• Unleashing the Fury of Bacon’s Rebellion.

    Once again, Virginia descends into intellectual anarchy as Bacon’s Rebellion roils the conventional wisdom and savages complacent assumptions. You can view the latest edition of the e-zine in its original format here and subscribe to the free e-mail here.

    Or, if you’re too timid — too devoted to the comfortable, unexamined truths that guide your complacent life — to engage in the insurrectionary act of subscribing to the Rebellion, you can peruse our offering of opinions below:

    Hidden Advantage
    Flexible labor markets are Virginia’s unappreciated competitive edge. They speed the redeployment of workers from low value-added businesses to high-performance enterprises.
    by James A. Bacon

    Blow Against the Wind?
    The political pros know that running with the numbers is better than running with the issues.
    by Doug Koelemay

    One More? Two More?
    How many more years of political fraud must we endure? Here are some proposals to make the political system more responsive to the needs of a 21st-century polity.
    by EM Risse

    It Was Closer Than It Looked
    The Democrats are crowing after their triumph over General Assembly Republicans. But their margin of victory was a lot closer than the newspaper headlines let on.
    by Michael Thompson

    Truth in Packaging
    The CW says Republicans lost General Assembly seats last week because their candidates were too conservative. But look closely: “Moderates” were evicted, while those who stuck to their principles survived.
    by Norm Leahy

    The 70 percent solution
    Virginians look to local government for solid data on issues like illegal immigration. But there is no evidence supporting Chesterfield County’s estimate that seven of 10 Hispanics in the county are there illegally.
    by Peter Galuszka

    If He Wasn’t Whining, Would We Notice Him At All?
    Tom Davis is living proof that the “big tent” strategy is a loser for Republicans if it means conservatives are filing out the back door.
    by John Taylor

    Nice & Curious Questions
    Weigh Stations in Virginia: Or How Heavy is That 18-Wheeler?
    by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs


  • Racial Rohrschach Test

    Here is the flier that set emotions aflame at Mary Washington University, according to anonymous comments on my previous post on this topic, “More Racism on Campus. What Am I Missing Here?”

    The photograph captures a moment after the 2000 Michigan State University basketball team, showing a jubilant coach Tom Izzo embracing an emotional Mateen Cleaves after winning the NCAA championship. Cleaves was named Most Outstanding Player of the Final Four for his brilliant play. (I know nothing of such matters. If anyone has better information, please correct me.)

    The photograph appears to be undoctored. (You can see a copy of it here on the viewimages.com website. And you can view a video here, the final scene of which shows Izzo and a crying Cleaves from a different angle.) Therefore, there shouldn’t be anything offensive or intolerant about the photograph itself. The outcry at Mary Washington, then, must have stemmed from the words used in conjunction with the photograph. What, then, do the words mean?

    I interpret the words as drawing an analogy between college/professional sports and the institution of slavery. In the context of the photograph, “Slavery Reinstated” clearly suggests that the institution of slavery has been put back into effect in big money sports. The meaning of “Catch yourself a strong one” is more opaque. By a “strong one,” the author might be referring to a strong athlete/slave. By “catch,” the author might be referring to the act of enslavement.

    While equating highly honored and compensated black athletes with slaves seems a stretch to me, politically “progressive” writers have made that very argument. In his book “Forty Million Dollar Slaves: The Rise, Fall, and Redemption of the Black Athlete,” New York Times sports columnist William Rhoden “offers a charged assessment of the state of black athletes in America, using the pervasive metaphor of the plantation to describe a modern sports industry defined by white ownership and black labor,” according to Publishers Weekly.

    Likewise, in โ€œThe Slave Side of Sunday,โ€ former NFL player Anthony Prior examines the legacy of racism in professional sports. โ€œWe are not looked at as leaders, rather, just a labor force where the money is generated,” he writes. “Plantation capitalism is still alive today.โ€

    So, once again, I raise the question, “Where’s the racism? Where’s the intolerance?” The white student who posted the flier appeared to be making a political statement — expressing a “progressive” political sensitivity that has been converted into books by major publishers, has been reviewed in the Mainstream Media and reflects the views of a number of African-Americans.

