Bacon's Rebellion

Joel Kotkin, a prolific author and namer of trends in human settlement patterns (e.g. “white flight”), has written a new book. Kotkin’s latest idea–the dominance of “suburbia”–is trumpeted by the headline of the lead story in the Outlook section of Sunday’s The Washington Post: “Rule, Suburbia: The Verdict’s In. We Love It There.” The first paragraph punchline: “The Winner is, yes, sprawl” sells books but it masks reality.

Without reading another word or understanding anything about what Kotkin is actually describing, thousands who saw the headline will smile to themselves knowingly. Even those who read the opinion piece or Kotkin’s new book, to say nothing of the millions who never heard of Joel Kotkin, will continue to assume that the human settlement pattern that has agglomerated over the past 80 years is just fine. Many concerned about the impact of dysfunctional human settlement patterns will think Kotkin’s “research” means that “we did the best (or only) thing we could.” Citizens and organizations will believe and act as if it is in their best interest to continue to make the same ill-advised location decisions they have been making for decades.

What is most amazing is how little of what Kotkin has to say is related to what readers think he is talking about. Kotkin tries to describe in broad strokes and witty prose what many would agree is happening within urban areas of the United States. The problem is neither Kotkin nor his readers have a conceptual framework or vocabulary sufficiently robust to describe or understand the process much less help citizens or their organizations support a rational future course of action. Without this framework and vocabulary Kotkin warps the important historical landmarks like Ebenezer Howard’s “Garden City” movement. He also misinterprets most of what he sees in the United States and in urban areas world-wide.

Aristotle, who was trained in medicine and natural science, noted over 2,330 years ago that human settlement patterns are organic systems. Since at least the Renaissance there has been no serious dispute about this fact. Yet there is not single source of data or observation cited by Kotkin that is not completely oblivious to what the fact that human settlement patterns are organic systems means.

A large forest does not grow by the largest tree in the center of the forest getting bigger and bigger. The forest expands through the growth of organic subsystems. When nutrients (citizens and money) are fed into a regional settlement pattern it grows the same way. What has not changed over the past 80 years in the organic system we call the National Capital Subregion (or in the Greater Richmond or Hampton Roads New Urban Regions) are the municipal boundaries. What were areas at the fringe of the urban system 80 or even 30 years ago are now within the logical location of a Clear Edge. These areas are subject to enormous growth pressures in all prosperous New Urban Regions.

Due to the ossification of municipal boundaries what was once confusingly labeled “suburban” is now very clearly “urban.” The studies, sources and observations that Kotkin cites still call these places “suburban.” That is like calling NFL players toddlers because 20 or 30 years ago they were toddlers.

One needs to look up the definition of “suburban” in the Oxford Unabridged Dictionary to understand that this word of 15th and 16th century origin and to understand that silly definitives such as “suburbia” is a source of mass confusion in 2005.

The photos used in The Post opinion piece to describe what is happening in “suburbia” are of Bethesda. Bethesda and Tysons Corner are not in Carroll or Fauquier Counties. They are within Radius = 10 miles of the core of the National Capital Subregion, just were you would expect urban growth to be taking place. This is true for vast majority of examples Kotkin cites.

Within 10 miles of the centroid of the National Capital Subregion (or any other urban settlement) there are 200,000 acres. Within 40 miles of the centroid that reaches places like Carroll and Fauquier there are 3,217,000 acres. What is happening at Radius = 10 miles R=10) is used to excuse what is happening from R=30 to R=100. (See “Scatteration,” 25 September 2003 at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com )

Of course technology has impact on the patterns of settlement. But technology has not modified human genes. That is why the market for built space shows that, at the unit, dooryard, cluster, neighborhood and village scales, the areas with the highest values per square foot are remarkably similar whether originally built in 1700, 1900 or 2005. (See “Wild Abandonment,” 8 September 2003 at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com)

The gross scatteration that Kotkin and others call “sprawl” represents a small percentage of the urban land uses. They are primarily urban dwellings and they are there because of counterproductive subsidies (See Bacons Rebellion Blog posting of 7 Feb 2005 on Affordable and Accessible Housing) and the failure to equitably distribute location variable costs of goods and services.

Geological Illiteracy and dysfunctional human settlement patterns are fostered and maintained, not just by the headlines and photos but by all the authors and agencies who refuse to understand the organic nature of human settlement patterns.

EMR

I don’t see much merit in amending the state Constitution to ban same-sex marriage, as the state Senate voted 30 to 10 yesterday to do, but after reading Tyler Whitney’s account in this morning’s Richmond Times-Dispatch, I’m almost ready to endorse the darn thing out of pure contrariness.

Said Sen. Mamie Locke, D-Hampton: “It is xenophobia that led to the rise of Nazism in Germany and fascism in Italy. It is homophobia that brings us to this place in time today.”

Said Janet D. Howell, D-Reston: The Nazis ordered the Jews in concentration camps to wear yellow patches and gays to wear pink patches. “In Virginia today, we do not require pink triangles. We stigmatize and marginalize people in other ways, as we go down a path that we don’t know where it will end.”

In other words, passing an amendment that would deny gays the right to marry — a right that they’ve never possessed in any culture since the dawn of time — is the moral equivalent of fascism and Nazism, and only a short slide down the slippery slope to tossing gays into concentration camps. I’m sorry, that’s not an argument. It’s name calling.

Far more persuasive was Sen. Richard L. Saslaw, D-Fairfax: If senators were really interested in protecting marriage, they’d address the high rate of divorce. “It’s not what gay people are doing to marriage, it’s us.”

The House version of the budget cut some of Gov. Warner’s proposed spending on economic development for Southside and Southwest. This Roanoke Times editorial assigns blame:

Then there’s the “I got mine, Jack, and I want more” attitude among some legislators from thriving areas. Riding high on technology, services and federal spending, and with unemployment rates as low as 2 percent, they’re far more concerned with passing new tax cuts than helping to revive less-fortunate regions where joblessness runs as high as 14 percent.

They are not their country cousins’ keepers.

The Times editors call Warner’s “Virginia Works” proposals “promising, proven and often business-approved development tactics.”

If I’m not mistaken, this week Gov. Warner will make two more in what has become a series of positive economic development announcements for Southside and Southwest. Somehow, existing economic development organizations and programs appear to be doing pretty well.

A few months ago Gov. Warner appointed me to the Virginia tobacco commission to fill the unexpired term of former Virginia Attorney General Mary Sue Terry, who resigned for business-related personal reasons. Like many of the thousands of appointments made by Virginia governors, this one is subject to confirmation by the Virginia General Assembly. Typically, these appointments go off without a hitch and are so routine as to seem automatic. But not this time. This morning I received a call from a Republican member of the House P&E committee (Privleges and Elections) alerting me to the fact that my appointment would, in all likelyhood, not be recommended by P&E to the full House for confirmation, in pure retribution for opinions I frequently express in a regular column I write for Bacon’s Rebellion and several other outlets around the state. The suggestion was later made that I may salvage this confirmation by appealing to House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith and to Speaker Bill Howell. This I declined to do. In an effort to spare Gov. Warner any heartburn or embarassment, I did express to his office a willingness for my name to be simply withdrawn. Governor Warner declined. The vote at committee level was scheduled for today, but was postponed until tomorrow. I don’t know what will happen. I am the first to admit, to even insist, that House members have every right to deny this confirmation. This is hardball politics, a game wherein no quarter is given, and none asked, something of a cross between bear-baiting and hockey without the helmets. I have dished it out enough. I sure as hell can take it. I even admire the straight-faced glee with which some of them play it. Despite our wonderful divergence of views from time to time, I hold each of you in the very highest personal regard, count myself lucky and privileged to be your colleague, and would in no way ever intentionally bring dishonor to you–by association–or otherwise.

Ever wonder why there is not enough affordable housing in functional locations? (At S/PI we call this housing “affordable and accessible.”) For an important part of the answer look no farther that the federal subsidy for the very rich.

According to the bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation the federal direct subsidy to homeowners is now $116 billion per year. That is up from the $100 billion that we estimated at the time The Shape of the Future was completed. We noted in 2000 that the vast majority of the subsidy goes to those at the top of the economic food chain.

There has been no change in the last half-decade. The top ½ of 1 percent of those filing for federal housing subsidy receive 22% of the benefit. At the bottom, 10% of the tax payers get only 4% of the benefit. Those are the ones that need help. So do most of the 30% of the households who do not own a house and so do not qualify for any meaningful subsidy.

