Bacon's Rebellion

Gov. Mark Warner took a bad spill on a bicycle ride near Lexington Tuesday, breaking his hand in two places. An Associated Press photo in the Richmond Times-Dispatch showed him, talking to the press, with what appeared to be a heavily bandaged hand and a neck brace. His good spirits under such adverse circumstances undoubtedly plays a role in his popularity as governor. The accompanying story doesn’t quote him, but I can just imagine him waving off the incident with self-deprecating humor. You just can’t help but like a guy who bounces back like that.

The Virginia House of Delegate 2005 Election web blog is morphing into a three-ring political circus with the latest celebrity post by ‘not jim gilmore’…

Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

‘not jim gilmore’ wrote: “That’s 41 Pro-Virginia, 35 Anti-Virginia and 3 fingers in the wind. With 21 seats left, everyone needs to be very aware that we have not won this election yet.”

Blue Dog question of the day: Is that a one-finger salute?

Earlier this week, celebrity bloggers, Dem House of Delegate candidate David Englin and ‘Pub anti-tax Senator Ken Cuccenilli, both back off early commitments. The Blue Dog’s congressional source, ‘Dry Throat,’ alerted me to candidate David Englin and wife blogflogging ‘not larry sabato’ — Apparently, ‘NLS’ fibbed about these celebrity bloggers…

Who are the web log anonymous posters — ‘not larry sabato’ AND ‘not jim gilmore’? Any thoughts, or comments?

The Blue Dog’s best guess for the anonymous bloggers…

Probable identity of ‘not larry sabato’: Washington Post writers and Warner sycophant twins, Michael Shear and Chris Jenkins… Or RT-D columnist Jeff ‘good copy’ Schapiro (But if we take him at his word, NLS says he resides in Chesterfield County).

Probable identity of ‘not jim gilmore’: Delegate Gary Reese.

The Blue Dog’s favorite ‘Pub buddy Red Dog (who serves in the GA House) wrote: “Delegate Reese is not that computer kind of guy so he is not larry sabato. His style is more Shear than Schapiro…NLS is more like a real reporter. Not jim gilmore IS probably preston bryant.”

But CC guest blogger, Norm ‘one mans trash’ Leahy wrote: “Not Jim Gilmore, I believe, is Preston Bryant,” but posted that it could be the ‘Pub court jester, Russ Potts.

Commonwealth Conservative » I’m Anti-Virginia, How ‘Bout You?

Another fellow Bacon’ Bits blogger wrote, “It seems like Not Larry Sabato has gone from premier political prognosticator to rumor monger central in one week. Don’t quite understand ….”

On the identity of ‘not jim gilmore’, he wrote: “I have no clue. I think all this has taken anonymous posting too far and is giving blogging a bad name.”

The real question is this: What’s the real identity of CC’s John Behan?

~ the blue dog

Gov. Warner’s idea of cross-enrolling high school students, particularly those suffering “senioritis,” in community college courses is a great initiative. Students get challenged with a taste of the “next level” and earn college credits they can hopefully apply to their four year college.

Another idea using the community college system comes from Glenn DuBois, chancellor of the Virginia Community College system. According to this Gary Robertson story in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, DuBois hopes to counter rising demand on enrollment at Virginia’s public universities by incentivizing more students to start at community colleges and transfer:

Under the proposal, which he has circulated to legislators, community college graduates with a grade-point average of B or better would pay the community college tuition rate at the four-year public institutions to which they transfer.

In addition, the four-year institution would receive $1,000 per transfer student. DuBois has estimated that the program would cost the state about $4 million annually.

Savings to the state would come from the estimated $4,500 he says the state will save for every full-time Virginia student who begins his or her education at a community college.

“The lowest cost to a baccalaureate degree is the community college on-ramp,” DuBois said. “It’s the lowest cost for Virginia families. It’s the lowest cost for the state.”

