Youngkin The Deficit Budgeteer
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46 responses to “Youngkin The Deficit Budgeteer”
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No doubt Govr Y is doing this to make both sides happy and bringing about unity in Richmond. This will placate the Democratic who like to tax and spend — he’s giving the left half of its formula.
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So it is OK to cut taxes and spend, but not OK to tax and spend?
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Re: Cutting taxes and increasing spending. This is the approach taken in Washington by Mitch McConnell and Trump….
One big difference, Virginia had a huge surplus in 2021, wasn’t it $2.6 Billion? Presumably future surpluses too, so Republicans are giving some of that back, what’s wrong with that, and why isn’t that discussed anywhere? Isn’t that how this is paid for?
As to Trump/McConnell, they correctly argued corporate income taxes were higher here than abroad, and we needed to level the playing field. They argued that increased economics would pay for the corporate and individual rate cuts. In some respect they were right, we did have an economic boom right before the pandemic. Realistically, they likely went too far and we still have red ink as far as they eye can see, and going up as you wade through the ten year CBO forecasts, mostly due to out of control spending, not lack of revenue (though that doesnt help).
So are Democrat’s raising taxes to cut the deficit, nooooooo! They want to exponentially increase spending. Am I the only one who notices that one full year after Biden is President and Dem’s control both Houses, there has been no bill to rescind the 2017 tax rate cuts? Perplexing, but not really.
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Well, in fairness, yes there have been efforts to raise taxes and in effect gut parts of the 2017 bill….But not the whole thing, indeed. Much of it very popular, and in reality federal revenues are exploding, too.
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Yes. Virginia has a big surplus. But Northam accounted for that in his budget proposal. He put in almost a $1 billion extra toward future VRS obligations. He used more than $2 billion in general cash, rather than bonded debt, for capital projects. He put in additional money in the state’s savings accounts. So, almost all that surplus was utilized, much of on one-time expenditures. Youngkin did not propose changing any of that to help pay for his initiatives. Rather, he proposed $3.0 billion reductions in revenue and an additional half billion in spending.
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But what is the budget forecast (deficit or surplus) for 2022, 2023 and 2024? I really don’t know because nobody talks about it. In a quick search, here is a link of Northam’s final budget, which of course has page after page of complexity that mere mortals have little time to try and understand. But in 2021 (page 3), actual revenue exceeded forecast by $2.6 Billion, and total revenue was listed here at $25.6 Billion.
Revenue was forecasted in his budget to be $25.9 Billion in 2022, $25.8 Billion in 2023, and $28.1 Billion in 2024. See pages 11 and 12. If accurate, isn’t Youngkin just giving some of what is expected to be future surpluses back to the taxpayer? I realize revenue is only half the equation, but I am presuming continued surpluses given 2021 results.
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Isn’t it up to Youngkin to show the numbers, not Northam?
It’s one thing to claim there is a surplus – that goes on year after year – but you gotta show that … I would think.
And you need to do that BEFORE your proposals to spend it and give it back also….
There needs to be some transparency and accountability for a budget that depends on anticipated surpluses… especially if those surpluses came from higher receipts of income and sales taxes. If those revenues go down, what happens? What is prudent, “conservative”?
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First of all, of course it is Youngkin’s responsibility, not Northam. The capacity to absorb these tax cuts needs to be demonstrated. Who is to say he is not preparing this? These tax cuts cannot be done by Executive order, it will require legislation, so this is all going to be vetted out and the numbers will come out.
My point in bringing up Northam’s budget is it would appear the forecasted revenues will be very high, and it appears there is capacity to cut taxes, yet many in the media are hysterical about this.
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Good for you in finding this presentation and going though it!
Tracking revenue was not one of my areas. It is a complex area and I would have to go back and do some research in order to answer your question.
Northam did propose using the some of the surplus to “give it back” to taxpayers in the form of eliminating the state sales taxes on groceries and individual rebates. He then proposed other uses for the rest of the surplus as I said in my earlier comment. In the end, his proposed budget for the biennium had appropriated all but about $150 million of the forecasted revenue (that includes the surpluses). Youngkin has proposed giving more back to the taxpayers without specifying where that money should come from.
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Fair point, Youngkin has to demonstrate his numbers work. I would add that I believe what he is proposing is generally consistent with his what he campaigned on.
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Re: Cutting taxes and increasing spending. This is the approach taken in Washington by Mitch McConnell and Trump….
Fascinating! It is the Dems from NY and NJ that want to roll back the SALT caps put in place by Trump. Sounds like a call to cut taxes to me. And … to cut taxes on the wealthy.
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Sigh, what can I say? You are right. The only justification now is now that this provision was the only one in the 2017 bill that resulted in higher taxes and the effect fell disproportionately on NY, NJ, and Calif, which were strongly anti-Trump. So it seemed to be vindictive.
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That cap fell pretty hard on NoVa too! I wonder what the Virginia Congressional delegation have to say about that!
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Yahoo? I sure did…
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Dick’s comments are fair and reasonable. At some point Youngkin will have to say what he wants to cut out of Northam’s proposed budget or cede that task to the General Assembly… with who knows what result.
