by Paul Goldman

Governor Glenn Youngkin says he’s a team player. He desperately wants the Virginia GOP ticket to win this fall. That’s why his backers say he pointed out the risks of nominating John Reid for lieutenant governor. Without a lie detector test or some magical discovery, there’s no way to know whether this is true.

But if Youngkin truly, really, totally wants the GOP to win this year, there is one thing he can do that nobody else can do to definitely boost the GOP‘s chances: He can resign and let Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears become the governor. This, in turn, will allow Sears to be the first chief executive in the modern era in Virginia to run for reelection.

This kind of unique unexpected event is necessary to give the GOP ticket a fighting chance this year. Governor Sears would be, of course, an historic governor — the first Black woman in America to serve as Governor. Sears would surely agree to let Youngkin’s men and women stay in place so they won’t lose their jobs.

Yes, Democrats would call it a stunt. A political ploy. A cynical game of using elected offices for a game of musical chairs. All this would be true.

But in the end, if she’s doing a good job in the public mind, they’re not gonna care how she got there. 

The last governor who tried this to help his party win is New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller. The Republican resigned a year before the election in order to give his lieutenant governor a leg up on winning reelection. It didn’t work. In large measure because the new GOP Governor had to run In a year  in which the normally Democratic Empire State produced a tidal wave of Democratic votes. 

Would this political maneuver work any better here in Virginia a half century later?

This is a fair question, but not the relevant one. Youngkin urged the GOP’s LG nominee to quit the ticket in order to help its potential electoral success this fall. Thus, the obvious question: Instead of asking someone else to sacrifice, why doesn’t the Governor do it himself?

I’ve helped enough governors to know they don’t do a heck of a lot in the last few months of their term. This is particularly true in Virginia because the General Assembly has finished its work.

There’s no indication Youngkin intends to call a special session of the General Assembly to address any fundamental problem in need of fixing. I can think of several fundamental problems Youngkin should want to fix. One in particular needing a constitutional change. But there’s no indication he has an interest in any of them.

Accordingly, the only big thing figuring to happen in the remainder of his term is whether he can elect his successor. 

Therefore, what does he lose by resigning in order to help his running mate make history? Nothing. 

I ask you: What if Joe Biden had resigned and let Kamala Harris become President? In my view, she would’ve beaten candidate Donald Trump handily. For sure, Mr. Trump and his people would’ve cried foul, said the election was rigged, claimed It was a liberal plot to steal the election. But that’s what they said anyway! They’ve been saying that for four years! 

Fact: As long as the public believed President Harris was doing a good job, this is what would have mattered when casting their vote. Even those who called it a ploy would surely have to admit President Harris would’ve been a stronger candidate than Vice President Harris.

President Biden, for whatever reason, put his personal interest above the interest of those who elected him and had one overriding interest: defeating Donald Trump. In my view, Biden blew his legacy, and he and his aides must know this now. 

Could a Governor Sears defeat Democratic nominee Spanberger? As I’ve indicated for months now, Ms. Spanberger is going to prove to be a formidable candidate this fall. Based on historical statistics and her own campaign skill, I stand by my prediction she will win between 6 to 10 percentage points if not more… Unless there’s a fundamental shift in the political landscape.

Youngkin resigning, so Governor Sears can run for reelection, strikes me as the only such fundamental change solely controlled by the Republicans. However, based on my sources, the GOP is still delusional this year. The current AG believes he will get reelected, even if Sears loses badly. This is a total fantasy not supported by any historical evidence. John Reid thinks he was helped by having a public feud with the governor. Another fantasy. 

They have no chance unless Sears can pull off a big upset win. Based on the historical statistics, Sears likely can’t do this unless she is running from the Governor’s Mansion. 

So, let’s ask the question one more time: is Governor Youngkin prepared to step down in order to help his party win this fall? Let’s ask the question another way: If the only way the Republicans can win is if Governor Youngkin steps down, is he prepared to do it?

Let me paint the political picture even starker. If Governor Youngkin isn’t followed by a GOP successor, in my view his political career is likely over. But if Sears somehow pulls off one of the biggest upsets in Virginia history, then I believe Youngkin has a bright political future.

In terms of game theory therefore, Governor Youngkin must go for the “burn the boats” option: Resign, go all in for the GOP ticket it, and show he’ll do anything for the GOP team.

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party, a former candidate for mayor of the City of Richmond, and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”