Sorry: One more post on the election. Last week both of the campaigns mentioned the July Mason-Dixon poll showing Kaine up by one as a turning point in the campaign. Just for giggles here is the long string of comments it produced on this blog at the time. We should all read it and reflect on the genius or foolishness we displayed (Day was the genius, of course). If any of you want to come out from behind the “anonymous” tag, now’s your chance. Did the blog echo chamber add to its impact?
Reviewing some of my own comments on polls this cycle one of my major screwups was reading the final Washington Post poll. Once they posted the full results I read it as a sample error that was too Democratic. What is showed, and I’m sure smarter folks than me saw, was an increased level of Democratic intensity among likely voters (and/or a drop off of intensity among Republicans, who were getting less and less likely to vote.) The tip off — the higher percentage of respondents listed as “pro-choice” than in the earlier poll. I read that as a sign the poll was in error, but in reality it was an indicator of who was planning to come to vote and who was scheduling a dental appointment on that day.
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