By Joshua Devamithran

Virginia’s mandatory vehicle safety inspection program is less than a decade away from its centennial anniversary. Established in 1932, Virginia’s inspection program is the oldest continuous program in the country. In 1975, thirty-one states and the District of Columbia had mandatory safety inspection programs. Today, Virginia is one of just fifteen states that have retained such a mandatory inspection program.

The stated purpose of Virginia’s mandatory vehicle safety inspection program is to promote highway safety. Inspection programs seek to accomplish this goal by reducing the number of vehicles with existing or potential conditions that may contribute to vehicle crashes and fatalities. The logic concludes that mandatory inspection programs are necessary to achieve this goal.

However, to date, studies have not shown a statistically significant relationship between mandatory inspection programs and an increase in motor safety. In 2015, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) analyzed studies published between 1992 and 2013 that were relevant for determining the safety benefits and costs of state vehicle inspection programs across the nation. Their survey of these studies examined the effect of inspection programs on crash rates related to vehicle component failure and found no clear influence. In some places like Nebraska, after the mandatory inspection program was eliminated in 1982, the number of crashes caused by vehicle component defects actually declined.

The studies reviewed in the GAO report were conducted at a time when vehicles were a lot less safe than they are today. Over the last decade, car safety has significantly improved thanks to advancements in technology and increased safety standards. Cars today have advanced driver assistance programs that provide lane warnings, emergency braking, and crash avoidance. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) found that these advancements can reduce crashes between 11 and 50 percent. The IIHS also found that structural improvements in the design of cars as well as other improvements like electronic stability control have significantly reduced fatalities.

 So, the question is, does a focus on reducing vehicles on the road with component failure – the main focus of vehicle inspections – contribute to the goal of greater safety and less fatalities?

Research shows that the link between vehicle component failure and vehicle crashes is tenuous at best. Component failure is a critical reason in only an estimated 2% of crashes, according to the National Center for Statistics and Analysis (NCSA). The NCSA found that driver errors, including errors in driver’s recognition, decision, or performance, account for an estimated 94% of vehicle crashes. It seems the benefits of mandatory inspection programs for roadway safety are indiscernible in the data, at least in part because the programs aim to mitigate an agent of vehicle crashes that in reality, is at cause in only a tiny proportion of crashes. Then, there is little to no evidence that the inspections eliminate or significantly lower equipment failure related accidents.

Interestingly, state officials from the inspection programs studied in the 2015 GAO analysis all stated in interviews that they believed the inspection programs did improve vehicle and highway safety. These officials believed this despite the conclusions reached by the GAO indicating that there was no such proof. Do we accept anecdotal “belief” or hard data?

Even assuming there is some benefit, the question then becomes, do inspection programs provide enough safety benefit to outweigh the cost of these programs to drivers?

During his administration, Democrat Governor Ralph Northam answered resoundingly “No,” and Governor Glenn Youngkin should follow his course.

In 2020, Governor Northam’s proposal to eliminate safety inspections didn’t get passed the General Assembly, but later that year Governor Northam suspended the program by executive order during Covid. “Data shows that there is no connection between highway safety and these inspections. That’s why 35 other states don’t have them,” he said. Governor’s Northam’s office supported their argument with research from state transportation officials indicating that from 2008 to 2017, the crash rate in states without inspection programs declined by about eight percent, while the crash rate in Virginia declined by only about two percent during that period.

In fact, in the same year as Governor Northam’s executive order suspending inspections, vehicle crashes declined by over 17%. It’s true that crash fatalities increased also from 2019 to 2020, but that increase was relatively marginal at 2% and was heavily influenced by a massive increase in alcohol and speed related crashes. Could safety inspections be making us less safe?

Northam estimated that eliminating the inspection program and its accompanying $20 fee would save Virginia citizens $150 million per year. With more licensed drivers and vehicles registered now than there were in 2020, the savings of eliminating inspection programs for Virginia motorists could be even greater. On top of the $20 fee for the inspection itself, a reasonable estimate of other costs incurred by consumers, including opportunity costs, could easily double or triple the expense. Even excluding gas for travel, dropping the car off and picking it up with an escort both ways, or waiting in line and wasting what would otherwise be productive uses of their time, all add to the true cost for consumers.

Eliminating the inspection program would also reduce the costs consumers currently pay for repairs that are not necessary, but that are forced by the repair shops because of a flawed incentive structure. Automotive repair is one of the few “diagnosis-cure” industries, with repair shops acting as both the doctor diagnosing problems, and the surgeon fixing them. Herein lies perhaps the most troubling aspect of mandatory vehicle inspection programs: inspection providers have a financial interest in identifying vehicle component flaws, since every flaw they identify means more money in their or other mechanic’s pocket. To make matters worse, the inspection criteria repair shops use is subjective, and the results of the inspection are binding, so consumers have no way to discern truth from money grabbing.

This fluffed incentive structure creates ample opportunity for moral hazard and abuse, as evidenced by the many reports of drivers being forced to pay for unnecessary repairs in order to pass inspection. Whether the defect is a minor issue that has little or no bearing on safety, or an exaggerated claim of wear on a specific part, drivers are compelled to purchase the prescribed repairs to avoid being straddled with a failed inspection sticker.

Unfortunately, as with many safety regulations which raise the cost of ownership, the cumulative burden of Virginia’s mandatory vehicle inspection program hurts the poor the most. There is ample evidence that car ownership helps the working poor get ahead by improving access to job opportunities and increasing their ability to live in safer neighborhoods. Inspection programs add to the cost of car ownership in a time when both new and used car prices have soared to all-time highs and have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels. In a post-pandemic world, where moderate- and higher-income workers can log in remotely, lower-skilled jobs often still require a commute. Eighty percent of Virginians commute by car, and a higher percentage of lower-income workers must commute. 

The principle is simple: In the absence of clear evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of a regulation in meeting its stated goal, that regulation should be eliminated. And if that regulation costs more than its benefits, it should be eliminated or significantly revised.  

Under Governor Youngkin’s leadership, this principle has been guiding. In two years, Virginia has made considerable strides in uprooting unnecessary and burdensome regulations, streamlining rules, and cutting costs for consumers. Governor Youngkin’s newly established Office of Regulatory Management (ORM) has exceeded expectations, saving Virginia citizens an estimated $1.2 billion per year through various regulatory cutbacks. Reeve T. Bill’s, ORM’s Director, recent article in the Regulatory Review highlights several of the tremendous accomplishments achieved by the ORM. Our President, Derrick Max, has also compellingly explained how Virginia’s recent regulatory reform could serve as a model for other states to create an environment where their citizens can thrive.

Virginia and Governor Youngkin have one more page to steal from other states. Eliminating Virginia’s mandatory vehicle inspection program would fit our state’s agenda, eliminate a costly and unnecessary burden on Virginia motorists, eliminate one more burden on the poor, and further nurture the environment of prosperity critical to keeping Virginia the place to live, work, and raise a family.  

Joshua Devamithran is a Research Fellow with the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy.