Bacon's Rebellion

Walker Pours Withering Scorn on Rail-to-Dulles

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Chris Walker, a real estate developer active in the Dulles Corridor, was the principal behind a $1 billion proposal to build 122 lane-miles of roadway along the Dulles Toll Road, which he would have financed privately and paid for with congestion tolls. Needless to say, he was not happy when Gov. Timothy M. Kaine scrapped his submission, along with competing proposals, and turned over development of the corridor to the Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority. Under Kaine’s plan, the state will spend some $4 billion to extend heavy rail to Dulles.

Walker has fired off a letter to House Speaker William J. Howell proffering advice on a number of transportation-related matters. Clearly, Walker’s views are colored by his self interest, but that doesn’t necessarily make him wrong. I think he does a good job of clarifying important issues in the debate. His key points are (with my comments in italics):

  1. Stop “playing politics” with transportation. In particular, stop diverting resources to mass transit. He writes: “In the Washington, D.C., area, the Council of Governments official 25-year Metropolitan Planning Organization Constrained Long Range plan, which includes Northern Virginia, allocates $57 billion of the $93 billion available, to transit. This is 60% of the budget to a mode which today serves only 4% of the actual demand, a percentage with is scheduled to decline to 2.5% in 2030. Of this, heavy rail is projected to decline from 2.5% to 1.8%. (Comment: Transit could serve a much larger percentage of the traveling public if the proper zoning were put into place around rail stations, and even more if the price of gas continues climbing.)
  2. Don’t increase the public commitment to Metro. Metro is a fiscal black hole, he says. “If it were run as efficiently as London’s system, with slightly higher fares and outsourcing of most of its functions, it would make money every year and not need operating subsidies.” But it’s not. Metro is a mess. (Comment: Metro is a mess, and Virginia should insist that it clean up its act. But additional support may be unavoidable if service is extended to Dulles.)
  3. Rank all transportation projects by their cost-effectiveness — how much congestion relief do they deliver per dollar spent? (Comment: I totally agree. I’ve made this point over and over: Determine the Return on Investment for every proposed transportation project — roads, rail, intelligent transportation systems, telework, etc. — and fund those with the highest returns. Take the decision away from the politicians!)
  4. For new projects, adopt a “user pays” philosophy to the greatest extent possible. Tolls and gas taxes are preferable to other revenue streams. (Comment: Again, I totally agree. The people who pay for transportation maintenance and improvements should be those who benefit from them.)

Walker reserves special scorn for Kaine’s support of the Rail-to-Dulles extension of the Washington Metro. That project, he says, will absorb half of VDOT’s six-year budget for Northern Virginia while satisfying less than one percent of travel demand.

Why is this happening? Perhaps the [House] conferees could request full disclosure of the Kaine administration. Governor Kaine’s father in law has received six-figure lobbying fees to promote Dulles Rail, despite the fact he is not a registered lobbyist. The same situation applies to John Milliken, former transportation secretary, transition advisor to ex-governor Warner, and Democratic party power broker and lobbyist, again not properly registered. Isn’t the public entitled to know what is going on behind the scenes with these mega-projects?

Read the full text of his letter here.

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3 responses to “Walker Pours Withering Scorn on Rail-to-Dulles”

  1. James Atticus Bowden Avatar
    James Atticus Bowden

    Ancient data point. My mother was the secretary to the Treasurer of METRO (commuted from Leesburg to downtown) in the late 70s to medical retirement around 84. She had horror stories on the political patronage and waste that would curl hair. Doubt how much things have changed in 20 years. But, frankly, dunno.

  2. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    1) Even if you did the best job anywhere Metro will serve less than 6% of travel. What jusstification can there be for spending 60% of our money on serving(pick a number from 1 to 10) percent of the population? Even if “the proper” zoning was put in place and even if people choose to avail themselves the demand will raise prices for Metro housing and decrease prices elsewhere. The delta in cost wil drive more people to drive, even at higher fuel prices. Thereason transit usage is expected to decline as a percentage is not because fewer people will use it, but because auto traffic will increase that much, regardless of what else happens.

    Furthermore, the price of gas isn’t the only issue: it is the price of energy. Higher energy costs mean it will cost much more to make the concrete and steel and mine the tunnels to create Metro to Dulles. And it will cost more to operate it with electricity prices expected to go up substantially. After you take everything into account heavy rail is not nearly as cost effective or efficient as some would have us believe.

    2) This is exactly what Winston and Shirley said: make transit pay its own way and you will have better transit where it really works, which is maybe half of where we have it.

    3) If we measure Metro by that standard we can give up now. After 30 years it should be clear that Metro has not reduced congestion. That does not mean it is not cost effective, but that its benefits lie elsewhere. When we can determine what the costs are and who benefits, then we can figure out what the cost beneit ratio is.

    4) See number three.

    JAB: Funny you should mention it. In their book Winston and Shirley devote an entire chapter to sourcesof inefficiency. Guess what they have to say? The biggest correlations may have little to do with density and much to do with the age of the cosnstituency, who makes the policy and subsidy decisions, and other factors that are otherwise noneconomic variables.

    In fact the greatest social benefit from transit may be related to the income redistribution that results from patronage, along with the political stability that provides. At the same time, public funds are subsidizing bus commuters whose average income exceeded $40,000 in 1990 and also rail commuters whose average income exceeded $50,000 in 1990. On top of that, the excess tax burden caused by inefficient transit takes more income from the poor than it does from the rich.

    See “Equity and Welfare in the Geography of Public Transport Provision”

  3. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    It’s all about enabling redevelopment at Tysons. Who is the biggest landowner that has a CP amendment before the Fairfax County BoS that is contigent on the extension of Metro? Hint: That same landowner opened its facilities to the Kaine for Governor Campaign.

    Which county supervisor works for another major landowner at Tysons? I don’t think this one even needs a hint.

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