According to columnist Kenneth R. Harney, the current administration has taken these subsides “off the table” for code writers who are trying to “streamline” of the IRS code. The 2006 “more-money-for-Iraq” budget removes those wasteful subsides of the less well to do such as the dismantled “community” programs.

Like the indirect subsidies from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and others, the direct tax subsidies on shelter go, by-in-large, to support houses that are the wrong size and in the wrong location. (“Affordable But No Bargain,” 15 June 2001 and “The Housing Dilemma,” 14 July 2003 at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com )

The Senate Committee on Privileges and Elections defeated SB1072, a bill proposed by Sen. Ken Cuccinelli. It called for a voter referendum on the question “Shall the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors be prohibited from committing or appropriating County revenues and funds to the Dulles Corridor Rapid Transit Project?” (AKA Rail to Dulles)

Many have called Rail-to-Dulles a boondoggle. (See my Dec. 2003 column “The Rail-to-Dulles Scam.”) It’s no wonder that most politicians don’t want the voters to have a choice on whether to fund this project or not. Were the truth about this scheme to bilk billions from an unsuspecting public to come out, the voters would certainly defeat it–if only they were given a chance to vote.

In the meantime the conniving continues. The next step to promoting this scheme is to raise the tolls on the Dulles Toll Road. Commuters on the Toll Road will have the privilege of paying 70% higher tolls if the Commonwealth Transportation Board has its way—tolls that will be diverted from the Toll Road to line up the pockets of the big money contributors of the legislators that are supporting this boondoggle.

Callahan and Chichester signaled Sunday a new, revisionist $63 billion state budget in the near-making that will spend most of a billion dollar surplus on one-time items and give Virginia Governor Mark Warner a second consecutive high-profile legislative victory as his tenure draws to a close. Says the Associated Press of the House and Senate versions: “…both plans are fundamentally similar to the Budget Gov. Mark Warner introduced in December in that they largely avoid programs that obligate the state to pay for them year after year.” The two positions will undergo relative minor ‘cut and paste’ fit revisions over the next two weeks. Final negotiations will produce identical documents by adjournment, scheduled for Feb. 26. Warner won’t win in all the details–he’ll be nicked here and there in some of the line items–but despite some spin to the contrary, particularly on the House side, look for most impartial observers to call it a major victory for the governor, even as details emerge. Among them: Food tax cut (you can forget that car tax thing); big block of the surplus into one-time transportation items; raises for state employees. Side bet: message morphing will be: “We’re not going to raise taxes!” (Just a tad different from ‘We’re going to cut your taxes.’)

“Experts” say that by 2030 there will be 2,000,000 more people, 833,000 new households (dwellings) and 1,600,000 additional jobs in the inner portions of what the US Bureau of the Census calls the “Washington Metropolitan Area.” This area is larger than the Washington Council of Governments membership area and smaller than the National Capital Subregion. A large percentage of these jobs and houses will be in the Virginia portion of the Subregion. Based on the track record of the process used to create these estimates, the numbers are probably as good a prediction one will find.

Where and how these new land uses will agglomerate is of critical economic, social and physical concern. This is an issue that business and environmental interests have been attempting to get governance practitioners to focus on for the last decade. The Smart Growth Alliance, spearheaded by the Washington Chapter of the Urban Land Institute, has been working to get as many stakeholders as possible under one tent to discuss this issue for several years. Their efforts culminated last Tuesday in an event called “Reality Check” at the Ronald Reagan Building.

The Washington Post lead story in the 3 February Metro section “Building Strategies To Map Out Growth” profiles the “Reality Check” session without providing many details or graphics. One can get an idea of what went on from the article but nothing past the usual he-said/she-said reporting.

Gerald Connolly, Chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors was searching for a quotable statement and came up with this: “This event is called ‘Reality Check,’ but I think we checked reality at the door.” Cute words and he is half right: “Reality” was checked at the door by the politicians and governance practitioners but it was ON THE WAY OUT AFTER THE SESSION. “Reality” is defined by the maps that the 300 participants adorned with yellow and blue Lego blocks.

There have been two major landmarks of the “regional” allocation of jobs/housing/services/recreation/amenity (aka, human settlement pattern) over the past 220 years; the L’Enfant Plan of 1791 and the Plan for the National Capital of 1960.

The Plan for the National Capital (including the sketches that accompanied the famous six-armed starfish diagram) plus the 60s regional and subregional spinoffs (collectively known as “Wedges and Corridors”) are the closest the National Capital Subregion has come to a “regional plan” in the past 100 years. The “Reality Check” sketches are a fair reflection of the of 21st century reality based on the intent of the Plan for the National Capital.

