied costs at some level would be there. They did not offer their own estimates.

    John Littel, Virginia’s Secretary of Health and Human Resources, has the job of preparing his agencies for the lifetime social costs of those children. (more…)

  • Trust, but Verify

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    by

    Bob Rayner

    by Jim McCarthy

    Thirty-five years ago this past December, President Ronald Reagan asserted U.S. policy with respect to international nuclear arms controls was to be guided by “Trust, but Verify” (TBV). Mikhail Gorbachev who led Russia from 1985-1991 through dissolution of the Soviet Union had led the promotion of glasnost, a policy of openness and transparency, as that nation’s initiative in global activities. Capitalizing upon these dynamics, Reagan co-opted a Russian rhyming proverb – doveryai, no proveryai or trust, but verify – to appeal to and connect with the Russian ethos to create a common understanding and criterion in nuclear arms control.

    For the most part, TBV has been limited as an axiom within the international order of public policy and has achieved little traction within the U.S. national politisphere. TBV might have better informed Georgia voters about Herschel Walker and New Yorkers about George Santos. Essentially, however, John Q. Public is left to his own devices with respect to assessing trust by way of verification. Too often, however, trust results from acute or even painful experiences, e.g. Nigerian princes phishing emails, robo calls from IRS agents, crypto Ponzi schemes.

    Prior to the events of January 6, 2021, the election results from the November campaign had been challenged by more than 60 failed lawsuits and confirmed by multiple re-counts among several states. Despite such verification, mistrust and distrust persisted across a broad spectrum of doubters including thousands who assembled at the Capitol on the day Congress was in session to verify the results submitted by the states. Of the thousands who protested, over 950 (January 6 Capitol Riot Arrests at usatoday.com) have been criminally charged and over 450 have entered guilty pleas.

    Forty-three Virginians are numbered in the totals. (more…)

  • Chaos in Congress Isn’t Good for Virginia

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    Robin Beres

    by Robin Beres

    In a recent column for the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Rep. Bob Good (R-VA 05), noted that as of this month, “the U.S. House of Representatives will be the only thing standing between Americans and the Democrats’ assault on freedom, the family, the economy and our national security.”

    The GOP won the House majority by a slim margin in November 2022. So, if Good is so concerned about the Republicans’ ability to address so many pressing issues, isn’t it odd that he is being such a willing contributor to the humiliation the GOP is inflicting upon itself right now?

    What should have been a quick vote on January 3 for a Speaker of the House — a requirement before Congress can begin working on any of the people’s business — ended in the House adjourning Tuesday with no Speaker. Three consecutive votes failed to garner enough support for GOP leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA 23) to secure the gavel for his party.

    The failure to elect a leader on the first vote is the first time this has happened in 100 years. The opposition is coming from a small group of far-right-wing Republicans who appear to be reveling in the chaos they are causing and the humiliation they have dealt to McCarthy. Bob Good is one of them.

    I’m not sure what Good, who considers himself a biblical conservative, hopes to derive from this nonsense, other than reveling in the national attention. If he and his team of hyper-conservatives wanted to start this Congress making the GOP look like a bunch of inept buffoons, they’ve surely succeeded. If they wanted to give the Democrats a good laugh, they’ve also succeeded with that. Check out the Twitter picture of Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA 33), posing outside the House Chamber with a bag of popcorn. (more…)

  • Thawing the Brain Freeze at City Hall

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    by

    Bob Rayner

    Richmond City Hall

    by Jon Baliles

    We can be thankful for a weather warm-up this week after last week’s bitter cold. Maybe it will help thaw the brain freeze at City Hall and enable them to fix the shelter situation before the next bitter cold arrives (hint, it’s coming back).

    Last week, after Tyler Lane at CBS6 filed a cringeworthy report about the failure of the City to provide enough shelter and people being turned away, City Hall was opened at the last minute for the two days over the Christmas weekend for people to warm up. But then those in need were turned back out into the cold at 4 p.m. each day just as the temperature fell back into the teens.

    The City did get two shelters open in Manchester with a capacity of about 100 beds in November (with about 450 needed total) through two non-profits. The excuses from the Administration for not opening the other shelters and expanding capacity were legion. The City is still quibbling with one non-profit over contract terms before they can get funding and open for the winter (they opened last week briefly with private funds to get through the cold spell). (more…)

  • Dealing with Trolls

    Posted on

    by

    Robin Beres

    by Carol J. Bova

    In March 2022, The Atlantic published an article, “Trolls Aren’t Like the Rest of Us,” by Arthur Brooks, a contributing writer at The Atlantic and the host of The Atlantic podcast “How to Build a Happy Life.”