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I expect Youngkins OWN party in the GA to rein him in.
So much for the claim that Virginia ought to be run like a “business”… yuck yuck…
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Yes, he does have to give guidance, but his staff will likely do it to the committees and try to avoid getting their fingerprints on any of the spending cuts. 🙂
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Oh, the cynicism! But, true.
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So basically, laundered.
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So much for the vaunted fiscal conservatism that Conservatives have traditionally claimed.
Yes, we do have a surplus – that’s a one year rebate – not a year-after-year cut unless you do have both the cuts and the spending accounted for AND provide that to those who have an interest in it – which would be REAL fiscal conservatives and many taxpayers.
Despite all the criticism of the Dems in the GA – they were fiscally responsible to NOT tax and spend. If they actually had, there would have been no surplus !
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It sounds like he might need to reduce the tax cuts by a half-billion or so.
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There is $12 bil. prior to any revenue reforecast in February available to spend or cut taxes in the 2022-24 biennium above the base budget for the current biennium. That does not count the nearly $1 bil. in GF reserved for dubious items from the FY 2021 revenue surplus (such as the $567 mil. super deposit into reserve funds – we already have enough reserves – $3.3 bil.) In other words, there is plenty of money for the GA and Gov to make choices concerning spending and taxes.
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recurring money – that’s the key issue – not current surplus
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I certainly am not one to get into a fight with you over budgets. I would lose.
I will point out that the key words in your comment are “base budget”. That is code in the budget world for the budget adopted for the second year of the biennium by the most recent General Assembly. That is what one starts with in putting together the budget for the next biennium.
Northam made his choices on how to use that extra money for amendments to the base budget. These included such big ticket items as adjusting for increases in medical costs for Medicaid, increasing funding for SOQ, pay raises for teachers, cash rather than bonds for capital projects, paying down the VRS obligations, putting more money in reserves, pay raises for law enforcement, more funding for mental health, and pay raises for state employees. And even though there were buckets of cash around, I can assure you that choices had to be made.
Youngkin seems to want his cake and eat it too. He wants to cut taxes and increase spending, but not make any choices of what to take out of Northam’s budget to make it balance.
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Nor will I argue with Regimbal but I’m pleased he isn’t just arguing to keep and spend it all. 🙂
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Where is all the Biden “infrastructure” money? Seems like that slush fund ought o be able to offset some spending in Virginia. No?
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one time money, right?
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Good point.
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That would show up as NGF. I was dealing with additional GF revenue and expenditures.
From what little I know about the federal infrastructure money, a lot of will be doled out as grants. Youngkin asked for $1 million in GF to set up an office to apply for this money.
Furthermore, the feds likely have not gotten around to writing the rules for dispensing this money, so it would be difficult to tell at this time how much could be used to offset GF spending in Va.
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It _might_ be used to supplant some transportation money – but again it’s one time money not recurring.
It would be irresponsible to change a budget based on one-time money..
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“Youngkin asked for $1 million in GF to set up an office to apply for this money.”
Ya gotta spend it to make it.
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Did others see the proposal to require localities to hold referendums for proposed property tax increases?
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This bad policy proposal is the subject of HB 1010 and SB 620. As far as I can tell, Youngkin did not try to embed it in the budget bill. To do so would probably be going too far for anyone because it has nothing to do with state finances.
Youngkin has endorsed the bills, however.
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This bad policy proposal is the subject of HB 1010 and SB 620. As far as I can tell, Youngkin did not try to embed it in the budget bill. To do so would probably be going too far for anyone because it has nothing to do with state finances.
Youngkin has endorsed the bills, however.
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Tax & Spend Democrats
Borrow & Spend RepublicansEither way, both spend.
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Give the man a kewpie doll…
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Yikes! Can I have the one in the ad below your comment?
“Date My Age!” Hope it pops up on your page too.
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“Does Your Cat Throw Up Often? Try This One Trick.” (Cut him off from Bacon’s Rebellion?)
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Oh too bad! Elke Sommer lookalike.
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I’m still getting the $50,000 wristwatch ad.
It might be working on me, though – last night I dreamed I was having lunch with Antoine Norbert de Patek.
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Uh, he’s dead. I’d worry about that dream.
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I’ll add it to my list.
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Tax & Spend Democrats
Borrow & Spend Republicans
Either way, both spend.
I knowingly left this side of the story for you. 🙂
I do think that the fresh revenue updates due soon will take off some of the pressure. And I have no illusions that all of these are going to pass as proposed. The only one I’ve been focused on is expanding the standard deduction, admittedly a big one. I am no fan of one-time cash rebates. But I felt it worthwhile to get the list of bills and amendments out there.
We are very early in this process. To his credit, he has put in what he promised.
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I realized you left that side to me and I hope that I did not sound as if I were criticizing you for not covering it
“Cutting taxes and increasing spending. This is the approach taken in Washington by Mitch McConnell and Trump. Someone needs to tell the new governor that this does not work in Virginia. ”
Sure it does. First you cut taxes, then you spend what money you do have on the programs you like, and when the programs you don’t like come calling, you say, “Oops, sorry. I gave at the office.”
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