The Reality Check maps reflect market reality:

o Where jobs are being located at this time as documented by the Activity Centers effort of the Washington Council of Governments and the data on new building construction and building value published by the Washington Post. (See “Where the Jobs Are,” 24 May 2004 at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com)

o The patterns and location where citizens are willing to pay a premium to live and seek services. (See “Wild Abandonment,” 8 September 2004 and “Five Critical Realities That Shape the Future,” 15 December 2003 also at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com)

The reason these semi-subregional maps reflect reality is that they demonstrate the vast oversupply of land for new urban land uses if these uses are distributed in the patterns that the market documents most citizens desire. These are functional and sustainable patterns and densities at the Alpha Community scale.

The primary elements of “unreality” in these maps is that they do not show:

o Where some land speculators and developers can make the most money in the shortest period of time by scattering urban land uses, especially urban housing in dysfunctional locations

o Where politicians and governance practitioners will continue to allow the agglomeration of dysfunctional human settlement patterns unless there is Fundamental Change

Without the citizen education needed to support the fair allocation of location variable costs, Connolly is right, not about “reality” but about the prospect of the continuing agglomeration of economic, social and physical dysfunction.

EMR

Former Senator Chuck Robb hasn’t been heard from lately. Parade magazine reminds us today that he’s a co-chair of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. They will report on March 31. I suspect Rob will speak out after that date, although much of the Committee’s report will be classified.

Virginia is blessed to have so many respected foreign policy and security policy public servants, past and present.

The Washington Post reported today the passage of Del. Albo’s, R-Fairfax, bill (HB 1564) to impose new fines on speeders and reckless drivers. (“VA Delegates Add Fines for Driving Errors.”)

Actually, it appears that the Post has it wrong, It’s HB 1563 that was voted out of the appropriations committee. This bill was sponsored by Del. Tom Rust, R-Herndon, and it’s very similar to the original Albo bill which was rolled into the Rust bill.

Both Albo and Rust are saying that this Bill will raise more than $100 million annually, money that is desperately needed for transportation improvements. (This bill is part of Speaker Bill Howell’s, R-Fredericksburg, bigger plan to raise money for transportation improvements.)

Yet the Impact Statement filed by VDOT estimated that at best the Albo tax would raise $24 million. Obviously, Rust’s version is more onerous on drivers, because VDOT estimates that Rust’s bill could raise between $67 and $72 million annually—still way short of the original predictions.

Let’s make no mistake about this. This is a bad piece of legislation! (See: Why Not a Ticket for Tax Abuse?). This is also a regressive tax that will hurt minorities and the poor who can least afford to pay such penalties. Is the GOP in Virginia really trying to build new highways on the backs of the poor?

With as much political substance as splooge — that creamy white stuff inside a Twinkie — my favorite state Senator, Emmett “Taximaximus” Hanger, has backed off his legislation to stop negotiations between VDOT and STAR Solutions to expand I-81. He presented the bill to the subcommittee, but chose not to put it to a vote.



Hanger said, “Sometimes you can accomplish more in Richmond if you don’t force your hand.”



Other notable Hangeroos:

~ “What I wanted to do is start a dialogue.”

~ “It’s like catching a fast train. You don’t catch it right away, first you slow it down.”

~ “Obviously, we started a conversation.”



Poppycock! Mr. Do-Nothing been singing the same old, tired tune about changing the state song for nine years.



What’s the real deal with Hanger’s withdrawal of the anti-Haliburton controlled Star Solution legislation, perhaps, a cushy 2008 White House appointment in the makings?



Conceivably, Emmett Hanger appointed as U.S. Secretary of Paradoxical Fees and Regulations … and his taxing buddy, Russ Potts, appointed as the Head of the Federal Bureau of Ex-Sports Announcers.



Hmm … It’s fourth and long for Shenandoah Valley residents.

After 40 years of relentless culling, I’ve accumulated a very modest libary of ‘keeper’ books. Few, if any of them, have any intrinsic value, being mostly bought on the cheap–some for pennies. But I’ve never catalogued, or even sorted them in any way, until today. My report: 403 works of literature (some multiple copies); 126 science/practical/culinary; 107 history; 61 reference; 39 biographies and 22 philosophy/religion. Dead last on my shelves? Politics–at 16 volumes. Go figure.