    Am I missing something here?


  • No Excuse for Intimidating Hispanic Citizens

    As part of the ongoing dialogue on Bacon’s Rebellion about illegal immigration, I am perfectly willing to highlight facts and incidents that don’t conform to my “narrative” of the controversy. In past posts and comments, I have objected to those who stereotype the foes of illegal immigration (including myself, on occasion) as motivated by racial/ethnic prejudice, a tactic that I regard as a way to shut down the debate without even discussing the issues. I have asked commentators to show concrete examples of racist or prejudicial behavior, not simply assert it on the basis that the contras (if I’m allowed to use a Spanish word for an Anglo group) are white, middle-class suburbanites. If such behavior could be documented, I promised, I would condemn it.

    In that spirit, I now bring to the attention of Bacon’s Rebellion readers an example of what may be indefensible behavior: intimidation of Hispanics, whom we have no reason to assume are not citizens, at the voting booth. Here’s what the Manassas Journal-Messenger reports this morning:

    State police are investigating possible voter intimidation of some Hispanic residents that occurred outside a polling place in Gainesville.

    Prince William County Registrar Betty Weimer said members of a group outside Stonewall Middle School were threatening to call the police Tuesday on Hispanics entering the polling place.

    “There was a group of people out there with a camera yelling at our Hispanic voters that if they were illegal, they were going to be deported,” Weimer said.

    In a separate incident, protesters allegedly objected to being given English-language assistance at the voting booth. It is important to remember, of course, that these cases are under investigation, and there are two sides to every story. There is no guarantee the incidents panned out as reported. However, if this report is accurate, the behavior is indefensible. Hispanic citizens have the same rights as every American, and that includes the right to vote free of intimidation. If the story is accurate, Prince William County needs to protect the rights of its Hispanic citizens.

    Furthermore, anti-illegal activists should understand that they’re doing their cause no favors. The phenomenon of illegal immigration raises legitimate issues, but it doesn’t help anyone to create an environment of fear. Stereotyping Hispanics on the presumption that they might be illegal only gives ammunition to those who would sweep the illegal-immigration issue under the rug. Stick to the facts, guys. Obey the law. Don’t confirm your foes’ worst suspicions. I, for one, am not going to cover for you.


  • Theocracy Postponed. Wittman Wins Nomination.

    In an exciting convention battle with more than 1,000 participants, Del. Rob Wittman, a first-term lawmaker from the Northern Neck, won the Republican nomination to fill the congressional seat of the late Rep. Jo Ann Davis of Gloucester. Wittman, a state employee for the Division of Shellfish Sanitation, touted his experience in local government. He emerged as the winner of a free-for-all between 11 contenders, including Bacon’s Rebellion columnist James Bowden.

    In the early stages of the convention, conservative Newport News businessman Paul Jost was deemed to have the edge. But his support eroded, and the momentum shifted to Wittman. Del. Harvey Morgan, R-Middlesex, told the Daily Press that there was a widespread concern that Jost was too conservative.”We’ve lost a number of elections because the candidates were too far to the right,” he said. “The forces that won here were the forces of moderation.”

    Secular humanists can rest easy. Democracy is safe. Jim Bowden won’t have a chance to impose a theocracy on America after all. (To learn more about the Bowden menace, read the comments in “Jim Bowden: Not a Candidate for the Baby Kissers.”)


  • THE PENDULUM SWINGS

    Our next Backgrounder will examine why MainStream Media is doing such a bad job of providing the information citizens need to make intelligent decisions in the marketplace and in the voting booth.

    From time to time MainStream Media does do a very good job of documenting the results of citizens making bad decisions in the marketplace and in the voting booth.

    A case in point is the series WaPo is running on “Harvesting Cash” โ€“ details of federal farm subsidy pork barrel / fraud. In another good example, WaPo recently ran a series on the disasters generated by federal pork barrel water projects about which the veto override made the news this week. Both are available in the archives at http://www.washingtonpost.com/

    Of interest today is the Page One coverage by Steven Mufson: “Oil Price Rise Causes Global Shift in Wealth.” The wealth transfer is stupendous, the graphic on the jump page with respect to the impact on the US of A is frightening.

    The US of A is a wounded whale with a lame duck president and such dysfunctional settlement patterns that there is little hope of changing course without massive economic, social and physical pain.

    Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns is the only possible course of action that will significantly reduce foreign oil dependency. It is the only way to substantially reduce the demand for Autonomobile use other transport waste that consums 70 percent of the oil imports.

    Fundmental Change in settlement patterns is the only way citizens can be happy and safe, and not be hostage to rising oil prices.

    WaPo tells us where citizens are going due to past errors in the marketplace and in the voting booth. They did not tell citizens that there were alternatives nor did they articulate the result of the current trajectory when the resources were available to make Fundamental Change without massive pain.

    Enjoy to game.

    EMR


  • More Racism on Campus. What Am I Missing Here?

    The latest uproar over racism in Virginia is taking place at Mary Washington College in Fredericksburg. There has been a huge outcry over the following:

    On Oct. 15, a freshman posted a flier, downloaded from the Internet, on the refrigerator of a dormitory lounge. As reported by the Free Lance-Star, the flier pictured a sobbing black basketball player with his white coach and reads, “Slavery reinstated: Catch yourself a strong one.”

    I have a question: What does that mean? I can’t tell. The Free Lance-Star, the Times-Dispatch, NBC news and the college newspaper, The Bullet, all have reported on the incident but none have reproduced the image. Therefore, we lack crucial context in interpreting the flier. Supposedly, some white students found it funny. If there’s a joke, I don’t get it. If anything, it would seem that the flier is equating the status of black athletes with slaves. That’s a comparison that socially progressive sports writers have trotted out from time to time. But it’s just not clear. The words could mean something else entirely.

    For the life of me, though, I can’t see anything that is self-evidently racist. I’ve been accused of being unable to see racism — when confronted with the bald facts, I hold my hands over my ears and loudly say, la la la la la la, I can’t hear you! Evidently, I am clueless once again, and I ask Bacon’s Rebellion readers to help me out.

    Apparently, acting college president Rick Hurley had no trouble spotting the racism. The trouble began when MWU housekeepers encountered the flier and filed a complaint. Hurley was reported to be “livid” when he first heard about it. His reaction: “I wanted to see [the students responsible] thrown off campus. I don’t think they belong here,” he was quoted as saying in The Bullet. “It’s one of the ugliest, most awful things I’ve ever seen. I got choked up just looking at it.”

    That’s strong language. Maybe the artwork in the flier appealed to derogatory racial stereotypes. If so, I don’t blame Hurley for getting upset. But if that’s the case, it hasn’t been reported. The news accounts are frustrating because nobody says exactly what they found offensive. They’re just offended, end of story. There have been rallies. Sensitivity forums are being organized. Professors are discussing the incident in classrooms. UMW has even upped its police presence in the dormitory where the flier was found.

    One student associated with the flier has apologized for his “racial insensitivity” as well as conduct that he said was “uncalled for and completely out of line.” But that apparently isn’t the end of it. Reports NBC news: “The student who posted it is being charged with violating university policies and will be subject to possible disciplinary action by the campus judicial system.”

    In a separate story, the Free Lance-Star interviewed Hurley:

    The poster violates the school’s values, but it’s unclear when “you ask how you prosecute for violations of those values,” [Hurley] said in a telephone interview. Hurley will appoint a task force to make sure the rules are “as comprehensive as necessary to prosecute offenders to the extent legally possible when incidents occur.”

    Also, he’s asking an advisory council to immediately form a university policy on how to deal with “bias-related” incidents. Some wondered why the administration didn’t react more decisively to the news.

    He wouldn’t say whether the school’s current policies will hinder its prosecution of the student, whom he didn’t name. But he did say that the university must keep First Amendment rights in mind.

    Well, that’s reassuring. Offenders will be prosecuted to the fullest extent legally possible for violating “community values,” but at least their “First Amendment rights” will be protected. When the administration does file charges, I hope it will at least specify how the flier offended community values. Otherwise, we’ll all just have to guess.

    Unless I’m missing something — and I’m open to the possibility I am, given the incomplete description of the offending flier — my guess is that many white students will learn the wrong lesson: They’ll conclude that the whole notion of “tolerance” on campus is a joke, that certain views and actions are to be tolerated but others are not. I suspect that many will sullenly submit to the PC thought police, keep their opinions about race to themselves, and refuse to engage in the kind of healthy, open dialogue we need if we’re ever to achieve racial conciliation and understanding in this country.


  • Richmond Rocks: Schnitzel

    Here’s how I tell if a music CD is any good. I pop it in the computer and listen to it as background music while I work. If I like a song, I’ll play it over. If the tunes leave me with a good feeling, I’ll play the whole album over. If some of the chords stick in my head, I know I’ve got a keeper. That’s what happened when I played “Cold Harbor,” a CD recently recorded by a local Richmond band, Schnitzel.

    I’ve revolted against the least-common-denominator music packaged and hyped by the big record labels. I’m a big believer in supporting local artists, many of whom are just as talented as the musicians who get national air time. Once upon a time, you had to be young, hang out at nightclubs and stay up late to hear the local bands. Nowadays, you can find them online and order their CDs, many of which have remarkably good production values.

    I have no idea whether Jim O’Brien, the band’s lead vocalist, guitarist and writer of most of its songs, has a shot of breaking into the big time. All I know is that I enjoyed listening to his lyrics, which are rooted in the Richmond area, and his clean, simple melodies, which linger in the memory. Schnitzel’s music wanders somewhere between rock and folk. If you’re looking for a fresh, easy-listening sound, then try Schnitzel. If you’re over 40, trust me, you’ll enjoy it more than 95 percent of what you hear on the radio.

    Check out Schnitzel’s audio clips at CDBaby. If you have time for only one clip, I’d recommend “Truck Bedliner” or “Caroline.” (click link to play).


  • Jim Bowden: Not a Candidate for the Baby Kissers

    Bacon’s Rebellion columnist Jim Bowden is engaged in an eleven-way race for the Republic nomination to fill the House of Representatives seat left vacant upon the passing of Jo Ann Davis. Bacon’s Rebellion does not endorse candidates for office, but it would be churlish of us not to highlight the high-profile political activities of our contributors.

    Love him or hate him, Bowden is truly a policy wonk’s candidate for office. Check out his campaign website. It’s loaded with content, outlining Bowden’s take on just about every issue under the sun. No vapid photos of him kissing babies, reading to school children or walking old ladies across the street. Especially helpful are the short video clips highlighting his spin on hot button issues from taxes and healthcare to illegal Immigration and what he calls World War IV.

    Clearly, Bowden, who defines himself as a defense, fiscal and social conservative, does not shy away from controversial positions. No namby-pamby middle-of-the-roadism here. After this week’s chastening of the GOP in the General Assembly elections, it will be interesting to see what kind of candidate the Republican party activists nominate in tomorrow’s convention to run against the Dems.


  • Solar May Be Hot, But Geothermal is Cooler

    Photovoltaic solar cells capture the public imagination as a renewable energy source for homeowners, but nothing beats geothermal heating/cooling for proven efficiency and reliability. My dad installed a geothermal system when he built a house in Norfolk some two decades ago. As far as I know, it has worked trouble-free all those years, quietly racking up savings on his heating and air conditioning bills.

    Geothermal units function as heat pumps: They run water through underground tubes, absorb the constant 57- to 58-degree temperature found underground, recirculate the water into the house, and exchange the heat again. Although circulating the water does requires electricity, the system is three to four times more cost-effective than electric resistance heat.

    From an electric-grid perspective, geothermal offers advantages over solar. Solar generates electricity intermittently — during the daytime only, and when clouds aren’t blocking the sun. When homeowners are generating more electricity than they need, they can sell it into the electric grid. The inherent unpredictability poses problems for power companies whose job it is to manage a stable grid. That’s why Dominion and other electric utilities want to restrict the contribution of solar energy to one percent of system capacity.