I don’t know if DuBois’ payout numbers are accurate and defensible, but it’s the kind of thinking needed to confront expected shortfalls in capacity:

The increase of students trying to enter college is tied to record school-age enrollments. In the past five years alone, the state’s number of high school graduates has risen 11 percent.

In 1999-2000, there were 67,458 graduates statewide. By 2003-2004, the number had jumped to 75,101. Numbers for the most recent class of graduates are not yet available, according to the Virginia Department of Education.

There are several problems with DuBois’ idea, not the least of which is that he’s got a vested interest in enlarging his community college portfolio. That aside, there are already shortages of community college slots for certain curricula, such as nursing. Is the faculty infrastructure up to his plan? There’s a marketing issue. The State Council for Higher Education in Virginia (SCHEV) turned thumbs-down to a proposal to build a four year college in Southside because it didn’t believe students would matriculate there. Going to community college will not be nearly as glamorous as going away to school–is this financial carrot enough to overcome the intial disappointment of not being able to live in a dorm?

It’s certainly an idea worth pursuing. Maybe community colleges can do more to seem like a college community in Blacksburg, Fredericksburg, or Farmville. If just the type of students who drop out in their first two years of a four year college for maturity reasons took up the DuBois plan, it might be worth it.

Norm Leahy calls Jeff Schapiro’s Richmond Times-Dispatch column this morning “eye-glazing.” It’s all about Joan S. Dent, retiring executive director of the Virginia Governmental Employees Association (VGEA).

Maybe, because I’m a state employee myself, I actually found it interesting, especially reading between the lines.

First of all, out of 112,000 state employees, only 18,000 are members of the organization “that lobbies the General Assembly and executive branch on behalf of state workers.”

Second, salary seems to be the only issue for Ms. Dent.

Third, and perhaps most important, kind words from Ms. Dent only seem to go toward Democratic governors.

Two and three contribute mightily to number one, in my estimation, and that’s one big problem with the VGEA.

Sometime in the coming months gubernatorial candidates will address state employee “issues” in a bid to woo the state workforce’s votes. When I get back from vacation, I’m going to make some suggestions about what the candidates should offer taxpayers and state employees. Hint: salary isn’t at the top of list.

In a post yesterday morning, I questioned whether the Daily Press was engaging in a little revisionist history in the way it portrayed the Moody’s credit watch on Virginia’s AAA bond rating. Perhaps, I suggested, the Moody’s warning to Gov. Warner and senior legislators was more ambiguous than subsequently portrayed in the 2004 tax-hike debate. Now comes Gordon C. Morse, a contributing editor at the Daily Press, with details that I find persuasive.

Morse e-mailed me as follows:

Jim, oddly enough, I actually do know what Moody’s said, because I asked. The Moody’s representative came down for the House Appropriations Committee retreat at Alumni Hall at William & Mary on Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2003. After her presentation, I asked her if she had some time, and we sat in one the conference rooms and discussed the process used by Moody’s at some length, but off the record. There was no ambiguity. None. Virginia was on Moody’s 90-day watch, which was subsequently extended because of the protracted debate of the 2004 legislative session. Moody’s reasons for this were not new. Barents Group, in a privately-financed analysis, had already reported in September, 1999 that “on a current services level, expenditures exceed revenues by about $0.7 billion in FY 2000 and by more than $1 billion by FY2008.” Barents also calculated for anticipated additional or “supplemental” spending for Medicaid and higher education and said that would run the state fiscal gap “to more than $3.5 billion by FY 2008.”

In early 2004, there were repeated meetings with Moody’s, with Warner himself intervening more than once to keep Moody’s from downgrading the state’s credit rating. None of this was reported, but I kept up with it by simply making inquiries. North Carolina went through the same thing and did in fact have its rating reduced to double-A, as I remember.

Bottom line: The Moody’s downgrade threat was real. Given thatGov. Warner was intent upon hiking state spending to bring K-12 schools up to the re-benchmarked Standards of Quality, it’s much easier to understand his decision to raise taxes. I’m not saying that I agree with the decision but it would be unfair to accuse Warner, as some did at the time, of exaggerrating the Moody’s threat.

