Bacon's Rebellion

This quote comes from The Washington Post’s round-up on the primaries:

“The races are somewhat a test case of how viable this anti-tax movement can be,” said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University and co-editor of “The New Politics of the Old South: An Introduction to Southern Politics.” “If we judge them by the criterion of winning primaries, we ultimately may judge them failures after tonight. If the criterion is their ability to foster debate and send a signal to incumbents, they might be considered successful.”

Did the low-tax movement foster debate? Did the challengers send a signal to incumbents? I fear not. My sense is that the pro-tax forces in the General Assembly will feel emboldened to push more aggressively for transportation-related taxes in 2006 with little fear of a voter backlash.

So much for the anti-tax revolt. Actually, it wasn’t even a revolt — it was more of a listless disorder, easily quelled. Voters, clearly, were not fired up about the issue. Turn-out was incredibly low. Only one of six challengers campaigning under the anti-tax banner, Chris Craddock, defeated an incumbent, Del. Gary Reese, R-Fairfax. George Fitch, always a long shot, garnered only 17.5 percent of the vote in his run against Jerry Kilgore.

There were morcels of consolation for those of us who believe that a low/moderate tax structure and efficient, high-performance government is a prerequisite for Virginia’s long term economic competitiveness and prosperity.

1. Craddock did win. His position on taxes: “Tax hikes are always budget cuts for families. They stifle our economy, make our businesses less competitive, and encourage wasteful government spending. Virginia must first eliminate government waste, which the Wilder Commission estimates at over $1.2 billion. ” (Unfortunately, young Craddock has a lot to learn when it comes to applying his anti-tax philosophy to improving Virginia’s transportation system. His proposals simply entail raising funds from arcane sources to plow into Business As Usual programs.)
2. Challenger Steve Chapman polled well. Despite bad publicity entailing traffic tickets, his dead dog and allegedly illegal voter registration in the district, Chapman won 45.2 percent of the vote against Del. Harry Parrish, R-Manassas. Parrish is 83 years old. If Chapman gets his personal act together, he might have a good shot at unseating the aging incumbent in two years.
3. Challenger Shaun Kenney registered 44.7 percent of the vote against incumbent Robert Orrock, R-Spotsylvania. That’s a very respectable tally, considering Kenney’s youth, political inexperience and disadvantage in fund raising. Kenney may well have a future in Virginia politics if he sticks to it.
4. George Fitch won only 17.5 percent of the vote, but it’s not as if he were running against a pro-tax hike candidate. Kilgore has often stressed his opposition, in the abstract, to higher taxes. He just doesn’t come across as very strong or empassioned on the issue.

Now it’s time for the low-tax movement to shift gears. We simply have to do a better job of articulating our case: Lower taxes preserve the middle class’ standard of living, they are good for economic growth, and there are abundant opportunities to cut state spending while preserving core state programs.

The latest warning comes from the “State of the Nation’s Housing 2005” report released Monday by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, as reported by SmartMoney.com. The bubble in prices is most acute in California, southern Florida and New York, the article says, but graphic information in the article indicates that the surge in housing costs in Washington, D.C. is comparable to those in New York (as measured by the dollar increases in monthly mortgage payments in 2003 to 2004).

A big problem, notes the report, “is the disparity between the residential home and rental markets. The after tax cost of owning now exceeds the cost of renting a comparable home by 28% nationally, and by much more in certain areas of the country, according to the report. In 2003, it cost 23% more to own than rent a comparable home.”

There are solid fundamentals underpinning the market in metro Washington, including strong job and income growth. But bubbles always start where the fundamentals are sound, and then escalate beyond all reason. Local governments across Northern Virginia had better batten down the hatches. The storm is coming.

I strolled into the Tuckahoe Elementary School in Henrico County around 9:15 a.m. to exercise the mother of all civic rights and vote. There were no lines. Voting took about two minutes. One poll attendant said that only 120 people had voted so far, compared to 500 or more during the presidential election at the same point in time. The turn-out, it appears, will be as light as the experts have been predicting. The winners in the hotly contested primaries will be not be those who garner wide support but those who motivate a loyal core of supporters.

One thing I learned a long time ago, however, was never to predict the outcome of elections, so you’ll see no such forecasts from me.

Once again we find that tax revenues are surging in Virginia. A front-page graphic in The Wall Street Journal this morning notes that Virginia revenues so far are running 14.9 percent ahead of last year — exceeding the national average of 9.5 percent by a hefty margin. That amounts to 9.03 billion for the first three quarters of the fiscal year.

