The books have been closed on Virginia’s most recent fiscal year and the report was released today. Pick your surplus figure:

• $1.125 billion
• $544 million
• $0.00

The first is the “unreserved fund surplus,” the cash in the bank at the end of the day on June 30 (less the amount needed to pay any actual bills that really were in the drawer.) There was a time when a Governor would be proud to report that the state had a billion bucks in the bank on the first day of the new fiscal year, but no more. Not politically correct.

The second figure — $544 million — is the figure Governor Warner used in his speech and the press will focus on, the amount that General Fund revenue exceeded the official forecast. But of course that ignores the fact that not every dollar appropriated by the Assembly actually gets spent. When the books are closed some money is left over is just about every agency’s budget, and the dribs and drabs add up. But we don’t talk about that anymore, even though it is the soul of good management.

The third figure — $0 — is the new Politically Correct number. There is no surplus. The entire $1.125 billion has already been allocated or designated or earmarked or whatever euphemism you like for “pulled off the table before the taxpayers could see it.” The biggest chunk is going to the “Rainy Day” reserve fund, the second biggest chunk ($300 million) was assumed to be on the way and already spent by the 2005 General Assembly. The rest is parceled out either by law or at the Governor’s discretion. Surplus? What surplus?

In my book (and any accountant’s I suspect), the unreserved fund balance is the surplus. I don’t really understand why they are so shy about using it. Historially the $1.1 billion surplus is not out of line — good, but not out of line. It was less than ten percent and in other years it has exceeded ten percent. I had a chart showing previous end of year balances in a Bacon’s Rebellion Reality Check last September. In some of those years — some I can remember — the final results were equally at odds with the initial forecasts. Adjectives applied to the Warner Administration need to be carefully chosen, since they might apply to some governors from the other party, as well.

Moving off the General Fund’s rosy news, the report on the transportation revenues is very different. Overall revenue in the transportation accounts was up 3.3 percent — far from the 14.8 percent growth in the General Fund. The FY 2005 motor fuels tax collections were up only .4 of one percent, against a forecast of 1.5 percent. Anybody think highway and transit usage grew only four tenths of a percent last year? Prediction: that revenue source will not only not hit its foreast this fiscal year, it might actually decrease from this year’s collections as gas prices continue to climb.

But it’s only transportation. Barely rated a mention in the Governor’s speech and Secretary Bennett’s presentation.