    By contrast, geothermal is totally predictable. It runs evenly round the clock, and by its nature, it makes the biggest contribution when outdoor temperatures — and the demands on the electric grid — are at their extremes of heat and cold. Geothermal systems create a more stable and easily managed grid.

    Geothermal isn’t high-tech, cool or glamorous in any way. You don’t even know it’s there. Which is another one of its selling points — geothermal systems are unobtrusive. They don’t violate homeowner covenants for unsightliness. The neighbors won’t complain. As Virginia investigates strategies to promote conservation and renewable fuels, it should take a good, hard look at geothermal.

    As a practical matter, what can Virginia do?

    1. Work out electric billing rates that reward homeowners for reducing peak electric loads. Right now, power companies charge the same for every kilowatt hour, regardless of the time of day. Charging higher rates during periods of peak load and lower rates for off-peak consumption will provide a strong financial incentive for homeowners to invest in systems, like geothermal, that moderate system demand.
    2. Get some clarity, reflected in local ordinances, on when less expensive “open loop” systems are permissible. Clarke County recently denied a homeowner request to install an open loop system, which draws water from one well and discharges it into another, on the grounds that “they use more water and cause what they called ‘ponding and excessive runoff’ when no body of water was available to receive discharge,” reports the Clarke Times-Courier.

    Here’s what not to do: Give homeowners a tax credit for installing the systems, as the state has already done with energy-efficient appliances. The state tax code already looks like it’s been peppered with buckshot. Tax credits of various kinds cost the state well over $1 billion a year in lost income tax revenue alone. The goal of public policy should not be to encourage geothermal regardless of the cost — it should be to encourage geothermal where it makes rational economic sense. The best way to do that is to create a rational tariff for electricity consumption and to clear away encumbrances from local ordinances.

    (Image credit: Renewable Energy UK.)


  • Like Clockwork, the Blame Game Commences

    It didn’t take long for the finger pointing to begin. Richard Viguerie, the Northern Virginia direct-mail guru who bills himself as “the funding father” of the conservative movement, maintains that Republicans lost eight General Assembly seats this week because its leaders had failed to stay true to their core values. Writes Viguerie in an e-mail missive today:

    The present Republican team in Richmond has failed, especially in the Senate. Grassroots activists and donors should demand these leaders be replaced for their failures. โ€œNo one should be surprised at the election results. This is a direct result of the Republican in Name Only (RINO) legislative leadership. These RINO legislators have openly collaborated with the liberals in the General Assembly and with Democratic governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine to massively increase spending and taxes.

    โ€œAs a result, the Virginia Republican Partyโ€”like the national Republican Partyโ€”has lost its brand as the party of fiscal responsibility. And the predictable election results have been the same on both the state and national levels. Liberal voters who want higher spending and higher taxes predominantly vote Democratic, while conservatives, having been betrayed by Republicans, lose heart and interest in voting.”

    There are elements of truth here. The Republican Party has lost its brand as the party of fiscal responsibility. But there’s more to the story. People want low taxes and sound finances, but they also want government to fulfill certain responsibilities in the realms of education, transportation, the environment, the social safety net and other core obligations. Voters look for a package of low (or moderate) taxes, efficient government and creative solutions to society’s challenges.

    From my vantage point, the now-retiring state Senate stood for the “take-your-fish oil” brand of fiscal conservatism, which translated into raising taxes in lock step with rising demand for government services. In the five years I have been covering politics closely in Virginia, I saw little original, creative or innovative legislation emanating from the senate. The House of Delegates, by contrast, has been a fount of ideas — some good, some bad. For the most part, those ideas — including the most sweeping structural reforms to transportation and land use in 70 years — were ignored by the media. (I’m not accusing the media of bias, just noting that the biggest business-of-government story of this generation went largely unreported.) The failure of the House has not been a failure to think creatively about Virginia’s challenges but to bypass traditional media channels to reach the public.