Actually, the WSJ’s numbers, based on only nine months of results, are a tad low. Says Finance Secretary John Bennett in his latest revenue report, based on 11 months: “Through May, revenues have grown 15.2 percent above the same period last year — substantially ahead of the forecast of 10.3 percent.”

Readers may recall the justification for raising taxes. Gov. Warner and his allies in the state senate warned of a long-term “structural” budget deficit in state finances. Now we’re facing the opposite problem, a long-term “structural” surplus. Last year the General Assembly found ways to spend nearly all of that surplus. The one saving grace was that legislators devoted most of the money to one-time uses that would not add to the state’s programmatic overhead. It will be interesting to see if they can resist the temptation in 2006, when the surplus recurs–bigger than ever–to crank up the spending machine.

The massive surplus is an embarrassment to Virginia’s political class, which would prefer to sweep it under the rug. But voters (those few who bother to go to the polls) should remember the budget surplus when they cast their ballots. The citizenry needs to chastise incumbents who panicked in 2004 and voted for a tax increase that many warned then was not needed, and, in retrospect, is even more clearly not needed now.

Margarett Edds, senior political writer for the Virginian-Pilot, can’t seem to understand the fuss about state and local taxes. In her column (requires registration) this morning, she writes:

Scan the political ads now clogging the airwaves, and you’d swear Virginians care about one thing: low taxes. Channel flipping during one segment of the nightly news last week, I caught barely a mention of education. The environment? Nary a word. Ditto for transportation and rising health care costs. But in the advertising run-up to Tuesday’s nominating primaries for statewide offices and the House of Delegates, the “T” word was everywhere.

… Good government means finding the right balance between taxes and services. It doesn’t take more than a half-hour before the television set to know that with the present crop of Virginia candidates, the emphasis is out of whack.

Imagine that. Virginians like keeping the money they earn. Selfish bastards. Where could such stinginess come from? Could it stem from the $1.4 billion in tax increases in the current biennial budget? Could it rise from the relentlessly rising property taxes that homeowners are paying across most of the Commonwealth? Could it reflect the fact that grandees from Senate Finance Chair John Chichester to Virginian-Pilot columnists are lecturing Virginians that they still aren’t paying enough taxes in a push for $1 billion-a-year (or more) tax increase for transportation funding in 2006?

Edds thinks there’s a problem when politicians “overemphasize low taxes.” I’d give her point of view a bit more credence if she occasionally wrote about strategies for taking the costs out of government — not cutting programs, but squeezing costs through process reforms, land use reforms, re-engineering, restructuring, whatever. But I don’t see much of that. It takes an effort to identify ways to cut spending and make programs run more efficiently. Any pea brain can raise taxes.

Today’s issue of The Washington Post has stories and graphics in three places about rebuilding the Woodrow Wilson Bridge.

The heroic quotes, striking photos and detailed graphics are very 21st century. A reading of Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond calls to mind a different perspective. One wonders if the same exhilaration and sense of purpose was not felt by those carving the moai on Easter Island, building the Mayan temples at Tikal or erecting the statue of Ozymandias memorialized by Percy Bysshe Shelly.

After all, few believe that rebuilding the Wilson Bridge or any other transport facility without Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns will make regional traffic congestion any less onerous in 2011, 2015 or 2050. See “Self Delusion and Fraud,” 7 June 2005 at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com

EMR

Monday, June 13th, Governor Mark Mollycoddle will speak at the Communities in Schools of Virginia, Education Policy Luncheon at the Richmond Marriot. The theme of the luncheon is “Ten years into the SOLs, where does Virginia go from here?”

Question is, will the Governor report to the media that Virginia gets barely a passing grade? The Washington Post described a ‘Standards of Learning’ report card in which Virginia gets a D+.

A Report Card With Rare Meaning

That’s not a passing grade for His Excellency, and an uninspiring presidential candidate… Unless, the D+ stands for Howard DEAN, Monica DIXON or Mollycoddle DECEPTION plus.

Parents Across Virginia United to Reform SOLs, recently wrote: “… Essentially, the report card compares the state’s testing results with NAEP results. The further apart those results fall, the lower the grade. For example, in VA, we reported that 70% of our 8th graders were proficient in reading (i.e., they passed the 8th grade reading SOL test). NAEP, a nationally administered test, reported that only 36% of Virginia 8th graders were proficient readers. Additionally, NAEP reports 31% of our 8th graders are proficient in math while Virginia reports that 78% are proficient. While some folks suggest that the NAEP proficiency levels (and the Virginia SOL levels, for that matter) are off base, I think it is pretty apparent that the rising SOL pass rates are not mirrored on the NAEP results, especially reading results. Math results are a little more unclear. While NAEP math results show gains for Virginia (and the nation), they also show that Virginia has excluded higher and higher numbers of kids from NAEP testing and now has one of the highest levels of exclusion (about 10%) in the nation. Excluding students who may test poorly can boost results.