    Brooks wrote:

    If you use the internet, the odds are about even that you’ll be mistreated there. A 2021 Pew Research report found that 41 percent of U.S. adults have personally experienced some form of online harassment. Fifty-five percent think it is a “major problem.” Seventy-five percent of the targets of online abuse say their most recent experience was on social media. I can’t think of any other area of voluntary interaction—with the possible exception of driving in rush-hour traffic—where people so frequently expose themselves to regular abuse.

    But we are not helpless in the face of either online abusers or the ones flipping us off on the highway. In fact, they are mostly one and the same: bullies with personality disorders. And you can protect your happiness by dealing with them both in some tangible, practical ways.

    He points out that “people try to reason with trolls or appeal to their better nature” and shares this link to research that explains why those approaches don’t work. Why? Because trolls usually want “to attract attention, exercise control, and manipulate others.” (more…)

  • Virginia’s Largest School System Pays $455,000 for ‘Equal Outcomes’ Consultant

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    by

    Bob Rayner

    by Hans Spader

    Students vary widely in intelligence and willingness to work hard. Why would anyone expect “equal outcomes for every student, without exception”? But that’s what educational consultants paid for by Virginia’s largest school district expect. The consultants were hired by Fairfax County Public Schools, which have 180,000 students.

    Their goal is to “produce equal outcomes for every student, without exception,” reports The College Fix:

    Virginia’s Fairfax County Public Schools reportedly paid almost half a million dollars to a firm whose “Equity Imperative” is that all students’ academic performance result in equal outcomes. Documents obtained by Asra Nomani show the district paid $455,000 to Oakland, California’s Performance Fact to “analyze student data to identify trends and recommendations in support of the development of strategic goals,” among (many) other things. It also “facilitated” school board “work sessions/retreats” which allegedly were “focused on the development of the [district] strategic plan.”

    The September 20, 2022 retreat was led by company CEO Mutiu Fagbayi. … A PowerPoint for the retreat titled “Equity-centered Strategic Planning” is, like many diversity/equity/inclusion (DEI) documents, full of flowery, yet vacuous, academic lingo. It includes the typical comparison between equality (“resources and supports are distributed evenly, irrespective of individual needs or assets”) and equity (“incorporates the idea of need; distribution of resources and supports is purposefully unequal”)….Then there’s that “Equity Imperative” which is “equitable access to resources and opportunities that guarantee fair, just, and affirming experiences and produce equal outcomes for every student, without exception” (emphasis added).

    (more…)

  • Projected $312 Billion Cost of Lost Earnings of Virginia K-12 Students due to Pandemic School Closures

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    sherlockj

    Courtesy Eric Hanushek

    by James C. Sherlock

    Over $312 billion in present value.

    That is the estimate published by Stanford’s Eric A. Hanushek of expected economic losses attributable to Virginia’s pandemic school closures.

    Virginia students in the COVID cohort can expect on average 5.5 percent lower lifetime earnings.

    History indicates that the economic losses will be permanent unless the schools get better. Just returning schools to their pre-pandemic performance levels will not erase the lost learning.

    Recovering from the pandemic requires swift and decisive improvements to the schools.

    That number is an estimate, but a scientific one. Dr. Hanushek has better credentials with which to make that estimate than perhaps any other economist in the world.

    For perspective, the $312 billion present value of projected losses to the Virginia economy due to COVID school shutdowns represents about seven years of state revenue realized from Virginia sources in the 2021 and 2022 biennium.

    Even the money pales by comparison to the developmental and emotional damage done to the children.

    But feel better.

    His estimate of similar losses to California exceeds $1.2 trillion. (more…)

  • Just-in-Time Remediation for Kids Who Fall Behind

    Posted on

    by

    Robin Beres

    by Matt Hurt

    There have always been students who have evidenced a year or more delay in their independent working ability. Unfortunately, our educational response to the pandemic of closing schools and offering virtual instruction has made this problem significantly worse (more on that here). Today there are significantly more students who are a year or more behind in their ability to work on grade level skills than before 2020.