    Democratic Party leaders — first Gov. Mark Warner, then Gov. Timothy M. Kaine — projected an image as men who could “get things done.” Senate and House Republicans, by contrast, warred with each other, projecting an image of fractiousness. Now that key polarizing figures are departing — John Chichester and Russell Potts foremost among them — Senate Rs may mend fences with their House counterparts. That could solve the “fractiousness” problem.

    But the Rs have to convince voters that they’re both serious about fighting tax hikes and capable of addressing Virginia’s very real challenges. If what we hear from the Rs in 2008 is more politics of symbolism — flag burning amendments, prayer in schools, etc. — they will fail miserably. If they can advance an agenda that solves real problems and keeps spending/taxes in check, they can re-emerge as winners.


  • A Victory for Genuine Smart Growth, or Just a Cry of Inarticulate Rage?

    Democratic Party gains in the General Assembly, including the takeover of the state Senate, has rightfully been treated as the big story of Virginia’s 2007 elections. But there’s another story big story: the swelling anti-growth backlash at the level of local government.

    Anti-growth candidates swept to victory in Loudoun County, Fairfax County and Chesterfield County. The smart growth movement also gained ground in Warren, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Orange, Albemarle, Hanover and Powhatan counties.

    Conservationists are spinning the Tuesday election results as a huge victory for “smart growth.”
    Said Stewart Schwartz, Executive Director of Coalition for Smarter Growth: โ€œGovernor Kaine is widely seen as having won his election, particularly in the outer suburbs, because of his support for better growth management. Two years later, growth management remains the hot-button issue, with those local candidates who were most strongly identified with smarter growth often carrying the day.โ€

    Said Lisa Guthrie, Executive Director of the Virginia League of Conservation Voters: โ€œThe local support for better growth management remains strong and I hope it signals to state legislators, both new and old, the importance of supporting land use tools for local governments and transportation investments that support smarter growth. The frustrations over growth expressed in this election shows that the state must do more, not less, to help localities to focus growth and infrastructure in walkable communities, protect rural farmland and open space, and invest in transit.”

    While I am a strong advocate of smart growth, in my observation newly elected anti-growth activists often make matters worse. They naively impose growth controls that have harmful unintended consequences: restricting housing supply, pushing growth to outlying counties, forcing people to commute longer distances. Indeed, the remedies of many anti-growth populists are the very antithesis of smart growth: prohibition of higher-density development, opposition to Transit Oriented Development, even opposition to mass transit itself. Just witness Prince William County.

    I interpret the local election results as an articulate cry of rage against Business As Usual. Until more evidence comes it, I do not assume that the newly elected boards of supervisors will embrace anything resembling “smart growth.” I hope the optimism of Schwartz and Guthrie is well founded. But I wouldn’t bet money on it.


  • Dems Win Big Time… ZZZZZzzzzzzz

    I never got emotionally involved in this year’s General Assembly campaign, but I did my civic duty yesterday and voted. Last night, I didn’t bother to turn on the television and watch the returns. It wasn’t until this morning that I checked the Internet that I discovered that the Democrats have taken control of the state Senate and gained ground in the House of Delegates. Congratulations to them. Otherwise, big whoop.

    As I’ve argued before, both parties support Business As Usual in the sphere of business and economics. The main issues where party control really makes a difference are the culture-war issues. I consider myself a centrist in most of those, distrustful of both extremes, so a marginal shift to the left really doesn’t bother me.

    The Dems tend to be more expansionist in their view of government, which means that they are even more willing to reach into my pocket than most Republicans, but the old GOP-dominated Senate, dominated by John Chichester, had been so eager to hike spending and increase taxes that I really don’t expect to see much difference. Virginia will remain on the same steep growth curve in the size and scope of government that it has been on for several years now.

    The new man to watch is Richard Saslaw, D-Fairfax, who replaces Chichester as the power broker in the state Senate. As the new Senate Majority Leader and chairman of the Commerce and Labor committee, Saslaw will set the agenda on business-related issues. According to my contacts in the conservation community, his ascendancy looks like a victory for Business As Usual. They are very worried.