Keep in mind that this report card does not look at actual proficiency rates, only how the proficiency rates on one set of tests (NAEP) compares to another set of tests (SOLs). Of course, we’ve been keeping you informed for several years about how results on SOLs compares to results on other measures. I’ll be updating the website soon on the achievement effects of the SOLs. Suffice it to say that we don’t think other measures of achievement mirror the (adjusted and tweaked) gains on the SOL pass rates.”

NAEP results at http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/states

For more information about PAVURSOL, visit: http://www.solreform.com/

~ the blue dog

Now we know why Sean Connaughton would not sign the Taxpayers Protection Pledge. The Washington Post let the cat out of the bag:

‘…he is honest and pragmatic enough to consider all options, including the possibility of new tax revenue. “I don’t rule out anything,” says Mr. Connaughton…’

What’s rather strange is this observation from the Washington Post:

‘Mr. Connaughton is a member of that increasingly rare breed: a moderate Republican in Virginia.’

Obviously form the Post’s perspective, a tax-and-spend liberal is a moderate Republican. So there should be little doubt left as to Connaughton’s real position on taxes–he is pro-tax!

But what’s odd is the Post’s conclusion that moderates are an increasingly rare breed in Virginia. Obviously the post hasn’t counted the office holders in the Virginia State Senate recently; by my count there are 18 RINOs to 6 conservative Republican Senators. That’s a three to one split in favor of the RINOs! Moderate Republicans are the majority, so what “rare breed” is the Post talking about?

But then again, the Post is not always focused on reporting the facts. Rather they prefer focusing on dishing out their liberal spin…

The Virginia Manufacturers Association doesn’t endorse political candidates, although you might overlook that fact in the glowing press release just issued regarding LC candidate Del. Bob McDonnell, R-Virginia Beach.

A new survey of candidates for Virginia attorney general reveals that Republican Delegate Bob McDonnell strongly supports reform of the Commonwealth’s legal climate, lower taxes and less burdensome regulation to promote prosperity in Virginia. Steve Baril, a trial attorney who squares off with McDonnell in the June 14 primary, failed to complete the Virginia Manufacturers Association (VMA) survey and repeated calls to his campaign were not returned. …

“Bob McDonnell could not have been clearer about his pro-reform, pro-business views,” said Brett Vassey, VMA president. “On issues of civil justice, medical malpractice and product liability, and his perspective on the job of attorney general, McDonnell’s positions are the right ones for Virginia’s economy and our quality of life.”

“McDonnell’s responses also illustrate that he doesn’t just talk the talk, he walks the walk,” Vassey added. “He detailed his specific and spirited leadership on medical malpractice reform and to stop the odious practice of venue shopping by trial attorneys.”

“The survey demonstrates to Republican primary voters next Tuesday that Bob McDonnell is rock-solid on core issues affecting whether the Commonwealth prospers or withers. On the other hand, Steve Baril’s non-response to our survey can leave only question marks in the minds of primary voters.”

Lesson to Baril campaign: Don’t misplace those questionnaires! These issues resonate with me far more than the effluvia emanating from both campaign headquarters.

Doug Koelemay’s VITA column Monday stimulated another reader to write. This comes from a VITA employee who provided me his name, but asked me not to publish it for fear of retribution. Says the state employee:

Make no mistake about it, VITA is solely interested in empire and Warner-legacy building, not in customer service or saving the taxpayers of this state money. The vast majority of the agencies are now being driven by VITA, not by their constituents’ needs. We are constantly being forced to submit to their audits and surveys. We are paying huge fees for services that prior to their existence cost us nothing more than the salaries we were already paying. VITA is a train wreck waiting to happen and Governor Warner will be lucky to be out of office before the train derails. The only hope the taxpayers of Virginia have is that JLARC steps in and prevents this disaster. However, seeing as how the Republican leadership in the General Assembly sold out to Mark Warner, I don’t hold out much hope.

I can go on and on with examples of how VITA has been improperly managed and launched, but I am a mere grunt worker in their eyes. I’ve been repeatedly told that I don’t understand the top-down perspective. I guess I’ll just keep walking back and forth to VITA headquarters every other day to reboot my servers that no longer operate with the efficiency they did prior to our server move. Rest assured that Warner’s only legacy in my mind will be the frustration I experience every couple of months when I have to replace my shoes.

I have no idea whether or not this correspondent has a reasonable beef or not. But it’s clear that a number of people in VITA have yet to see the logic.

