Storm Surge
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9 responses to “Storm Surge”
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The thing that Dominion can’t do anything about is perhaps the same thing that those who feared increased storms missed – which is not the wind but the rains – and flooding… far higher and longer than what we were expecting.
So in NC and VA – it wasn’t the wind damage that delayed getting the grid back on line – it was the fact that flooding kept crews from getting to where they needed to be to repair…
So we’re now hearing that we’re getting “rare” 500-year floods – the problem being that they seem to be more and more common….
and the flooding is apparently now occurring in places that were never designated as floodplains…and folks don’t have flood insurance – and the power companies themselves had not built the grid infrastructure in places they did not think would flood… when perhaps they would have done differently if they thought flooding was likely and now.. will have to. You can’t repair power lines if you cannot get to them.
I would expect at some point that flood maps will be updated to reflect the reality and I expect those updated maps will not be good news for anyone whether homeowners, local governments or public/private entities that maintain infrastructure…
I guess we’re going to see some real applications of Bastiat’s broken window theory, eh?
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From El Sidd:
Larrytheg, having gotten into some seriously tangled weeds with the reference to “broken window theory,” needs to elucidate/educate us, not-so-well informed folks.
Is he referring to Frederic Bastiat’s (French) mid 19th century economic theory?
Or the academic theory proposed by James Q. Wilson and George Kelling in the early 1980s (US)-dealing with inner city decay, social disorder and in genera, a criminal/social theory of urban decline?
How do either relate to outdated flood maps? Eh?
ELSIDD
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Looking forward to the answer on Bastiat, but meanwhile:
I live near a suburban stream valley. That’s hardly unusual; but pursuant to that fact, and in furtherance of the Chesapeake Bay Act and the State’s floodplain protection bureaucracy, an extraordinary percentage of homes in Fairfax County (it seems like 10% though I really don’t know) sit on lots which are touched by floodplain building restrictions and in some cases mandatory flood insurance requirements. It does seem sometimes that this extraordinary retroactive limitation of property rights has been foisted upon us without any rational connection to the real historical incidence of flooding but with an eye to the empires being built by petty bureaucrats who must review everything I and my neighbors wish to do upon our land in terms of flood plain compatibility. And take months and sometimes require demanding engineering studies to do so.
I’d like to think that’s simply the price of progress, in the name of avoiding just what Larry is talking about: little towns built alongside streams and rivers all over America which have encroached upon the naturally wide, flat areas created by past floods due to past government indifference (or corruption) and are now also threatened by seemingly more frequent floods due to seemingly changing weather patterns. As Larry says, “I would expect at some point that flood maps will be updated to reflect the reality and I expect those updated maps will not be good news for anyone.”
But we cannot erase such past mistakes overnight. Meanwhile, people will continue to live in floodplains and power lines must reach them.
So what are you proposing, Larry? Forbid the power company to restore its lines in such areas whenever damaged? Or do the best it can to restore power and rebuild infrastructure even to houses that shouldn’t be there in the first place?
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I’m saying – the power company will be re-thinking where their distribution lines are – so that when hundreds, thousands are without power, they can get to those major lines and repair them.
that will be moving those distribution lines to higher ground… away from the flood prone places…
the folks who are in the flood plains will still be connected but they won’t be getting power even after the hundreds and thousands of others are restored….
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“Claude-Frédéric Bastiat (French: [klod fʁedeʁik bastja]; 29 June 1801[1] – 24 December 1850) was a French economist and author who was a prominent member of the French Liberal School. He developed the economic concept of opportunity cost, and introduced the Parable of the Broken Window. ”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Bastiat
” The parable of the broken window was introduced by Frédéric Bastiat in his 1850 essay Ce qu’on voit et ce qu’on ne voit pas (That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Not Seen) to illustrate why destruction, and the money spent to recover from destruction, is not actually a net benefit to society. ”
so maybe some confusion between “theory” and “parable”
but the point is that if we are going to see increased flooding over and above what we thought we would have – we’re going to see MORE destruction – AND INCREASED costs associated with moving existing infrastructure, flood-proofing other infrastructure, more flood-plain designation from new flood maps which, in turn will adversely affect the value and suitability of existing buildings and planned ones.
