After getting dinged by one referendum and with sagging poll numbers, Spanberger is set to get dinged by three more. So, where’s the moderate?

by Shaun Kenney

The VCU Wilder Center released its post mortem poll results for Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger and the results are not good for Democrats heading into the midterm elections.

Not only do 47% believe the Commonwealth is headed in the wrong direction (as opposed to the 39% who believe everything is on the right track), Spanberger’s approval ratings are 44-46% with a massive 35% of Virginians strongly disapproving of her tenure thus far — that’s 1 in 3. Only one in five Virginians strongly support.

Read the full VCU Wilder School poll here.

Making matters worse, 31% of Virginians are concerned about inflation and the cost of living — the marquee issue Spanberger ran upon before delivering a 300% pay increase to the Democratic-controlled General Assembly. Another 11% are concerned about housing affordability. While campaigning on such things in 2025 sounds politically smart, governing on such issues in 2026 uncovers all sorts of landmines — not just the fact that state governors can only make the problem worse and not better in terms of fees and taxes, but that until Virginia gets serious about the disconnect between local land use, state transportation dollars, regional economic development, and above all else energy infrastructure. Things are only set to become more — and not less — expensive when it comes to the things under Richmond’s control.

Affordability cometh for Virginia’s colleges and universities as well, with 50% of respondents saying the average cost to tuition is “much too high” and a whopping 79% overall indicating that it is too high. Only 17% found that the cost was priced right with only four respondents indicating that the price was low or an outright steal.

Pro tip: Defending the unpopular makes you unpopular

Bob Holsworth offers his own take of the VCU numbers vis a vis Spanberger and the manifest of forced errors her team has racked up over the last six months:

[T]he Spanberger team over-read how personal the 2025 election results were. Democrats everywhere were overperforming by large numbers and Virginia was experiencing the brunt of federal employee and contracting cutbacks and Elon Musk’s DOGE chainsaw.

While the Spanberger campaign has focused on her commitment to ”lowering costs, it is very difficult for the Governor of a single state to lower costs when the national economy is inflating. In addition, that affordability agenda that Spanberger touts is relatively thin gruel, more nerdy than populist and doesn’t contain a signature priority that most Virginians could identify today.

The near catastrophe with the state budget in an unprecedented game of political chicken over data centers and social justice programs cannot be understated.

Not only is Wall Street watching from afar, but changing the rules of the game regarding the MOUs on data centers impacts every memoranda of understanding ever signed in Virginia. Energy prices are spiraling north — not due to data centers, but certainly due to an aggregate of failed policies championed by so-called “green” initiatives — and the decision to include Virginia back into RGGI only makes those matters worse.

Then there’s the redistricting fiasco. Apologists for Spanberger will argue that she was forced into supporting the gerrymandering effort, yet not only was Spanberger a full-throated supporter of the $80 million effort, not only did Virginia spend $11 million to have the vote in the first place, not only did it fail in front of the Supreme Court of Virginia, and not only are voices such as State Senator Dan Helmer (D-Fairfax) threatening to pack SCOVA so as to get correct opinions rather than legal ones, but Virginia Democrats are about to foist three equally repugnant and constitutionally problematic state amendments that are so far beyond the pale even Democrats are privately cringing about their impact on congressional races in November.

Spanberger’s conundrum is that she had the opportunity to be the centrist and the moderate. Not only did she break her word, Spanberger’s early governance has turned her back on the core campaign pledge of affordability in favor of highly divisive social issues — including transgenderism and gender ideology in the state constitution under the guise of an abortion amendment, redefining marriage as opposed to an outright repeal of the marriage amendment, and actually restoring the rights of pedophiles so as to allow felons to serve on local school boards.

Spanberger’s approval ratings are emblematic of the same environment Virginia Republicans walked into back in 2021, where the public was angry and demanding change and Virginia Democrats remained at sixes-and-sevens.

Which brings us to the four races Virginians should keep their eyes upon.

Virginia 2026: Three defending, one golden opportunity

We should start with Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) in VA-01, where he faces a strong challenge from Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor — whose fundraising will be enough to focus attentions. Wittman remains a ranking and well-liked member of both Congress and Virginia Republicans, known for his principled conservativism in the very best of its traditions. Wittman will have to defend his seat, but there are few in Virginia who campaign as hard or as well.

The real contest is in VA-02, where Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) will square off against former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA). Both candidates are known, both candidates are well liked by their own base. Yet Luria — like most Democratic candidates — will have to contend with a base whose fascination with the Democratic Socialists of America will ultimately require their pound of flesh. What will Luria promise? Whatever it is, don’t expect it to be popular with mainstream Virginians.

The more interesting contest will be VA-05 where Rep. John McGuire (R-VA) will most likely square off against former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA) in a district that has only grown since Perriello’s tenure in office and that growth being decidedly more in line with the values of Northern Virginia and the University of Virginia rather than Southside Virginia and the values of Liberty University. Yet much like VA-01 and VA-02, the “Fighting Fifth” is also looking to send a message to both Richmond and Washington.

Which brings us to my old stomping grounds in the Fredericksburg area — and most notably, Spanberger’s former district — in VA-07, where retired Lieutenant Colonel Doug Ollivant will most likely square off against retired Lieutenant Colonel Yevengy “Eugene” Vindman (D-VA).

Here is a race where Vindman narrowly defeated his erstwhile Republican opposition by less than 10,000 votes two years ago despite a massive $10 million cash advantage and outspending the GOP candidate nearly 6 to 1. This is a district with a heavy military and veteran presence on top of a solid rural core towards Culpeper, one that is well educated and intolerant of political chicanery. With an electorate looking to send a message to Spanberger in her own district and Vindman’s national profile, combined with a candidate that is clearly putting in the work, one expects the White House to make this a highly competitive race after the primary with an ideal candidate at the helm in Ollivant who can challenge Vindman line by line on national security.

The golden opportunity is definitely with Ollivant in VA-07. Not only that, but a DSA-backed independent is challenging Vindman on his left for not being socialist enough. Given the generic ballot about six points lower for the Democrats nationally than what it was in 2018 and that Vindman barely scraped by in a 51-48 contest, not only should Republicans hold across the board — Vindman is in deep trouble indeed. Should the present dynamic remain the case, the other three races will have all the energy they need to keep Republicans in place in Virginia.

Lest it be mentioned, this naturally ignores the U.S. Senate race with Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) most likely squaring off against retired General Bert Mizusawa. Warner remains the most popular politician in Virginia thanks to his “radical centrist” persona, but as his own consultants continue to have him screaming and swearing into the iPhone, Mizusawa is going to give Warner a run for his money. If one assumes that even in bad years that Virginia is 53-47 lean Democrat, the sagging congressional ballot numbers combined with agitation from the DSA wing of the political left means that Warner might have to cough up 4… 5… 6 points?

Then we get to the three sandbags.

Q. Will Virginia Democrats double down on crazy?

What might have made sense to the DSA types while Spanberger enjoyed a 15-point margin in November 2025 clearly doesn’t make sense now. As Holsworth and others continue to point out, Spanberger really did believe that her election results were an endorsement of her rather than a repudiation of Trump — the ambrosia of every politician.

Spanberger is realizing too late that the old Potomac Two Step — where every politician governs two steps to the left of how they campaign — doesn’t quite work in the muck and brine of the James River.

As opposition to the state amendments ramps up, there is a certain sobering effect of not having $80 million on hand to push crazy, making it far harder for the referenda to stand on their own two feet (which is very ableist of me — mea culpa).

The counterarguments to each are simple enough.

• “Bodily autonomy” is code for transgendering kids.
• Forcing pastors and priests to sign off on mock marriages against their deeply held religious belief is a First Amendment violation that will be struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.
• Automatic restoration of rights means pedophiles can serve on school boards.

Gross. Outrageous. Wood chipper.

Combine the near universal disgust with Mamdani and the rise of democratic socialism as an actual option, the contaminant rise of anti-Semitism on the political left, the knife fighting within the General Assembly, the dysfunction in Richmond, and Spanberger’s volte face on the “radical centrism” that has served Virginia Democrats for a quarter century — and there is no denying a very simple fact.

Virginia Democrats are out of money, short on ideas, and very much in trouble for the 2026 midterms. Should this dynamic hold going into 2027, Virginia Republicans are just two state senate seats away from providing a sanity check against a political left held in thrall to either socialism or crazy.

Don’t forget — the loyal opposition is watching. Virginia Republicans can offer a sound and economically rational alternative in contrast with budget hysteria and off-the-wall social agendas of democratic socialism. Spanberger cashed out every ounce of political capital on the gerrymandering referendum and followed it up with a budget crisis that handed out 300% pay raises to lawmakers.

Now Virginians are in a mood to punish.

Shaun Kenney is senior editor of The Republican Standard. This column has been republished here with permission of The Republican Standard.