In this week’s column, “Re-VITA-lyzing Government,” Doug Koelemay makes the argument that VITA is living up to its goals of transforming the delivery of information-technology services to state agencies, providing better citizen service, new economic development opportunities and more cost savings for localities. Wrote Koelemay: “VITA was never to be about saving money by spending less. It has been about improving service delivery and avoiding wasteful, redundant spending.”

One reader responds, “Koelemay’s column is a spoof, right? ‘VITA was never to be about saving money by spending less. It has been about improving service delivery and avoiding wasteful, redundant spending.’ Migawd. And I’d thought the original sales pitch for VITA was in large part to lower costs.

see, e.g., § 2.2-2023. “Virginia Technology Infrastructure Fund created; contributions. … B. The Fund shall consist of: (i) the transfer of general and nongeneral fund appropriations from state agencies which represent savings that accrue from reductions in the cost of information technology and communication services, (ii) the transfer of general and nongeneral fund appropriations from state agencies which represent savings from the implementation of information technology enterprise projects. … The Auditor of Public Accounts shall certify the amount of any savings identified by the CIO. …

Is VITA delivering value, as Koelemay says, or is it falling short of its stated aims, as our anonymous correspondent, a local planning official, suggests?

Jim Bacon’s post on the “family farm” made a number of good points. The responses raise a lot more good observations, especially the spacial relationship between raising and consuming food.

In the discussion of extensive (nonurban) land uses it is important to keep in mind that it is economically, socially and physically important that the Urbanside be compact without regard to what nonurban land uses are found in the Countryside.

The Urbanside is most efficient and most effectively serves the market for functional urban land uses if it occupies about 5 percent of the land area in the United States. (The number varies from region to region and from continent to continent.) Scatteration of urban land uses beyond that amount of urban land diminishes the functionality of human settlement patterns in the Urbanside.

Therefore, devoting 95 percent of the land area to nonurban (aka, Countryside) uses is a good idea without regard to what those uses are. We will be documenting this in The Shape Warrenton-Fauquier’s Future.

The support (or subsidies) for family farms, multifamily farms, corporate farms owned by a family or an enterprise, family tree farms or cyanide heap-leach gold mining, etc., etc., depend on the utility/impact of the product (raising healthy, tastier vegetables, sugar beets, tobacco or whatever) and how it is done (e.g. spreading chicken manure in DelMarVa).

EMR

The Virginia Club for Growth PAC issued a Press Release today on the “Big RINO Lie.”

RINO (Republican In Name Only) Delegates that voted for the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia last year are again promoting falsehoods in their coordinated defense regarding their vote against hard-working Virginia families.

The mantra being repeated by the RINO incumbents–including some of the State House and Senate leaders supporting them–has been that their vote was courageous and was needed to avoid a government shutdown. Nothing can be further from the truth. This is another flagrant example of RINO politicians speaking from both sides of their mouths.

You see, Sen. Jay O’Brien (R-Fairfax), had already sponsored a bill (SB 5004) during the extended legislative session in 2004, that would have continued operating the State Government at the prior year’s funding level (similar to a continuing budget resolution at the federal level). This bill was also co-sponsored by Senators Bill Bolling (R-Mechanicsville) and Ken Cuccinelli (R-Centreville).

The Senate Finance Committee did NOT kill the bill–they sat on it, just in case they needed it. Thus, the RINO malarkey that they did the honorable thing because shutting down the government would have cost $100 million just doesn’t fly–there was already a bill in place to address that potentiality.

This orchestrated excuse is another example of the duplicitous and dishonest campaigns waged by RINOs, who campaign as fiscal conservatives, but govern as Ted Kennedy liberals. Politicians should be held accountable and not allowed to hoodwink the voters by spewing out half-truths, lies, and falsehoods.

Michael Graham on WMAL (AM630 — the ABC affiliate in the Washington, DC area whose signal reaches all of Nortern Virginia) is carrying on a RINO Hunt. He’s targeting three NOVA legislators, namely, Gary Reese, Joe May, and Harry Parrish. Apparently, he plans on carrying this theme through June 14!

Graham interviewed Reese, May, and Parrish on Tuesday, May 31, 2005. He also followed up with an interview of yours truly, on the following day. The audio clips of all four interviews can be heard on the VA Club for Growth website.

Graham had an online poll on his website last Friday. The question asked was: “RINO Hunt – Divisive or About Time”. 83% of the respondents answered “Yes, it’s about time!” (See below.) Obviously, this is not a statistically valid poll and it doesn’t even say how many people voted. Nonetheless, it shows a trend, which is also validated by the many callers into Graham’s show–the majority of the callers are speaking out against the RINOs.