    As far as individual candidates, I’m disappointed to see that Albert Pollard lost in the race for Chichester’s old Fredericksburg-area seat. He was one of the few genuine environmentalists running for a Senate seat.

    On the other hand, it looks like Ken Cuccinelli will hang on to his Northern Virginia seat by a whisker. While I don’t share his views on the culture war, I find him refreshingly articulate and aggressive on size-and-scope-of-government issues. He doesn’t kow-tow to the power structure. If he survives the count of absentee ballots and the inevitable recount, he could help re-shape Senate Republicans into a faction that stands for more than defense of the status quo.

    The donkey clan is clearly in the ascendancy in Virginia now. It controls the governor’s mansion and a U.S. Senate seat, it has won the state Senate and eroded the GOP majority in the House, and it is the odds-on favorite to win a second Senate seat next year. It is time for some serious soul-searching over in the Grand Old Party. Elephants in Virginia are increasingly looking like an endangered species.


  • The Waiting is the Hardest Part

    I haven’t voted yet, but will after work. In the meantime, here’s a few things I’m going to be paying attention to in tonight’s returns:

    1. Chesterfield County. The local races for the Board of Supervisors has been particulary heated and the main issue is growth. The Roanoke Times has taken a look at absentee ballot requests across the state and finds that Chesterfield has seen absentee requests double over the 2003 races. Money from developers has been an issue here and it’s possible that supporters of slow- and no-growth candidates could be sufficiently motivated to overcome the gloom of a Central VA day to head to the polls in substantial numbers.

    2. The Waddell/Loupassi race in the 68th. Waddell won a squeaker last year over the unlamented Brad Marrs. She was supposed to be a goner when former Richmond city council president Manoli Loupoassi moved into the district and took up the challenge. But Waddell has refused to fade under Manoli’s well-financed campaign and has even hit back with real vigor. She had cable television ads up early, but Loupassi has responded with network ads. It will be close and events in the local Chesterfield races could have a huge impact on the final results.

    3. Ralph Smith v. Mike Breiner in Roanoke. Smith spent very little to upset incumbent Brandon Bell in the primary. But Breiner has raised a truckload of money and run an aggressive campaign. LTG Bill Bolling was in the area recently to give the Smith campaign a big check and local GOP activists a tongue-lashing over the closeness of this race.

    4. Stuart v. Pollard. You can’t vote for either canduideate in Richmond, but their ads have been all over the local airwaves. Both men come across as entirely likeable in their spots, but there’s a lot of backstory here that will finally play itself out at the polls. Angry (or perhaps merely bitter) conservatives distrust Stuart and a few big name Republican donors have actually been writing checks to Pollard — just as they have in the Peterson/Devolites-Davis race in Fairfax County. Outgoing incumbent John Chichester has been writing checks to Democrats…it’s a cats and dogs, sleeping together, kind of situation that looks and sounds like it came right out of the kindergarden playground.

    There are plenty more worth watching tonight, and the fate of the universe stands in the balance!

    Well, not really. The deck chairs will get shuffled, but the ship of state will plod on through the waves just the same.

    Which is depressing…except when you consider the possibility that the next General Assembly could feature both disbarred lawyer/amatuer boxer Joe Morrisey in the House and “get the government out of education” Trish Stall in the Senate.

    It just might be like the old days of the Richmond city council — colorful, bombastic, and utterly embarassing.


  • Propaganda Poll on Dulles Rail

    Ninety-three percent of Northern Virginia residents “favor” the extension of Metro heavy rail to Tysons Corner and into Loudoun County, according to a poll commissioned by the Dulles Corridor Rail Association and conducted by iQ Research & Consulting.

    Overwhelming majorities of respondants (80 percent or more) answered in the affirmative when asked if the project would “provide another way to get to and from Dulles Airport,” “provide more choice in ways to get to and around the area,” and “help reduce fuel consumption/energy use.” (Interestingly, only 62 percent agreed, when prompted that the project would “reduce growth in traffic congestion.”) Few surprises here.