Says John Behan at www.vaconservative.com: “Allen pushes Senate peers for apology over lynchings.” This is an interesting article. Says Behan: “Three days into Black History Month,U. S. Sen. George F. Allen of Virginia renewed efforts Thursday to have the Senate formally aplolgize for its failure to move against a wave of lynchings that swept the South and much of the rest of the country from the 1880s until the 1960s.”

That seems reasonable enough. But read the fine print. Read the comments on this one.

From ‘Anonymous’: Wonder if Sen. Allen will publicly repudiate the Confederate Nathan Bedford Forrest, one of his heroes, his son’s namesake, and founder of the Klan?”

As in THE Klan? Well, I looked it up. Sure enough, the Confederate cavalry officer did, in fact, found THE Klan. In fairness, though, apparently he repudiated it not long afterwards. He was a whiz-bang horse officer, though. Doesn’t seem to be any debate about that.

From: “The Jaded JD”: “Not a surprising move from a United States Senator positioning himself for a run for the presidency in 2008. I wonder whether the effort will work for those of us who remember the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s front-page article by Jeff Schapiro on November 1, 2000, entitled “Allen Lambasted About Civil Rights.”

From ‘NovaKev72’: “Allen is in full CYA mode. I think the biggest obstacle for Allen should be the outrageous Confederate History Month proclamation he made during office. He went well beyond any bromides about “honoring heritage” into basically connecting his supposed fight against the federal government with the CSA’s.”

My advice? Senator Allen needs to get himself a good horse. It’s going to take a good one to put the distance he’s going to need between the Stars and Bars and where he needs to be.

I tried to engage the Blue Dog, Steven Sisson, after his Bacon’s Rebellion column on campaign contributions, but the dog wasn’t hunting just then. I’m going to try again.

Howard Dean is poised to become the face of the Democratic Party. Two major political observers, Mickey Kaus and David Brooks, are seeing a connection between Democratic positioning on the issues and the fundraising Dean pioneered. As Brooks explains,

Many Republicans are mystified as to why the Democrats, having lost another election, are about to name Howard Dean as party chairman and have allowed Barbara Boxer and Ted Kennedy to emerge unchallenged as the loudest foreign policy voices.

The answer, as Mickey Kaus observes in Slate, is that the party is following the money. The energy and the dough are in the MoveOn.org wing, which is not even a wing of the party, but the head and the wallet. Only the most passionate and liberal voices can stir up this network of online donors from the educated class.

My question to the Blue Dog is how Tim Kaine maintains his “centrist” credentials in the 2005 gubernatorial race when he’s getting so much money from a Democratic Party financed on the left? If he disavows the liberal wing that controls the purse strings, does he risk alienating them?

Bark at me, Blue Dog.

With no web presence, publications like the Richmond Free Press are rarely acknowledged in the blogosphere. The RFP serves the African-American community in the City of Richmond.

In the latest edition, staff writer Jeremy M. Lazarus reports that the Legislative Black Caucus celebrated killing a bill that would have merged the Department of Minority Business Enterprise (DMBE) with the Department of Business Assistance (DBA). Del. Dwight Jones (D-Richmond), chair of the caucus, said killing the bill had been their “main objective” in an effort to, according to Lazarus, “promote economic justice for black businesses.”

I believe any neutral management consultant worth his or her salt would recommend a merger of the two organizations. There is considerable duplication of effort and DBA is strong in one area–financial controls–where DMBE has consistently had problems. There would be service benefits to business clients, too. Nonetheless, the symbolism of having their “own” agency and support from Governor Warner for maintaining DMBE’s “independence” apparently overcame any efficiency and service argument.

Another article, this one by staff writer Skeeter Faulk, describes Sen. George Allen’s commitment to naming the new Federal courthouse in downtown Richmond for Spottswood W. Robinson III, a noted NAACP lawyer and federal judge. Robinson worked with Thurgood Marshall on Brown v. Board of Education. Faulk finds the nomination a “surprise” in light of Allen’s past, when he “embraced and glorified the Confederate flag and its sympathizers.” Faulk chalks the naming up to Allen’s presidential ambitions.

It’s tough to be a Republican when it comes to the African-American community. Do nothing and you confirm their worst suspicions; do something and it arouses a different kind of suspicion.