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4 responses to “The Evolution of the Burbs”

1. 

   Tysons Engineer

   May 29, 2014

   I took a look at strip malls, parking lots, and warehouse spaces within 2 miles of metro stations alone in Fairfax a month ago. There was more than 1000 acres of developable land that would have zero impact on any suburban residential neighborhoods fitting that criteria. 1000 acres of developable land, even with arbitrary 6-story maximums and TH mix (50/50), could provide more than 30,000 housing units without much ado, ~enough for 75,000 people to live in.

   This is just land that is pretty much waste right now, just in fairfax, just within 2 miles of a metro station. The return of towns is really only just beginning, and the housing starts prove it. The types of construction are heavily leaning towards infill, as opposed to green field. That trend doesn’t look to be ending anytime soon, the only question will be, will new towns(former burbs) also understand that its not just 20 somethings that will choose to live there. When 20 somethings become 30 and 40 somethings, they will be more likely to remain in those areas than prior generations, and need housing mixes that also accommodate those choices without losing out on the benefits they enjoyed. Townhomes and 3br condo/apartments are just as important as getting college grads. Arlington shows that is the case.

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2. 

   larryg

   May 29, 2014

   What I might agree with – is an evolution but to what, I’m not smart enough to know… and I’m not sure even “smart” folks really know either.

   Let me note a couple of things.

   1. – VDOT is putting in HOT Lanes from NoVa to Fredericksburg and both VDOT and the toll road operator – believe that congestion tolling still has a “future”.

   2. – Fredericksburg, Va – a true urban enclave , an historic old town at limits of the tidal Rappahannock. I’d estimate at least 50 standard blocks of urban residential/commercial – and there is more development going on inside on the town limits – but it’s not connected to the existing core and it’s classic cul-de-sac suburbia style single-family detached … whose occupants chose the city over the two counties because they are “closer” – including to the VRE commuter rail station.

   3. – Spotsylvania is building a VRE station SOUTH of Fredericksburg and the area around the station – HAS been rezoned to multi-use and 8du and higher density – but the real land boom is the area that radiates out from that station where over 2000 standard cul-de-saced single family detached are going to be built.

   4. – The local I-95 interchange is going to be upgraded to expand it’s capacity to handle more commuters –

   5. – At Spotsylvania CH – a crossroads of the Civil War with a minuscule historic district – probably less than 2-3 dozen truly historic urban structures, a local developer was convinced to build a spec New Urban development – which has sidewalks, a wonderful gazebo that sports bands all through the summer, floor level businesses with upper level residential apartments. The county put up a building on the property..and there is a bistro and a few other businesses but the real development from the same developer is about a quarter mile away (where the new sewer lines are) – 200-300 new homes (and apartments).

   5. – we are seeing an almost equal amount of apartments being built in our area – workforce housing, upscale apartments for the retired and those who got out of their underwater mortgages and are considering rental/condo life rather than a mortgaged single family dwelling..

   so.. I agree.. we are seeing changes… but I don’t see the suburbs going away at all… at least not 50 miles south of NoVa.

   Finally, if you really want to see major changes – either take away the home mortgage deduction or scale it back to one house – capped at a median price…

   I believe that would have a far more profound effect on suburbia that other things.

   and it’s not like we don’t already have that kind of thing in the tax code to start with.

   for instance, you cannot deduct health care expenses until they exceed 10% of your AGI…

   just make the home mortgage deduction – similar.. Not only would it change the way we develop but it would help reduce the deficit and debt.

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3. 

   Darrell

   May 29, 2014

   I’ve kept hearing about this great urban renaissance for 30 years now. Billions in taxpayer supplied incentives have gone into developer pockets, and in most cases the cities are in the same condition they were after the real money making workers beat feet to the suburbs. What may seem appealing in NoVa is not going to happen in cities that don’t have federal supplied deep pockets.

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4. Today’s Headlines | Streetsblog USA

   May 30, 2014

   […] “End of the Suburbs” Author Leigh Gallagher Gives TED Talk (via Bacon’s Rebellion) […]

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