One of these days, we’ll have to dig into that SOQ re-benchmarking process, but that’s another question for another day.

Here’s the complete Til Hazel passage from the Washington Post story on Tim Kaine’s transportation plan that Barnie posted on below:

John T. “Til” Hazel, a developer and frequent critic of both Kaine and Kilgore, said Kaine’s pledge to veto new transportation taxes is “political baloney.”

“That is such a nothing plan, it’s hard for me to even think or comment,” said Hazel, who is supporting Potts. “That’s as bad as Kilgore saying we are going to have a bunch of regional authorities. What . . . do you need a governor for if you are going to do that?”

Hazel’s comment leads me to ask what kind of governor he thinks Virginia needs.

Here’s how the Post summarizes the plan of his candidate:

Sen. H. Russell Potts (R-Winchester), who is running for governor as an independent, has said he will create a commission to develop solutions and call a special session to implement them.

There’s bold leadership from a governor! A “commission,” packed with Hazel-approved wise men and women, creating a plan not debated during the gubernatorial campaign. It could work! No bunch of pesky regional authorities to mollify, no doubting metropolitan planning organizations that might not buy into the plan handed down from the central “commission.”

Apparently, Til knows best, and it’s time we got a powerful governor who recognizes that.

Updaate: Norm Leahy offers this post with quotes from Til Hazel after the defeat of transportation referenda in 2002. If you can’t trust the people to do the right thing, entrust a commission.

Tim Kaine’s transportation plan represents a revolutionary break from platforms of previous gubernatorial candidates by insisting upon the coordination of transportation and land use planning. To read Jim Bacon’s positive report on a plan advanced by a Democrat (gasp!), view today’s post on the “Road to Ruin” website.

Said Til Hazel, a NOVA developer with political throw-weight, to the Washington Post upon hearing Kaine’s transportation roll-out Thursday: “That is such a nothing plan it’s hard for me to even think or comment.”

“DarkSyde,” a participant in the The Daily Kos blog, has a lot to say about Bristol-area teacher Larry Booher, who has been asked to put a halt to teaching creationism in high school biology class. Booher, a highly popular teacher, apparently, has been giving students the option to read the book, Creation Battles Evolution, a voluntary, extra credit assignment.

The Daily Kos item strikes me two ways. On the one hand, creationism is not science and should not be taught in a biology class, even as voluntary extra credit. If a student inquires about creationism, I suppose, it would be OK for Booher to suggest a book. But the book should not be a formal part of the curriculum.

(A quick aside to fundamentalist readers who are bound to take issue with me: Evolution is not “just a theory” — it’s a body of science that is so well integrated into other scientific disciplines, from geology to astronomy, molecular biology to genetics, that to describe it as “unproven” is to say that the entire edifice of 21st century science is unproven. That’s not to say there aren’t major unsolved questions regarding how evolution works — just as there are major unsolved questions in astrophysics. But those unsolved questions don’t begin to dismantle the larger body of knowledge confirming the reality of evolution.)

On the other hand, DarkSyde does hyperventilate about the meaning of the Bristol incident. Says the Kos: “This sort of blatant disregard of the Constitution indicates that we are indeed headed – if not into an overt theocracy right now – into a climate which makes theocratic abuses by government officials (like public high school biology teachers) seem reasonable to the majority of folks in our country.”

Get over it, DarkSyde! Mr. Booher has been teaching creationism for 15 years. Was America a theocracy 15 years ago? And, oh, by the way, he’s been told to stop teaching creationism. Secular humanists are extirpating expressions of religion from the public schools, even in culturally conservative areas like Bristol, a whole lot faster than the fundamentalists can inject it back in. Speaking as a Darwinist, and not a religious person at all, I see no signs of “theocracy” at all. You guys are totally hallucinating.