    The term “learning loss” has been used to describe the situation caused by our educational response to the pandemic. It seems that this term is an incorrect characterization of our current situation. To have lost something, one first must have had it. During the closures and subsequent offerings of virtual instruction many kids did not learn what they should have during that time. Some kids regularly participated in virtual instruction and they learned most of what they were taught. Some kids rarely if ever participated in virtual instruction and therefore didn’t learn what was expected. Unfortunately, the kids who were in the latter group tended to make up a significant part of our economically disadvantaged kids. This group typically has less structure in their homes to support these efforts.

    For the purpose of this essay, everything discussed will be limited to the content areas of English and math. These skills (Standards of Learning or SOLs) are very well sequenced from Kindergarten through high school in such a manner that if students learn the skills from the previous grade, they have all of the prerequisites necessary for success in the following grade. These skills definitely build upon what was taught in previous grade levels, and any gaps in learning that a student has will result in negative consequences later on.

    To understand the instructional process, we must first understand that there are a variety of skills that a student must master to be able to independently work on a given grade level. If a student has significant gaps in skill attainment, he or she will assess to be working on a lower grade level than the current grade placement. That does not necessarily mean that the student has learned nothing from the previous grade, but is missing some key aspects.

    For example, SOL 2.6b requires students in second grade to determine the sums and differences of two numbers of no more than two digits. This is the first year students are expected to regroup, i.e. borrow for subtraction and carry numbers while adding. In third grade, SOL 3.3a requires kids to determine the sums and differences of two numbers of up to four digits. If the student did not master SOL 2.6b in second grade, he or she does not have the prerequisites to learn SOL 3.3a in third grade. The student may or may not have learned all other second grade skills. It is unlikely that any third grade student would have mastered no second grade skills unless they were simply not taught the content. (more…)

  • Farewell to the Conscience of Virginia Beach City Council, John Moss

    Posted on

    by

    Bob Rayner

    by Kerry Dougherty

    If you were in Virginia Beach on Wednesday morning, November 8, 2022, you could almost hear the sighs of relief.

    That collective exhalation came from the cronies on city council who would no longer have to deal with Councilman John Moss, who came in second in a three-way race for the newly created District 9.

    The other members would no longer have to squirm when the Republican pointed out that his colleagues deceived the public when they boasted that they’d held the line on property taxes by keeping the RATE static. Rising real estate assessments in the city meant taxes WENT UP for most residents, he always pointed out.

    Holding the line would mean lowering the rate.

    Moss was right, of course. But it seems you really can fool most of the people most of the time.

    Beyond that, city council would no longer have to deal with a budget wonk who was skilled in monetary matters. He was not content, as they were, to let city staff cook up spending plans with excesses that necessitated the falsehood about taxes staying the same.

    Year after year Moss accused the city budgeteers of deliberately funding vacant positions, using the loot as a slush fund for their pet projects.

    And year after year, Moss’ “revenue neutral” budget proposal died with little or no support from his colleagues.

    Beyond that, the local newspaper often ignored Moss, sometimes treating him as a kook, adding to the perception that he was simply a gadfly who’d managed to steal a seat on this body filled with friends of powerful developers and entertainers.

    Truth was, Moss had served the people since he was first elected as part of a good government slate in 1986 with a mission to slow down the rampant construction of homes that were springing up in a hodgepodge fashion around the city. Uncontrolled growth contributed to the flooding crisis that the city experiences today. (more…)

  • Cold Iron in Downtown Richmond

    Posted on

    by

    Bob Rayner

    by Jon Baliles

    The Free-Press Editorial page’s second at-bat this week also scored a hit with “No Hot Iron Here.” The piece calls out the Mayor for allowing the hot iron of development opportunity to cool to the disadvantage of the City. It mentions the selection of five teams that bid on the “City Center” development opportunity, which includes the demolition of the Coliseum, the refurbishing of the Blues Armory, as well as building a convention center hotel and ancillary development. That is all moving forward with a development process that it seems the Mayor and the City have finally realized is one worth repeating instead of plans like Navy Hill.

    But the editorial focuses on the properties on the other side of Broad Street that hold (or held?) massive potential. They are the rarely mentioned properties and opportunities that would be big wins for downtown but have remained idle since the Mayor took office in 2017.

    In the two years since the council killed the $1.5 billion Navy Hill deal, the Stoney administration has yet to issue requests for developers for city-owned surface parking lots at 6th and Grace streets and 4th and Broad streets. Both are south of Broad Street and already had active interest, and both have been ripe for activity while interest rates were still low, which is no longer the case. (more…)

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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