    The poll got the response it was designed to get. Heck, if you asked me an open-ended question on whether I “favor” Rail to Dulles, shorn of any context regarding how much it costs, who will pay for it, or what the alternative uses of the money are, I would respond yes. I think it’s a great idea — in the abstract.

    In other words, the poll was not designed to plumb the complexities and nuances of public opinion, but to create a impression, possibly misleading, that overwhelming public support for the project exists. It was what I call a propaganda poll.

    Here are questions that might have elicited quite a different response:

    • The latest cost estimate for extending Metro heavy rail through Tysons Corner and Dulles Airport is $5 billion. Do still you “favor” the project?
    • Do you think $5 billion would alleviate more traffic congestion in Northern Virginia if it were spent in other ways, such as Bus Rapid Transit, traffic light synchronization or spot improvements to local roadway bottlenecks?
    • More than half the cost of the Rail-to-Dulles project would be paid by users of the Dulles Toll Road, even though they were promised the tolls would be lifted by now. Is it fair that people not using the Metro are forced to pay for it?
    • The primary beneficiaries of Rail-to-Dulles are wealthy property owners whose land adjoins planned Metro stations, but they’re contributing only a small fraction of the construction costs. Do you think they should pay a bigger share?

    Garbage in, garbage out.


  • What’s On NoVa’s Mind as Voters Head to the Polls?

    As Virginians head to the polls today, traffic congestion is the number one issue on the minds of Northern Virginia voters, according to a recent poll conducted by the Dulles Corridor Rail Association. Illegal immigration is number two. Presumably those concerns will be motivating voters in key battleground districts up for grabs in today’s election for the state Senate and the House of Delegates.

    The poll, conducted by iQ Research & Consulting, included a sample of 400 Northern Virginians. One of the questions asked: “From the following list of issues, which ONE do you see as the most important one to be addressed?”

    1. Increase in home foreclosures……………………. 8%
    2. Crime and drugs………………………………….. 9%
    3. Traffic congestion ……………………………… 38%
    4. Education ……………………………………….. 8%
    5. Illegal immigration ………………………………22%
    6. Property taxes …………………………………… 5%
    7. Unemployment…………………………………… 2%
    8. Other ……………………………………………. 2%
    9. None …………………………………………….. 1%
    10. Combination ……………………………………. 6%

    As a Richmonder, I have absolute no feel for the public sentiment in Northern Virginia. But I would suggest that this list of priorities would tend to favor the elephant clan. Traffic congestion is clearly the number one issue. Call that a toss-up. Nobody’s really happy with the legislation passed this year, but at least the Rs can claim they passed something.

    Illegal immigration, the number two issue, should cut decisively in favor of the Rs, or it would if so many Ds hadn’t started talking tough on illegal immigration. For example, Albert Pollard, a Democrat campaigning in a tight race for a Fredericksburg-area senate seat, is running TV ads in the Richmond media market that proclaim him a staunch foe of illegal immigration. Still, the Dems are Johnny-come-latelies to this issue. Advantage: Rs.

    Crime & drugs traditionally favors the Rs, while education traditionally favors the Ds. Both are garnering about the same intensity of interest among NoVa voters, thus canceling each other out. The “increase in home foreclosures” doesn’t cut one way or the other, as it is not affected by state-level political decisions.

    The only other issue that registers on the voter radar is property taxes, which I boldly predicted last year would be a major factor in this election and clearly has not. (So much for my prognostications!) The tax issue generally tilts toward the Rs, though, so this might add a sliver of support to elephant clan candidates.

    Unemployment — a concern in Northern Virginia? Surely you gest.

    All told, I don’t see the state/local issues matrix hurting the Rs at all. If general disillusionment with President Bush spills over into local politics, we could see a Republican rout. Otherwise, the Rs are likely to outperform their miserable expectations…. For whatever that’s worth.

    Which is not much. As noted in previous blog postings, no election result is likely to dislodge the rule of special interests. The forces of Business As Usual, also known as the Axis of Taxes, have covered their bets through giant campaign contributions, and they will remain in power behind the scenes no matter which political tribe wins today.