(Thanks to blogger Jesse Stark for pointing out this story.)

Tim Kaine has issued a detailed analysis of Virginia’s transportation crisis. Two key points emerge: He does not support higher taxes for transportation, although he would use surplus revenues for one-time transportation projects. He would give greater attention than any previous governor to tying transportation and land-use planning.

Read details and analysis on the “Road to Ruin” blog.

The first thing one must understand about the Supreme Court and human settlement pattern cases is that no matter how good or bad the initial press coverage makes the case seem, the facts turn out to be different.

The validity of the City of New London action and the court’s opinion depends on whether the municipality, representing the interests of all the citizens, has a well considered Comprehensive Plan that will result in functional human settlement patterns. If it does, these patterns will benefit the entire community and is a public purpose. If not, this taking will continue the agglomeration of dysfunction as so many urban renewal, highway and waterway projects have done in the past.

The second thing to recognize is that almost none of the outlandish things that are predicted to flow from a case like this ever happen. Read some of the gnashing of teeth and dire predictions that followed Euclid v. Ambler, Grand Central, etc.

Let us spend our energy on issues that will improve the life of all citizens like real property tax reform, improving mobility and access and providing affordable and accessible shelter.

EMR

There goes the neighborhood.

I wonder what our human settlement pattern folks will have to say about this decision.

Writing for the court, Justice John Paul Stevens said local officials, not federal judges, know best in deciding whether a development project will benefit the community.

Update Round-up: James Young and Rick Sincere have posts on their blogs and have commented here; One Man’s Trash and Commonwealth Conservative have also posted on this decision. This 5-4 ruling is, how shall we say it, not being well-received.

Virginia has altered its teacher licensing requirements

by eliminating a basic skills test and replacing it with a more rigorous reading and comprehension exam.

The result is that teachers will have to be more literate and proficient in the subjects they teach, but educators who do not teach math will no longer have to pass a math test.

The State Board of Education also announced that

teachers who have not yet passed the new tests can spend only one year in the classroom on a provisional license. Previously, they were given three years.

Teachers already holding a Virginia license or those with two years’ experience and a license from another state will not be affected by the new requirements.

I’m by and large okay with these changes, although the one year provisional license may negatively impact the teacher shortage. That might be a necessary evil if those individuals can’t pass this test, assuming its a fair exam. I’m a proponent of making it easier for non-traditional professionals to enter the teaching profession and this new testing regimen, more in tune with a person’s base of knowledge, rather than their education class ticket punching, might help.

Still, there’s a subjective component to evaluating a teacher and I’m not sure how to fairly rate potential or performance in that area.

Beneath the story of boom times in Northern Virginia is the story of day laborers, all too often immigrants, being exploited by unscrupulous contractors. From today’s Washington Post, a sample:

Adonay Hernandez, 26, of Arlington said he worked three days this month installing sheetrock at a home in Reston. The contractor gave him a check for only $300, instead of the promised wage of $364, Hernandez said. Then the check bounced, he said.

Fortunately, some day laborers, assisted by community service groups, are fighting back and getting justice:

In Prince William County, five Mexican immigrants won awards totaling more than $5,000 in small claims court from contractors.

In addition to the problem of not getting paid, many day laborers are getting no safety training before being assigned to dangerous work and many are sustaining injuries as a result.

I’m not in favor of setting up some new bureaucracy to police the cretinous contractors, but I think existing state agencies ought to come down like a ton of bricks on those who do not treat day laborers fairly. I think agencies can be more creative in establishing a presence to let contractors know they are being watched. It’s not like the day laborers don’t congregate in one place where someone could explain their rights or give them some safety tips.

Gubernatorial hopeful Tim Kaine spoke to Boys State participants at Liberty University yesterday, the day after Jerry Kilgore. Kaine apparently concentrated on education issues, but it was interesting that he spoke of Linwood Holton’s political career–Holton, the ultimate nominal Republican’s Republican, is his father-in-law.