In other words – if we are going to see expanded flood maps – that represent a new reality of storms that dump far more water and, in turn, result in much higher, wider, longer duration flooding – it’s going to be far, far more costly that before and that’s going to have serious financial impacts on property owners, insurance, governments – both the value of what they tax and their costs to mitigate – as well as the National Subsidized flood insurance program.
Capische?
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” Scientists Say Expect More 1,000-Year Events Like Louisiana Flood
Louisiana’s devastating rainfall was the state’s second “1,000-year” flood this year”Starting with Hurricane Sandy and continuing through 2016 – we have had about half dozen 500 and 1000 year floods – most of them not from hurricanes but from storms that dumped far more rain that had been seen – ever.
2015 Louisiana flood
The 2015 Louisiana floods took place during June 2015. The Red River of the South flooded parts of northern Louisiana. The Red River reached its highest level in over 70 years during the floods.[46]2015 Missouri floods
The storm system was responsible for heavy rain that caused severe flooding in 13 states, with Missouri being especially impacted.[14][15] Parts of the state were hit with over 10 in (0.25 m) of heavy rainfall.[6]In Union, Missouri, the Bourbeuse River rose to 34.22 ft (10.43 m), above the preceding record of 33.79 ft (10.30 m) which occurred on December 5, 1982.
More than 180 roads, including portions of Interstates 44, 55, and 70, and several bridges were closed.[20][21] The Meramec River, near St. Louis, crested 2 ft (0.61 m) above its previous record height, inundating nearby communities
April 2016 Houston floods
In April 2016, Houston, Texas was flooded with over one foot of rain in 24 hours.[51]May 2016 Oklahoma floods
The 2016 Oklahoma floods set precipitation records in both Texas[52] and Oklahoma.[53]June 2016 West Virginia floods
The flooding was the result of 8 to 10 inches of rain falling over a period of 12 hours, resulting in a flood tied for seventh among Deadliest floods in West Virginia historyJuly 2016 Maryland floods
On the evening of July 30, a severe thunderstorm moved into the area of Ellicott City where it dumped an estimated 6 inches (15 cm) of rain in two hours. The flash flood that resulted inflicted severe damage to the area primarily on Main Street.2016 Louisiana floods
Rainfall rates of up to 2–3 inches (5.1–7.6 cm) an hour were reported in the most deluged areas. Totals exceeded nearly 2 feet (61 cm) in some areas as a result of the system remaining stationary.[3] Accumulations peaked at 31.39 inches (797 mm) in Watson, just northeast of Baton Rouge.[4]
these rainfalls are some of the biggest ever seen – they’re classified as 100, 500, and 1000 year floods.
that’s going to cause flood maps to be redrawn – already has – and there is actually opposition to updating the maps because of impacts on the value of property.
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another interesting aspect of the “parable” is this idea:
” It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented.”
which conjures up the issue of choices we all , including govt, make for current spending….. some folks use their money for lottery tickets and Kings Dominion instead of addressing their flood risk.. or insurance for flooding … and govts also make choices about priorities – about proactive spending for flood-proofing verses other wants/needs…
and both – individuals and govts – rely on/expect the Federal govt to help pay for flooding damage even when they had choices prior – and so the Feds add to deficit and debt in trying to pay for flood damage that may well have been made less costly had individuals and govts – addressed the risk and the cost rather than making other choices.
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From El Sidd:
Larrytheg. Did you mean “capisce”, Italian for “understand”?
I still do not understand, no matter how many Wikipedia cut and pastes you include.Yes, improving services to users will obviously involve increased costs to users. It does not take an obscure “theory” or a “parable” known to few, to illustrate the fact.
How such services are developed and delivered is a worthy subject for a discussion.
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not sure what is meant by “services”… perhaps it can be explained?
we’re talking about land – and it’s value… and the impacts to that value if it is reclassified as flood plain… not services…
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